www.africa-confidential.com 12 January 2001 Vol 42 No 1 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL NORTH AFRICA 3 AFRICA/WEST AFRICA Industry and Islamism The centre isn’t holding Pressure for accountability and devolution of power is at the root of Violence will not end quickly in Algeria; President Bouteflika will many of the continent’s conflicts continue to seek the welcome In the evening of 7 January in Accra, four West African heads of state were toasting the inauguration of abroad that is increasingly lacking at home. Morocco’s king will crack the newly elected Ghanaian President, John Agyekum Kufuor. At the same time across the border down on Islamists and drag his some 300 kilometres to the west, a group of Ivorian soldiers was plotting to overthrow President Laurent feet in Western Sahara. In Egypt, Gbagbo’s government in Abidjan. After seeing his guests off, Kufuor launched into a round of talks with politics may revive though less so foreign bankers and diplomats about economic reform. In Abidjan, the Ivorian putschists were outgunned in Tunisia; Libya seeks glory on by Gbagbo’s forces. Four decades earlier, Ghana’s Independence leader, , bet his the international stage. Ivorian counterpart, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, that his political strategy would prevail. Nkrumah was overthrown in 1966; Houphouët-Boigny died in his bed in 1993. Yet today Ghana is much the more stable EAST AFRICA 4 country, with brighter economic prospects. Thus forecasting trends and events in Africa is only slightly less problematic than generalising from Mixed fortunes the continent’s extraordinary particulars. The late Jo Slovo, formerly Chief of Staff of Mkhonto we As President Moi seeks security in Sizwe, the military wing of the African National Congress, was frequently asked how long it would take retirement, President Museveni to overthrow the apartheid regime. He would reply that he had predicted at the time of the Soweto faces his first electoral challenge. students’ rising in 1976 that he would give it five years. And ten years later, he said, he saw no reason Zanzibar crises plague Tanzania to change his mind. while Eritrea and Ethiopia investigate peace. In , the In the Slovo spirit, there are several hardy perennials in Africa’s forecasting lexicon. For about a Islamist government will hold its decade many newspapers, this one included, have predicted the imminent departure from office of hard line while maximising its ’s President Daniel arap Moi. Now, with the end of Moi’s constitutional last term due in 2002, campaign to show it’s doing the many Kenyans wonder whether he will carve out a new political role for himself after that date. The other opposite. In Somalia, war will much predicted departure is that of Zimbabwe’s President : we still believe that will be decrease. choreographed this year by the Zimbabwe African National Union hierarchy. And we can safely predict, in the spirit of Slovo, that the World Bank will say that another African economic recovery is under way. CENTRAL AFRICA 5 It forecasts economic growth across Africa at 4.5 per cent this year, compared to 3.5 per cent it forecast for growth last year. Congo imbroglio War will still dominate the region, Trade and market access spilling over onto neighbours. The Bank will be on firmer ground when it turns its attention to trade issues. Trade and market access Signs of change in Congo-K are will overshadow the debt cancellation campaign this year. Since 1970, Africa’s agricultural exports have pressure for other countries to pull out their troops and a growing lost some US$70 billion a year in market share through inefficiency and Western protectionism. feeling that the departure of Agricultural subsidies in rich countries cost some $300 bn. a year or about 100 times current aid levels President Kabila might help end to Africa. Coordinating through the Economic Commission for Africa and the African Development the war. Bank, African trade and finance ministries are working on a common position to promote at the World Trade Organisation. Already this year, some European Commission officials have proposed tariff-free SOUTHERN AFRICA 6 access for agricultural exports from the world’s 50 poorest countries (most of them African) - much to the horror of European farmers. Revolving doors As African governments and the United Nations belatedly hammer out the message on HIV-AIDS, campaigners for cheaper drugs - such as the HIV retrovirals and anti-malarials - will take centre stage, Presidents will try to remain in power but in Angola, oil and backed by economists such as Harvard’s Jeffrey Sachs and Ghana’s former Finance Minister, Kwesi diamonds will feed the war. Botchwey. Environmentalists will look more closely at Africa on such matters as trials of genetically modified crops and the continued unregulated dumping of toxic waste. Though a continent widely seen as the world’s most marginalised, Africa can still draw the attention POINTERS 8 of world leaders such as the United States’ outgoing President Bill Clinton and Britain’s Prime Minister Tony Blair. Africa could see some positive results if the Organisation of African Unity’s leadership Africa, Malawi, São triumvirate - Algeria’s , Nigeria’s and South Africa’s Tomé & Príncipe & - can tap into such connections on issues such as tariffs, debt and drug prices. Ghana Many of Mbeki and Obasanjo’s diplomatic efforts are spent countering what Mbeki calls ‘populist pessimism’ about Africa. West Africa, seen as one of the most politically unstable regions, shows the How high the moon? Third term lucky; big brother; jobs for Jak. difficulty of their task. In December, Ghana organised elections in which the results were not seriously 12 January 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 1

MAURITANIA MOROCCO ALGERIA TUNISIA LIBYA EGYPT Pop: 2.5m, GNP: $1,033m, Debt: $2,589m Pop: 27.8m, GNP: $34,421m, Debt: $20,687m Pop: 29.9m, GNP: $46,389m, Debt: $30,665m Pop: 9.3m, GNP: $19,193m, Debt: $11,078m Pop: 5.3m, GDP: $23,452m , Debt: $7,000m Pop: 61.4m, GNP: $79,185m, Debt: $31,964m Support for Ould Daddah and Economic stagnation and New wave of Islamist attacks President Ben Ali s strong Oil-fired European business The ruling National Democratic his banned opposition party resurgent Islamists will test threaten credibilty of President economic management risks rush to Tripoli; ending of Party now holds only 170 of the grows but President Taya won t Mohammed VI s reforming Abdelaziz Bouteflika s strategy eclipse by cronyism, human sanctions strengthen Gaddafi; 444 seats in parliament; lively face elections until 2003 credentials; thaw with Algeria but opening to foreign capital rights abuses and state Lockerbie result leaves him political scene in prospect with slows continues censorship unscathed moves to free media and politics from state control SENEGAL Pop: 9.0m, GNP: $4,683m, Debt: $3,861m WESTERN SAHARA MALI BURKINA FASO NIGER President Wade has problems Pop: 0.3, GNP: na, Debt: na Pop: 10.6m, GNP: $2,646m, Debt: $3,202m Pop: 10.7m, GNP: $2,575m, Debt: $1,399m Pop: 10.1m, GNP: $2,023m, Debt: $1,659m SUDAN with minority government and Polisario will have to fight Campaigning for 2002 elections Threat of sanctions after President Tandja reforms civil Pop: 28.3m, GNP: $8,224m, Debt: $16,843m Casamance; parliamentary inertia and Moroccan lobbying opens with ex-military leader President Blaise Compaor s service, pushes rural Islamist government will persist elections in first half of year to get the referendum back on General Toure ahead; plans to government named in arms Ð development and closer links in its