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Understanding China's Future PALACKÝ UNIVERSITY OLOMOUC PHILOSOPHICAL FACULTY Department of Politics and European Studies UNDERSTANDING CHINA’S FUTURE: A CRITICAL EXPLORATION OF FUTURE- ORIENTATED APPROACHES TO ANALYSING SOCIO-POLITICAL PHENOMENA Doctoral Thesis Jeremy Garlick, M.A. Supervisor: Gaudenz Assenza, D.Phil. (Oxon), M.P.A. (Harvard) Olomouc, 2014 Declaration: I hereby declare that this thesis is entirely my own work and I have faithfully and accurately cited all sources used to the utmost of my ability. ………………………………………………. Jeremy Garlick, M.A. 2 Abstract This thesis has two main aims. The first of these is to study available methodologies for researching the future in the social sciences, and particularly in political science and international relations (IR). To be more specific, it attempts to determine whether it is possible to establish, given the present state of scientific knowledge, a relatively rigorous method for examining the futures of socio-political phenomena. The second aim is to set out to use the methodological approach(es) established in the first part of the study to examine the future of China, both as an applied example of the use of the methodology as well as an end in itself within IR’s sub-field of China studies. Thus, the thesis fits within the areas of future studies and China studies, but with a particular focus on the implications of the research for political science and IR within the broader social sciences. The research reveals that the most suitable candidate for researching socio-political futures, at least until computer modelling and complexity theory are refined enough to examine the future with greater accuracy (if this is possible), is scenario construction, given that it deals not with prediction of definite outcomes, but with future possibilities. Since scenario construction, however, is a faute de mieux methodology (meaning that, despite inadequacies, it is less inadequate than the alternatives), there is a need to develop it further. The thesis’ primary research attempts to do this by taking and adapting Delphi method’s premise that consensus expert opinion can, at least to a degree, act as a counterweight to individual bias, and thereby constructing scenarios on the basis of a typology of expert forecasts. The main part of the research thus focuses on constructing scenarios of China’s future out of a typology of expert forecasts concerning China’s development up to 2050. The ultimate goals are to assess the degree of success of the resulting scenario construction project, and to develop a basis for further research into both China’s future in particular and the study of socio- political futures in general. Keywords: China, scenario construction, future studies, international relations 3 Acknowledgements: I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr Gaudenz Assenza, for his invaluable guidance in the creation of this thesis. I am also indebted to the staff of the Department of Politics and European Studies of Palacký University for their support and encouragement throughout the research process. 4 CONTENTS List of figures and tables 8 List of abbreviations 9 Note on use of Chinese language 10 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Overview and problem statement (including research questions) 11 1.2 The structure and content of the thesis 15 CHAPTER 2: THEORY 2.1 Overview: the future and China 31 2.2 Theories of the future: an overview 32 2.21 In the natural sciences 33 2.22 In the social sciences 37 2.23 In political science & international relations 45 2.3 Conclusion and summary 56 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 3.1 Overview 57 3.2 Basic methodological foundations: quantitative, qualitative, or a combination of both? 60 3.3 Evaluating quantitative methodologies: can they be utilised to examine the future? 62 3.4 Evaluating qualitative methodologies for investigating the future: what are the options? 75 3.5 Evaluating future-specific methodologies: alternative approaches 81 5 3.6 Evaluating scenario construction: envisaging alternative future outcomes without predicting 87 3.7 Building a research design framework based on scenario construction 94 3.8 Conclusion and summary 105 CHAPTER 4: CHINA, PAST AND PRESENT 4.1 Introduction: defining the scope of the analysis 107 4.2 Analysis of the China literature: an overview 110 4.21 China’s culture and society 111 4.22 China’s scientific development 120 4.23 China’s environment 126 4.24 China’s economy 135 4.25 China’s domestic politics 143 4.26 China’s international politics 156 4.3 Identifying major trends (past and present) 169 4.4 Identifying key uncertainties (into the future) 172 4.5 Conclusion and summary 173 CHAPTER 5: TYPOLOGY OF EXPERT FORECASTS AND CONSTRUCTION OF FINAL ‘LEARNING’ SCENARIOS 5.1 Introduction: constructing scenario themes 174 5.2 Selection of the ‘panel’ of experts 179 5.3 Criteria for assessing expert forecasts 184 5.4 The typology of forecasts: an overview 185 5.41 ‘China collapse’ forecasts 187 5.42 ‘China stagnates’ forecasts 190 5.43 ‘China threat’ forecasts 194 5.44 ‘Peaceful rise’ forecasts 198 5.45 Analysis of the remaining experts 208 5.5 Analysis of the typology to assess its suitability for 6 the purposes of scenario construction 211 5.6 Check for consistency and plausibility: re-evaluation of the typology with reference to key trends and uncertainties 215 5.7 Development of the final ‘learning’ scenarios 220 5.71 Scenario 1: ‘China in chaos’ 221 5.72 Scenario 2: ‘Democratic transition’ 223 5.73 Scenario 3: ‘Clash of the titans’ 224 5.74 Scenario 4: ‘Living with the dragon’ 226 5.8 Conclusion and summary 228 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION 6.1 Overview 229 6.2 Critical analysis of the scenario construction project 230 6.3 Critical analysis of the research project as a whole 236 6.4 Summing-up: implications for future research 240 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL REFERENCES 243 7 List of figures and tables Figures Figure 1: Incomplete research design flowchart 95 Figure 2: The realm of future possibilities (Sherden) 100 Figure 3: Scenario construction process 103 Figure 4: Complete research design flowchart 105 Figure 5: Defining the scope of the analysis 110 Figure 6: The Warring States period and the Qin unification of China (278-221 BCE) 113 Figure 7: Map of China, showing core and peripheral areas 128 Figure 8: Satellite photograph of the People’s Republic of China 129 Figure 9: China’s population distribution in 1990 and (projected) in 2030 142 Tables Table 1: The selected ‘panel’ of experts on China’s past, present and future 183 Table 2: Working typology of scenario themes based on expert China forecasts 211 Table 3: Revised typology of scenario themes based on expert China forecasts 214 Table 4: Extended typology of scenario themes showing the extent of ‘expert panel’ support 219 8 List of abbreviations BCE Before the Common Era (formerly BC) CASS Chinese Academy of Social Sciences CCTV China Central Television (China’s state broadcasting service) CE Common Era (formerly AD) CEE Central and Eastern Europe CIA Central Intelligence Agency CCP Chinese Communist Party FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product IR International relations LDP Liberal Democratic Party (of Japan) PLA People’s Liberation Army PRC People’s Republic of China SEZ Special Economic Zone SNWTP South-North Water Transfer Project SOE State-owned enterprise WTO World Trade Organization 9 Note on use of Chinese language The transliteration of Chinese language in this thesis has for the most part been done according to the official system for romanisation used by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which is known as pinyin. The pinyin system is generally used in modern scholarly works in English, and this thesis thus conforms to the established academic norm for transliteration of Chinese terms and words. Pinyin, it should be noted, differs from both the earlier Wade-Giles system and the Czech system for transcribing Chinese. However, some names, such as ‘Chiang Kai-Shek’ and ‘Kuomintang’, are left in the form used before the advent of pinyin for reasons of conventional usage and familiarity. Chinese characters are presented in the official simplified form used in the PRC and Singapore, rather than the traditional form generally used in Taiwan and Hong Kong. 10 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Overview and problem statement (including research questions) The starting point for this thesis is an attempt to understand the future of China. This is how the project was originally conceived and planned and how, ultimately, it will be carried through to its conclusion. Thus from the outset there are two connected strands to the research, which immediately present themselves as two main research questions: (i) How does one research the future in political science, IR and the social sciences?; and (ii) What is the best way to examine the future course of China’s development? However, once one considers these two research questions in relation to the literature (which will be analysed in depth later in this introduction as well as in subsequent chapters) it soon becomes evident that, although understanding China’s future is in itself a tremendously difficult and enormous task, the more problematic element of the research is going to be how to find a way to analyse the future within the academic sphere of the examination of socio-political phenomena. There are two main reasons for the intrinsic difficulty of studying the future in the social sciences. The first is related to methodological concerns: put simply, how does one analyse phenomena which have not yet occurred, and therefore have not produced any empirical data which can be studied? The future appears as a blank page yet to be filled, therefore containing no information to be examined. Merely establishing what data (past trends? present trends?) one is going to study is therefore extremely difficult.
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