Research Horizons

Pioneering research from the University of Cambridge

Issue 31

Spotlight Digital society

Feature Singing sand dunes

Feature Bronze Age exposé www.cam.ac.uk/research Issue 31, October 2016 2 Contents

Contents

News Things

4 – 5 Research news 16 – 17 Rescuing Sebastiano’s Adoration of the Shepherds

Features Spotlight: Digital society

6 – 7 Bronze Age treasures on Must Farm 18 – 19 The accidental witness: digital whistle-blowing

8 – 9 Flamenco beyond the castanets 20 – 21 The right to be forgotten

10 – 11 Counterintuitive cancer drugs 22 – 23 Could cryptocurrency help the ‘bottom billion’?

12 – 13 What makes a sand dune sing? 24 – 25 The (conspiracy) theory of everything

14 – 15 How to keep patients safe in hospital 26 – 27 Plenty of phish in the sea

3 Research Horizons

Welcome

Around 3.5 billion people use the internet – that’s almost half 28 – 29 Computer says YES (but is it right?) of the world population. Our digital connectivity is rapidly transforming almost every aspect of our working and personal 30 – 31 Censorship: making the hidden visible lives. Soon, innovations that were inconceivable a few years ago will be commonplace – autonomous vehicles, devices that 32 – 33 When is a book not a book? diagnose disease, household appliances that talk to each other. Digital technologies being built in Cambridge and beyond are reshaping health, business, education, public services and the economy. Inside out A digital society – the Spotlight focus this issue – also raises challenges. The more connected we are, the more we open ourselves to risk, whether it’s from cybercrime, invasions 34 – 35 Welcome to the alien world of data of privacy, digital infrastructures that are not up to the job or, ultimately, the advent of machines that are more intelligent than we are. Here in Cambridge, we understand that addressing these challenges needs social sciences and computer sciences to work together, and we think this is an area where we make a difference. Among various initiatives, we have strategic research priorities in Digital Humanities, Big Data and Public Policy, and we are a partner in the UK’s national centre for data science, the Alan Turing Institute. In addition, the recently funded Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence will help us to look at some of the overarching issues at play. As well as our focus on digital society, we also cover a fascinating breadth of other areas in this edition of Research Horizons: singing sand dunes and flamenco flashmobs, a chance observation that led to a breakthrough cancer drug, how to keep patients safe in hospital, the sights, sounds and ‘feel’ of a data centre, and some of the amazing Bronze Age treasures discovered at what’s been dubbed ‘Britain’s Pompeii’.

Professor Chris Abell Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Research

Editor Dr Louise Walsh

Editorial advisors Professor Jon Crowcroft, Professor John Thompson

Design The District

Contributors Craig Brierley, Alex Buxton, Sarah Collins, Stuart Roberts, Tamsin Starr, Louise Walsh

T +44 (0)1223 765 443 E [email protected] W cam.ac.uk/research

Copyright ©2016 University of Cambridge and Contributors as identified. The content ofResearch Horizons, with the exception of images and illustrations, is made available for non-commercial re-use in another work under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-ShareAlike Licence (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/), subject to acknowledgement of the original author/s, the title of the individual work and the University of Cambridge. This Licence requires any new work with an adaptation of content to be distributed and re-licensed under the same licence terms. Research Horizons is produced by the University of Cambridge’s Office of External Affairs and Communications. 4 News

News

Hot ticket for air travel

Researchers have developed a paint- on anti-icing technology to make flying safer and more efficient.

Ice on a plane can spell disaster. It can increase drag, reduce lift, hit propellers and build up inside the engine. Every year, vast amounts of de-icers and anti- freeze are sprayed onto planes by ground staff while passengers wait – a solution that is costly, time-consuming and detrimental for the environment. Next Vice-Chancellor Image Now, airlines have an alternative Professor Stephen Toope that can be painted onto the plane and appointed turned on in the cockpit. Developed by Dr Dawid Janas and Dr Krzysztof International law scholar and university University (1983). He has published articles Koziol in the Department of Materials leader Professor Stephen Toope has been and books on change in international law, Science and Metallurgy, the ThaWing appointed to take over from Professor Sir and the origins of international obligation product comprises an ultralight coating of Leszek Borysiewicz on 1 October 2017. in international society. nanomaterials like carbon nanotubes or Toope also represented Western graphene, which have excellent thermal Currently Director of the University of Europe and North America on the UN and electrical properties. Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs, Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary As little as 80 g of material is needed Toope formerly served as president and Disappearances from 2002 until 2007. to cover the wings of a jumbo jet. When vice-chancellor of the University of British Cambridge has carried out an a current is passed through it, the Columbia. He graduated from Harvard with international search for the position of material has a near-instantaneous rise in a degree in history and literature in 1979, Vice-Chancellor headed up by the Master temperature – providing planes with their and is also an alumnus of Trinity College of Jesus College, Professor Ian White. own thermal ‘jacket’ to stop ice forming. Cambridge, where he completed his PhD He explains how the appointment will The paint-on ‘heaters’ are so cheap to run in 1987. build on seven years of Borysiewicz's that they could be left on continuously. “I am thrilled to be returning to this visionary leadership: “Professor Toope After receiving a Proof of Concept great university,” says Toope. “I look has impeccable academic credentials, grant from the European Research forward to working with staff and students a longstanding involvement with higher Council to produce a prototype, the in the pursuit of academic excellence and education, strong leadership experience researchers formed start-up company tremendous international engagement – and an excellent research background.” Cnergytec to deploy the system onto any the very mark of Cambridge.” Borysiewicz, who will continue to aircraft currently in operation to make As a scholar, Toope has specialised lead the University until Toope takes flying safer and more efficient. in human rights, international dispute up his post on 1 October 2017, says: resolution, international environmental “We are delighted to be welcoming www.thawing.eu law, the use of force, and international legal a distinguished leader with such an theory with degrees in common law (LLB) outstanding record as a scholar and Film available: and civil law (BCL) with honours from McGill educator to lead Cambridge.” http://bit.ly/2dboIuP

