The Process of Revolutionary Protest: Development and Democracy in the Tunisian Revolution Christopher Barrie∗ July 30, 2021 Abstract Revolutionary protest rarely begins life as democratic or revolutionary. Instead, it grows in a process of positive feedback, incorporating new constituencies and generating new demands. If protest is not revolutionary at its onset, theory should reflect this and be able to explain the endogenous emergence of democratic demands. In this article, I combine multiple data sources on the 2010-11 Tunisian Revolution, including survey data, an original event catalogue, and field interviews. I show that the correlates of protest occurrence and participation change significantly during the uprising. Using the Tunisian case as a theory-building exercise, I argue that the formation of protest coalitions is essential, rather than incidental, to democratic revolution. ∗Christopher Barrie is Lecturer in Computational Sociology at the University of Edinburgh. Correspon- dence to:
[email protected]. 1 1 Introduction Mass mobilization is now a central pillar in in the theoretical and empirical scholarship on democratization. But while political transition to democracy can be marked in time—by the ouster of an authoritarian or the holding of elections—mass mobilization constitutes a pro- cess. A large body of empirical work in the democratization literature nonetheless treats revolutionary protest, or revolutionary protest participation, as discrete, unitary events amenable to cross-sectional forms of analysis. A separate body of work, particular to the formal modelling tradition, incorporates elements of endogeneity and process but assumes common thresholds governing participation dynamics, thereby again conceiving of revolu- tionary protest as unitary. In this article I propose that this ontology is wrongheaded; protest is rarely revolutionary at its onset and the goals and orienting demands of protest waves can be generated in the context of contention.