Signature of Global Warming on Dynamics of Anchovy Engraulis Japonicus Stock in the Yellow Sea
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2017 PICES MEETING, VLADIVOSTOK, RUSSIA Signature of Global Warming on Dynamics of Anchovy Engraulis japonicus Stock in the Yellow Sea Xiu-juan Shan, Xian-shi Jin, Yun-long Chen, Tao Yang Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Qingdao 266071; Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237; Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute 1 The oceans are changing rapidly Global “warming unequivocal” “Very high confidence that due to forcing by human activities”;By 2100, temperatures could increase by 1.1°C – 6.4°C Sea levels may rise by 18 to 59 cm. Recent studies (Nature geoscience & Science) suggests sea level rise could be at 80 to 200 cm Help!!! Climate change Atmospheric surface temperature anomaly (average 2005-2015 relative to 1951-1980) The rapid warming in 1982–2006 was confined to the Subarctic Gyre, European Seas, and East Asian Seas. The most rapid warming was observed in the land-locked or semi-enclosed European and East Asian Seas (Baltic Sea, North Sea, Black Sea, Japan Sea/East Sea, and East China Sea) and also over the Newfoundland–Labrador Shelf. (Belkin, 2009) Data source: NASA SST warming in the Yellow Sea SST in the Yellow Sea increased by 0.67 during 1982-2006 (Belkin,2009) ℃ SST in the Yellow Sea increased by 1.4-1.9 during 1977-2007, the rise of SST gradulately increased from the Yellow ℃Sea to the Bohai Sea(Huang, 2010) Effects of Climate change on fish Marine Fisheries Directly affect Fish Production Hydrology Rainfall Temperature Anchovy in the Yellow Sea Multi-stressors during anchovy life history Reclamati on Spawning, Hatching Pollution Fish larvae and juvenile feeding Overfishi ng Overwintering Climate change Anchovy Japanese anchovy in the YS showed opposite changing trend when compared with northern anchovy Japanese anchovy in Yellow Sea Jia & Sun, 2008 Water temperature significantly impacted anchovy distribution 0 17-2000 17-2200 18-0000 18-0200 18-0400 18-0600 18-0800 18-1000 18-1200 18-1400 18-1600 18-1800 18-2000 -5 20.5 20 19.5 19 -10 18.5 18 17.5 17 -15 16.5 16 15.5 -20 15 14.5 (35°01.9′N、120°32.9′E 14 13.5 -25 13 海区) 12.5 -30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 600 500 网) / 400 300 200 鳀鱼鱼卵数量(粒 100 Amount of anchovy eggs (Ind./haul) of anchovy Amount 0 20 22 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 观测时间 Time of observation 下混合层 温跃层 上混合层 下混合层 温跃层 上混合层 下混合层 温跃层 上混合层 100.00 100.00 100.00 ° ′ 、 35°00.3′N 、 35 01.9 N 35°03.1′N 、 80.00 80.00120°32.9′E ) 80.00 120°41.0′E 120°25.9′E % 65.22 % 64.56 % 60.00 82.59 % 60.00 60.00 40.00 40.00 5.49 % 40.00 20.00 鳀鱼卵数量(%) 20.00 20.00 鳀鱼卵数量(%) 29.09 % 鳀鱼卵数量( 6.35 % 11.92 % 22.15 % 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.63 % Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Z10 Z11 Z3-1Z12Z3-3Z13Z3-5 Z3-7 Z3-9 Z5 Z9 Z12 Z16 Z20 Z24 Z28 Z32 Z36 Z40 Z44 Z47 Z51 Z3-11 Z2-13 Z3-15 Z3-17 Z3-19 Z3-21 Z3-23 Z3-25 Z3-27 Z3-29 Z3-31 观测站位 观测站位 观测站位 (Wan et al,2008) 