News in brief 10.10.16 04.10.16

Cambridge alumnus Professor Oliver Three Cambridge alumni More information at Hart shares the 2016 Nobel Memorial awarded the 2016 Nobel Prize Prize in Economic Sciences for work in Physics for their work in www.cam.ac.uk/research in the field of contracts. condensed matter. 5 Research Horizons

Artificial pancreas wins European funding

An artificial pancreas developed in Cambridge will be trialled in young children with type 1 diabetes.

Type 1 diabetes is one of the most common chronic diseases in children. Each year in the UK, around one in 4,000 children under 14 years of age is diagnosed with the disease, in which Cresques/wikimedia Jehuda Abraham and Credit: the pancreas stops producing sufficient insulin to regulate blood sugar levels. People affected by the condition have to manage their condition through regular insulin injections – in some cases, several times a day. However, a team at the University of Cambridge and Cambridge University Hospitals hopes to replace these treatments with a small portable device that carries out the function of What the Ancients He anticipates a “methodological a healthy pancreas in controlling blood pincer movement” to assess the physical glucose levels by automated insulin did for us archaeology of cities such as Rome, delivery. Athens and Istanbul, and the history of The system is worn externally on the Cities and writing: two new projects look ideas about urbanism, city planning and body, and is made up of three functional back 4,000 years at the roots of these citizenship. components: continuous glucose universal aspects of contemporary life. Meanwhile, Dr Philippa Steele leads monitoring, a computer algorithm to Contexts of and Relations between Early calculate the insulin dose, and an insulin Why did the ABC alphabet develop? Writing Systems, which is exploring the pump. How have the ancient cities of the long-lasting relationship between society Trials have shown that it is effective in Mediterranean contributed to the history and writing that persists today. adults and school children. Now, KidsAP, of urbanism? These are some of the For example, the ABC alphabetical a collaboration led by Cambridge and questions researchers in the Faculty order first appeared over 3,000 years ago involving institutes in Europe and the of Classics are tackling in two new in a wedge-shaped ‘cuneiform’ script USA, has received €4.6 million from the programmes funded by the European in Syria. It also appeared in otherwise European Commission to carry out a trial Research Council. unrelated alphabets including Phoenician, of the artificial pancreas among children Professor Andrew Wallace-Hadrill Greek, Etruscan and Latin. aged 1–7 years with type 1 diabetes. leads Impact of the Ancient City – a How did the idea spread and remain “We’ve already seen that the artificial project whose strength, he says, “is to so stable for thousands of years? “We pancreas can have a very positive effect dare to look over such chronological can only understand it by looking at on people’s lives and now, thanks to and geographical scope” as the Greco- the social settings in which writing was funding from the European Commission, Roman and Islamic worlds of the being used,” says Steele. Because of the we can see whether young children Mediterranean from 2,000 BC to the high level of interconnectedness of the will also see these same benefits,” present day. region, people were communicating these says project leader Dr Roman Hovorka “There is a continuous sense of ideas as they traded and interacted with from Cambridge’s Department of wonder at the phenomenon of the big different cultures. Paediatrics and Addenbrooke’s Hospital. city,” he explains. “The Ancients felt it and “Globalisation is not a purely modern “Children have to have frequent insulin wrote about it, and there’s now intense phenomenon,” she adds. “We might have injections that are at best inconvenient, interest in urbanisation. We want to look better technology to pursue it now, but but at worst painful. We hope this new back to these roots and trace their impact essentially we are engaging in the same technology will eliminate this need.” to the present day.” activities as our ancestors.”

14.09.16 30.07.16 22 .07.16

Cambridge to receive Some of the finest illuminated Humans and wild birds in £114 million government manuscripts in the world go on Africa collaborate through investment in NHS research to display in celebration of the special calls to find precious boost medical breakthroughs. Fitzwilliam Museum’s bicentenary. resources of honey and wax. 6 Features

Bronze Age exposé

ome of the stunning finds at Must Farm, a Cambridgeshire S settlement of roundhouses believed to be the best-preserved Bronze Age dwellings ever found in Britain.

