Watershed Vulnerability to Climate Change on the Lolo National Forest Bull Trout, Water Supply and Forest Infrastructure Goal: To help prioritize restoration efforts on the LNF Authors Alisa Wade, Ph.D. Christine Brick, Clark Fork Coalition Scott Spaulding, USFS R1 Traci Sylte, USFS Lolo National Forest Joan Louie, USFS R1 The LNF chose 3 resources for assessment: Aquatics (Bull Trout and Pearlshell Mussel) Water Supply Forest infrastructure (roads, trails, recreation sites) Vulnerability = f(Exposure, Sensitivity) (of resource) (to climate) (inherent) Study Area: LNF plus lands between & Rock Creek headwaters Developing the Metrics: Resource Area: Bull trout, water supply or infrastructure Exposure Sensitivity Reduced Earlier Diversions Stressor Summer Runoff Flow USFS-VIC USFS-VIC DNRC records & Data Mean Center VIC Mean Summer Flow Summer Flow Flow Mass Method/ Length Weighted Mean Diversion flow as % # days percent of VIC Mean Metric reduction earlier Summer Flow Index Combined Flow Exposure Sensitivity Index Vulnerability Water Supply Vulnerability Bull Trout Metrics Exposure Sensitivity • NorWest August • Patch size/occupied mean temperature habitat • Scouring winter high • Fish barriers flow (USFS-VIC) • Roads (sediment loading) • Mean summer low • Low channel complexity flow (USFS-VIC) • Water diversions • Channel confinement • Presence of Brook trout Introduction to LNF Assessing Vulnerability Our Approach Key Lessons Methods: Metrics & indices placed in 5 bins using natural breaks algorithm Metrics combined using geometric means Results are RELATIVE within the study area Vulnerability defined as: Sensitivity bin 1 2 3 4 5 1 Low Exposure 2 Moderate Moderate Exposure, 3 Exposure, High Sensitivity Low Sensitivity Exposure 4 High Exposure, High Exposure, 5 Low Sensitivity High Sensitivity Bull Trout Exposure Metric/Indices: Bull Trout Sensitivity Metrics: Bull Trout Vulnerability Results: Water Supply Metrics Exposure Sensitivity • Mean summer low • Water Diversions flow (USFS-VIC) • Flow Timing (USFS- VIC Center of Flow Mass) Water Supply Exposure Metrics: Water Supply Sensitivity Metric: Water Supply Vulnerability: Management Implications or How to use this analysis: • Identification of data gaps • Development of monitoring programs • Integration with existing prioritization programs • Identify strategies to increase resilience of the resource where it is likely to have the most benefit • Development of education and outreach materials • Collaboration with other agencies and local communities Questions? [email protected] http://www.fs.usda.gov/main/lolo/workingtogether .