refusal to compromise under new constitution the international agenda host African soccer cup go awry diamond trade in Angola and with northern Nigeria while pretending to do so; war Sierra Leone will continue and unrest grow THE GAMBIA CHAD Pop: 1.2m, GNP: $408m, Debt: $477m Pop: 7.3m, GNP: $1,658m, Debt: $1,091m ERITREA Youssouf Togo mi s northern Pop: 3.9m, GNP: $781m, Debt: $149m Local rivals and Senegal s TUNISIA government lose patience with oppositionists step up attacks Ruling PFDJ congress in mid- President Jammeh s MOROCCO on Pres. Idriss D by s regime; year could promote a challenge mismanagement and meddling major row looms over World to President Issayas Afeworki in Casamance Bank credit for oil pipeline in December elections ALGERIA LIBYA EGYPT CAPE VERDE WESTERN CENTRAL AFRICAN REP. ETHIOPIA Pop: 0.4m, GNP: $499m, Debt: $244m SAHARA Pop: 3.5m, GNP: $1,053m, Debt: $921m Pop: 61.3m, GNP: $6,169m, Debt: $10,352m Following splits in the ruling Economic crisis weakens Pres. Uneasy peace with Eritrea MPD there will be tough battles Ange-F lix Patass against holds but both sides re-arm ahead in presidential elections military opponents despite help after UN sanctions lifted; in early 2001 from UN peacekeepers ministerial and military CAPE MAURITANIA reshuffle early in the year VERDE GUINEA-BISSAU MALI NIGER Pop: 1.2m, GNP: $184m, Debt: $964m CHAD ERITREA DJIBOUTI Death of General Mane allows SENEGAL SUDAN Pop: 0.6m, GNP: $500m*, Debt: $288m President Kumba Yala to THE GAMBIA BURKINA President Ismail Omar Guelleh consolidate his party and FASO DJIBOUTI cracks down after failed coup support in the army GUINEA-BISSAU and improves relations with BENIN Eritrea at the expense of GUINEA GHANA NIGERIA Ethiopia GUINEA CENTRAL ETHIOPIA SIERRA LEONE COTE TOGO AFRICAN Pop: 7.1m, GNP: $3,777m, Debt: $3,546m D’IVOIRE REP. SOMALIA Rebel threat to President CAMEROON LIBERIA Pop: 9.1m, GDP: $879m**, Debt: $2,635m Lansana Conte increases as SOMALIA Sierra Leone Ð Liberia war Preident Abdikassim will get spreads from the south-east EQUATORIAL GUINEA EQUAT. GUINEA support from UN and Arab border Pop: 0.4m, GNP: $478m, Debt: $306m UGANDA states but fail to consolidate President Obiang s two elder SAO TOME KENYA in Mogadishu and face down sons limber up for succession & PRINCIPE the warlords SIERRA LEONE battle which could bring further GABON RWANDA Pop: 4.9m, GNP: $703m, Debt: $1,243m deterioration in much-criticised DEMOCRATIC human rights record; despite BURUNDI KENYA Crisis looms when Kabbah s REPUBLIC SEYCHELLES this the oil industry booms CONGO Pop: 29.3m, GNP: $10,201m, Debt: $7,010m mandate expires in February; OF CONGO Coalition between Raila military position deteriorates as TANZANIA Odinga s NDP and President regional war escalates SAO TOME & PRINCIPE Daniel arap Moi s KANU plot an Pop: 0.1m, GNP: $38m, Debt: $246m election victory for 2002; IMF LIBERIA Both the ruling MLSTP-PSD and agreement collapses again opposition parties will COMOROS Pop: 3.0m, GDP: $2,800m , Debt: $2,103m experience internal strife as ANGOLA Growing opposition to they select candidates to MALAWI UGANDA President Charles Taylor s rule replace incumbent President ZAMBIA Pop: 20.9m, GNP: $6,566m, Debt: $3,935m is more significant than Miguel Trovoada, constitution- Colonel Kizza Besigye mounts international censure for ally barred from seeking a third first serious electoral challenge backing Guinea and Sierra term, in the July elections MADAGASCAR to President Museveni in 15 Leone rebels MOZAMBIQUE years at presidential elections ZIMBABWE MAURITIUS due in March GABON NAMIBIA COTE D IVOIRE Pop: 1.2m, GNP: $4,922m, Debt: $4,425m Pop: 14.5m, GNP: $10,196m, Debt: $14,852m REUNION Would-be successors to BOTSWANA (Fr.) TANZANIA Military and civilian opponents President jostle Pop: 32.1m, GNP: $7,154m, Debt: $7,603m will force new President as oil corruption and regional President Mkapa s position Laurent Gbagbo into major security problems mount will be threatened unless last policial concessions CAMEROON SWAZILAND November s voting shambles Pop: 14.3m, GNP: $8,736m, Debt: $9,829m in Zanzibar is resolved CONGO GHANA Regional pressure for change SOUTH LESOTHO Pop: 2.8m, GNP: $1,899m, Debt: $5,119m hits President ; AFRICA Pop: 18.5m, GNP: $7,269m, Debt: $6,884m Relations with Kinshasa John Fru Ndi s Anglophone RWANDA SEYCHELLES Newly elected President John worsen; President Sassou- opposition woos Francophone Pop: 8.1m, GDP: $1,864m, Debt: $1,226m Pop: 0.08m, GNP: $505m, Debt: $187m Kufuor will push for tough Nguesso gains credibilty with partners Donors push Kigali to withdraw Budget shows new push on economic reforms, help for IMF but doesn t compromise troops from Democratic social spending as government business and political liberalism with opponents Republic of Congo as economic fights international tax haven DEM. REP. OF CONGO woes mount; no-party local image Pop: 48.2m, GNP: $5,433m, Debt: $12,929m BURUNDI elections in February TOGO ANGOLA Unravelling of Lusaka peace Pop: 6.5m, GNP: $911m, Debt: $1,119m Pop: 4.5m, GNP: $1,453m, Debt: $1,448m Pop: 12.0m, GNP: $4,578m, Debt: $12,173m accord, economic meltdown Stalemate over successor to COMOROS Much delayed re-run of MPLA government faces critical and problems with his allies President Pierre Buyoya blocks MALAWI Pop: 0.5m, GNP: $197m, Debt: $203m legislative elections due early negotiations with IMF but oil threaten President Kabila s progress on peace accord and Pop: 10.5m, GNP: $2,168m, Debt: $2,444m Anjouan s status still 2001; President Eday ma faces boom still draws Western power holds up $400m of aid for Ruling UDF splits as President problematic amid negotiations health and regional pressures support; UNITA launches more reconstruction Bakili Muluzi pushes ahead on power-sharing and to exit terror attacks with plans for a third term and elections; increasing pressure ZAMBIA penalises opponents on President Azali to step down Pop: 9.7m, GNP: $3,234m, Debt: $6,865m ZIMBABWE BENIN NAMIBIA President Chiluba will try for a Pop: 11.7m, GNP: $7,214m, Debt: $4,716m Pop: 5.9m, GNP: $2,252m, Debt: $1,647m Pop: 1.7m, GNP: $3,217m, Debt: $132m third term in December s President Mugabe will leave the MOZAMBIQUE MADAGASCAR Ex-Marxist dictator President Ruling SWAPO gets increasingly elections; Zambia will get political centre-stage ahead of Pop: 16.9m, GNP: $3,478m, Debt: $8,208m Pop: 14.6m, GNP: $3,741m, Debt: $4,394m Mathieu K r kou tipped to win arbitrary towards opponents; dragged deeper into Angola 2002 elections; strapped for Renamo will take increasingly Economic upturn and new debt elections amid growing worries problems for military and Democratic Republic of credits and imports, economy warlike stand towards ruling deal boost President Ratsiraka about regional instability interventions in Angola and Congo wars goes into free-fall Frelimo; confrontations loom in ahead of elections due in late Democratic Republic of Congo central and northern provinces 2001 or early 2002 NIGERIA BOTSWANA LESOTHO Pop: 120.8m, GNP: $36,373m, Debt: $30,315m SOUTH AFRICA Pop: 1.6m, GNP: $4,795m, Debt: $548m Pop: 2.1m, GNP: $1,167, Debt: $692m SWAZILAND MAURITIUS President Obasanjo pressed on Pop: 41.4m, GNP: $136,868m, Debt: $24,712m The HIV/Aids epidemic and Opposition BNP tries to force Pop: 1.0m, GNP: $1,384m, Debt: $251m Pop: 1.2m, GNP: $4,329m, Debt: $2,482m slow economic reforms and More pressure on President pressure on diamond markets Prime Minister Mosisili s Oppositions to reject King After the opposition s poll win, ethnic separatism; former Mbeki on HIV/Aids and concern President Mogae s resignation over stalled power- Mswati III s proposed the political alternance between leader Babangida shows unemployment; rivals capitalise reform-minded government as sharing talks ahead of elections constitutional reforms as Jugnauth and Berenger is ambition in north on looming arms deal scandal opposition parties regroup in late 2001 or early 2002 tension mounts again unlikely to last

