Russia’s Race for the Arctic and the New Geopolitics of the North Pole

By Pavel Baev October 2007 Occasional Paper

October 2007 October Pavel Baev Pavel

New Geopolitics of the North Pole of the North Geopolitics New Russia’s Race for the Arctic and the and the Race for the Arctic Russia’s The Jamestown Foundation Papers reflect the views of their authors, not those of The Jamestown Foundation. Jamestown The of Occasional those not Foundation. authors, their Jamestown of views the The reflect Papers with associated or sponsored event or conference a of result the as or Foundation Jamestown The with associated scholars and analysts by created be may papers community.These policy the to valuable be to believes Foundation Jamestown The that reports and essays are Papers Occasional ffiil r nelgne hnes epcal i rgr t Ersa n terrorism. and Eurasia to regard in especially channels, intelligence or official through available always, not is but be, should that information of source only the often is It agenda. or sources, filter bias, primary political without and delivered Jamestown’sis material indigenous Utilizing information. such to access restrict frequently that and States United the to important tactically or strategically are that societies those in trends and events about community policy broader the and policymakers educate and inform to is Foundation Jamestown The of mission The The Jamestown Foundation’s Mission tel: (202)483-8888 •fax:(202)483-8337 1111 16thSt. NW, Suite 320 Washington, DC 20036 • www.jamestown.org • * Occasional Paper The goal of rm that some Pavel Baev Pavel A multilateral deal A nd it useful to s claim is energy, since s claim is energy, cially, Moscow has Moscow has cially, s exclusive economic zone. s exclusive economic 3 Executive Summary Executive of underwater terrain between the Lomonosov and Mendeleev ridges are the between the Lomonosov and of underwater terrain 2 It is widely believed that the main driving force behind Russia’ It is widely believed that the main The symbolic planting of the Russian flag on the seabed close to the geographic North close to the geographic North on the seabed of the Russian flag The symbolic planting In fact, however, this particular expedition had minimal scientific content but played a prominent scientific this particular expedition had minimal In fact, however, assertive foreign policy. Arctic dimension to Russia’s role in adding an reserves of hydrocarbons. Arctic shelf could contain significant research indicates that the in the Barents Sea and the is in no rush to develop even the proven fields , however, Gazprom production. It is within the major breakthrough in off-shore government is not planning any continuation of the Siberian shelf and thus could be added to Russia’ Siberian shelf and thus could continuation of the endowment. defy Russia’s unilateralism not only by blocking its request in the CLCS but also by pursuing a unilateralism not only by blocking its request in defy Russia’s combination of containment and cooperation. Kennan-style course based on a be a natural solution, but in fact national sectors might appear to Arctic into five on dividing the key problem is not about sharing Antarctic model is more promising, particularly since the the in preserving the common resources but about joining efforts profits from developing abundant North. It is obvious, though, that the current rush to the Northern frontier is driven by other North. It is obvious, though, that which justify the application of such risky instruments factors, domestic as well as geopolitical, Norway, Arctic states—Denmark, The four Aviation. as combat patrolling by the Long-Range by the UK and other allies, might fi Canada and the United States—supported realm of possibility that in some 30 years the ice cap could become much thinner but the demand 30 years the ice cap could become much thinner but the demand realm of possibility that in some as to justify their production at enormous costs in the High on oil and gas would remain so high 460,000 mi Pole on August 2, 2007, has received a disproportionate amount of media coverage and triggered amount of media coverage 2, 2007, has received a disproportionate August Pole on criticism. Offi domestically as well as international massive jubilation Law of the Sea Convention. acted in full compliance with the maintained that it to the UN evidence for resubmitting of expeditions is to collect scientific the on-going series (CLCS) its request to confi the Limits of the Continental Shelf Commission on The Jamestown Foundation Russian PresidentPutin and ForeignMinisterSergei Lavrov wereinfactquitecautioustheir iota ofdifference” (U.S.StateDepartmentDeputySpokesman Tom Casey)[3].However, both they wentandspray-paintedaflag ofRussiaonthose particularridgesisgoingtomakeone claiming thisterritory’”(CanadianForeignMinister PeterMacKay),orclarifi tactics arenolongervalid:‘You can’t go aroundtheworldandjustplantflags andsay‘We are seabed atabout4300m. The symbolic plantingoftheRussianflag madefromcorrosion-resistant Chukotka SeaandtheEastSiberianSea,advancingargument thattheunderwaterridgesof research shipAkademikFedorov slightly eccentricentry:theRussianexpeditionconsistingofnuclearicebreaker who characterizedtheRussianunderwaterenterprise asa“show”andremindedthat15 of thefirstnight”[2].Suchstatementsweremetwithharsh rebuttalsfrom explorer andtheleaderofexpedition,whostated that“wehaveexercisedthemaritimeright Russian ownershipofthe Arctic seabed, includingthehalf-jokeby Artur Chilingarov, veteran unfolding geopoliticalcompetitioninthe Arctic Ocean. security policies,touchinguponmattersofnationalidentity, andevaluatingtheprospectsof with thelegalissuesandscientific background,movingthentothecrucialaspectsofenergy and immediate falloutandthewiderimplicationsofRussianadvancetowards rhetoric, exemplified byPutin’s MunichspeechinFebruary2007[1]. This paperexaminesthe particularly whenplacedinthecontextofRussia’s increasinglyrecklessbehaviorandchesty an “audaciousforay”anda“flag-planting caper,” constitutesacauseforconcerninthe West, is