How to Use Fibonacci Retracement to Predict Forex Market
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Forecasting Direction of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Two Dimensional Patterns and Currency Strength
FORECASTING DIRECTION OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS WITH TWO DIMENSIONAL PATTERNS AND CURRENCY STRENGTH A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY MUSTAFA ONUR ÖZORHAN IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PILOSOPHY IN COMPUTER ENGINEERING MAY 2017 Approval of the thesis: FORECASTING DIRECTION OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS WITH TWO DIMENSIONAL PATTERNS AND CURRENCY STRENGTH submitted by MUSTAFA ONUR ÖZORHAN in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Computer Engineering Department, Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Gülbin Dural Ünver _______________ Dean, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. Adnan Yazıcı _______________ Head of Department, Computer Engineering Prof. Dr. İsmail Hakkı Toroslu _______________ Supervisor, Computer Engineering Department, METU Examining Committee Members: Prof. Dr. Tolga Can _______________ Computer Engineering Department, METU Prof. Dr. İsmail Hakkı Toroslu _______________ Computer Engineering Department, METU Assoc. Prof. Dr. Cem İyigün _______________ Industrial Engineering Department, METU Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tansel Özyer _______________ Computer Engineering Department, TOBB University of Economics and Technology Assist. Prof. Dr. Murat Özbayoğlu _______________ Computer Engineering Department, TOBB University of Economics and Technology Date: ___24.05.2017___ I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name: MUSTAFA ONUR ÖZORHAN Signature: iv ABSTRACT FORECASTING DIRECTION OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS WITH TWO DIMENSIONAL PATTERNS AND CURRENCY STRENGTH Özorhan, Mustafa Onur Ph.D., Department of Computer Engineering Supervisor: Prof. -
Technical-Analysis-Bloomberg.Pdf
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Handbook 2003 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. 1 There are two principles of analysis used to forecast price movements in the financial markets -- fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis, depending on the market being analyzed, can deal with economic factors that focus mainly on supply and demand (commodities) or valuing a company based upon its financial strength (equities). Fundamental analysis helps to determine what to buy or sell. Technical analysis is solely the study of market, or price action through the use of graphs and charts. Technical analysis helps to determine when to buy and sell. Technical analysis has been used for thousands of years and can be applied to any market, an advantage over fundamental analysis. Most advocates of technical analysis, also called technicians, believe it is very likely for an investor to overlook some piece of fundamental information that could substantially affect the market. This fact, the technician believes, discourages the sole use of fundamental analysis. Technicians believe that the study of market action will tell all; that each and every fundamental aspect will be revealed through market action. Market action includes three principal sources of information available to the technician -- price, volume, and open interest. Technical analysis is based upon three main premises; 1) Market action discounts everything; 2) Prices move in trends; and 3) History repeats itself. This manual was designed to help introduce the technical indicators that are available on The Bloomberg Professional Service. Each technical indicator is presented using the suggested settings developed by the creator, but can be altered to reflect the users’ preference. -
Relative Volatility Index (RVI) – 2 Simple Trading Strategies
Relative Volatility Index (RVI) – 2 Simple Trading Strategies Have you ever heard of the RVI technical indicator? I am not talking about the relative vigor index, termed RVI or RVGI. I am referencing the relative volatility index! In this article, I am going to share with you how to use the relative volatility index in trading. Relative Volatility Index Definition The relative volatility index (RVI) was developed by Donald Dorsey, who truly understood that an indicator is not the holy grail of trading. The RVI is identical to the relative strength index, except it measures the standard deviation of high and low prices over a defined range of periods. The RVI can range from 0 to 100 and unlike many indicators that measure price movement, the RVI does an exceptional job of measuring market strength. Purpose of Relative Volatility Index The relative volatility index was designed not as a standalone indicator, but as a confirmation for trading signals. The RVI is most widely used in conjunction with moving average crossover signals. Relative Volatility Index Buy and Sell Signals Below are the rules that Dorsey developed for valid buy and sell signals when using the RVI: Buy if RVI > 50 Sell if RVI < 50 If you miss the first RVI buy signal buy when RVI > 60 If you miss the first RVI Sell signal sell when RVI < 40 Close a long position when the RVI falls below 40 Close a short position when the RVI rises above 60 Using the Directional Relative Volatility Index Formula Again, the relative volatility index indicator is not meant to be used as a standalone indicator for trading. -