* 1997 figures ** 1995 figures Estimate or pre-1995 figures na: Not available Main statistical source: World Development Report 2000 (World Bank)

2 12 January 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 1 questioned, allowing a peaceful transition from one elected government to another. NORTH AFRICA The victory of Kufuor and the opposition New Patriotic Party followed the victory of oppositionist Abdoulaye Wade and his Parti Démocratique Sénégalais in presidential elections in Senegal in March. The Senegalese and Ghanaian oppositions’ skilful exploitation Industry and Islamism of popular demand for change will be instructive for opposition In Algeria, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika faces a difficult year, candidates fighting elections in Uganda and Zambia this year, and in with the prospect of new threats from rivals in the Algiers Kenya and Zimbabwe the next. Also apparently against the West establishment (AC Vol 41 No 22). He must convince sceptics that African grain, President Mamadou Tandja’s government in Niger his peace initiative is still viable after an upsurge in violence during and President Alpha Oumar Konaré’s in Mali are held up as Ramadan in December. The appointment of Larbi Belkheir (a effective, reform-minded, governments. power behind the throne of ex-President Chadli Bendjedid) as This doesn’t change the unpalatable reality that the majority of the Secretary General to the Presidency reveals Bouteflika’s dependency 17 states in West Africa are involved directly or indirectly in one or on powerbrokers from the ancien régime. more of the region’s wars. This ‘arc of crisis’ doesn’t spare elected Prime Minister Ali Benflis maintains links to military leaders but governments: Ghana has for the past decade contributed troops to the is also a competent administrator. He will have to balance the Economic Community of West African States’ peacekeeping efforts government modernisers’ ambitious economic reforms - including a in Liberia and Sierra Leone, with mixed results. Senegal’s Wade is major telecommunications sell-off and liberalising rules on foreign making no more progress in resolving the rebellion in the southern investment - while reassuring Algiers powerbrokers that their vested Casamance province than did his predecessor, . interests are safe. However, the burden falls most heavily on the region’s biggest The Ramadan upsurge in violence showed the Groupe Islamique state, Nigeria. Trying to re-establish a civilian government and a Armé (GIA) had not gone away, inspiring whispers that the enemies functioning formal economy after two decades of venal rule, President of ‘Boutef’ were again stirring trouble. 2001 will be the year when Obasanjo is being asked by Western powers and the UN to be the sub- his staying power is tested, away from the marathon foreign visits region’s policeman. This is while Nigeria’s own security forces are and negotiations he likes and understands. If all collapses, unlike patently inadequate to deal with pent-up frustrations vented in the oil- most Algerians, he can return to his home in Switzerland. rich Niger Delta, among proponents of Sharia (Islamic law) in the In neighbouring Morocco, King Mohammed VI confronts rising north and secessionists from Obasanjo’s own Yorubaland. social tensions. Having already shown the limits to his tolerance of dissent by banning several newspapers, he has also cracked down on Ingredients for war Islamist opponents. His new-look team in the Palace will have to As in the wars in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, it may be politic work hard to maintain Mohammed’s early image as the ‘people’s to blame the crisis on a few evil men - Liberia’s warlord-turned- king’ or ‘M6’. President Charles Taylor and Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Prime Minister and veteran socialist Abderrahmane el Compaoré (accused of gun-running and diamond-smuggling in two Youssoufi’s government has bolstered state coffers with the sale of UN reports). But many unarmed opposition activists in Nigeria and a strategic stake in Maroc Télécom to France’s giant Vivendi group. West Africa argue that the political conditions - a mismanaged, Yet as disenchantment with the new order grows, El Youssoufi must corrupt and over-centralised state presiding over a free-falling economy do much more to raise living standards and make the government - are as much to blame as the availability of rebel leaders to take up the more effective. cause of the victims of bad government. The fact that such rebel This year began with a round of industrial disputes and clashes leaders have proved even more brutal than the regimes they’ve ousted between the police and Islamists. Tough economic constraints and the has stopped what had become a regional cycle of . Islamists’ regional base don’t augur well for progress in resolving these The best security system, a Ghanaian diplomat said during the handover issues. Such pressures mean Mohammed will be even more reluctant to by ex-military leader Jerry Rawlings to Kufuor, is good government. consider new strategies on Western Sahara. Instead, Rabat will continue That was part of the message preached by Obasanjo, the guest of to block progress to a United Nations-monitored referendum, hoping to honour at Kufuor’s inauguration on 7 January, when few were persuade more Polisario activists to defect. Behind-the-scenes discussion undiplomatic enough to point to the mounting political crisis faced by on ‘federal solutions’ to the territory’s status are unlikely to amount to Nigeria’s 18-month-old civilian government. The Nigerian crisis, much. Polisario would have to launch a spectacular attack to attract the built up during years of military dictatorship, replicates the Liberia, attention of the UN, France or the United States. This stalemate also Sierra Leone and Guinea syndrome - overcentralisation of political slows down the Algerian-Moroccan rapprochement. power and resources. Marginalisation or persecution of minorities - Tunisia’s President will continue to gloat such as the Gio and Mano in Liberia or Tutsi in former Zaïre - has had over economic success: more than 5 per cent economic growth, strong an incendiary effect. Yet as a federal officer in Nigeria’s civil war, foreign investment growth and a well educated population, which have Obasanjo fears that any relaxation of the constitutional structure will reduced the birth rate to 1.2 per cent. The biggest debits will be political: threaten Nigeria’s integrity. human rights abuses and blocks on free speech persist in a state That is, however, what most of Nigeria’s political leaders demand, dominated by Ben Ali and his ruling Rassemblement Constitutionnel whether they are the 17 southern state governors who met on 10 Démocratique. The presidential family and entourage are beset by January to demand more political and economic autonomy or the cronyism - but the civil service is efficient. Ben Ali is more conscious northern governors of Sharia states such as Zamfara and Kano. of his place in history after unflattering comparisons with Tunisia’s Expect, too, in 2001 to see former military leader Gen. Ibrahim historic leader, Habib Bourguiba, who died last year. To convince Babangida take up energetically the cause of his fellow northerners sceptics his gradualist ‘middle class’ has worked, Ben Ali in pursuit of his own ambitions for a political comeback. must evolve a more pluralist political system. His Islamist opponents 3 12 January 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 1