nothingremarkable,however, thespectacularmannerinwhichitwasasserted,describedas Mendeleev andLomonosovconstitutecontinuationsofitscontinentalshelf.Initselfthisclaim seeks toexpandits230-mileexclusiveeconomiczone(EEZ)byabout460,000mi straight longitudinallinesof32 measures. InSoviettimes,everygeographicalmapshowedtheUSSR’ and triggeredmassivejubilationdomesticallyaswellinternationalcriticismevencounter titanium atthehighestlatitudepointhasreceivedadisproportionateamountofmediacoverage Mir was designatedasterritorialwaters. The newRussianclaimisonlyslightlylessambitiousasit towards thePole,sothatahugesectorcoveringapproximatelyonethirdof Russia’s fortheArctic Race andtheNew Geopolitics oftheNorth Pole -1 and There havebeenmorethanafewtriumphantstatements aboutthenewly-confi The annalsof Arctic explorationwereexpandedon August 2,2007,byanoteworthyif Mir Could ScienceProvide aSolid LegalFoundation fortheClaim? -2, werelaunchedandsomeninehourslatersafelyretrievedafterreachingthe o E fromtheKolaPeninsulaand180 reachedtheNorthPolewheretwodeep-watersubmersibles, Introduction 4 o E fromtheBeringStraight s bordersgoingalong Western officials, ed that“whether Arctic Ocean Arctic, starting 2 beyondthe Rossiya rmed th century and - Occasional Paper s The Definition World World nition is rm that some ags is a matter of ags is a matter of Pavel Baev Pavel c evidence that , Article 76 on Article 76 on , Articles 15, 73 and 83 that Articles 15, 73 and The Commission shall make ag on the moon [4]. ag on the moon [4]. 5 nuclear icebreaker conducted in-depth nuclear icebreaker conducted in-depth Rossiya that is in the center of the current dispute, and while this defi of the current dispute, and while that is in the center of “no-mans” underwater terrain were the continuation of the Siberian shelf. of “no-mans” underwater terrain 2 rst state to invoke this rule in late 2001 when it submitted to the UN Russia was the first state to invoke this rule in late recommendations to coastal States on matters related to the establishment of the outer limits recommendations to coastal States shelf established by a coastal State on the basis of The limits of the of their continental shelf. and binding. final these recommendations shall be Information on the limits of the continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles from the Information on the limits of the continental of the territorial sea is measured shall be submitted by baselines from which the breadth on the Limits of the Continental Shelf set up under the coastal State to the Commission geographical representation. Annex II on the basis of equitable Russia is indeed acting in perfect accord with the Law of the Sea Convention (1982), which it Law of the Sea Convention (1982), acting in perfect accord with the Russia is indeed Chilingarov’s expedition had in fact a modicum of scientific content, if that: the submersibles expedition had in fact a modicum of scientific Chilingarov’s request was put on hold in mid-2002 due to insufficient scientific evidence, and it could be scientific due to insufficient request was put on hold in mid-2002 recommendation on the eight produced a single affirmative pointed out that the CLCS has not Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) the request to confi Commission on the Limits of the concerned delimitation of maritime borders and EEZs [5]. It is, however of maritime borders and EEZs concerned delimitation ratified in February 1997, with the significant reservation that it would not accept the procedures that it would not accept reservation 1997, with the significant ratified in February disputes related to decisions regarding the leading to the compulsory 2014 Olympic bid. The CLCS, however, is in a quite different position than the International is in a quite different The CLCS, however, 2014 Olympic bid. its decision on the revised Olympic Committee as it does not need to make a choice and finalize in resolving the dispute. Moscow expects that its demonstrated commitment to conducting in resolving the dispute. Moscow expects that its demonstrated commitment research program would convince the concerned parties of the feasibility of its a large-scale to the success of Sochi’ claim, much the same way as direct presidential support was conducive Lomonosov and Gakkel ridges, and the few samples of sand and dirt that it collected could not Lomonosov and Gakkel ridges, and the few samples of sand and What the expedition did achieve was unprecedented constitute any geological evidence [8]. could constitute an important factor Arctic research, and that international attention to Russia’s reached the seabed in the middle of the Amundsen Basin that is squeezed between the reached the seabed in the middle of the Ocean Geology in May-June 2007 when the Ocean Geology in May-June 2007 seismic tests, which received research on the Lomonosov ridge, including drilling, acoustic and little if any media coverage [7]. submissions it received since its establishment [6]. Moscow was not discouraged by this setback submissions it received since its Arctic on the geological structures and mapping the at collecting data and redoubled its efforts in this respect was the expedition by the Institute of seabed. Of particular importance 460,000 mi of the Continental Shelf of the Continental established perfectly clear in §8: extraordinary vague, one point is would strengthen the Russian application and the latter clarifying that raising fl the Russian application and the would strengthen of the U.S. fl and pointing to the planting tradition in exploration assessments of the situation, with the former emphasizing the new scientifi situation, with the former emphasizing assessments of the The Jamestown Foundation as mereselectingifnotcookingofevidenceinsupportapoliticalgoal[9]. the Britishcrown,israthercompromisingforobjectivityofrealresearch,whichnowseen sponsored privateerChilingarov, whowascomparedwithFrancisDrakeclaimingCaliforniafor and updatedrequestthatRussiaplanstosubmitin2009.Infact,thefl directed going tenderfordeveloping thegiantShtokmangasfield intheBarentsSea inOctober2006and has cometotheforefrontofinternationaldebates