The-Power-Of-Divergence.Pdf
Trading with the Trendlines The Power of Divergence DAVID CARLI ii Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. No information or opinion contained in this e-Book should be taken as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any currency, or other financial instruments or services. Past performance is no indication or guarantee of future performance. Copyright © Fifth edition April 2020 by David Carli. All rights reserved. This book or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of the publisher except for the use of brief quotations in a book review. First Printing: 2016 ISBN: 9798645292959 Website: www.tradingwithdavid.com E-mail: [email protected] iv DEDICATION My parents, who made me the person I am today. Introduction – About the Author 1 Introduction – About TradingView 3 Introduction – Preface 5 Chapter 1 – Chart 7 Chapter 2 – Some Technical Analysis 17 Chapter 3 – Commodity Channel Index 35 Chapter 4 – The Strategy 40 Chapter 6 – Money Management 64 Chapter 7 – Final Comments 69 Appendix A – Web Resources 74 David Carli is an Italian trader and independent financial analyst. He completed his studies at the University of Pisa, and he has released several successful books about trading. It is his success and knowledge that David wishes to pass on to other potential traders, helping them to avoid mistakes and succeed in the finance and investment markets. -
Forex Investement and Security
Investment and Securities Trading Simulation An Interactive Qualifying Project Report submitted to the Faculty of WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science by Jean Friend Diego Lugo Greg Mannke Date: May 1, 2011 Approved: Professor Hossein Hakim Abstract: Investing in the Foreign Exchange market, also known as the FOREX market, is extremely risky. Due to a high amount of people trying to invest in currency movements, just one unwatched position can result in a completely wiped out bank account. In order to prevent the loss of funds, a trading plan must be followed in order to gain a maximum profit in the market. This project complies a series of steps to become a successful FOREX trader, including setting stop losses, using indicators, and other types of research. 1 Acknowledgement: We would like to thank Hakim Hossein, Professor, Electrical & Computer Engineering Department, Worcester Polytechnic Institute for his guidance throughout the course of this project and his contributions to this project. 2 Table of Contents 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 6 1.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Project Description ............................................................................................................. 9 2 Background .................................................................................................................................. -
5-Step-Trading Fx ® Workbook
1 L E X¶S FAV O URI T E T E C H NI C A L T R A DIN G ST R AT E G I ES F O R F X - W O R K B O O K This workbook is intended to accompany the /H[¶VF avourite Technical Trading Strategies for F X - Applicable to Commodities and Equity Indexes as well online module. WORKBOOK QU ESTION: Why do you think technical indicators make trading less emotional and more objective? 2 Table of contents Types of traders ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 Technical indicators: Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 7 Technical indicators: Leading Indicators ................................................................................................................ 9 a) Support & Resistance, Fibonacci retracement levels and Floor Pivot points ............................................. 9 b) Relative Strength Index (RSI) .................................................................................................................. 13 c) Stochastic Oscillator ................................................................................................................................. 14 Technical indicators: Lagging Indicators .............................................................................................................. 16 a) Moving Averages ..................................................................................................................................... -
Predicting Support and Resistance Indicators for Stock Market with Fibonacci Sequence in Long Short-Term Memory