2002年6月20-21日水团追踪观测 2003年6月17-18日水团追踪观测 2003年6月27-30日水团追踪观测 鳀鱼卵数量的空间分布 鳀鱼卵数量的空间分布 鳀鱼卵数量的空间分布 Mortality of Japanese anchovy egg Natural Egg number Sea areas Survey time mortality rate (ind) (%) 2000/06/13-06/18 28,907 83.41 2001/05/16-07/6 86,872 84.87 Southern Shandong 2002/06/05-06/20 51,231 81.34 peninsula 2003/06/11-06/17 175,115 80.42 2004/06/10-06/19 124,510 75.22 Since the 1990s, the mortalityTotal of Japanese466,635 anchovy egg80.15 2006/09 344 77.33 Yellow in Sea the Yellow Sea greatly2007/08 increased-- 3,473 77.66 1985-1988 (64%) Total 3,817 77.63 2003/05 116,194 82.52 1998-2000(83%) 2004/05 8,391 87.7 2005/06 4,311 70.38 Laizhou 2000 Bay- 2008(77-88%) 2006/05 11,575 87.02 2008/05-06 10,035 84.68 Total 150,506 82.95 East China Sea and 2001/03/26-04/24 14,379 88.09 Yellow Sea Yellow Sea 1998/05/15-2000/12/18 59,838 83.57 1998/05/25-10/16 118,933 91.33 Bohai Sea 1992/08/08-1993/06/07 2,722,102 85.61 Yellow Sea 1985/03/11-1988/06/14 800,999 64.10 Data source from YSFRI Interannual changes of anchovy Biomass biomass in the Yellow Sea 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 百万吨 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2010 1986.1 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1995-96 1998-99 1999-00 1984-85 1994-95 Zhao, X等. 2003.. Fisheries Oceanography, 12 (4-5);金显仕等 2001. 中国水产科学 ,8(3) Jin, et al, 2006 2000-2001年 桡足类 copepods (50.8%) <1993年 磷虾类 Euphausiacea ( ) 中华蜇水蚤 47.2% Calanus sinicus 樱虾类 (23.6%) Sakura shrimp (1.3%) 真刺唇角水蚤 Labidocera euchaeta Feeding (18.4%) 强壮箭虫 Sagitta crassa (15.0%) 细螯虾 Leptoehela graeilis (11.3%) 小拟哲水蚤 双壳类幼体 长额刺糠虾 Paracalanus Bivalve Acanthomysis parvus larvae longirostris 黄渤海鳀主要饵料(杨纪明,2001;张波,2005) (8.4%) (3.0%) (7.7%) Anchovy in the Yellow Sea Zhang & Tang, 2004; Zhang et al, 2012; Zhang et al, 2013 14 Reproduction 35000 35000 1985-1986 1985-1986 A B 30000 30000 2002-2004 2002-2004 粒 25000 / 25000 粒 / 20000 20000 15000 15000 个体生殖力 10000 个体绝对生殖力 10000 5000 5000 0 0 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 叉长/mm 纯重/g The absolute fecundity and A:with fork length;B:with pure body weight. The absolute fecundity of Japanese anchovy in 2002-2004 was significantly higher than that in 1985-1986 in the Yellow Sea. Yang, 2012 Distribution projection of wintering anchovy stock in the Yellow Sea (RCP 2.6) Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (revised by Cheung, 2008) 2013 2020 39.5°N 2.58° 2030 1.13° 2050 Distribution projection of wintering anchovy stock in the Yellow Sea (RCP 8.5) 39.5°N 2.67° 2013 2050 2030 1.28° 2020 Some ongoing works Separate the effects of climate change with the other factors; Climate change-induced evolution in fishery species in the Yellow Sea; Signature of climate change on fishery species diversity in China coastal waters; Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute 19 Acknowledgements Dr. Xianshi Jin Prof. Bo Zhang Dr. Zhongyi Li Dr. Qun Lin Dr. Xiaodong Bian Dr. Qing Wu Dr. Yunlong Chen Dr.William Cheung Fangqun Dai Thank you for your attention! Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences 中国水产科学研究院黄海水产研究所;www.ysfri.ac.cn .