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Documentos De Seguridad Y Defensa 66. Geopolítica Del Ártico. Dos Security and Defence Instituto Dossiers 66 Español de Estudios Geopolitics of the Artic. Estratégicos Two complementary visions. Spain-Singapore MINISTRY OF DEFENCE Security and Defence Spanish Dossiers 66 Institute for Strategic Geopolitics of the Artic. Studies Two complementary visions. Spain-Singapore MINISTRY OF DEFENCE GENERAL CATALOGUE OF OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS http://www.publicacionesoficiales.boe.es/ Publishes: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA http://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/ © Author and Publisher, 2014 NIPO: 083-14-246-7 (print on demand) NIPO: 083-14-245-1 (e-book edition) Publication date: december 2014 ISBN: 978-84-9091-007-8 (e-book edition) The authors are solely responsible for the opinions expresed in the articles in this publication. The exploitation righits of this work are protected by the Spanish Intellectual Property Act. No parts of this publication may be produced, stored or transmitted in any way nor by any means, electronic, mechanical or print, including photo- copies or any other means without prior, express, written consent of the © copyright holders. CONTENTS Página Prologue Security and defense document. Spain-Singapore international research group ............................................................................................... 7 Ignacio García Sánchez The Arctic: the geopolitical challenge of the 21st century. Two views: one from the east, another from the west .......................................................... 7 Chapter one Common conclusions .......................................................................................... 11 The Arctic is evolving owing to climate change ................................................ 11 Despite the uncertainty of when and how many changes will occur, there is growing interest in the Arctic. Exclusion versus inclusion ................. 11 The Arctic is a space of cooperation. Equilibrium ............................................. 12 Arctic governance: the main stumbling block ................................................... 12 China has gained prominence on becoming an observer ............................... 12 China has softened the tone of its declarations on the Arctic ....................... 13 The european union’s disappointment at the rejection of its application for observer status ........................................................................................... 13 Spanish interests in the Arctic .............................................................................. 13 Singapore interests in the Arctic .......................................................................... 14 In future the law of the sea is likely to be adapted in favour of the most powerful states .................................................................................................. 14 Chapter two Geopolitics of the Arctic. Special Reference: Spanish interests in the Arctic region ............................................................................................. 15 Dr. Elena Conde Pérez 5 Página Introduction ................................................................................................................ 15 Opportunities and risks derived from the process of climate change in the arctic region ....................................................................................................... 16 Interests of the Arctic states and of third states in the Arctic region. Spe- cial reference to the interests of the european union .............................. 19 a) The interests of the Arctic States. Special reference to the Arctic Council .......................................................................................................... 19 b) The interests of the European Union in the Arctic.................................... 21 The interests of Spain in the Arctic ...................................................................... 24 a) Fishing resources in the Arctic .................................................................... 25 b) Scientific interests of Spain in the Arctic .................................................. 28 c) Ocean passages as a mechanism to favor commercial traffic and the exploitation of resources. Interests of Spain ......................................... 29 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................ 31 Chapter three The Political Tug-Of-War on Arctic Governance: China’s Journey to Permanent Observer Status ..................................................................... 35 By Francois Perreault INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 35 Section I ...................................................................................................................... 37 The arctic’s geopolitical landscape ................................................................. 37 The Arctic states’ strategic postures .............................................................. 38 Section II ..................................................................................................................... 42 China’s Arctic interests ..................................................................................... 42 Political interests ............................................................................................... 43 Environmental and scientific interests ........................................................... 43 Economic interests ............................................................................................. 44 National security interests ............................................................................... 45 Section III .................................................................................................................... 46 Political implications ......................................................................................... 46 A political tug-of-war on Arctic governance .................................................. 46 The evolution of the “outsiders’” discourse and the making of policy ...... 47 The Arctic states’ policy responses and China’s active diplomacy ........... 50 Ilulissat, Chelsey and the Arctic 5 ................................................................... 50 Deferrals, criterions and omissions ................................................................ 52 China’s Active Diplomacy .................................................................................. 53 May 15, 2013 ....................................................................................................... 54 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 54 Security and Defence Dossiers ....................................................................... 61 6 Security and defense document Prologue Spain-Singapore international research group Ignacio García Sánchez Captain, Spanish Navy Deputy Director Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies The Arctic: the geopolitical challenge of the 21st century. Two views: one from the east, another from the west The paper herein presented is one more of the results of the Annual Research Plan 2014 of the Superior Center National Defense Studies (CESEDEN), whose objective is “to convert the CESEDEN, through the IEEE (Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies), into a national and inter- national reference point for strategic thought, capable of influencing the society and contributing to national planning of all issues related to security.”1 Through the Spanish Ambassador to Singapore, Federico Palomera Güez, the Institute, in January of 2007, opened relations with the Raja- ratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) of the Nanyang Technolog- ical University (NTU) and more specifically with its Institute for Defense Strategic Studies (IDSS)2, which was at the same time one of its founding elements. 1 IG 30-08 (2nd Revision). RESEARCH ACTIVITIES OF THE SUPERIOR CENTER FOR NA- TIONAL DEFENSE STUDIES (CESEDEN). 2 http://www.rsis.edu.sg/research/idss/ 7 Ignacio García Sánchez The initial conversations between the two Institutions3 settled on the preparation of a joint research paper on one of the major geopolitical is- sues of the future, the Arctic. Its selection had, in addition to its undoubted geopolitical interest, several aspects which increased that initial interest with undeniable elements of opportunity which could redound to a great- er mutual benefit. Singapore, together with China, Japan, South Korea, and India were ad- mitted as permanent observers on the Arctic Council in May of 2013, a status which Spain, along with other European countries, had enjoyed for nearly ten years. This decision of the Council was no more than a demon- stration of the growing interest of Far Eastern countries in playing a lead- ing role in the new geopolitical order at a global level, in clear accord with their economic weight at an international level, with a tendency showing a progressive increase in the importance of this region in an international context. These two points of view, Eastern and Western, are without doubt a suf- ficient appeal. In addition, however, both countries, Spain and Singapore, are countries with an undeniable maritime tradition, and in our respective Gross National Products, the Naval sector holds a fundamental impor- tance. Traffic through our ports would no doubt be
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