Catalogue no. 91-620-X ISBN 978-1-100-23321-5 Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions by Nora Bohnert, Jonathan Chagnon, Simon Coulombe, Patrice Dion and Laurent Martel Release date: May 26, 2015 How to obtain more information For information about this product or the wide range of services and data available from Statistics Canada, visit our website, www.statcan.gc.ca. 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Cette publication est aussi disponible en français. 1 Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions Report written by Nora Bohnert, Jonathan Chagnon, Simon Coulombe, Patrice Dion and Laurent Martel Statistics Canada — Catalogue no. 91-620-X 2 Table of contents Table of contents Preface......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 4 Chapter 1: Statistics Canada’s cohort-component population projection model .................................. 5 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 5 The cohort-component model ............................................................................................................ 5 Relationship between the Population Estimates Program and the projections .............................. 7 Algorithm of the model ........................................................................................................................ 9 Conclusion......................................................................................................................................... 11 References ........................................................................................................................................ 11 Chapter 2: Opinion Survey on Future Demographic Trends ................................................................... 12 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 12 Examples from other statistical agencies........................................................................................12 Survey objectives and design ........................................................................................................... 13 Method of dissemination .................................................................................................................. 14 Survey results ................................................................................................................................... 15 Conclusion........................................................................................................................................ 16 Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................... 17 References ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 3: Projection of fertility ................................................................................................................ 18 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 18 Fertility trends .................................................................................................................................... 18 Survey results ................................................................................................................................... 24 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 25 Fertility of non-permanent residents ................................................................................................ 28 Assumptions..................................................................................................................................... 30 References ....................................................................................................................................... 34 Chapter 4: Projection of mortality ............................................................................................................ 36 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 36 Mortality trends .................................................................................................................................. 36 Survey results ................................................................................................................................... 41 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 42 Assumptions..................................................................................................................................... 47 References ....................................................................................................................................... 50 Chapter 5: Projection of international immigration ................................................................................. 52 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 52 Immigration trends ........................................................................................................................... 52 Immigration policy ............................................................................................................................ 54 Public opinion and media narratives regarding immigration .......................................................... 55 Survey results ................................................................................................................................... 56 Methodology ...................................................................................................................................... 57 Assumptions..................................................................................................................................... 59 References ....................................................................................................................................... 61 Chapter 6: Projection of emigration ......................................................................................................... 63 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 63 Emigration components ................................................................................................................... 63 References ....................................................................................................................................... 65 Chapter 7: Projection of non-permanent residents ................................................................................66