Buried in silt for 3,000 years, the treasures provide a remarkable snapshot of everyday life. They were preserved after a community of stilted wooden houses were destroyed by fire and collapsed into the shallow river beneath. Recent excavation of what has been dubbed ‘Britain’s Pompeii’ was carried out by the Cambridge Archaeological Unit and funded by Historic England and Forterra. Work on the finds is now taking place at Cambridge’s McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research and other centres. Film available:

http://bit.ly/29V9FW3 Webb Archaeological Unit/Dave Cambridge images, All Credit: www.mustfarm.com 7 Research Horizons 8 ContentsFeatures

Beyond the castanets

Image olitical protest and social activism in gypsy and working class communities to Flamenco illustrates are not what first comes to mind a genre taught in conservatoires alongside the close relationship P when thinking of flamenco, but for more classical styles. Its listing as an ICH between music, some performers it has always been a raises important questions about culture identity and politics powerful tool for voicing political protest. and identity: how best to keep regional New research asks what happens when art forms alive and flourishing in an a musical genre becomes a powerful increasingly globalised world and, more Words symbol of regional identity. specifically, how musical forms intersect Alex Buxton with politics. For audiences around the world, flamenco Dr Matthew Machin-Autenrieth is symbolises the colour and romance of an ethnomusicologist in the Faculty of southern Spain. An energetic blend of Music. He is interested in how and why song, guitar and dance, it is most strongly music has come to be as it is. As an associated with Andalusia, a region richly expert on flamenco, he has a fascination influenced by its historic connections to for the shifting politics of what he sees Islamic North Africa. as a ‘grassroots’ art form that has been Flamenco has long been supported by packaged as a global commodity, a the Andalusian government, which sees symbol of regional identity and a tool for it as an important element of regional social activism. identity and a magnet for tourism. But in “Flamenco is perhaps Spain’s 2010 it garnered global recognition when most alluring cultural phenomenon, UNESCO designated it an Intangible characterised by the stereotypes of sun, Cultural Heritage of Humanity (ICH). passion and tumbling black hair,” he The designation was a seminal writes, in an article published recently by Credit: Flavio� on Flickr moment in the history of flamenco, which The Conversation. “Political protest and has progressed from a tradition embedded social activism are less likely to come to 9 Research Horizons

mind when thinking of flamenco, but for the activities of Flo6x8, members remain Andalusians themselves, emerged as some performers it has always been committed to flamenco as a political champions for an art form that had gained a powerful tool for voicing political weapon against continued social and negative stereotypes, and was under protest.” economic inequalities in Spain. attack by antiflamenquistas intent on Spain, and especially Andalusia, Building upon this research, Machin- depicting flamenco as an outdated cultural suffered immensely in the global economic Autenrieth has probed flamenco’s cultural phenomenon that was out of step with crisis, and has one of the highest levels complexity and contested politics. He Spain’s European ambitions. of unemployment in Europe. In 2011, asks how an iconic performative tradition In recent years, however, flamenco has the infamous 15M protest movement contributes to the formation of identity at seen an increase in institutional support in mobilised millions of citizens across the local, regional, national and international a country where regional identity is high on country to challenge policies of austerity levels in his new book, Flamenco, the agenda. But institutional involvement following the banking crisis. On the back Regionalism and Musical Heritage in in the arts can be counter-productive. of this movement, the anti-capitalist Southern Spain. Making a point that could apply equally flashmob group Flo6x8 “rebranded Much has been written, and contested, to other art forms, Machin-Autenrieth flamenco as a powerful political weapon”, about the origins of flamenco, which quotes the Spanish sociologist Aix Gracia, he explains, when they staged flamenco emerged as a genre only in the mid-19th who argues that “the affability with which performances in banks all over Andalusia century when it was ‘discovered’ by the administrations treat flamenco in and even in the Andalusian parliament. middle class audiences searching for Andalusia, through ‘festivalisation’ and “By claiming public, capitalist the exoticism and romanticism of folk its preservation as a representation of spaces, the performers give a powerful traditions. Its deeper roots are entwined identity, is also its biggest threat… political message that challenges the with the music of gypsies and other I cannot resist the question: could this art status quo. But these performances also marginalised groups. Its themes play on die of success? Or more specifically, could break with typical gendered stereotypes the highs and lows of human experience it lose its autonomy?” in flamenco. The exotic, seductive and – love and loss, death and sorrow – In exploring the question of artistic ‘oriental’ image of the female dancer is reflecting the suffering of a population freedom, Machin-Autenrieth attended turned on its head. Instead the female living in a region scarred by centuries of dozens of flamenco performances and dancers in these performances become feudalism. interviewed many of those involved as powerful, political figures.” Flamenco is not universally popular artists and promoters. He describes the Although a new law introduced by the in its country of origin. “Many Spaniards tensions that exist between the styles Spanish government in 2015 restricted I have met (from outside Andalusia) of flamenco approved by the heritage disregard and even detest the conflation industry and those out of favour with the of flamenco with Spanish-ness, viewing dominant institutions. Strength of feeling it as nothing more than an Andalusian- against the institutional development Gypsy tradition,” says Machin-Autenrieth. of flamenco led to the emergence of “However, arguably, a process of Flamenco es un derecho (Flamenco is appropriation is occurring within a right), a protest movement that claims Andalusia, the tradition being developed flamenco is a gift to humanity – but one by institutions and in the popular media as over which Andalusians have a right. a definitive symbol of regional identity.” Much research on flamenco has In setting the context for his focused on the role of three cities (Seville, discussion, Machin-Autenrieth traces the Cádiz and Jerez) as the defining ‘golden recent history of flamenco, which was triangle’ for its performance. As well as repressed and then appropriated by the exploring the regional politics behind Franco regime. When the regime ended in flamenco, Machin-Autenrieth looks beyond the mid-1970s, Spain underwent a process the ‘golden triangle’ to examine the of democratisation and decentralisation relevance of flamenco for local identity in during which flamenco was used as a Granada beyond its regional associations. political tool, becoming a potent marker Spanish identity, by virtue of the of the culture of Andalusia. Its popularity country’s history, is strongly local. To may not be universal across the region be Andalusian is to feel a strong sense but, by virtue of educational initiatives and of regional belonging. With flamenco, a festivals, all Andalusians are familiar with sense of locality splits even further into the its distinctive style. competing styles performed in different Music has a powerful cohesive cities, clubs and venues. It is this richness effect on communities, and orally-based of diversity, rather than adherence to traditions in particular offer a voice to proscribed authenticity, he says, that will groups who might remain unheard. But keep the genre moving forward. when music is appropriated by institutions, Machin-Autenrieth’s work shows the its authenticity and relevance for local hidden complexities of flamenco both as Dr Matthew Machin-Autenrieth communities may be under threat, he a tool for political protest and as a marker Faculty of Music explains. of regional identity. “Beyond the castanets [email protected] Concerns about the alleged and polka-dot dresses, flamenco is a commercialisation of flamenco are diverse and politically contested tradition nothing new. Early in the 20th century, that illustrates the close relationship the poet Federico García Lorca and between music, identity and politics in a the composer Manuel de Falla, both globalised world.” 10 ContentsFeatures