whentheKremlinsuddenlycancelledlong- for developingoff-shore oilandgasfields,particularlyinharsh Arctic conditions. This problem Barents andKaraSeas[10]. reserves oftheUAE),whichisroughlyfivetimessmallerthanwhatusuallyestimatedfor the 10 billiontonsoffuelequivalent(upto48.8 barrelsofoil,orabouthalftheprovenoil encouraged theexpertsfromInstituteof World OceanGeologytogivethehighfigure of9- of theRussianclaim,isleastpromisingarea. The resultsoftheMay-June2007 expedition deep-water plateaubetweentheLomonosovandMendeleevridges,whichformsmainpart Laptev Seaandgenerallypromisingstructuresintheeasternpartofshelf;forthatmatter is concerned,areintheBarentsandKaraseas,withdecentpossibilitiesfordiscoveries uncertainty isthatthemostpromisinghydrocarbon“provinces,”asfarRussiansector imaginary figures wouldbeconsiderednewsworthy. Onenearcertaintybehindthisfundamental are inthecategoryofwildspeculation“experts”whoclearlyunderstandthatonlyhighest provide abasisforanyreliableestimates,somostoftheassessmentsthatcirculateinmedia drilling haseverbeenconducted.Seismicandacoustictestsgeologicmodelingcannot of seashelfoff thecoastsof Alaska, NorwayandRussia’s western Arctic regions,noexploratory is-all-about-hydrocarbons’ type. “conquest”—that askforinsertingahealthydoseofdoubtintoauthoritativestatementsthe‘it- as wellafewcertaintiesabouttheenergy dimensionofRussia’s Arctic quest—oreven domain, inwhichPutintakeskeenpersonalinterest. There are,nevertheless,manyuncertainties the exportofnaturalgas,havebecomenotonlyakeyprioritybutalsoanexclusivepresidential it fitsperfectlyintothepatternofRussia’s foreignpolicywhereenergy matters,andespecially heights thatarealreadyseenasthenorm,suchanemphasisisentirelyunderstandable.Besides, time ofpermanentanxietyintheworldenergy marketthatdrivestheoilpricestostratospheric does notmentionthedesiretotakecontroloverpotentiallyvastreservesofoilandgas.In Russia’s fortheArctic Race andtheNew Geopolitics oftheNorth Pole Another certaintyintheRussianenergy strategyisthelackofexperienceandtechnology The mainuncertaintyisdefinitely thescaleofreserves,sinceoutsidenarrowstrip There ishardlyacommentonRussia’s explorationofandclaimforthe Arctic seabedthat Gazprom toimplementthisstrategic taskonitsown[11]. The expertswho had predicted Is Energy Really theDriving Force? 6 amboyant styleofstate- , the Occasional Paper gy development Pavel Baev Pavel Arctic possessions. Arctic possessions. gy greed, despite the gy sources; what approved in 2006 an N latitude is that 30-50 o The underlying proposition cation of the 1990 USA-USSR What is really happening in the 7 -II, which were built from scratch by consortia of from scratch by consortia of -II, which were built project in the Barents Sea has experienced delays and Sea has experienced delays project in the Barents Sakhalin was taken on board as a minor partner (albeit with no access as a minor partner (albeit with was taken on board -I and Prirazlomnoe ’s recent hostile takeover of the latter would hardly improve its takeover of the latter would recent hostile ’s Gazprom Could the Cold War Make an Arctic Comeback? an Arctic Make War Could the Cold Sakhalin , the oil companies as well as the government agencies are in no rush to develop the , the oil companies as well as the A military-security angle has been prominent in much of the commentary on the flag- military-security angle has A Basically, Russia is not planning any major breakthroughs in developing or exploring the Russia is not planning any major breakthroughs in developing Basically, This latter case points to one more near certainty, which is rather difficult to explain: to explain: is rather difficult which to one more near certainty, This latter case points would not be able to advance this challenging off-shore project were proven right project to advance this challenging off-shore would not be able Gazprom to resources) [12]. In fact, the list of successful off-shore projects implemented during the last implemented during the last projects In fact, the list of successful off-shore to resources) [12]. planting expedition, with the speculation of a clash of interests easily importing the possibility planting expedition, with the speculation of a clash of interests easily has been about a “war The most common line of argument of confrontation and even war [18]. of ener for resources,” which connects nicely with the wide-spread attitude years from now hydrocarbons would still be in such high demand that production at enormous years from now hydrocarbons would What follows logically is that Russia is not particularly costs will be economically efficient. ener worried about climate change and has few thoughts about alternative Maritime Boundary Agreement, despite some phantasmagoric plans for building a tunnel under Agreement, despite some phantasmagoric Maritime Boundary rights for the seabed beyond the 80 for claiming exclusive economic for ener appears possible to suggest is that current plans and mid-term prospects the cannot justify the present-day rush in advancing the claim for expanding fact that such a war remains an entirely hypothetical proposition. Arctic hydrocarbon riches – and it is not facing any risk of falling behind competitors who might it is not facing any risk of falling behind competitors who might Arctic hydrocarbon riches – and the free waters in the near future. begin contemplating a project in the Bering Straight [17]. dispute with Norway that involves a sector in the Barents Sea potentially rich in hydrocarbons dispute with Norway that involves is not yet contemplating the ratifi [16], and the Russian parliament of the Continental Shelf of the Russian Federation until 2020,” but this document is still not of the Continental Shelf of the Russian particularly keen to resolve the maritime border officially approved [15]. Neither is Moscow ambitious investment program for the rest of the decade, but during 2007 this program has ambitious investment program for are greatly increased while investments in upstream projects, been revised so that acquisitions The Ministry of Natural Resources presented reduced [14]. including