www.africa-confidential.com 12 January 2001 Vol 42 No 1 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL NORTH AFRICA 3 AFRICA/WEST AFRICA Industry and Islamism The centre isn’t holding Pressure for accountability and devolution of power is at the root of Violence will not end quickly in Algeria; President Bouteflika will many of the continent’s conflicts continue to seek the welcome In the evening of 7 January in Accra, four West African heads of state were toasting the inauguration of abroad that is increasingly lacking at home. Morocco’s king will crack the newly elected Ghanaian President, John Agyekum Kufuor. At the same time across the border down on Islamists and drag his some 300 kilometres to the west, a group of Ivorian soldiers was plotting to overthrow President Laurent feet in Western Sahara. In Egypt, Gbagbo’s government in Abidjan. After seeing his guests off, Kufuor launched into a round of talks with politics may revive though less so foreign bankers and diplomats about economic reform. In Abidjan, the Ivorian putschists were outgunned in Tunisia; Libya seeks glory on by Gbagbo’s forces. Four decades earlier, Ghana’s Independence leader, Kwame Nkrumah, bet his the international stage. Ivorian counterpart, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, that his political strategy would prevail. Nkrumah was overthrown in 1966; Houphouët-Boigny died in his bed in 1993. Yet today Ghana is much the more stable EAST AFRICA 4 country, with brighter economic prospects. Thus forecasting trends and events in Africa is only slightly less problematic than generalising from Mixed fortunes the continent’s extraordinary particulars. The late Jo Slovo, formerly Chief of Staff of Mkhonto we As President Moi seeks security in Sizwe, the military wing of the African National Congress, was frequently asked how long it would take retirement, President Museveni to overthrow the apartheid regime. He would reply that he had predicted at the time of the Soweto faces his first electoral challenge. students’ rising in 1976 that he would give it five years. And ten years later, he said, he saw no reason Zanzibar crises plague Tanzania to change his mind. while Eritrea and Ethiopia investigate peace. In Sudan, the In the Slovo spirit, there are several hardy perennials in Africa’s forecasting lexicon. For about a Islamist government will hold its decade many newspapers, this one included, have predicted the imminent departure from office of hard line while maximising its Kenya’s President Daniel arap Moi. Now, with the end of Moi’s constitutional last term due in 2002, campaign to show it’s doing the many Kenyans wonder whether he will carve out a new political role for himself after that date. The other opposite. In Somalia, war will much predicted departure is that of Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe: we still believe that will be decrease. choreographed this year by the Zimbabwe African National Union hierarchy. And we can safely predict, in the spirit of Slovo, that the World Bank will say that another African economic recovery is under way. CENTRAL AFRICA 5 It forecasts economic growth across Africa at 4.5 per cent this year, compared to 3.5 per cent it forecast for growth last year. Congo imbroglio War will still dominate the region, Trade and market access spilling over onto neighbours. The Bank will be on firmer ground when it turns its attention to trade issues. Trade and market access Signs of change in Congo-K are will overshadow the debt cancellation campaign this year. Since 1970, Africa’s agricultural exports have pressure for other countries to pull out their troops and a growing lost some US$70 billion a year in market share through inefficiency and Western protectionism. feeling that the departure of Agricultural subsidies in rich countries cost some $300 bn. a year or about 100 times current aid levels President Kabila might help end to Africa. Coordinating through the Economic Commission for Africa and the African Development the war. Bank, African trade and finance ministries are working on a common position to promote at the World Trade Organisation. Already this year, some European Commission officials have proposed tariff-free SOUTHERN AFRICA 6 access for agricultural exports from the world’s 50 poorest countries (most of them African) - much to the horror of European farmers. Revolving doors As African governments and the United Nations belatedly hammer out the message on HIV-AIDS, campaigners for cheaper drugs - such as the HIV retrovirals and anti-malarials - will take centre stage, Presidents will try to remain in power but in Angola, oil and backed by economists such as Harvard’s Jeffrey Sachs and Ghana’s former Finance Minister, Kwesi diamonds will feed the war. Botchwey. Environmentalists will look more closely at Africa on such matters as trials of genetically modified crops and the continued unregulated