A deliberate lack of common sense

hen you’re under attack, you counterintuitive approach to cancer: to fight back. You gather your switch off a mechanism that is meant to W troops and attack the invading repair our DNA and prevent it mutating, enemy, hoping to wound and defeat akin to taking out your army medics. them, while supporting and treating Jackson, like all of the researchers your own injured soldiers. It’s common at the Gurdon, is a basic scientist – in sense. other words, his work looks at the fundamental biology that underpins how If you’re based at the Wellcome our bodies work. Basic science is rarely Trust/Cancer Research UK Gurdon fashionable, rarely flashy, but without it Institute, however, the common sense we would have few of the medicines we approach is not necessarily the road take for granted today. most travelled – and for good reason. However, this process also takes time: The word ‘counterintuitive’ is one you will Lynparza, the medicine that resulted from hear surprisingly often when you talk to Jackson’s work, was granted Marketing its researchers about their work. Authorisation from the European No one illustrates this better than Commission and the US Food and Drug Professor Steve Jackson, who has been Administration in 2014, more than two at the Institute since it opened 25 years decades after he began researching this Words ago and made his name – and a new area; the drug is now available in over 40 Craig Brierley class of cancer drug – from a seemingly countries worldwide. 11 Research Horizons

the strongest cells. “It’s a kind of quality “The hardest thing for me was getting control,” she explains. “But it’s been suggested for some time that cancer cells somehow disguise themselves, making people to buy into the idea as it was them look stronger so they can kill off their neighbours and colonise their space.” counterintuitive: why would you She believes this may help explain why, as cancers spread throughout the body – or ‘metastasise’ – they cause organ want to inhibit DNA repair?” failure. “There will come a point where there are no longer enough healthy cells for the organ to continue to function.” In fact, as with a surprising amount proportion of prostate cancer cases may Many existing chemotherapy drugs of science, his breakthrough moment was be linked to BRCA gene mutations, and encourage apoptosis. Not only does this the result of a chance observation. He co- to one in ten cases of breast cancer; cause collateral damage to healthy cells discovered an enzyme that was activated if Lynparza is approved for all of these – which is why chemotherapy patients by DNA, and then observed that it was patients, it could make a huge difference get so sick – but, says Piddini, apoptosis actually activated by breaks in DNA. Most to survival rates. The drug isn’t perfect is exactly the process that cancer cells DNA used in labs is circular, but Jackson – it doesn’t work in all BRCA patients are using against healthy cells. So was using ‘strings’ of DNA, which have and some patients develop resistance to once again, this leads to a seemingly ends. the drug – but it is clearly extending and counterintuitive solution: stop cell death. “If I’d been using circular DNA, I’d enhancing many lives. “If you can somehow inhibit apoptosis, have never seen this effect and I never “We all hope to cure cancer, and then you can keep the healthy cells alive. would have developed my career in this PARP inhibitors are curing a small And if you keep the healthy cells alive, you direction, but this discovery made me proportion of patients,” says Jackson, stop the cancer cells spreading and the think ‘Wow, maybe because this enzyme “but what we’re doing is moving cancer tumour should die away.” is activated by breaks, it must be involved towards becoming a long-term disease This is still very early stage research: in DNA repair’. When you’re working that is kept in check through different to some extent, Piddini is where Jackson in basic science and you follow your phases. That’s a good business model for was not long after he first joined the nose, you can spot things and hopefully pharmaceutical companies, ensuring that Gurdon, but as for PARP inhibitors, she recognise what they’re telling you – and in they invest in this area, but most of all, it’s believes her approach shows a great my case, it was saying ‘Maybe you want good for the patients.” deal of promise. “I hope that one day to work on DNA repair’.” Jackson jokes that he had much more we’ll talk about this in the same way we It was a second DNA repair enzyme hair when he started out – running his own talk about Steve’s work now,” she says – known as PARP – that was to lead to company alongside his work, and trying to enthusiastically. the development of olaparib (marketed get others to support his approach “nearly Piddini – talked of as one of the as Lynparza) and to Jackson setting up did me in,” he laughs. “The