Shtokman, are significantly and Developing the Oil and Gas Potential “Strategy for Exploring in early 2006 a far-reaching Gazprom management, while its own management, while appears problematic [13]. current plan to get it on-line in 2008 setbacks, so the decade is limited to decade is limited trans-national majors; that French Total in July 2007, when vast hydrocarbon resources of the Arctic seas. For that matter, Gazprom Arctic seas. For that matter, vast hydrocarbon resources of the The Jamestown Foundation signify areturnof“blocthinking”sincetheflights wereconductedinthe“specific regionswhere former DefenseMinister, emphasizeditevenfurther, assertingthattheresumedpatrollingdidnot the implicitconnectionwastoostrongtomiss.Sergei Ivanov, FirstDeputyPrimeMinisterand Aviation justtendaysafterreceivingChilingarov’s reportcouldhavebeenacoincidence,but deterrence systembyRussia.Putin’s ordertoresumeregularcombatpatrollingbytheStrategic northern strategicenvironmentisunilateralanddemonstrativerestorationofsomeelementsthe generated the most acute risks. Moscowappears keen to expand this activity, as was demonstrated been navalactivitythatconstituted themaincontentofstrategicconfrontation intheNorthand end [26]. slow-moving Russian did. ItdoesnotconstituteaproblemforBritish inviting questionsabouttherationaleforsuchdemonstrations[24]. January 1985to April 1987),butcurrentlythismodewouldbeevenlesssustainablebesides was abletoperformcombatpatrollingforonlylimitedperiodsoftime(thelongestonefrom difficult tofind awayaroundthefactthateveninCold War era,theSovietStrategic Aviation clarification thatthebomberswouldnotbecarryingnuclearweapons[23].However, itisstill “combat patrollingofstrategiccharacter.” That Khrushchev-stylestatementrequiredasmall would continueonaregularbasisandreinforcedthemessagebydefi Olenya, Tiksi and Vorkuta) [22]. were performeddaily, includingfromtherarelyusedbasesinNorth(Anadyr, Monchegorsk, up fortheunprecedentedexercisesofStrategic Aviation inmid-August,when30-50flights spy scandalbetweenRussiaandtheUK[21].Inretrospect,thosefl waters towardstheNorthSeawereactuallyresumedinmid-July, addingaparticulartwisttothe military exercises[20].Foronething,theflights ofstrategicbombers Tu-95MS over Arctic Cooperation Organization who observedthefinal phaseoftheunprecedentedRussian-Chinese announced ratherpompouslyatthemeetingofheadsmemberstatesShanghai our economicinterestsarepresent,includingnavigation”[19]. excessive andunnecessaryasthosethatbrought the Levanevskyfl the Strategic Aviation, the Tu-160 thatexploded inmid-airSeptember2003mostcertainly order, aSu-24 crashedduringatrainingflight, andwhilethatfighter-bomber didnotbelongto training, maintenanceandlogisticsremainserious problems[25]. Tu-95MS and15 Tu-160), ofwhichabout halfcouldbedeemedmissioncapable,howeverpilot Russia’s fortheArctic Race andtheNew Geopolitics oftheNorth Pole While currentlyitistheseair“shows”thatattract themostattention,traditionallyithas The totalstrengthofthe37 It wasintheaftermathofthesesuccessfulexercisesthatPutinannouncedfl There ismuchcontradictionandconfusionaboutthepresidentialorderthatwas Bears over Arctic waters,buttherisksinvolved intheseface-offs appear as th Air Army oftheLong-Range Aviation is79bombers(64 8 Typhoons andNorwegianF-16stointerceptthe A fewdaysafterthepresident’s ight in August 1937toitstragic ights couldbeseenasawarm- ning thenewpatternas ights Occasional Paper

Yury Yury Kursk , in The arrival As Ivan Krastev Pavel Baev Pavel from under the ice in the from under the ice test on June 28 was, according test on June 28 9 Bulava Ekaterinburg -class) has been delayed by the setbacks in -class) has been (started in Severodvinsk in 1996) and even more by in 1996) and even more (started in Severodvinsk Borey SSBN. The latest SSBN. Europe’—an alternative to the European Union” [31]. There other Europe’—an alternative to the European Union” [31]. Bulava Yury Dolgoruky Yury The “Conquest of the North” as an Identity-building Project Project Identity-building as an North” The “Conquest of the The parallel with Stalin’s triumphalist propaganda campaign of “conquering the North” triumphalist The parallel with Stalin’s It may appear that ideology has not played a significant role in Putin’s efforts at efforts role in Putin’s played a significant It may appear that ideology has not Overall, the all-too-apparent weaknesses in Russia’s strategic posture make it senseless strategic in Russia’s Overall, the all-too-apparent weaknesses North Pole region on 9 September 2006 [27]. There is, however, a severe limitation to this a severe limitation There is, however, on 9 September 2006 [27]. North Pole region the double deteriorated, as was seen by of SSBNs has shrunk and is badly ambition: the fleet exercises in February 2004 [28]. SLBMs during the presidential failure to launch to some sources, only partly successful, but Admiral Vladimir Masorin, Commander-in-Chief of Masorin, Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Admiral only partly successful, but to some sources, begin in production of these missiles would asserted that the confidently nevertheless the Navy, length would be conducted from the newly-launched 2008 and the test on maximum flight perfectly the value of a positive mobilization in combination with a campaign of terror [33]. perfectly the value of a positive mobilization in combination with is remarkably popular among the younger generation, perhaps had little appreciation for the is remarkably popular among the younger generation, perhaps had of nowadays, but he understood mysterious nature of the north that so fascinates post-modernists launched in 1936-1939 on the backdrop of severe internal repressions is too obvious to miss launched in 1936-1939 on the backdrop of severe internal repressions psyche and The Generalissimo, who still casts a long shadow over Russian collective [32]. is no place here to examine the full extent of these ideological ambitions, but they do have a is no place here to examine the full extent of these ideological ambitions, policy. Arctic direct relevance for the new ideological ambition to be ‘the the