Assessment of Potential Reduction in Likelihood of Species Extinctions for Bukit Tigapuluh Sustainable Landscape and Livelihoods Project

Assessment of potential reduction in likelihood of species extinctions for Bukit Tigapuluh Sustainable Landscape and Livelihoods Project FINAL REPORT 10 October 2018 Frank Hawkins, Craig Beatty, Marcelo Tognelli IUCN-US Washington DC Species Threat Abatement and Restoration Metric Assessment of potential reduction in likelihood of species extinctions for Bukit Tigapuluh Sustainable Landscape and Livelihoods Project FINAL REPORT 10 October 2018 Aim: to use the existing approach and methodology for STAR to calculate an initial ex-ante value for the project area of BTSLLP, and to make management recommendations based on the result of that analysis. Tasks and results: Identify likely threatened taxa present in the general project area based on global species distribution maps and existing lists This analysis utilizes the methods of the Species Threat Abatement and Restoration Metric (STAR) to deliver quantified estimates of the contribution that investment could make to the reductions in extinction pressures for taxa listed as ‘Threatened’ in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. This analysis was predicated on the spatial extent (including a 5km buffer) of a landscape concession in proximity to Bukit Tigapuluh National Park in eastern Sumatra, Indonesia. The following 25 mammal and bird species, classified as ‘Near-threatened (NT)’, ‘Vulnerable (VU)’, ‘Endangered (EN)’, and ‘Critically Endangered (CR)’, whose ranges overlap with the spatial extent of the concession area, were included in this analysis. Bonaparte’s Nightjar Sumatran Elephant Elephas Greater Slow Loris Nycticebus Caprimulgus concretus VU maximus ssp. sumatranus CR coucang VU Greater Green Leafbird Sun Bear Helarctos malayanus Whiskered Flying Squirrel Chloropsis sonnerati VU VU Petinomys genibarbis VU Large-billed Blue-flycatcher Orbiculus Leaf-nosed Bat Temminck’s Flying Squirrel Cyornis caerulatus VU Hipposideros orbiculus VU Petinomys setosus VU Black Partridge Melanoperdix Agile Gibbon Hylobates agilis Sumatran Surili Presbytis niger VU EN melalophos EN Wallace’s Hawk-eagle Nisaetus Smooth-coated Otter Lutrogale Flat-headed Cat Prionailurus nanus VU perspicillata VU planiceps EN Helmeted Hornbill Rhinoplax Manis javanica CR Bearded Pig Sus barbatus vigil CR VU Rajah Sundaic Maxomys Large Green-pigeon Treron Maxomys rajah VU Siamang Symphalangus capellei VU syndactylus EN Whitehead’s Sundaic Maxomys Brooks’s Dyak Fruit-bat Maxomys whiteheadi VU Malay Tapir Tapirus indicus Dyacopterus brooksi VU EN Marbled cat Neofelis diardi VU Fig 1. Map of Sumatra showing location of concession Species data on reptiles and amphibians from the IUCN Red List of Species do not indicate the presence of any threatened species in these taxa in the project area. We have not identified Sumatran Orang-utan Pongo abelii on this list as the species is the subject of an introduction program. Identify the threats that apply to these species Threats that are listed in the IUCN Red List of Species that most commonly affect the species listed above include loss of habitat due to industrial and subsistence farming, hunting, and the construction of large dams. A considerable amount of effort has been devoted to obtaining additional information on these threats. See appendix 4 for more details on data sets collected. In the context of this project, it is clear that the most important potential threats that apply to the threatened species present in the project area are hunting and loss of habitat. Our management recommendations are based on this assessment. Verify the presence and distribution of species in project area in collaboration with project staff and advisors/ contractors It has been difficult to establish the presence of threatened species in the project area beyond the major focal species for which surveys have been conducted, including tigers and Sumatran elephants. Camera trap data have been requested from the Frankfurt Zoological Society, but permission to use these data was refused. In addition there is no data on the distribution in the project area for many of the more threatened smaller mammals and birds. While recent analyses suggest that there are no threatened reptiles and amphibians in the project area, it is very likely that targeted surveys would reveal species of conservation concern. Evaluate existing data on geographical disposition of threats, using a buffer 5 Km around the project area Fig. 2 Map of the Bukit Tigapuluh Concession Area showing 5 km buffer, Bukit Tigapuluh National Park, and deforestation in time periods 2001-2005, 2006-2010, and 2011-2016. Figure 2 shows the distribution of forest loss across the project area in three different time periods. We included a 5 km buffer around the project area in this analysis for two reasons: firstly, if management action reduced threats in the project area (for instance forest clearance) it might just displace the threat to an area adjacent, and secondly, this buffer covers the likely area that people living within the project area could make use of (for instance for hunting) on a daily basis. The threat map shows that clearance of primary forest in areas now covered by plantations occurred in the project area including in areas adjacent to the National Park very recently (2011-2016). Whether this forest clearance was specifically for the plantation of rubber, or for subsistence agriculture is not known. However this threat to biodiversity is clearly something that has had very significant impacts on the conservation value of habitats in the region in the very recent past, and will obviously need to be monitored and controlled very carefully if further biodiversity loss is not to happen. In particular It is clear that the potential for loss of habitat important for biodiversity is high in the 5 km buffer zone around the project area (see Figure 2). It was very difficult to gather data on the spatial distribution of threats other than for forest cover change across the project area. For threats related to hunting and non-sustainable use, we considered developing a proxy map that assumes hunting pressure is correlated to the presence of human habitation and roads. However the data layers we obtained for this purpose are mostly inaccurate and outdated. For the purposes of management recommendations, we have therefore made the assumption that forest cover change and intensity of hunting are closely correlated, and that the forest cover change layer in Figure 2 represents a threat intensity map for both deforestation and hunting. These data have been integrated into a project GIS system maintained by Marcelo Tognelli of the Joint IUCN/CI Biodiversity Assessment Unit based in Washington DC. In collaboration with the project team, acquire project GIS polygons and land- use/conservation proposals for each We did not have access to detailed land-use or conservation proposals for polygons within the project area, except that Blok 1 and Blok 2 are prioritised for conservation and restoration activities. Map threats against land-use and conservation proposals for each project polygon In the absence of detailed management proposals for each of the landuse polygons in the project area, we calculated the ex-ante STAR value by taxonomic group, species and threat, which can then be used to orient management for conservation within the overall project area. We used the STAR approach and methodology (Appendix 3) to assess the relative change in species extinction risk that could be generated by reducing the threats to the species present in the project area. To do this, forest cover data from Global Forest Watch were used to calculate the Area of Habitat (AOH) for the threatened species listed above. AOH is the habitat available to a species within its range, as defined in the Red List of Species. The proportion of the total Area of habitat of each species present in the project area is an approximation of the proportion of the total species’ population found in the project area, and is important for the calculation of STAR. We then took the Scope and Severity Scores for each pressure (also from the Red List of Species) as it applied to each species to calculate the potential STAR yield for each pressure. The methodology to calculate STAR is shown in Appendix 3. The tables showing the raw STAR scores for first and second order threats, broken down by mammals and birds, are shown in Appendix 1 and 2. These results are shown graphically in Figure 3 and 4 below. Bukit Tigapuluh Concession; threatened species contribution to STAR scores Figure 3 Relative contribution of conservation of individual species to potential reduction in species extinction risk. Figure 3 shows the relative change in global species extinction risk that could be delivered by focusing on individual species. The amount of species extinction risk reduction possible is equivalent to the proportion of the species’ habitat that is present in the project area, weighted by the threatened status of the species (see methodology, appendix 3). Hence highly threatened species with small global habitat area, of which the project area is a significant fraction (for instance Hipposideros orbiculus), are those that will generate the greatest STAR value. A value of 5 would be equivalent to removing all the threats from the entire range of a Critically Endangered species, making it Least Concern. A STAR value of 1 would approximate to reducing the threat level of a particular species from (for example) Critically Endangered to Endangered, or Endangered to Vulnerable, by reducing the threats that cause the species to have that threat rating. The top 7 species in this list are all mammals, reflecting the higher vulnerability of mammals to hunting (larger species; Sumatran Elephant, Sumatran Surili, Agile Gibbon, Malay Tapir, Siamang) and their generally smaller ranges (smaller species; Orbiculus Leaf-nosed Bat, Brooks’s Dyak Fruit Bat). Other smaller mammals and most birds are more vulnerable to habitat loss. Bukit Tigapuluh Concession: Species threats contribution to STAR Scores Figure 4. Relative contribution of threats to potential reduction of species extinction risk.

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