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National Population Projections National Population Projections Actuarial Study No. 4 May 2005 Office of the Chief Actuary Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions 16th Floor, Kent Square Building 255 Albert Street Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0H2 Facsimile: (613) 990-9900 E-mail address: [email protected] An electronic version of this report is available on our Web site: www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 4 NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ACTUARY TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. Executive Summary............................................................................................................. 7 A. Purpose of the Study ..................................................................................................... 7 B. Main Findings............................................................................................................... 7 C. General Conclusions................................................................................................... 10 II. Introduction........................................................................................................................ 11 A. Purpose........................................................................................................................ 11 B. Scope........................................................................................................................... 11 III. Results ................................................................................................................................. 12 A. Size of the Population ................................................................................................. 12 B. Fertility, Mortality and Migration............................................................................... 14 C. Age Structure.............................................................................................................. 17 IV. Best-Estimate Assumptions............................................................................................... 24 V. Starting Population............................................................................................................ 24 VI. Fertility................................................................................................................................ 25 A. Age-Specific, Total and Cohort Fertility Rates .......................................................... 25 B. Sex at Birth .................................................................................................................28 VII. Mortality ............................................................................................................................. 29 A. Historical Trends in Life Expectancy ......................................................................... 29 B. Future Improvements in Age-Specific Mortality Rates.............................................. 30 C. Life Expectancies........................................................................................................ 32 D. Comparison of Aging Indicators Between the G8 Countries ..................................... 41 VIII. Migration ............................................................................................................................ 44 A. Immigration and Emigration....................................................................................... 44 B. Short and Long-Term Migration Assumptions........................................................... 44 C. Age and Sex Distribution............................................................................................ 46 IX. Sensitivity Tests.................................................................................................................. 49 A. Fertility........................................................................................................................ 49 B. Mortality ..................................................................................................................... 53 C. Migration..................................................................................................................... 59 X. Appendices.......................................................................................................................... 65 A. Methodology............................................................................................................... 65 B. Projected Population of Canada by Age and Sex, 2003-2075.................................... 66 C. Data Availability......................................................................................................... 68 D. Bibliography ............................................................................................................... 68 E. Acknowledgements..................................................................................................... 68 | 3 ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 4 NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ACTUARY LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1 Population of Canada by Sex...................................................................................... 12 Table 2 Total Fertility Rate per Woman and Mean Age at Motherhood................................. 14 Table 3 Life Expectancy at Birth and Mean Age at Death ...................................................... 15 Table 4 Net Migration by Age and Sex ................................................................................... 16 Table 5 Proportions of Net Migration by Age and Sex........................................................... 16 Table 6 Components of Population Growth ............................................................................ 17 Table 7 Male Population of Canada by Age............................................................................ 19 Table 8 Female Population of Canada by Age ........................................................................ 19 Table 9 Total Population of Canada by Age............................................................................ 20 Table 10 Proportions of Total Population of Canada by Age.................................................... 20 Table 11 Best-Estimate Demographic Assumptions ................................................................. 24 Table 12 Total and Cohort Fertility Rates by Age and Calendar Year...................................... 26 Table 13 Cohort Fertility Rates by Age and Year of Birth of Woman...................................... 27 Table 14 Annual Mortality Improvement Rates ........................................................................ 31 Table 15 Mortality Rates............................................................................................................ 31 Table 16 Life Expectancies, without improvements after the year shown ................................ 33 Table 17 Life Expectancies, with improvements after the year shown ..................................... 33 Table 18 Population Reaching Older Ages, Numbers and Proportions..................................... 39 Table 19 Deaths by Age Group, Numbers and Proportions ...................................................... 40 Table 20 Mean Age at Death ..................................................................................................... 40 Table 21 Evolution of Age Range in Which Given Percentage of Deaths are Expected to Occur....................................................................................................................... 40 Table 22 Comparison of Aging Indicators Between the G8 Countries ..................................... 43 Table 23 Evolution of Migration by Component....................................................................... 46 Table 24 Net Migration by Sex.................................................................................................. 48 Table 25 Total Fertility Rates and Mean Ages at Motherhood Under Varying Fertility Assumptions................................................................................................................ 50 Table 26 Population by Age (thousands) and Relative Proportions Under Varying Fertility Assumptions.................................................................................................. 51 Table 27 Dependency Ratios Under Varying Fertility Assumptions ........................................ 53 Table 28 Life Expectancies Under Varying Mortality Assumptions, without mortality improvements after each year shown............................................. 54 Table 29 Life Expectancies Under Varying Mortality Assumptions, with mortality improvements after each year shown.................................................. 55 Table 30 Population by Age (thousands) and Relative Proportions Under Varying Mortality Assumptions................................................................................................ 57 Table 31 Dependency Ratios Under Varying Mortality Assumptions ...................................... 59 Table 32 Net Migration Under Varying Migration Assumptions.............................................. 61 Table 33 Population by Age (thousands) and Relative Proportions Under Varying Migration Assumptions............................................................................................... 62 Table 34 Dependency Ratios Under Varying Migration Assumptions ..................................... 64 4 | ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 4 NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ACTUARY
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