fast-unfolding period of power transition, a unifying vision could serve as an important the fast-unfolding period of power ruling elite. means of securing continuity and preserving the dominance of the building a massive bureaucratic pyramid described as the “executive vertical”; however building a massive bureaucratic critics, the concept of “Contrary to the assertions of Putin’s has recently insightfully argued, break with European tradition. It embodies Russia’s sovereign democracy does not mark Russia’s The demonstrative application of such unreliable and self-damaging instruments appears to go The demonstrative application of into his ambition but it does fit proclaimed adherence to the policy of pragmatism, against Putin’s a new Russian state. to forge to consider re-launching a military brinkmanship in the North, in which Moscow would hardly to consider re-launching a military (which are still called “partners” in Putin-speak) be able to impress its potential competitors disasters comparable to the K-141 but would definitely expose itself to risks of technical [29]. The prospect of launching a faulty strategic missile from an untested nuclear The prospect of launching a faulty strategic Dolgoruky [29]. of Russian roulette [30]. submarine resembles indeed a game constructing the lead SSBN constructing the the new the failures in testing of the new generation of submarines (the of the new generation by the missile launch by the strategic submarine K-84 by the strategic submarine by the missile launch catastrophe in August 2000, not to mention plenty of alarmist commentary in the Western media. Western commentary in the August 2000, not to mention plenty of alarmist catastrophe in The Jamestown Foundation to buildamoresolidideologicalfoundationhasbecomerecognizedsincethechainofdisasters Soviet aircraftindustryonthetrackthatwasproventobeaperfecttechnologicaldead-end. times allmentionsofStalinwerecarefullyerased),hesoughttodirectthedevelopment Besides makingtheexplorersintonationalheroesidolizedinpopularsongs(fromwhichlater migration wheretheNorth issteadilylosingpopulation. assessments ofthepower ofthestatebutitwouldhardlymakeanydif off eventmightleaveanimprintontheself-perceptionofRussiansandregister ontheir and aredependentuponcost-ineffective suppliesorganized bythefederalcenter[37]. The one- depressed bymultipleeconomicproblems(with the exceptionofoilandgas-producingenclaves) celebration wouldtranslateintosustainedsupport fordevelopingtheNorthernregionsthatare failure atthestartoftour). Mir Norwegian P-3 about aU.S.“spyplane”thatwasfollowingtheexpedition(infact,planeinquestion Mir-2) butalsotoemphasizetheworriesofRussia’s frustratedcompetitors. To thatend,thenews downplay theroleofforeignsponsors(aSwedishandan Australian “tourist”wereonboardof North Poleexpeditionwithitsminimalscientific content,itwasdeemednecessarynotonlyto Nikolai Patrushev, directoroftheFSB[35].Inordertoattractpublicandpoliticalattention a longtime.Hispreviousescapadewashelicopterflight totheSouthPoleincompanyof Chilingarov, fedupwithhisroleasaone-issueoddityintheStateDuma,hadtriedtosellfor nation-wide celebration[34]. the “victory”incontestforhosting2014 Winter Olympicshasbeenmadeintoanecstatic gain aboostfromthechairmanshiproleinG82006wasnotparticularlysuccessful,but in PolandandtheCzechRepublicresonatedwithraisinganti-Americanism. strong objectionsagainsttheplanneddeploymentofelementsaUSstrategicdefensesystem downtown Tallinn inSpring2007)stirred patrioticfeelingsofaratherdubiousnature,andthe Russian officersin Tbilisi inautumn2006andtheremovalofBronzeSoldiermonumentfrom propaganda attackson“treacherous”neighborsGeorgia andEstonia(focusedonthearrestoffour Quite afewdomesticmobilizationcampaignswerestagedwithvariousdegreeofsuccess:the in the to defianceofgraverisk,prideinRussiantechnological superiority(omittingthefactsthat was secured,everypossiblespinputonthetale,fromhistoricparallelstoener about therealpurposeofdeploymentaU.S.“military”icebreaker[36]. Beslan tragedyandwhentheOrangeRevolutiondefeatedallofMoscow’ Russia’s fortheArctic Race andtheNew Geopolitics oftheNorth Pole submersibleswereproducedinFinlandfortheUSSR andthat annus horribilisof2004,when Akhmad Kadyrov’s assassinationwasfollowedbythe In Putin’s Kremlin,manipulativePRisvaluedaboveanyotherpoliticalskillbuttheneed The responseinsocietywasoverwhelminglypositive butitisdiffi Putin’s spin-mastershavestumbleduponratherthaninventedthe Arctic theme, which Orion thatmadeonevisualcontactwiththeships)werespicedspeculations 10 Akademik Fedorov ference inthepatternof s plansforUkraine. cult toexpectthatthis When theattention The attemptto hadengine gy greed, Occasional Paper -power in decline Pavel Baev Pavel , is presumed to , that disagreements between , but that the four Arctic , but that the four Arctic, but Moscow assumes 11 Moscow Measures the Players and the Stakes in Arctic Geopolitics in Arctic and the Stakes the Players Measures Moscow The main source of risk in this rather simplistic picture is not that the US leadership The main source of risk in this rather simplistic picture is not that Among the potential competitors, Norway is perceived as a familiar and predictable Among the potential competitors, Celebrating the Arctic “triumph,” the Russians are fully aware that it makes a bitter pill are fully aware that it makes a Arctic “triumph,” the Russians Celebrating the increase the probability of such coalition-building, so Moscow has to take into account the increase the probability of such coalition-building, so Moscow has collective replies to its some forceful possibility that the concerned neighbors might find is seriously weakened challenges [42]. It can only hope that the U.S. ability to deliver leadership by the unfolding disaster in Iraq, and expect, perhaps optimistically would decide that Moscow had allowed itself one liberty too many it would constitute a separate dimension in the complex relationship where the elements of it would constitute a separate dimension as the hyper confrontation and cooperation coexist but tensions tend to escalate that there is not much direct conflict between its claims