Watershed Vulnerability to Climate Change on the Lolo National Forest

Bull Trout, Water Supply and Forest Infrastructure Goal: To help prioritize restoration efforts on the LNF

Authors Alisa Wade, Ph.D. Christine Brick, Clark Fork Coalition Scott Spaulding, USFS R1 Traci Sylte, USFS Lolo National Forest Joan , USFS R1

The LNF chose 3 resources for assessment:

Aquatics (Bull Trout and Pearlshell Mussel)

Water Supply

Forest infrastructure (roads, trails, recreation sites) Vulnerability = f(Exposure, Sensitivity) (of resource) (to climate) (inherent)

Study Area:

LNF plus lands between & Rock Creek headwaters Developing the Metrics: Resource Area: Bull trout, water supply or infrastructure Exposure Sensitivity Reduced Earlier Diversions Summer Runoff Stressor Flow

USFS-VIC USFS-VIC DNRC records & Data Mean Center VIC Mean

Summer Flow Summer Flow Flow Mass

Method/ Length Weighted Mean Diversion flow as % # days percent of VIC Mean Metric reduction earlier Summer Flow

Index Combined Flow Exposure Sensitivity Index

Vulnerability Water Supply Vulnerability Bull Trout Metrics

Exposure Sensitivity • NorWest August • Patch size/occupied mean temperature habitat

• Scouring winter high • Fish barriers flow (USFS-VIC) • Roads (sediment loading) • Mean summer low • Low channel complexity flow (USFS-VIC) • Water diversions • Channel confinement • Presence of Brook trout

Introduction to LNF Assessing Vulnerability Our Approach Key Lessons Methods:  Metrics & indices placed in 5 bins using natural breaks algorithm  Metrics combined using geometric means  Results are RELATIVE within the study area

Vulnerability defined as: Sensitivity bin 1 2 3 4 5

1 Low Exposure 2 Moderate Moderate Exposure, 3 Exposure, High Sensitivity

Low Sensitivity Exposure 4 High Exposure, High Exposure, 5 Low Sensitivity High Sensitivity Bull Trout Exposure Metric/Indices: Bull Trout Sensitivity Metrics: Bull Trout Vulnerability Results: Water Supply Metrics

Exposure Sensitivity

• Mean summer low • Water Diversions flow (USFS-VIC)

• Flow Timing (USFS- VIC Center of Flow Mass)

Water Supply Exposure Metrics: Water Supply Sensitivity Metric: Water Supply Vulnerability: Management Implications or How to use this analysis:

• Identification of data gaps

• Development of monitoring programs

• Integration with existing prioritization programs

• Identify strategies to increase resilience of the resource where it is likely to have the most benefit

• Development of education and outreach materials

• Collaboration with other agencies and local communities Questions?

[email protected] http://www.fs.usda.gov/main/lolo/workingtogether