hardest thing rising stars in her field – will be leaving his own company, KuDOS, as he saw its for me was getting people to buy into the Cambridge next summer for the potential as a drug target. KuDOS was idea as it was counterintuitive: why would University of Bristol. Jackson believes her eventually bought out by AstraZeneca, you want to inhibit DNA repair? DNA move further emphasises the strengths of the pharmaceutical giant that will soon repair’s good – that’s what the pharma the Gurdon Institute. move its headquarters to Cambridge. companies said, that’s what the venture “You can tell a successful research DNA repair is so important to our capitalists initially said.” environment by its alumni,” he says, survival that we have evolved a backup Just as Jackson’s work eschews the “by looking at who has trained there mechanism in case PARP fails, known common sense approach, so too does the and has moved on to lead a group as homologous recombination, in which work of his colleague Dr Eugenia Piddini. elsewhere.” At the last count, since its DNA is exchanged between identical If switching off cells’ repair mechanisms launch in 1991, the Gurdon has created pieces of DNA to repair it. In some cancer sounds counterintuitive, then so does the 200 group leaders around the world. cells – most notably those associated idea of stopping the mechanism that is That’s quite an army of scientists fighting with mutations in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 intended to cause diseased cells to fall on counterintuitive battles. genes – this mechanism fails. Tumour their swords – programmed cell death, or cells in individuals with these genes ‘apoptosis’. www.gurdon.cam.ac.uk carry two ‘bad’ copies of the gene, which Like many of the scientists at the inactivates homologous recombination, Gurdon, Piddini mostly works on much Professor Steve Jackson but the individual’s healthy cells carry one simpler organisms than humans. In Wellcome Trust/Cancer Research good copy, meaning that they can still addition to studying human cells, UK Gurdon Institute carry out this process. Jackson also works on yeast, while [email protected] “This was a ‘Eureka’ moment,” says Piddini complements her mammalian Jackson. “We realised that if you block studies with work on the fruit fly. We may Dr Eugenia Piddini the PARP repair mechanism in these not have shared a common ancestor for Wellcome Trust/Cancer Research individuals, the healthy cells revert to their hundreds of millions of years – a billion, UK Gurdon Institute backup and survive, but the tumour cells even – but we still share many of the [email protected] have no backup and so will die.” fundamental processes that take place in Just under one in three cases of our bodies. ovarian cancer is caused by the BRCA Piddini looks at the competition genes, and it is for these individuals that that takes place between cells, and in Lynparza has been licensed. Recent particular how cells talk to each other Film available: studies suggest that around the same and how this enables the tissue to select http://bit.ly/2aGkEyU 12 ContentsFeatures

hen solids flow like liquids they behaviour starts with observation, which I can make sand dunes sing, then incorporate into a model – it’s nature W and they can also result in a where I get my inspiration from. That, and potentially deadly avalanche. Cambridge curiosity – I see something and I want to researchers are studying the physics try to explain it. behind both of these phenomena, which “Since there are particles which could have applications in industries collide and interact in a granular such as pharmaceuticals, oil and gas. flow, there is a certain degree of randomness to the process, so how For Marco Polo, the desert could be do you incorporate that into a model? a spooky place, filled with evil spirits. You try to translate what you’re seeing Writing in the 13th century, he described into a physical description, and then the famous singing sands, which “at you perform numerical or theoretical times fill the air with the sounds of all simulations to see if the behaviour you kinds of musical instruments, and also get from the models is the same as you of drums and the clash of arms.” But the observe in nature.” low, loud rumbles coming from the dunes Despite their somewhat chaotic were not the work of spirits. They were nature, avalanches and other types the work of physics. of granular flows share some distinct As grains of sand slide down the side patterns. Owing to a phenomenon known of certain dunes, they create vibrations as segregation, larger particles tend to that can be heard for miles around. The rise to the top in an avalanche, whereas sand avalanches trigger the dune’s natural smaller particles sink to the bottom, resonance, but only when conditions are falling into the gaps between the larger just right. It can’t be too humid, and the particles. A similar phenomenon can be