and Canadian interests [41]. The main between its claims and Canadian interests [41]. that there is not much direct conflict goes however towards the US, and the Kremlin expects that Arctic intrigue line of Russia’s seeks to check the rise of an independent power center. join forces could member-states, states—plus possibly the UK—who all happen to be NATO could actually Aviation The experiments with combat patrolling by Strategic against Russia. Arctic states, who would advance overlapping and contradictory claims, would undermine the not taken seriously and its attempts to establish that the Lomonosov ridge goes all the way to not taken seriously and its attempts oddities [40]. Canada is watched carefully, of scientific Greenland are relegated to the category naval capabilities in the particularly with its plans for expanding neighbor, which is quite content with the deadlocked status of the maritime dispute and is more which is quite content with the deadlocked neighbor, (Svalbard) archipelago with its peculiar status the Spitsbergen concerned about its own rights on claims. Denmark is of 1920) than with challenging Russia’s Treaty (defined by the Spitsbergen constitute an additional source of strength. constitute an additional source of “frontier” where Russia should use its competitive advantages and assert its claims since the “frontier” where Russia should use even if not of immediate character readiness to advance its own interests, by incessant propaganda. In the political elite, the predatory instincts of the nouveau riche mix predatory instincts of the nouveau In the political elite, the by incessant propaganda. services, of the cadre from special conformism and cynical manipulativeness with bureaucratic an easily applicable set of for which geopolitics provide to form a very particular worldview, and elbow aside hesitant competitors determines The imperative to move fast guidelines [39]. as the status quo is often seen political behavior in Russia’s the preference for proactive moves Arctic is perceived as a geopolitical The power. as too restrictive for its newly consolidated in international relations [38]. Perceptions of an inherently hostile external environment, inherently hostile external environment, [38]. Perceptions of an in international relations with deep a “fortress Russia” but blended reaching the extreme vision of perhaps not quite reinforced are widely spread and and suspicions towards US hegemonism, mistrust in NATO to swallow for their Northern neighbors and so could result in complications and even tensions result in complications and Northern neighbors and so could to swallow for their The Jamestown Foundation Russia’s fortheArctic Race andtheNew Geopolitics oftheNorth Pole geopolitical movebuttheKremlinwasquicktofollowitupwithpoliticalandsecuritysteps these cleavages[43]. Western passageattherecentUS-Canadasummitwastakenasaconfirmation ofthedepth their Atlantic unity. Inthisrespect,thefailuretoreachanagreementonstatusofNorth- preserving thecommonendowment. would benotaboutsharingprofits fromdeveloping abundantresourcesbutaboutjoiningefforts in could offer afarbettersolution,particularlysincethekeyproblemsinnear andmid-term Caspian experienceitisabouttheendlessquarrels fuelledbyener five nationalsectorsmightappeartobeanaturalcooperative solutionbutifthereisalessoninthe years agobyGeorge KennanintheLong Telegram. A multilateraldealondividingthe Arctic into far lesspromisingoutcomethanacombinationof containmentandcooperationasprescribed70 ridge andignoringpossibleflyovers by useful todefyRussia’s unilateralismbysendingexpeditionstotheNorthPoleandLomonosov by thedemonstrativeflag-planting. The four Arctic states,supportedbyotherallies,mightfind it on expandingitsEEZwouldbeapprovedbytheCLCS,whichhardlywaspositivelyimpressed helpful stepinprotectingthefragile Arctic eco-system[46]. stretches fromtheFranz-JosefLandtonorthernpartofNovayaZemlyacouldbeasmallbut the planet.Inthisrespect,planfororganizing avastnaturalpreserve“Russian Arctic” that if thewintericebecamemuchthinner, butthatwouldcausemultipledevastatingdisastersfor resources ontheshelfbeyondGulfStream-warmedBarentsSeawouldbecomepossibleonly an illustrationoftheproblemglobalwarming[45].Infact,developmenthydrocarbon demonstrated onceagaintheunprecedenteddepletionof Arctic icecapandthusprovided which wouldgreatlystrengthenthisinternationalregime[44].Foranother For onething,itcouldprompttheU.S.CongresstoratifyUNLawofSeaConvention, in factsomeoftheconsequencesthis“attention-grab”couldbepositivefromanyperspective. freedom ofmaneuveringandleftitselflittleroomforcompromises. identity-building tasksintothegeopoliticalrivalry, Moscowhasseriouslyconstraineditsown aimed atovertakinganddividingitsdumbfoundedcompetitors.Itisalsoclearthatbyimporting Overall, itisclearthatChilingarov’s expeditionwasanimprompturatherthanacalculated Whatever scientific evidenceisamassed,Russiahasaslimchanceatbestthatitsclaim The reactioninthe West toRussia’s Arctic adventurehasbeenpredominantlynegativebut Bears Conclusions 12 and Blackjacks . Confrontation,however, offers a gy greed. The Antarctic model , theexpeditionhas Occasional Paper , , 7 Lenta.ru on Board ). m Total http://www. Grani.ru http://www.ifri. Pavel Baev Pavel , 16 October 2006. http://newtimes.ru/ Be Trusted Trusted Be Gazprom , 6 March 2006; the draft Expert , no. 29, 16-22 June 2007 http://www.jamestown.org/ Ogonyok , 7 August 2007 , 7 Kommersant ). l 13 , 5 August 2007. , 5 ). / http://www.mnr.gov.ru/files/part/0477_ , 16 July 2007 ( , 13 August 2007. Kommersant-Vlast, 13 can be found in “Can , 27 August 2002. The CLCS documents are August 2002. , 27 , 19 March 2007. , 4 August 2007. , 4 Notes Gazprom Novaya gazeta Expert Eurasia Daily Monitor ). ). 1 ). 