won’t be part of the plan. For now, his economic successes will be President is so busy elsewhere. For the first time enough to convince most Tunisians to back him. since he took power through guerrilla struggle in 1986, Museveni Expect UN and maybe US sanctions against Libya to be further faces a serious electoral challenge. His former doctor, Colonel Kizza reduced (AC Vol 41 No 21). The Lockerbie trial of Libyan suspects Besigye, is standing against him in March’s presidential election. charged with bombing a Pan Am Flight in 1989 may produce a surprise Previously a leading light in the ruling National Resistance Movement, dénouement - beneficial to Tripoli - after defence lawyers suddenly Besigye is campaigning against growing corruption and bureaucratic ended their case on 8 January. Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi is waste, and military intervention in the Congo-Kinshasa war. He is thriving on Libya’s improving position abroad. International business backed by heavyweight Baganda politicians and Democratic Party enthuses about the opening of the oil sector and the buying power of leader Paul Ssemogerere. Though Besigye is likely to lose, he will a market boosted by a year of high oil prices. Local entrepreneurs still have helped to open up politics. work under tough political constraints and monitoring, though. Gadaffi In Tanzania, President Benjamin Mkapa has got to pick up the doesn’t want any potential rivals building an independent economic pieces after November’s elections, which prompted another crisis in base. There will be another boom for pundits claiming to know which Zanzibar. Lauded for economic management and social policy, of the Guide’s sons - Seif el Islam or El Saadi or even one of their Tanzania is the World Bank’s latest ‘success story’. Yet Mkapa is children, is likely to succeed him as another Arab family dynasty damaged by his failure to clamp down on vote rigging and violence by establishes itself. his political associates in Zanzibar, and by growing allegations that his Politics may be about to revive in Egypt. At the parliamentary government backs Hutu militias in Congo’s war. elections in October-November, the Supreme Constitutional Court In the Horn, disagreements over implementing December’s insisted on full judicial supervision of the vote and judges lobbied Ethiopia-Eritrea peace agreement will persist. Ethiopia wants against administrative tricks. Despite the fact that there was plenty of international guarantees for its use of Assab and Massawa, plus major scope for cheating outside the polling booths, the ruling National demobilisation in Eritrea. Both governments will go on posturing to Democratic Party’s official list took only 170 of the 444 seats up for extract internal political advantage. Renewed conflict in the near grabs; 218 went to former NDP members who’d been left off the list future is improbable: neither can afford to lose aid yet both are and resent the government. rearming. The United Nations arms embargo expires in May; Eritrea The opposition includes secular leftists and Muslim Brothers, seeks planes and ground-to-air missiles; Ethiopia wants helicopters Nasserist diehards and free-market liberals. They all have one thing and armour and to activate its deal with Israel to upgrade its old MiGs. in common: they want to roll back state control of politics and the Ethiopia will make a post-war reshuffle soon. The Foreign Ministry media. The Constitutional Court will soon give its ruling on the rights has made over 50 new appointments, including chargés in Britain, of independent publishers to start newspapers. France, India, Israel and Russia. A leading candidate for Defence The government botched its attempt last year to inject massive Minister is the Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Tsadkan amounts of cash into the economy but now claims that Egypt is no Gebretensae. The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic longer in an economic ‘crisis’. Yet pay arrives late and the Eid Front will win February’s local elections but opposition parties may shopping season was stark. The government now says it will go ahead take some seats, despite government interference. The World Bank with its infrastructure projects, although privatisation lags. The will approve poverty reduction plans and admit Ethiopia to the regime appears worn down by past problems and reluctant to consider Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative. The European Union will new policies to deal with them. relaunch projects in both countries. With the end of the war, which did much to spread the disease, more resources should become available to fight HIV-AIDS, now at critical levels. EAST AFRICA Ethiopian relations with Sudan may continue to improve: Ethiopia hopes to use Port Sudan. The Nile Waters will remain contentious and keep Ethiopia’s relations with Egypt poor. They also disagree over Mixed fortunes Somalia’s new government: Ethiopia is watching President In Kenya, President Daniel arap Moi’s Kenya African National Abdikassim Salat Hassan’s Islamist (including Sudanese) support Union and ’s National Development Party are set to and his failure to engage with Somaliland and Puntland; both territories consummate their alliance with a formal coalition to fight the 2002 are supported by Ethiopia, which will countenance no settlement elections. They could win comfortably against the divided and mainly inimical to its interests. It may put troops into Somalia to support its Kikuyu-based opposition. Moi wants a deal with Odinga to give him allies and will arm other opposition groups. political security after he’s due to retire next year. He also wants to Plans to raise Djibouti port fees by up to 150 per cent will boost amend the constitution via parliament, to provide for a ceremonial Ethiopia’s plans to use Berbera port, Somaliland. After December’s president (Moi or ), a Vice-President (Musalia coup attempt by Djibouti’s sacked police commander, Gen. Yacin Mudavadi) and Prime Minister (Odinga). Yabeh, President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh is rounding up dissidents and With some aid taps turned on again, the government will protect its collecting arms. He will continue such tactics. Ethiopia’s relations remaining patronage and stall unpalatable reforms. The government with Djibouti will deteriorate further; Eritrea’s will improve. Eritrean will undermine if not disband the anti-corruption authority. Then the support for Oromo dissidents in southern Ethiopia, filtered through International Monetary Fund-World Bank deal will be suspended: Somalia, will continue; the united Oromo opposition leadership is most of the Bank-financed Kenyan technocrats in Richard Leakey’s now based in Asmara. Activities along the border will strain Ethiopian reform ‘dream team’ will quit in disgust (their contracts expire in relations with Kenya. September anyway). Moi will be back with Leakey and Bank In post-defeat Eritrea, the Foreign Ministry has also been shaken up, President Jim Wolfensohn negotiating another personally backed with ambassadors to the UN and United States recalled. New agreement a few months later. embassies will help future public relations offensives. Next to be Relations with Uganda will continue to improve, partly because overhauled are the Defence Ministry and the military command