grains of sand need to be just the right seen in your breakfast cereal: the smaller, size and contain silica. Only then will tastier bits always seem to end up at the an avalanche cause the dunes to start bottom of the bowl. Larger grains are also singing. pushed to the side and the front, forcing An avalanche, whether it’s made of the flow of the avalanche into channels. sand or snow, is an example of a granular Similar processes are at work in flow, when solid particles flow like liquids, sand dunes. As wind blows across colliding, bouncing around, interacting, a dune, there is segregation of the separating and coming back together individual grains of sand, as well as small again. Granular flow processes can be avalanches taking place on the granular found everywhere from the world’s highest scale. But for a sand dune that is 40 m mountains to your morning bowl of cereal. high, there are also processes taking Dr Nathalie Vriend, a Royal Society place on the macro scale. The entire Dorothy Hodgkin Research Fellow in dune itself can move and race across the the Department of Applied Mathematics desert floor. Small dunes migrate faster and Theoretical Physics, is a specialist than large dunes, as if playing a “catch in granular flows. Her PhD research at me if you can game”. the California Institute of Technology A cross section of a typical sand dune unravelled some of the physics at work would reveal a slope on one side of a in the same singing sands that mystified ridge, and a sharp drop on the other. As Marco Polo. At Cambridge, her research the wind blows across the dune, it pushes focuses both on sand dunes and on grains of sand up the slope, where they avalanches, and how to quantify their gather in a heap. When the heap gets too behaviour, which can have practical big, it becomes unstable and tumbles applications in industries including over the other side, causing an avalanche, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas. Vriend’s eventually coming to a stop. This process work relies as much upon laboratory happens again and again, causing experiments and fieldwork as it does on layers to form within the dune. “A sand mathematical models. dune may look like a monolithic mass of “An avalanche can behave as a solid, sand, but there are multiple layers and liquid or gas, depending on various structures within it,” says Vriend. factors, which is what makes them How does this understanding of the so difficult to model mathematically,” anatomy and movement of a sand dune Words says Vriend. “For me, modelling their translate into practical applications? Sarah Collins 13 ResearchResearch HorizonsHorizons

WHAT MAKES A SAND DUNE SING?

Another industrial problem that Vriend’s group is currently working on is the phenomenon of ‘honking’ grain silos. As grains are let out of the bottom of a silo, the friction of the pellets on the walls of the silo makes a distinctive ‘honking’ sound. Annoying for the neighbours perhaps, but hardly dangerous. However, when the vibrations get loud enough, it can cause a resonance within the silo, leading to structural failure or collapse. Vriend’s students are attempting to understand what affects the way that silos honk, which could someday be used to minimise noise, or even to prevent collapse. The phenomenon behind honking silos on a busy farm is similar to that Understanding granular flows can be different points to listen to the signal that which causes massive desert sand dunes useful in the pharmaceutical industry, is received, which can then be used to to sing, although one could be perceived where two different active ingredients calculate what is hidden underground. as an annoyance while the other is may need to be mixed properly before a The problem encountered by surveyors is considered captivating. For Vriend, pill is made. Granular flows are also highly that the sand dunes are composed of however, it’s the real-world observations relevant to the oil and gas exploration loose sand and therefore have a much and the opportunity to spend time in process, and with this in mind Vriend is lower wave velocity than the rocky nature that motivate her. working with Schlumberger, the oilfield desert floor, and as a result they act as She explains: “What I love about my services company. traps of wave energy: the energy keeps research, whether it’s looking at silos or Sand dunes are major sources of reverberating and creates a source avalanches, is that you can observe it, noise in seismic surveys for oil and of noise in the post-processing of the see it, feel it, touch it.” gas in deserts, which are conducted seismic surveys. As part of a secondment to probe the location and size of at Schlumberger, one of Vriend’s PhD Dr Nathalie Vriend underground oil and gas reserves. The students is performing numerical Department of Applied Mathematics surveys use an acoustic pulse from a simulations to understand the origin and Theoretical Physics source and carefully placed receivers at and features of this noise. [email protected] 14 Features

ealthcare is a complex beast and too often problems arise H that can put patients’ health – and in some cases, lives – at risk. A collaboration between the Cambridge Centre for Health Services Research and the Department of Engineering hopes to get to the bottom of what’s going wrong – and to offer new ways of solving the problems. Safety

PLASMA

In November 2004, Mary McClinton few with widespread success, and often their antibiotics when there were no was admitted to Virginia Mason Medical with unintended consequences. antibiotics in the hospital, for example.” Center in Seattle, USA, to receive Financial incentives are widely used They also reinforced the hierarchies – treatment for a brain aneurysm, a in the NHS and in the USA, but recent nurses had to try to get surgeons to do potentially serious swelling in a blood evidence suggests that they have little certain tasks, but the surgeons used it vessel. What followed was a tragedy, effect. “There’s a danger that they tend as an opportunity to display their power made worse by the fact that it was to encourage effort substitution – what and refuse. entirely preventable. people often refer to as ‘teaching to Problems are compounded by a lack McClinton was mistakenly injected the test’,” explains Dixon-Woods. In of standardisation. Dixon-Woods and with the antiseptic chlorhexidine. It other words, people focus on the areas her team spend time in hospitals to try to happened, the hospital says, because that are being incentivised, but neglect understand which systems are in place of “confusion over the three identical other areas. “It’s not even necessarily and how they are used. Not only does she stainless steel bowls in the procedure conscious neglect. People have only a find differences in approaches between room containing clear liquids — limited amount of time, so it’s inevitable hospitals, but also between units and chlorhexidine, contrast dye and saline they focus on areas that are measured even between shifts. “Standardisation solution”. Doctors tried amputating one of and rewarded: it’s an economy of and harmonisation are two of the most her legs to save her life, but the damage attention as much as anything else.” urgent issues we have to tackle. Imagine to her organs was too great: McClinton In 2013, Dixon-Woods and colleagues if you have to learn each new system died 19 days later. published a study, funded by the wherever you go or even whenever a Nine years on, an almost identical Wellcome Trust, evaluating the use of new senior doctor is on the ward. This accident occurred at Doncaster Royal surgical checklists introduced in hospitals introduces massive risk.” Infirmary in the UK. Here, the patient, to reduce complications and deaths Even when an institution manages to ‘Gina’, survived, but only after having her during surgery. The checklists have make genuine improvements in patient leg amputated. become the most widely used patient safety, too often these interventions Professor Mary Dixon-Woods is one safety intervention in the world and cannot be replicated elsewhere or scaled of Cambridge’s newest recruits, and she are recommended by the World Health up, leading to the curse of “worked once”, is on a mission: to improve patient safety Organization. Yet, the evidence shows as she describes it. in the National Health Service and in that checklists may have little impact, and One place that has managed to break healthcare worldwide. She has recently her research found that in some situations this pattern is Northern Ireland, which has taken up the role as RAND Professor – particularly in low-income countries – overcome the problem of poor labelling of Health Services Research, having they might even make things worse. of lines such as intravenous lines and moved here from the University of “The checklists sometimes introduced urinary catheters. A sick patient may have Leicester. new risks. Nurses would use the lists several different lines attached to them; It is, she admits, going to be a as a box-ticking exercise rather than as these were not labelled in any consistent challenge. Many different policies and a true reflection of events – they would way – if at all – so a nurse might use the approaches have been tried to date, but tick the box to say the patient had had wrong line or leave a line in place too 1515 ResearchResearch HorizonsHorizons