Journal of Computer Science Original Research Paper Predicting Support and Resistance Indicators for Stock Market with Fibonacci Sequence in Long Short-Term Memory 1Thambusamy Velmurugan and 2Thiruvalluvan Indhumathy 1Department of Computer Applications, D.G. Vaishnav College, Chennai, India 2Department of Computer Applications, D. G. Vaishnav College, Chennai-600106, Tamil Nadu India, India Article history Abstract: Predictive data analytics is a branch of data analytics where Received: 30-08-2020 models are designed that effectively interpret; anticipate outcomes by Revised: 26-10-2020 analyzing present data to make predictions about future. One of the major Accepted: 28-10-2020 attributes for prediction is time and there have been a considerable number of time series analytical models that are used for forecasting. Long Short- Corresponding Author: Thambusamy Velmurugan Term Memory (LSTM) is a deep learning model which is used as a time Department of Computer series model and this research work had made an attempt to apply Science, D.G. Vaishnav Fibonacci sequence for retracement of the support and resistance levels, one College, India of the commonly used trend indicators and used LSTM for predicting those Email: [email protected] levels. These levels help identify the uptrend or downtrend that decide the buying or holding of shares. For this purpose, datasets from financial sector was taken and split into 80% of training data and 20% of testing data for the analysis. The source of these datasets is Kaggle and each of these dataset has a total of 5021 instances from January 2000 till February 2020. Scaling of data was done, retracement of values using three Fibonacci percentages along with the starting and ending level was applied using the LSTM network. -
On Our Technical Watch
On Our Technical Watch 11 June 2021 By Lim Khai Xhiang l [email protected] Daily technical highlights – (KERJAYA, TECHBND) Daily Charting – KERJAYA (Trading Buy) About the Stock: Key Support & Resistance Levels Name Kerjaya Prospek 52 Week High/Low : 1.53/0.89 Last Price : RM1.23 : Group Bhd 3-m Avg. Daily Vol. : 2,068,586 Resistance : RM1.38 (R1) RM1.48 (R2) Bursa Code : KERJAYA Free Float (%) : 15% Stop Loss : RM1.10 CAT Code : 7161 Beta vs. KLCI : 1.0 Market Cap : RM1,522.0m Kerjaya Prospek Group Berhad (Trading Buy) • KERJAYA is principally involved in the construction of high-end commercial and high-rise residential buildings, property development and the manufacturing of lighting and kitchen solutions. • In FY20, the Group’s revenue fell 23% to RM811m and core net profit dropped 40% to RM90m. Its 1QFY21 results – with revenue of RM269m (+8% QoQ; +27% YoY) and core net profit of RM26m (-5% QoQ; +1% YoY) – were below expectations, affected by margin squeeze mainly due to elevated steel costs. • Still, looking ahead, consensus is expecting KERJAYA’s net profit to grow by 39% and 28% to RM125m and RM161m in FY21 and FY22, respectively. This translates to forward PERs of 12.2x this year and 9.5x next year respectively, compared to the 5-year historical mean of 12.3x. • Technically speaking, from a peak of RM1.53 in mid-April, the stock fell (likely due to renewed fears of economic lockdowns) to as low as RM1.08. • Following which, in mid-May, the stock found support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of RM1.19. -
Technical Analysis
DURATION & FEES STRUCTURE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - [PART-1 & 2] FEES: RS.12,000/- DURATION: TOTAL THEORY 20-25 HRS [SCHEDULE: 2-3HRS/DAY ON ALL WEEK DAYS] Followed by online practical orientation up to 3 months through live markets. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS-[PART-1 & 2] FEES: RS.12,000/- DURATION: TOTAL THEORY 20-25 HRS [SCHEDULE: 2-3HRS/DAY ON ALL WEEK DAYS] Followed by online practical orientation up to 3 months through live markets. GROUP DISCOUNTS 10% Discount on course fee for group of 2 25% Discount on course fee for group of 4 **** PLEASE NOTE: DISCOUNTS ON COMBINED COURSE FEES CAN BE DISCUSSED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: PART-1 COURSE CONTENTS: Background Overview Technical Analysis, what is it? Setting expectations Introducing Technical Analysis Overview Application of asset types Assumption in Technical Analysis The Trade Summary The Chart Types Overview The Line and Bar Chart History of the Japanese Candlestick Candlestick Anatomy A note on time frames Getting started with Candlesticks History tends to repeat itself - The big assumption Candlestick patterns and what to expect Few assumptions specific to candlesticks Single candlestick patterns (Part 1) Overview The Marubozu 1 Bullish Marubozu The Stop-loss on Bullish Marubozu Bearish Marubuzo The trade trap Single candlestick patterns (Part 2) The Spinning Top Spinning tops in a downtrend Spinning tops in an uptrend The Dojis Single Candlestick Patterns (Part 3) Paper Umbrella The Hammer formation The Hanging Man My experience with a Paper Umbrella The -
Do Predictive Power of Fibonacci Retracements Help the Investor to Predict Future? a Study of Pakistan Stock Exchange
