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Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces And Catalogue no. 91-620-X ISBN 978-1-100-23321-5 Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions by Nora Bohnert, Jonathan Chagnon, Simon Coulombe, Patrice Dion and Laurent Martel Release date: May 26, 2015 How to obtain more information For information about this product or the wide range of services and data available from Statistics Canada, visit our website, www.statcan.gc.ca. You can also contact us by email at [email protected] telephone, from Monday to Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., at the following toll-free numbers: • Statistical Information Service 1-800-263-1136 • National telecommunications device for the hearing impaired 1-800-363-7629 • Fax line 1-877-287-4369 Depository Services Program • Inquiries line 1-800-635-7943 • Fax line 1-800-565-7757 Standards of service to the public Standard table symbols Statistics Canada is committed to serving its clients in a prompt, The following symbols are used in Statistics Canada reliable and courteous manner. To this end, Statistics Canada has publications: developed standards of service that its employees observe. To . not available for any reference period obtain a copy of these service standards, please contact Statistics .. not available for a specific eferencer period Canada toll-free at 1-800-263-1136. The service standards ... not applicable are also published on www.statcan.gc.ca under “About us” > 0 true zero or a value rounded to zero “The agency” > “Providing services to Canadians.” 0s value rounded to 0 (zero) where there is a meaningful distinction between true zero and the value that was rounded p preliminary Note of appreciation r revised Canada owes the success of its statistical system to a x suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements long-standing partnership between Statistics Canada, the of the Statistics Act citizens of Canada, its businesses, governments and other E use with caution institutions. Accurate and timely statistical information could not F too unreliable to be published be produced without their continued co-operation and goodwill. * significantly different from reference category (p < 0.05) Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada © Minister of Industry, 2015 All rights reserved. Use of this publication is governed by the Statistics Canada Open Licence Agreement. An HTML version is also available. Cette publication est aussi disponible en français. 1 Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions Report written by Nora Bohnert, Jonathan Chagnon, Simon Coulombe, Patrice Dion and Laurent Martel Statistics Canada — Catalogue no. 91-620-X 2 Table of contents Table of contents Preface......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 4 Chapter 1: Statistics Canada’s cohort-component population projection model .................................. 5 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 5 The cohort-component model ............................................................................................................ 5 Relationship between the Population Estimates Program and the projections .............................. 7 Algorithm of the model ........................................................................................................................ 9 Conclusion......................................................................................................................................... 11 References ........................................................................................................................................ 11 Chapter 2: Opinion Survey on Future Demographic Trends ................................................................... 12 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 12 Examples from other statistical agencies........................................................................................12 Survey objectives and design ........................................................................................................... 13 Method of dissemination .................................................................................................................. 14 Survey results ................................................................................................................................... 15 Conclusion........................................................................................................................................ 16 Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................... 17 References ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 3: Projection of fertility ................................................................................................................ 18 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 18 Fertility trends .................................................................................................................................... 18 Survey results ................................................................................................................................... 24 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 25 Fertility of non-permanent residents ................................................................................................ 28 Assumptions..................................................................................................................................... 30 References ....................................................................................................................................... 34 Chapter 4: Projection of mortality ............................................................................................................ 36 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 36 Mortality trends .................................................................................................................................. 36 Survey results ................................................................................................................................... 41 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 42 Assumptions..................................................................................................................................... 47 References ....................................................................................................................................... 50 Chapter 5: Projection of international immigration ................................................................................. 52 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 52 Immigration trends ........................................................................................................................... 52 Immigration policy ............................................................................................................................ 54 Public opinion and media narratives regarding immigration .......................................................... 55 Survey results ................................................................................................................................... 56 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 57 Assumptions..................................................................................................................................... 59 References ....................................................................................................................................... 61 Chapter 6: Projection of emigration ......................................................................................................... 63 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 63 Emigration components ................................................................................................................... 63 References ....................................................................................................................................... 65 Chapter 7: Projection of non-permanent residents ................................................................................66
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