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Singapore Investment Q1 2020

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Singapore Investment Q1 2020 M A R K E T B E AT SINGAPORE Capital Markets Q1 2020 YoY Investment Volume Remained Muted in Q1 Chg Investment volume remained muted in 1Q2020 with a transaction volume of $3.07 billion, representing a 36% reduction in volume q-o-q. The residential sector took the lead with an investment volume of $2.02 billion, double the previous quarter’s 3.07B -31.8% YTD Investment Volume (SGD) volume. The surge in volume was mainly attributed to the award of numerous residential GLS sites during the quarter, resulting in the public sector accounting for 68% of the total residential volume. 2,920 0.0% Office Capital Value (SGD/sf) The industrial sector had the second highest transaction volume of $661.4 million, a moderate decline of 15% q-o-q. The commercial sector followed behind at $183.4 million, a significant reduction of 81% q-o-q. The hospitality sector clocked no 3.20% 0.0% deals during the quarter, as the travel bans and lockdowns resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant drop in Office Net Yield investor enthusiasm for hospitality assets. Absence of Big Ticket Commercial Transactions Big ticket commercial transactions were absent during 1Q2020 due to the decrease in market sentiment from the COVID-19 ECONOMIC INDICATORS pandemic and the rapid sell-off in stock markets across the globe. Sellers were unwilling to lower prices significantly as they Q4 2019 were hoping that the economic downturn would be temporary and there would be a rapid recovery in market confidence after YoY 12-Mo. the pandemic was contained. Meanwhile, buyers were waiting on the sidelines to enter at more attractive prices as it is Chg Forecast appearing increasingly likely that the reduction in economic activity from lockdowns will trigger a global recession. 1.0% GDP growth Nevertheless, there were still several strata deals of palatable quantum. In the largest office deal of the quarter, a South Korean high net worth individual acquired the 11th floor of Samsung Hub from Sun Venture for $49.8 million. This $3,800 psf achieved was a record price for the 999-year leasehold property, exceeding the previous high of $3,550 psf in 2018. Another 0.6% notable strata deal was Hong Realty’s divestment of the 10th floor in Suntec Tower One to the Rosa family for $37.1 million CPI growth or $2,580 psf. This represented a 26% gain from Hong Realty’s purchase price of $29.5 million back in 2018. INVESTMENT VOLUME BY CAPITAL SOURCE INVESTMENT VOLUME BY SECTOR 1.29% 10-year government 20 20 bond rate 15 15 Source: MTI, MAS 10 10 SGD (billion) SGD 5 SGD (billion) SGD 5 0 0 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional Non-institutional Developer Hospitality Mixed/Others M A R K E T B E AT SINGAPORE Capital Markets Q1 2020 Grade A CBD Office Capital Value Ascendas REIT Active Despite Weak Market Sentiment $3,500 Despite the general caution in market sentiment, Ascendas REIT was still active during the quarter. In the largest private sector deal, Ascendas REIT acquired a 25% stake in Galaxis for $157.5 million or $963 psf. As the balance stake of $3,000 Galaxis is currently held by sponsor CapitaLand, there could be a future injection of the remaining 75% into the REIT in $2,500 subsequent quarters. Meanwhile, Ascendas REIT sold Wisma Gulab to Heap Seng Group for $88.0 million and 25 Changi SGD/sf South Street 1 to Hao Mart for $20.3 million. These divestments were part of its strategy to recycle capital into better $2,000 performing assets. $1,500 2020 Investment Volume To Take A Significant Tumble The muted tone in the investment market during the quarter is expected to continue, as investment activity in 2Q2020 will be hampered by the government-imposed lockdown on non-essential services during the month of April. If the chain of transmission is not broken, there is the possibility that the lockdown could be further extended to the rest of the quarter. Grade A CBD Office Net Yield 4.0% In tandem with the peaking of office rents, the Grade A CBD office capital value declined marginally to $2,920 psf, while yields remained stable at 3.20%. Although the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to zero, office yields 3.5% may not see significant further reductions due to the decrease in investor demand. % With a looming global recession, the 2020 investment volume is expected to take a significant tumble to between $10- 3.0% $15 billion as buyers stay on the sidelines. On a more optimistic note, the decline in interest rates could lead to a rapid return of investment activity in 2021 once investor sentiment recovers after the pandemic is contained. 2.5% PRICE PROPERTY LOCATION PURCHASER VENDOR SECTOR (SGD MN) (Based on 99-year leasehold tenure) Samsung Hub South Korean Raffles Place Sun Venture Office $49.8 CHRISTINE LI (11th floor) HNWI Head of Research, Singapore & Southeast Asia +65 6232 0815 /[email protected] Suntec Tower One City Hall / Rosa family Hong Realty Office $37.1 (10th floor) Marina Centre SHAUN POH Executive Director, Capital Markets, Singapore +65 6232 0882 /[email protected] Biopolis Phase 6 one-north Ho Bee Land JTC Corporation Industrial $223.6 A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION ©2020 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The Galaxis (25% stake) one-north Ascendas REIT Mitsui & Co Industrial $157.5 information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy. Wisma Gulab City Fringe Heap Seng Group Ascendas REIT Industrial $88.0 cushmanwakefield.com.
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