1 , 9 August 2007; Scott Borgerson, “An Ice Cold Scott Borgerson, August 2007; The Economist, 9 / ). Eurasia Daily Monitor http://www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs_new/clcs_home.ht m , 31 July 2007; “Golden Seabed,” , 31 July 2007; “Golden Seabed,” Rossiiskaya gazeta Nezavisimaya gazeta , 4 August 2007. , 4 Financial Times ); my abridged analysis is in Pavel Baev, “Kremlin Brings French ); my abridged analysis is in Pavel Baev, http://lenta.ru/articles/2007/08/03/arctic 1 http://grani.ru/Politics/World/m.125719.htm ). c http://www.ogoniok.com/5005/18 6. On the Russian request, see Vladimir Sanko, “The Shelf is Ours But It is Necessary to Vladimir Sanko, 6. On the Russian request, see 3 August 2007 ( 3 5. The text of the Federal Law on Ratification of the Convention can be found at ( The text of the Federal Law on Ratification 5. 16. Visiting Russia in June 2007, Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg secured an Russia in June 2007, Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg Visiting 16. fjord but achieved no progress on the larger Varanger agreement on delimiting the border in the 4. One good source on these exchanges is Aleksandr Amzin, “By the Right of Quirites,” Amzin, “By the Right Aleksandr on these exchanges is 4. One good source 12. An interesting case of French debates on 12. to Ensure Russian Energy Supply?” Conference-debate at IFRI, 26 April 2007 ( April at IFRI, 26 Supply?” Conference-debate to Ensure Russian Energy org/frontDispatcher/ifri/recherche/russie_et_monde_post_sovi_tique_1040123098618/_nergie_ 117075713419 Shtokman Project,” ’s Gazprom , 8 August 2007; my early reflections are in Pavel Baev, “Russian Flag Baev, are in Pavel my early reflections August 2007; , 8 Times New York War,” Pole,” Claim at North Stakes Energy 7. The expedition was led by Viktor Poselov, Deputy Director of the Institute, which is affiliated Director of the Institute, which is affiliated Deputy Poselov, Viktor The expedition was led by 7. Fuel Race to the North “Gas and Glory see Max Delaney, with the Natural Resources Ministry; 11. It was no secret for Russian commentators that political intrigue prevailed over economic It was no secret for Russian commentators that political 11. “The Shtokman Puzzle” Prohorov, rationale in that directive; see Pavel srateg.do ’s ambivalent investment plans and aggravating inefficiency, see Vladimir Milov, Vladimir Milov, see and aggravating inefficiency, ambivalent investment plans ’s 14. On Gazprom August 2007 ( , 13 The New Times Prosperity,” ’s “The Downside of Gazprom magazine/issue_25/article_2.ht to Stake on the Shelf,” Alena Kornysheva, “Russia 15. See edm/article.php?article_id=237229 9. See “Pole positioning,” “Hit Below the Pole,” Aleksandr Kukolevsky, 10. See “Sakhalin Gas Knot,” Aliev, Ali 13. See ( St. Petersburg Times Pole,” St. Petersburg Convince the Neighbors,” available on its useful website ( kadis.ru/texts/index.phtml?id=1952 August 2007 ( Darya of these responses; see for instance provided uncensored coverage 3. Russian media “Lacking spine,” Yuryeva, 1. See “Ships, Subs and Missiles,” 1. See “Ships, Subs 8. See Ekaterina Glikman, “Tourist Trip,” Trip,” 8. See Ekaterina Glikman, “Tourist of the Strategy is available at the Ministry’s website at ( of the Strategy is available at the Ministry’s 2. See “Chilingarov: We Have Exercised the Maritime Right of the First Night,” the Maritime Right of the Have Exercised We 2. See “Chilingarov: The Jamestown Foundation 25. SeePavelFelgengauer, “PresidentShakesthe Air,” August 2007;“RussiaisFacingaSecondCold War –OntheNorthPole,” 18. Seeforinstance,NadezhdaSorokina,“TheBattlethe Arctic,” 2007. 2007 ( border issue;see“RussiaandNorway Agreed onDividingthe Varanger Fjord,” 2007. 30. SeePavelFelgengauer, “NuclearRoulette for Admiral Masorin,” 2007. November 2004( Pavel Baev, “Putin’s ‘Wonder-missiles’: Bluff, Threat orPep-talk?” Their SmartLoad,” 28. See Vadim Solovyev, Vladimir Ivanov, Viktor Myasnikov, “TheMissilesMatterLessthan September 2006. 27. See Viktor Myasnikov, “Setbacksand Victories,” August 2007;“SheathetheSabres,” Richard Norton-Taylor, “Typhoons ScrambletoInterceptRussian Aircraft,” North intheSovietUnion,1932-1939 26. Onthe1937drama,seeJohnMcCannon, Dedovshchina strategic forceswereasaffected by gruesome caseofbrutalhazinginthegarrisonPlesetskspacelaunchsiteremindedthat ( geNum= Row withLondon,” articles/2007/07/19/tu95 Muhin, “BombersFlewintoBigPolitics,” 20. Onecompetentcommentis Viktor Myasnikov, Viktor Litovkin,IvanGorshkov, Vladimir August 2007. obozrenie ITAR-TASS, 21 August 2007( Long-Range Aviation, see“RussianLong-rangePlanesHaveNoNuke Weapons onBoard,” 23. That clarification wasprovidedbyGeneral Anatoly Zhikharev, DeputyCommanderofthe 2007; OksanaBoiko,“War forthe Arctic,” 24. See Aleksandr Golts,“A NewCold War oraFarce?” russianforces.org 17. See“RussiatoBuildthe World’s Longest Tunnel,” 22. InformeddiscussionoftheseexercisescouldbefoundonPavelPodvig’ 21. SeeIlyaKramnik,“ReturnoftheFlyingBear,” 29. See Vladimir Gundarov, Viktor Myasnikov, “TheBulava Affair,” 19. See“IvanovSaysStrategicBomberPatrolsNoReturntotheCold Russia’s fortheArctic Race andtheNew Geopolitics oftheNorth Pole http://www.ej.ru/?a=note&id=734 http://www.rosbalt.ru/2007/06/08/298720.htm 0 , 20July2007;DmitriLitovkin,“Bulava Will StrikeontheHawaii,” ). inPlesetsk,” / http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=236889 ). Nezavisimoe voennoeobozrenie Eurasia DailyMonitor / ); mybriefanalysisisinPavelBaev, “MoscowEscalatesDiplomatic Grani.ru, 24 August 2007( http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=11804962&Pa 0 dedovshchina; ). Financial Times, 23 August 2007. . Oxford:OUP, 1998.Onthepresent-dayactivities,see Nezavisimaya gazeta Vzglyad, 9 August 2007. , 24July2007 14 Red Arctic: PolarExplorationandtheMythof see “SerdyukovPromisedtoSortOut Lenta.ru , 20February2004;myreflections arein l ). Nezavisimoe voennoeobozrenie International HeraldTribune, 18 April, http://grani.ru/War/Draft/m.126458.htm Novaya gazeta Ezhednevny zhurnal , 19July2007( , 20 August 2007. Eurasia DailyMonitor Novaya gazeta Nezavisimoe voennoe Rossiiskaya gazeta , 19 August 2007. A War,” RIA- 2 Izvestiya ). s blog( http://lenta.ru/ The Guardian , 20 August 2007 Izvestia, 6 August Rosbalt Novosti http:// , 30July , 9 August , 15 , 8June , 2 , 23 , 22 , 22 l ). Occasional Paper , 24 http:// ). l , 5 August , 5 Gazeta.ru http://www. ). Problems of The Siberian Pavel Baev Pavel 2 , July-August , 14 June 2000 Arctic Ocean in s Arctic possessions; s , 15 January 2007; , 15 January 2007 Novaya gazeta http://www.ej.ru/ Ctheory.net http://jamestown.org/edm/article. Gazeta.ru 15 Rossiiskaya gazeta 6 July 2007 ( Russia in Global Affairs Russia in Global , 24 August 2007 ( August Gazeta.ru, 24 ). l , 9 July 2007 ( ); see also Andrei Kolesnikov, “The Polar War is War “The Polar Kolesnikov, Andrei ); see also l ). 