4 12 January 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 1 structure. The defence force will be expensively modernised. in adhering to the principles for which mujahideen were martyred’, The ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice congress in said Omer on 4 January. mid-year will plan for December’s elections, to which President The war (and famine) will intensify, with new oil-funded weaponry. Issayas Afeworki reluctantly agreed. Congress will criticise him and As Khartoum’s been able to bomb civilians in the south and other war the 150-seat legislature, which elects the president, may even challenge zones with impunity in 2000, it won’t stop. Southern moves to him. Yet he remains a skilful and ruthless politician: it will be reconcile politico-military factions (with the aim of independence) surprising if he loses. Other parties will be allowed in the polls but the will go on. The NIF will still fuel southern divisions while trying to government thinks they won’t have time to organise. Some reinforce north-south differences in the NDA. But the more fundamental independents will stand, including diaspora leaders, among them People-to-People peace process (which owes much to the late Marc signatories of the Berlin manifesto, leaders of the Eritrean Independent Nikkel) will grow, though it’s woefully under-funded compared to the Democratic Movement formed in Washington in October, and Herui Inter-Governmental Authority on Development process. It has already Tedla Bairu, who organised December’s Eritrean democracy moved from Nuer clans to Nuer-Dinka disagreements and will now conference in Sweden. Leading PFDJ members such as Petros embrace other tribes. Solomon or Mesfin Hagos might also mount a challenge. In Somalia, conflict will decline, though hundreds of thousands of CENTRAL AFRICA people will go hungry. President Abdikassim will fail to create a realistic government. He will keep UN and European Union support; Italy plans to recognise his government. He will get more help from Arab states (Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia) but not enough to establish Congo imbroglio his position in Mogadishu or enlist the warlords of his own Hawiye Two developments could help peace efforts in Congo-Kinshasa this clan. Yemeni mediation will make no progress. year: gathering political and financial pressure on the foreign In Somaliland, a blossoming economy will allow President combatants to withdraw their troops and a near consensus among all Mohamed Ibrahim Egal to keep rejecting Abdikassim’s government. parties that President Laurent-Désiré Kabila be replaced by a leader Puntland’s survival may depend on the health of its President, Col. more willing to negotiate with political opponents. The hope is that Abdullahi Yussef. some of the bilateral meetings held late last year might eventually In Sudan, contradictions will sharpen this year. Whether they yield agreement on troop withdrawal and, at least, power-sharing in trigger the overthrow of the National Islamic Front will depend firstly Kinshasa. Such hopes remain slim. on the opposition’s ability to exploit NIF weaknesses and secondly, on The Congo war is too big, too complex and too cut off from the rich the NIF’s ability to divide the opposition and seduce foreign West to inspire much diplomatic effort. It pits Kabila, backed by governments into helping it to stay in power (AC Vol 41 No 20). Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe, against Congolese rebels backed The contradictions are epitomised in the year-long quarrel between by Rwanda and Uganda. It is the world’s biggest war if not its worst. Vice-President Ali Osman Mohamed Taha’s group (fronted by In December, the United Nations Security Council extended the President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir) and Hassan Abdullah el mandate of its UN Mission in Congo (MONUC) until 15 January as Turabi. This conflict will persist because it helps the government. fighting again escalated. Kabila’s backers and his many enemies are Western and Arab governments touting ‘constructive engagement’ or determined to make ground before they are forced to retreat. ‘critical dialogue’ with Khartoum believe (or profess to) that ‘Turabi The UN Secretary General’s special representative, Kamel Morjane, the dangerous Islamist’ has been sidelined by a simple military has called for a truce and on 22 December, Presidents Kabila, Sam government (despite repeated government declarations that the Islamist Nujoma (Namibia) and Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe) proposed that movement rules and will not dilute its principles). The NIF (Lieutenant the rebels, and the Rwandan and Ugandan troops, pull back to their Gen. Omer’s National Congress plus Turabi’s Popular National former positions. Neither call had any more effect than the Congress) will continue to seduce governments and business with oil- ‘disengagement plan’, which was signed in Kampala in April 2000. fuelled contracts, redoubling its courting of a USA headed by oil- On the Katanga front, the Rwandan army and its allies of the minded free-trader George W. Bush (AC Vol 41 No 25) and free, it Rassemblement Congolais pour la Démocratie have taken Pweto on hopes, of anti-NIF officials led by Susan Rice. Egypt will try to the Zambian border and seem to be advancing towards copper capital impress its engagement policy on Washington and on an eager Britain Lubumbashi. Some 3,000 Congolese soldiers have crossed into and France (which, true to history, it will play off against each other). Zambia, saying they’re tired of fighting; a few Rwandan soldiers have The NIF rivals avoid saying anything to damage the Islamist done likewise. movement but they hadn’t planned for their followers to take the In Equateur Province, Kabila is stepping up pressure on Jean- arguments too seriously and quarrel as well. The NIF will weaken Pierre Bemba’s Mouvement pour la Libération du Congo (MLC). On further; more oppositionists will return from exile to work underground. Christmas Day, government aircraft bombed the 2,000-metre runway Public returns, à la Sadig el Mahdi, are another matter. He has got at Gbadolité and some other small towns. Kinshasa claims that nothing from his pact with the NIF (though he may get a symbolic Bemba’s forces include a battalion from Jonas Savimbi’s União premiership) and Umma Party leaders have, unprecedentedly, Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola although independent condemned him. He’ll pursue his main aim: to ensure a son of his sources don’t confirm this. becomes Umma and Ansar chief. The NIF will try harder to recruit Rwanda and Uganda are under pressure. In November, donor Democratic Unionist Party boss Mohamed Osman el Mirghani and countries urged Rwandan President to pull his troops spread more doubt about his commitment to the opposition National out of Congo-K: Kagame is trying to dig in before the pressure gets too Democratic Alliance. Yet even the many Sudanese who backed strong. The UN’s expert group on Congo’s minerals and war finance Sadig’s return now acknowledge that the NIF won’t change its spots has been urged by British and United States’ diplomats to examine and compromise with the opposition. After December’s election Zimbabwe’s diamond and cobalt deals. In turn, Zimbabwean officials farce, ‘the new government will not be different from the current one are convinced that Britain and the USA are directly financing the 5 12 January 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 1