Open Access Austin Journal of Business Administration and Management Research Article Do Predictive Power of Fibonacci Retracements Help the Investor to Predict Future? A Study of Pakistan Stock Exchange Zafarullah SR* and Nabeeha Z School of Accounting and Finance, University of Central Abstract Punjab, Pakistan There are number of ways like Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis *Corresponding author: Shaker Rana Zafarullah, and The Efficient Market Hypothesis that helps to know the behaviour of investor School of Accounting and Finance, University of Central which helps to predict future. In this study author used Fibonacci numbers/ Punjab, Pakistan series analysis which consider for forecasting future stock prices trends. For the purpose of this study four listed companies are selected at random by Received: March 26, 2018; Accepted: May 21, 2018; convenience sampling from Cement Sector for the period of 1st quarter of Published: May 28, 2018 2017. Closing prices of open days of market are taken from Karachi Stocks and graphs are made. This study concluded that in four companies of cement sector, there were total 63 support levels out of which 17 (27%) and total 66 resistance level from which 24 (36%) were followed Fibonacci retracements. So the study findings accept the hypothesis that the trend reversals in Cement sector listed in PSX follow Fibonacci retracements to some extent. Analysis of this study showed that there is at least one strong support and one strong resistance in every company and some small resistant and support levels. Keywords: Fibonacci retracements; Support; Resistance; Technical Analysis; Forecasting Introduction investment. security either it is undervalued or overvalued and helps to the investor for making best suitable future investments safe for Every investor wants to get more return on his investments them [6]. -
Glossary of Technical Analysis Terms
George Davis, CMT 13 September 2011 Chief Technical Analyst RBC Dominion Securities Inc. +1 416 842 6633 [email protected] Glossary of Technical Analysis Terms Our Glossary of Technical Analysis Terms describes and illustrates some of the basic tenets of technical analysis. Many of these tenets are incorporated in the methodology that we use to analyze financial markets. As such, the Glossary is meant to serve as a handy reference guide for clients that can be kept in order to clarify the definition(s) of the terminology and technical concepts that we use in our research reports. “It follows then that if everything that affects market price is ultimately reflected in market price, then the study of that market price is all that is necessary.” “One of the great strengths of technical analysis is its adaptability to virtually any trading medium and time dimension.” John J. Murphy in Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, pp. 3, 7, New York Institute of Finance, c.1986. Technical Analysis: An Alternative Approach to Market Forecasting Source: Tradermade International Ltd. See RBC’s research at www.rbcinsight.com. 13 September 2011 Glossary of Technical Analysis Terms Table of Contents Glossary of Technical Analysis Terms............................................. 1 Table of Contents ............................................................................... 2 Introduction ........................................................................................ 3 Types of Charts ................................................................................. -
Technical Analysis for Volatile Times
638855738 Webinar Presentation Technical analysis for volatile times BROKERAGE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BROKERAGE: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Important Information Any screenshots, charts, or company trading symbols mentioned are provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for the security. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Technical analysis focuses on market action – specifically, volume and price. Technical analysis is only one approach to analyzing stocks. When considering which stocks to buy or sell, you should use the approach that you're most comfortable with. As with all your investments, you must make your own determination as to whether an investment in any particular security or securities is right for you based on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC, 900 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917 © 2020 FMR LLC. All rights reserved. 916551.1.1 2 Getting Started with Technical Analysis Learn the assumptions that guide technical analysis, and get to know the basics of trend trading. Understanding Indicators in Technical Analysis Identify the various types of technical indicators, including trend, momentum, volume, volatility, and support and resistance. Technical Identifying Chart Patterns with Technical Analysis Use charts and learn chart patterns through specific examples of Analysis important patterns in bar and candlestick charts. Webinar Managing Risk with Technical Analysis Series Manage your trading risk with a range of confirmation methods. 3 Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT, is president of Kirkpatrick & Company, Inc., a technical analysis research firm that publishes the Market Strategist investment newsletter.