Professor Mary Dixon-Woods Cambridge Centre for Health Services Research Department of Public Health and Primary Care [email protected]

Professor John Clarkson Engineering Design Centre Department of Engineering [email protected]

Words Craig Brierley SALINE

in numbers

DEXTROSE

long, risking infection. Over 18 months, doesn’t come built as one like an aircraft may be of value. I have no doubt that if the health service in Northern Ireland cockpit. This is not a problem a hospital you were to put a hundred engineers into came up with a solution. Soon, whether can solve alone. It needs to be solved at Addenbrooke’s [Hospital], you could help you are in a hospital, a nursing home or the sector level.” transform its care.” a hospice, every line will be labelled the Dixon-Woods has turned to Professor There is a difficulty, he concedes: same way. John Clarkson in Cambridge’s Engineering “There’s no formal language of design “I’m interested in how they managed Design Centre to help. Clarkson has in healthcare. Do we understand what to achieve that and what we can learn been interested in patient safety for over the need is? Do we understand what that can be used in the next place that a decade; in 2004, his team published a the requirements are? Can we think of wants to standardise their lines.” report for the Chief Medical Officer entitled a range of concepts we might use and Dixon-Woods compares the issue of ‘Design for patient safety – a system-wide then design a solution and test it before patient safety to that of climate change, design-led approach to tackling patient we put it in place? We seldom see this in the sense that it is a “problem of many safety in the NHS’. in healthcare, and that’s partly driven by hands”, with many actors, each making “Fundamentally, my work is about culture and lack of training, but partly by a contribution towards the outcome, and asking how can we make it better and lack of time.” where it is difficult to identify who has what could possibly go wrong,” explains Dixon-Woods agrees that healthcare responsibility for solving the problem. Clarkson. It is not, he says, just about can learn much from how engineers “Many patient safety issues arise at technology, but about the system and the approach problems. “Medical science the level of the system as a whole, but people within the system. When he trains tends to prioritise trials and particular policies treat patient safety as an issue healthcare professionals, he avoids using types of evidence, whereas engineering for each individual organisation.” words like ‘risk’, which mean different things does rapid tests. Randomised controlled Nowhere is this more apparent than in medicine and engineering, and instead trials do have a vital role, but on their the issue of ‘alarm fatigue’. Each bed in asks questions to get them thinking about own they’re not the whole solution. There an intensive care unit typically generates the system. has to be a way of getting our two sides 160 alarms per day, caused by machinery “We need to look through the eyes talking.” that is not integrated. “You have to of the healthcare providers to see the Only then, she says, will we be able assemble all the kit around an intensive challenges and to understand where tools to prevent further tragedies such as the care bed manually,” she explains. “It and techniques we use in engineering death of Mary McClinton. 16 Things

Things Rescuing Sebastiano’s Adoration of the Shepherds

ainted in the 16th century, severely As a result of the treatment in the damaged and badly repaired in 18th century, half the Virgin’s face P the 18th century, Sebastiano’s disappeared, only a hint of the beauty of masterpiece has been brought back her ultramarine cloak remained, and large to life after a decade of research and sections of the foreground were missing. restoration by Cambridge’s Hamilton The attempt to patch it up by repainting Kerr Institute. made its appearance even worse. “It was a ghost of the painting it had Whoever was charged by the Duc de once been,” says Rupert Featherstone, Orléans with detaching the Adoration of Director of the Fitzwilliam Museum’s the Shepherds from its wooden support Hamilton Kerr Institute (HKI). “We knew and transferring it onto canvas must have from comparison with another version had a moment of deep shock. in the Louvre in Paris that the repaint 17 Research Horizons Credit: The Fitzwilliam The Credit: Museum