Uganda-Rwanda war effort. Certainly the UN report, due in March, will report on illicit trade intensity insurgency to abort the Burundi government’s reconstruction with Rwanda and Uganda. The International Court in the Hague is plan, for which donors promised a total of US$440 million on 11-12 considering a complaint by Kinshasa against Uganda; in April, Kampala December in Paris. will submit its own counter-complaint. Reconstruction would involve a transition towards democracy, Rwanda and Uganda may see less favour fall on Congo from the under a transitional head of state. Yet neither of the main camps - the new US government. President George W. Bush and his deputy Dick ‘G7’, composed of mainly Hutu parties, and the ‘G8’, mainly Tutsi - Cheney are close to US oil interests and their pro-Angola policy. can agree on a candidate. Some officers quietly threaten another coup Bush will be instinctively sceptical about peacekeeping in Congo. if their man does not get the job. Nobody knows how a new president Kabila invited the main opposition forces to a meeting in Libreville, would be picked, how the army would be opened up to Hutus or how Gabon, on 21-22 December; under the July 1999 Lusaka agreement, a future parliament could be chosen. President Pierre Buyoya is he had to promote a national political dialogue. The armed rebels did sitting pretty, insisting on safeguards for himself and his colleagues if not show up, nor did the followers of the late President Mobutu Sese they are replaced; the longer the confusion over the interim president, Seko, Etienne Tshisekedi wa Malumba’s Union pour la Démocratie the longer his tenure. et le Progrès Social or Albert Mpeti’s Forces Politiques et Sociales Rwanda is less used to dealing with international pressure than de l’Opposition Plurielle. The unarmed groups demanded that Kabila Burundi. This year, that will change. Donors say Kigali’s support for should repeal his Decree 194, which makes it impossible for opposition the Congolese rebels will cut foreign aid levels. Publicly, Washington parties to operate. demands that all Rwanda’s troops leave Congo; Washington’s pro- Kabila has managed to alienate even the leaders in Kivu,who Kigali tilt could be a victim of the new government. The European oppose the involvement of Rwanda and Uganda but are furious about Union’s representative in Kigali, Jeremy Lester, reflects the November’s arrest (along with 120 colleagues) of Commandant disapproval of some members - especially France and Belgium, Anselme Masasu Nindaga, founder of one of the groups which where pro-Hutu Catholic lobbies campaign for suspension of aid. helped Kabila to power. These economic pressures are worsened by severe drought in five of Kabila was in New York (with a stopover in London) for the Rwanda’s twelve préfectures, while in the Kigali area, floods have Security Council meeting on 14 December. It is understood he was wrecked houses, ruined crops and killed thousands of cattle. given six months to ‘be reasonable’, meaning to apply the Lusaka Kagame’s government knows that the troops of the late President accords and widen his government. Nevertheless, Belgium’s Secretary Juvénal Habyarimana’s old Hutu regime are undefeated; his senior of State for Foreign Trade, Annemie Neyts, recently visited Kabila officers claim that Kabila shelters 10-15,000 soldiers of the former and came home discouraged. Forces Armées Rwandaises, some at Vangu camp, near Lubumbashi, More significantly, Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos others at Kamina airbase in Katanga. Some are integrated into the did not bother to attend December’s summit of Kinshasa’s allies. Forces Armées Congolaises, most keep their own command structure. Luanda believes the Congolese opposition has lined up with Savimbi According to Kagame’s officers, the former Chief of Staff, General and UNITA, and is determined to sustain a team on its own side in Augustin Bizimungu, attends meetings of the allied joint staff at Kinshasa. Dos Santos’s people doubt, though, whether Kabila is the Mbuji-Mayi, along with his Congolese and Zimbabwean counterparts. right man for the job. Angolan officials have contacted all sections of Mainly because of the Congo war and its troops’ behaviour, the Congolese opposition; Angola and Congo-Brazzaville have even international sympathy for Rwanda is waning. Carla da Ponte, chief discussed whether two of Mobutu’s generals, Kpama Baramoto and prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, intends Nzimbi Ngbale Kongo wa Bassa,would make suitable replacements to take proceedings against officers of the Armée Patriotique Rwandaise, for Kabila or whether Bemba could be coaxed into a power-sharing for alleged massacres during and after the genocide in 1994. Kagame deal in Kinshasa (AC Vol 41 Nos 23 & 25). Angola may come to agree himself could face an international arrest warrant. with Congo-B that Congo-K needs a new leader. In February, there will be elections for Rwanda’s communes but If the fighting continues in Congo, the Burundi peace agreement, without parties and with an electorate of picked leaders of small half-signed in Arusha on 28 August, has little chance. The leader of communities. The government fears that a wider franchise would open the Forces pour la Défense de la Démocratie (FDD), Jean-Bosco the road to Hutus and monarchists - and its own supporters are Ndayikengurukiye, is said to live in Lubumbashi and the Bujumbura discontented, especially with the dominance of returned exiles from government blames Kabila for his refusal to sign the peace accord. Uganda and Burundi over the settled Tutsi communities. There is no Information Minister Luc Rukingama thinks that Ndayikengurukiye outlet for this discontent, at home or abroad. and other armed rebels have a personal interest (through the diamond trade) in keeping Kabila in office. SOUTHERN AFRICA Rebels from Burundi played a big part in resisting Rwandan forces and Congolese rebels at Pepa and Pweto. Rukingama thinks there will be no progress towards peace until international pressure is applied to Kabila and to Tanzania, which backs Kabora Khossan’s Forces Revolving doors Nationales de Libération (FNL), the armed wing of Etienne Karatasi’s President Thabo Mbeki himself is, and will remain, the central issue Parti pour la Libération du Peuple Hutu (Palipehutu). The government of South African politics: 2000 was a bad year for him, with perceived blames the FNL for an attack on a Sabena Boeing at Bujumbura airport failures over unemployment, crime, Zimbabwe and most of all, HIV- on 4 December and claims the rebels came in from Tanzania. AIDS. Much criticism will be personal, from old rivals and opponents. Both Kenya’s President Daniel arap Moi and Uganda’s Yoweri Expect signs of political revival for . Museveni have announced sanctions against the FDD and FNL for The parliamentary opposition, particularly the Democratic Alliance, their refusal to sign the peace accord, whereas Congo-K and Tanzania will gain strength after a good showing in December’s local elections have not done so. Presumably the rebels want to continue a low- (AC Vol 41 No 25). Politics will get nastier and more racial: many of