8 http://grani.ru/opinion/kolesnikov/m.125502.htm Ezhednevny zhurnal, Has Returned Home,” Eurasia Daily Monitor ) . / Ruslan ). 7 , 28 July 2007; “US Send a Heavy Military Icebreaker to the Arctic,” Arctic,” Military Icebreaker to the , 28 July 2007; “US Send a Heavy August 2007. , 2 ); my reflections are in Pavel Baev, “Russia Wins Olympic Bid, Now Must Wins “Russia ); my reflections are in Pavel Baev, 9 , 3 August 2007 ( Grani.ru, 3 http://bd.fom.ru/report/map/projects/dominant/dom0734/domt0734_3/d07342 http://www.gazeta.ru/column/butrin/1258795.shtm http://www.ctheory.net/articles.aspx?id=12 the Russian North are thoroughly examined in Fiona Hill & Clifford G. Gaddy, G. Gaddy, the Russian North are thoroughly examined in Fiona Hill & Clifford 35. See Andrei Sharov, “ Andrei Sharov, 35. See 2007. A brilliant post-modernist interpretation of the concept of the North is in Sergei Medvedev, Medvedev, interpretation of the concept of the North is in Sergei brilliant post-modernist A 2007. inappropriate to save money on geopolitical undertakings but nobody expects returns tomorrow inappropriate to save money on geopolitical undertakings but nobody is the beauty of any global project, from the Great Silk Road to the and that or the day after, Diameter,” “Geopolitics of Large Dubnov, Vadim Arctic Lomonosov ridge”; see with other states, while some 30% were undecided. noted: “It would be 39. Explaining this obsession with geopolitics, one astute observer ( DC: Brookings, 2003); this book has generated plenty of indignant responses Curse (Washington East in the XXI Century” ( April 2007 roundtable “Russia’s in Russia, see for instance the Rossiiskaya gazeta Rossiiskaya gazeta Arctic were in favor of According to a FOM opinion poll, more than 70% of respondents 37. Russia’ expeditions and more than 65% supported the claim for expanding August 2007 FOM, 23 Attitude,” and Awareness Arctic Expedition: see Marina Ivanova, “The Dmitri Butrin, “Notes of Budget and Geographic Prostitution,” Dmitri Butrin, “Notes of Budget ( Plane is Carefully Observing the Russian Expedition,” 36. See Nadezhda Sorokina, “American php?article_id=237227 ?a=note&id=722 ‘The_Blank_Space: Glenn Gould, Russia, Finland and the North’, ‘The_Blank_Space: Glenn Gould, ( gazeta.ru/column/novoprudsky/2083286.shtm Raging On,” Commemoration of the 70 Years of the Chelyuskin Odyssey is Highly Characteristic.” See Semen See Characteristic.” Highly is Odyssey Chelyuskin the of Years 70 the of Commemoration with No Right on Letters,” Years “70 Novoprudsky, 31. See Ivan Krastev, “Russia as ‘the Other Europe,’” as ‘the Other “Russia 31. See Ivan Krastev, on p. 42. 2007, pp. 33-45, Authorities on the of Political Reaction from the Absence put it, “The As one commentator 32. Ended in 1937) (That Neither Started nor of the Peak of Stalinist Repressions Anniversary 70th of Speaker Vice Artur Chilingarov, of Arctic Expedition of the Celebrated on the Background Flag on the Bottom of the with the Planting of the Russian the State Duma, Realize Ambitious Plans,” Realize 38. The same opinion poll showed that some 40% of respondents expected problems in relations The same opinion poll showed that some 40% of respondents expected 38. www.beregrus.ru/krugstol 34. For a sharp comment, see Stanislav Belkovsky, “The Victory of Vladimir Vladimirovich Vladimir of Victory “The Belkovsky, 34. For a sharp comment, see Stanislav Are Cash!’, You Putin: Oh, Sport 33. On the legacy of Stalin’s terror, see Grigory Yavlinsky, “Article 37: Why Russians Forget Why Russians Forget “Article 37: Yavlinsky, see Grigory terror, 33. On the legacy of Stalin’s with a Stalin Face,’” About ‘Capitalism Talk About Repressions and The Jamestown Foundation the Arctic,” 42. See Aleksandra Homenok& Vladislav Vorobyev, “The MilitaryCompetewithScientistsin August 2007. 46. SeeKonstantin Volkov & Aleksei Nikolsky, Arctic,” 45. See Andrew C.Revkin,“AnalystsSee‘SimplyIncredible’ ShrinkingofFloatingIceinthe 44. See“A Treaty Whose Time HasCome,” August 2007. 43. SeeSergei Strokan,“North American Summit Was Cooledbythe Arctic,” Nezavisimaya gazeta 41. SeeNadezhdaSorokina,“CanadianPMInspectsthe Arctic,” Izvestia, 13 August 2007. Arctic,” August 2007( “America, Denmark,CanadaandEven Australia JoinedtheDisputeon Arctic Seabed,” 40. SeeSergei Lebedev, “InSearchofthePole:DenmarkSeekstoEstablishitsRightson Russia’s fortheArctic Race andtheNew Geopolitics oftheNorth Pole New York Times, 10 August 2007. Rossiiskaya gazeta Rossiiskaya gazeta http://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2007/08/24_a_2086215.shtm , 10 August 2007. , 13 August 2007;Igor Yavliansky, Andrei Reut,Georgi Iliychev, , 24 August 2007;Sergei Kulikov, “The Arctic Trap forMoscow,” New York Times, 25 August 2007. 16 “ Zapolyarye –RussianPreserve,” Rossiiskaya gazeta l ). Kommersant Vedomosti , 9 August. , 23 , 14 Occasional Paper Pavel Baev Pavel 17 About the Author About Dr. Pavel K. Baev is a Research Professor at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo Pavel K. Baev is a Research Professor at Dr. (PRIO); he is also affiliated with the Centre for the Study of Civil War at PRIO. After graduating His research interests include the transformation area. Caspian of greater the the and Russian Caucasus the the military, in energy conflicts post-Soviet dimension the and of relations, Russian-European from the Moscow State University (MA in Political Geography, 1979) he worked in a research institute research a in worked he 1979) Geography, Political in (MA University State Moscow the from in the USSR Defence Ministry and then in the Institute of Europe, Moscow before joining PRIO in Dialogue. Security journal quarterly PRIO’s of editor the was he 1995-2001 Between 1992. October