dumping of toxic waste. Though a continent widely seen as the world’s most marginalised, Africa can still draw the attention POINTERS 8 of world leaders such as the United States’ outgoing President Bill Clinton and Britain’s Prime Minister Tony Blair. Africa could see some positive results if the Organisation of African Unity’s leadership Africa, Malawi, São triumvirate - Algeria’s Abdelaziz Bouteflika, Nigeria’s Olusegun Obasanjo and South Africa’s Tomé & Príncipe & Thabo Mbeki - can tap into such connections on issues such as tariffs, debt and drug prices. Ghana Many of Mbeki and Obasanjo’s diplomatic efforts are spent countering what Mbeki calls ‘populist pessimism’ about Africa. West Africa, seen as one of the most politically unstable regions, shows the How high the moon? Third term lucky; big brother; jobs for Jak. difficulty of their task. In December, Ghana organised elections in which the results were not seriously 12 January 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 1 MAURITANIA MOROCCO ALGERIA TUNISIA LIBYA EGYPT Pop: 2.5m, GNP: $1,033m, Debt: $2,589m Pop: 27.8m, GNP: $34,421m, Debt: $20,687m Pop: 29.9m, GNP: $46,389m, Debt: $30,665m Pop: 9.3m, GNP: $19,193m, Debt: $11,078m Pop: 5.3m, GDP: $23,452m , Debt: $7,000m Pop: 61.4m, GNP: $79,185m, Debt: $31,964m Support for Ould Daddah and Economic stagnation and New wave of Islamist attacks President Ben Ali s strong Oil-fired European business The ruling National Democratic his banned opposition party resurgent Islamists will test threaten credibilty of President economic management risks rush to Tripoli; ending of Party now holds only 170 of the grows but President Taya won t Mohammed VI s reforming Abdelaziz Bouteflika s strategy eclipse by cronyism, human sanctions strengthen Gaddafi; 444 seats in parliament; lively face elections until 2003 credentials; thaw with Algeria but opening to foreign capital rights abuses and state Lockerbie result leaves him political scene in prospect with slows continues censorship unscathed moves to free media and politics from state control SENEGAL Pop: 9.0m, GNP: $4,683m, Debt: $3,861m WESTERN SAHARA MALI BURKINA FASO NIGER President Wade has problems Pop: 0.3, GNP: na, Debt: na Pop: 10.6m, GNP: $2,646m, Debt: $3,202m Pop: 10.7m, GNP: $2,575m, Debt: $1,399m Pop: 10.1m, GNP: $2,023m, Debt: $1,659m SUDAN with minority government and Polisario will have to fight Campaigning for 2002 elections Threat of sanctions after President Tandja reforms civil Pop: 28.3m, GNP: $8,224m, Debt: $16,843m Casamance; parliamentary inertia and Moroccan lobbying opens with ex-military leader President Blaise Compaor s service, pushes rural Islamist government will persist elections in first half of year to get the referendum back on General Toure ahead; plans to government named in arms Ð development and closer links in its refusal to compromise under new constitution the international agenda host African soccer cup go awry diamond trade in Angola and with northern Nigeria while pretending to do so; war Sierra Leone will continue and unrest grow THE GAMBIA CHAD Pop: 1.2m, GNP: $408m, Debt: $477m Pop: 7.3m, GNP: $1,658m, Debt: $1,091m ERITREA Youssouf Togo mi s northern Pop: 3.9m, GNP: $781m, Debt: $149m Local rivals and Senegal s TUNISIA government lose patience with oppositionists step up attacks Ruling PFDJ congress in mid- President Jammeh s MOROCCO on Pres. Idriss D by s regime; year could promote a challenge mismanagement and meddling major row looms over World to President Issayas Afeworki in Casamance Bank credit for oil pipeline in December elections ALGERIA LIBYA EGYPT CAPE VERDE WESTERN CENTRAL AFRICAN REP. ETHIOPIA Pop: 0.4m, GNP: $499m, Debt: $244m SAHARA Pop: 3.5m, GNP: $1,053m, Debt: $921m Pop: 61.3m, GNP: $6,169m, Debt: $10,352m Following splits in the ruling Economic crisis weakens Pres. Uneasy peace with Eritrea MPD there will be tough battles Ange-F lix Patass against holds but both sides re-arm ahead in presidential elections military opponents despite help after UN sanctions lifted; in early 2001 from UN peacekeepers ministerial and military CAPE MAURITANIA reshuffle early in the year VERDE GUINEA-BISSAU MALI NIGER Pop: 1.2m, GNP: $184m, Debt: $964m CHAD ERITREA DJIBOUTI Death of General Mane allows SENEGAL SUDAN Pop: 0.6m, GNP: $500m*, Debt: $288m President Kumba Yala to THE GAMBIA BURKINA President Ismail Omar Guelleh consolidate his party and FASO DJIBOUTI cracks down after failed coup support in the army GUINEA-BISSAU and improves relations with BENIN Eritrea at the expense of GUINEA GHANA NIGERIA Ethiopia GUINEA CENTRAL ETHIOPIA SIERRA LEONE COTE TOGO AFRICAN Pop: 7.1m, GNP: $3,777m, Debt: $3,546m D’IVOIRE REP. SOMALIA Rebel threat to President CAMEROON LIBERIA Pop: 9.1m, GDP: $879m**, Debt: $2,635m Lansana Conte increases as SOMALIA Sierra Leone Ð Liberia war Preident Abdikassim will get spreads from the south-east EQUATORIAL GUINEA EQUAT.