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Mbeki’s fiercest opponents are white liberals, oddly aligned with peace accord for Congo-Kinshasa fades and Zambia itself lurches recycled, apartheid-era, racists. Racial politics will deter investors. deeper into the conflict. Angola’s government is angry because Jonas Mbeki knows the country’s image has suffered overseas and since Savimbi’s União Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola has October, his aides have been working on a ‘makeover’. Tony Heard, bases in western Zambia, in collusion with local business people and media advisor in the presidency, will gain importance, as will South politicians. When 3,000 Congo government troops fled from Rwanda Africa’s overseas friends. Bheki Khumalo, mild-mannered and into Zambia , Kigali said if they included Hutu fighters linked to the intelligent, will take over Mbeki’s communications department but genocide of 1994, it would pursue them. Zambia must stay clear of the the question of the President’s personality will not go away. war, ahead of the Organisation of African Unity summit in Lusaka this As investors hold back and unemployment rises, the government year. It must also prevent Angola, Congo-K, Namibia and Zimbabwe gets little credit for its strong macro-economic management. In late boycotting the summit in protest against Chiluba’s apparent tilt January, after the African National Congress’s national executive towards the Congolese rebels. Neutrality will be tested to the limit. meets, the cabinet and top civil servants will meet to shape a strategy In Angola, President George Bush’s oil connections will outweigh for job-creating growth. This year is Mbeki’s last chance to take the usual Republican pro-UNITA sentiment. Halliburton, the former unpopular decisions and make deals with his allies to the left before the company of Vice-President-elect Richard Cheney, has $350 million ANC’s next full conference in late 2002 and general elections in early in loan guarantees by the United States government through the Exim 2004. ANC leaders want compromises on labour law reform, civil Bank for work in Angola, where it has six offices and works with service restructuring and privatisation; left-wingers in the Congress of Chevron, on whose board sits the new National Security Advisor South African Trade Unions will confront the government on these Condoleezza Rice. Angola’s government will be further discredited issues. But Mbeki is ready, a party in-fighter with black belt credentials. by the French scandal involving, among others, Jean-Christophe In March or April, Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee should Mitterrand and Pierre Falcone (AC Vol 41 No 25). report on its investigation of a US$6 billion arms deal with contractors The elections planned for 2001 will be postponed: UNITA makes in Britain, Germany, Italy and Sweden for warplanes, helicopters vast areas too dangerous. Many of Luanda’s policy problems are and corvettes. Usually sober observers say senior members of the rooted in corruption and the non-accountability of oil revenues; one government have things to hide. result is a failure to develop the provinces. Money spent there would In Zimbabwe, President Robert Mugabe says 2000 was the most help win people away from UNITA, whose defeats in October 1999, difficult year in the country’s history. This year looks worse. Even his resulting in the loss of diamond mines and sanctions, prevent it from ally Mbeki has, through officials, contacted Morgan Tsvangirai of fighting a conventional war. Savimbi now tries to destroy what he the opposition Movement for Democratic Change. cannot rule; a recent attack on Benguela airport exposed serious If reforming Finance Minister Simba Makoni won every single weaknesses in government security and boosted UNITA’s morale. argument with Mugabe, life would still get tougher for most people. In Mozambique, the poorly led but increasingly popular Resistência Inability to meet foreign debts means compromising with creditors, Nacional Moçambicana will stand up to President ’s including the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Frente de Libertação de Moçambique. Worried by its unpopularity, Now an electoral liability, Mugabe will make a choreographed Frelimo will play more strident politics. Sporadic violence is likely. departure from the centre of power and the succession race will go In Namibia, the ruling South West Africa People’s Organisation public. Old-guard intelligence chief Emmerson Mnangagwa will be will further concentrate state power in its hands by appointing party up against popular ex-Local Government Minister John Nkomo and loyalists to key parastatals and through ‘Namibianisation’ of the reformer Makoni. Mnangagwa starts as favourite and as Mugabe’s lucrative fishing industry. Further modest expansion of the economy choice for successor, he could even persuade the old man to quit. will be underpinned by raising diamond production and construction Next year’s presidential campaign could be even more violent than of a new zinc mine and refinery in the south. 2000’s parliamentary vote. Tsvangirai will again be helped by disgust This year will be a real test of Botswanan President Festus Mogae’s at government mismanagement but needs a clearer land policy to win authority: he has personally committed himself to reducing the rural support. ZANU strategists think rapid land reform and anti- prevalence of HIV-AIDS but there is little prospect of a serious white rhetoric enough. Lands Minister Joseph Made wants fast-track challenge to his Botswana Democratic Party. Economic diversification reform and promises a revised policy by the end of June. The United remains problematic and the government’s ability to finance social Nations would help negotiate a face-saving programme; the UK is infrastructure will depend on diamonds’ continued profitability. staying out of it. ZANU strategists claim their hard line has speeded up land transfers. Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com The key will be the harvest. The government says land reform won’t Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at cut maize and cotton production; others suggest a collapse. More 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. companies will close, others plan moves to Botswana or South Africa. Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. Zambia looks shaky as November’s general elections approach. Administration: Clare Tauben. President wants a third term, despite promises that he would not stand, and now refuses to discuss the issue. His Annual subscriptions, including postage, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: Movement for Multi-party Democracy is holding a special congress: Institutions: Africa £289 - UK/Europe £310 - USA $780 - ROW £404 Chiluba is quietly trying to pack it with his supporters. The opposition Corporates: Africa £354 - UK/Europe £373 - USA $864 - ROW £466 is ill prepared. The once ruling United National Independence Party Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £83 or USA $129 must choose between Francis Nkhoma or Tilyenji Kaunda (son of All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept ex-President ) as its candidate. Millionaire Anderson American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 Mazoka and his young United Party for National Development will be 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 hard pressed to match the MMD’s national network. Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. Chiluba’s record as a regional peace-broker is dim, as the Lusaka ISSN 0044-6483

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General of the ruling United Democratic Front, is holding out for rights to choose the operator and Pointers says the party has expelled Mpinganjira, his wife take a 60 percent share in the zone. São Tomé’s Lizzie and two other senior MPs for making chief negotiator, Flavio dos Santos, is pushing unacceptable statements against the leadership. for a smaller overall area for the JDA and some AFRICA Reverend Dumbo Lemani, a Minister of State indication that Nigeria’s fractious National and the President’s political advisor, claims (like Assembly will ratify any settlement. If a other party personalities) that Muluzi is the only compromise can be reached, likely losers include How high the moon? person capable of ruling Malawi and members Exxon-Mobil, which has an option on oil blocks who disagree will be expelled. Mpinganjira’s presently claimed by São Tomé. Meanwhile, The Holy Spirit Association for the Unification of expulsion came after he said he was forming a amongst the likely winners are reported to be non- World Christianity, better known as the Unification ‘National Democratic Alliance’ to save democracy traditional players in Africa, from South America, Church and even better known as ‘the Moonies’, which ‘is going astray in Malawi’. favoured by the Nigerian side. continues to court African leaders. The Church Muluzi, 57, became Malawi’s first elected was founded in 1954 in Seoul, South Korea, by president in 1994, following the late Life President Reverend Sun Myung Moon. In December, it Hastings Kamuzu Banda. Mpinganjira compares GHANA held meetings worldwide under the banner of the his own treatment to that handed out under Banda’s Interreligious and International Federation for one-party rule. The case before Blantyre World Peace (President, Chung Hwan Kwak), to Magistrate Court is that Mpinganjira took 57,000 Jobs for Jak support the ‘Culture of Peace’ in the United Nations kwacha (US$800) to award educational contracts After his chaotic inauguration ceremony on 7 millennial peace year. to Yusuf Bobat. Though called as a state witness, One session was arranged for 9-10 December January, new President John Agyekum Kufuor Bobat says he lent money, which has been repaid, has earned the local sobriquet of ‘Jak’. With a in Genval, Belgium; those invited included to his ‘family friends’ Mpinganjira and his wife, diplomats from South Africa’s and Equatorial transition period of just eight days between the and that he won all bids through open tender. confirmation of his election win and the Guinea’s Brussels embassies and an ethnologist Mpinganjira’s lawyer claimed Bobat told police from Congo-Kinshasa. Also on the list were a inauguration, Jak Kufuor and his aides were given about bribery after meeting Muluzi at States House a lightning tour of the levers of power by the European Commission civil servant, a on 17 December. representative of the Scientologists and a member reluctantly outgoing National Democratic Judgment is expected on 16 January. Congress ministers. Already several questions of of the Peace Culture Commission of the UN Mpinganjira’s friends recall that he was sacked Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation. accountability and security have been raised. To from cabinet as responsible minister amid a the fury of Kufuor’s new Chief of Staff and former We hear the chosen hotel was unhappy to hear of financial scandal at the Education Ministry but the Moonie connection and suddenly cancelled Managing Director of Lintas Ghana, Jake that the final report to parliament did not blame Obetsebi-Lamptey, many of the outgoing the bookings, forcing the IIFWP to seek another him though it named and blamed others. That venue. ministers secured themselves new four-wheel- affair involved $2.5 million; the present one drive vehicles before leaving their posts and are The IIFWP website also describes an involves about $800. Church leaders, trades international seminar, held in London, Britain, loath to vacate their official residences quickly. unionists and civil rights groups are campaigning Outgoing President Jerry Rawlings is trying on 29 September-2 October 2000. Participants against a third term for Muluzi. included Wally N’Dow from West Africa, the to negotiate a further six months’ stay in his ‘Convener of the State of the World Forum’; official residence at the Castle, a slave fort in Uganda’s Ambassador to the UN, Semakula NIGERIA/SÃO TOMÉ central Accra. More significant are the planned Kiwanuka; and the Makerere University Vice- probes into the Social Security National Insurance Chancellor, Badru Kettarega. N’Dow is Trust which is alleged to have wasted millions of Secretary General of another Moonie body, the Big brother dollars of workers’ contributions on unviable and ‘World Association of Non-Governmental possibly corrupt investments. The refurbishment Organisations’. On 20-22 October last in New Negotiators from giant Nigeria and tiny São Tomé of the Tema refinery, on which there was a cost York, it organised a discussion on the UN’s peace e Príncipe hope to conclude a landmark agreement overrun amounting to tens of millions of dollars, declaration, at Indonesia’s UN mission. to settle a border dispute at talks due to begin in is also likely to come under scrutiny. But Kufuor Back in 1995, Chung, the World Peace man, São Tomé on 25 January. The dispute centres on has downplayed calls for retribution against led a Moonie delegation to the then Zaïre, where an undemarcated maritime border in an area members of the outgoing regime, many of whom the Vice-President of the transitional parliament, reportedly rich in oil reserves in the Gulf of have been accused of gross human rights violations. André Bo-Boliko Lokonga, received them. Guinea. Similar disputes in the region - between This may be sensible. There are several thousand Previous forays had been made into Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Cameroon, between Equatorial commanders of the 64th battalion personally loyal Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia and Guinea and Gabon and between Equatorial to Rawlings who are now deployed throughout the Zimbabwe. In the 1980s, a Unification Church Guinea and Nigeria - have escalated either into mainstream forces and police. publication, ‘Rising Tide’, wrote regularly about military confrontation or lengthy legal battles. On Kufuor’s first appointment was to name the Angola’s Cabinda rebels and back in 1985, it was this occasion, the two sides are looking to borrow former editor of the Daily Graphic and BBC already holding a symposium in France on ‘North a mechanism from Asia that will bypass the journalist Elizabeth Ohene as his Media Africa 2000’. sovereignty issue and allow early moves towards Spokesperson. He is also likely to name his rival the exploration and exploitation of the area’s for the New Patriotic Party leadership, Nana Akufo-Addo, as his Minister of Justice and MALAWI resources. The proposed Joint Development Arrangement Attorney General. We hear accountant Ken (JDA), under which countries agree to set aside Dapaah is to be nominated as Minister for Energy Third term lucky differences over borders in order to share the while Hackman Owusu-Agyemang is to be benefits of development, is relatively untested in Foreign Minister. Perhaps the most sensitive Malawi’s constitution limits a president to two Africa, though Senegal and Guinea-Bissau appointment might be the Health portfolio for five-year terms. President Bakili Muluzi wants a reached a similar deal in 1999. Oil companies rate which Kufuor’s own brother and Director of the third (AC Vol 41 No 22). His main opponent, considerably more highly the deep-water zone Ghana Medical Association, Dr. Addo Kufuor, is Brown Mpinganjira, ex-Minister of Education between Nigeria and São Tomé. tipped. No one questions his competence but the and of Foreign Affairs, now faces trial on a bribery Critical details remain to be resolved, however. NPP, which made much of nepotism in the NDC, charge. Willie Katenga Kaunda, Secretary Nigeria’s deputy Foreign Minister, Dubem Onyia, could face the same charges. 8