Image Composite showing the stages of conservation (left to right): before treatment, after cleaning to reveal the 18th-century paint loss, after treatment

no longer reflected Sebastiano’s quality reconstruction. As part of the project, HKI is a department of the Fitzwilliam or vision. It was too disfigured even to a microscopic particle of the Virgin’s Museum and undertakes conservation, display.” blue robe was analysed to understand educates painting conservators and Now, 300 years later, the masterpiece Sebastiano’s technique, revealing how contributes to scientific, technical and has been restored almost to how it would he built up his glowing colours using art historical research. have looked when it was painted 500 complex layers. years ago by Sebastiano del Piombo, a The masterpiece is now on show www.hki.fitzmuseum.cam.ac.uk friend of Michelangelo. at the Fitzwilliam for the first time in 60 It’s one of the largest projects years. “When you get close, you can see Film available: conservators at the HKI have undertaken what’s damaged and what’s not – that’s http://bit.ly/29Pj3HA in the Institute’s 40-year history – it always going to be part of its history – you took ten years of painstaking research, can’t go back,” adds Featherstone. Words scientific analysis and layer-by-layer “But it certainly does live again now.” Louise Walsh 18 Spotlight: Digital society THE ACCIDENTAL

Words WITNESS Louise Walsh Credit: All images, Lars Klevberg

martphones and social media desperately. The fear on their faces is It also drew attention to an have made it easy for accidental palpable. increasingly common scenario: fake S witnesses “in the wrong place at This is the ‘Syrian Hero Boy’. The footage appearing on social media. “By the wrong time” to capture and share footage appeared on 10 November 2014 publishing a clip that could appear to be violations and crimes. But how can we on YouTube and it quickly went viral as authentic, we hoped to take advantage tell what’s real and what’s fake? millions of viewers watched, astonished of a tool that’s often used in war; make a at the boy’s bravery and shocked at a video that claims to be real,” he said. The footage is shaky but the sounds world that could place children in such In our digitally enabled world, a legion of gunfire and “Allahu Akbar!” are danger. of ‘civilian witnesses’ has sprung up: unmistakable as the boy darts along the But further shock was to come. The individuals “in the wrong place at the dusty road towards the burnt-out car. film was fake. It was filmed in Malta on the wrong time” who capture an event and Puffs of smoke erupt around him. He falls set of Gladiator by Norwegian film-maker then publish the scrap of footage or the to his knees. Has he been shot? It’s hard Lars Klevberg. incriminating photograph on social media. to tell, but a moment later he is up again, Klevberg’s intention was to spur But amid the fog of propaganda, hoaxes running for the shelter of the abandoned debate about children and war. By and digital manipulation, how can we tell car. Yet it’s not over. He emerges holding pretending the film was real, he believed what’s real and what’s fake? the hand of an even younger girl dressed that “people would share it and react Cambridge researchers are in pink. They run, hesitantly at first, then with hope.” developing an automated tool, ‘the 19 Research Horizons

Whistle’, to help verify the authenticity of digital evidence. Behind the Whistle is sociologist Dr Ella McPherson: “There is much excitement about the speed with which news can be captured by bystanders and disseminated on social media. In the field of human rights, it allows fact-finders for NGOs to get digital reports of violations from hard-to-reach places. “In a country such as Syria, which is largely closed to outside observers, YouTube videos are a crucial source of information for people within and without its borders and contribute to an information environment incomparable to the past.” She mentions footage that appeared on social media in 2013 which Syrian opposition activists claimed as being evidence of a chemical weapons attack. The Whistle is a digital platform that Image An expert told the BBC that the footage speeds up the whole process. Being ‘Syrian Hero Boy’ – or is it? was consistent with such an attack, developed for mobile and web, the app although he cautioned that it was difficult eases the process of reporting for the local organisations.” Although civilians to verify the film owing to the absence witness, and prompts them to furnish may never have heard of the Whistle, they of metadata. Meanwhile the state-run the information needed by the fact-finder are likely to be aware of the support of a news agency SANA said the claims were for verification – the “who, what, why, local NGO, who would then direct them “baseless” and an attempt to distract where, when” metadata. A ‘dashboard’ towards the tool as a means to submit United Nations weapons inspectors. then aggregates the information and information. “It would then be up to the “This example shows the nature automates the cross-checking process NGO to decide what to do with the data,” of the terrain we are now in: news is of comparing the civilian witness report she explains. disseminated fast but verification is slow to the many databases that are used to McPherson is reflective when she and often contested,” says McPherson. corroborate reliability. considers the implications of a digital “For human rights NGOs, credibility can “We knew from fact-finders that world that requires tools such as the be lost in a moment if the evidence they civilian witnesses do not necessarily Whistle to verify trustworthiness. are using for advocacy or in courts is know what metadata is or that they “Reporting violations and fact-finding later found to be false. No matter how should include it with their information are communicative acts of ‘bearing devastating the documented violations, – even something as simple as panning witness’ – inherently human activities that they cannot act on them unless they can the horizon for landmarks or turning involve solidarity, support and rapport. verify them first.” on geolocation features. The Whistle Technological innovations mean that we Many guidelines, handbooks and tools prompts them for the information at the may increasingly have to replace this now exist to help the verification process. time of upload, so the fact-finders don’t with reporting to a machine – how do you The ‘witness’ can be checked through have to piece it together later. It also balance that opportunity with safeguards their digital footprint – their organisational provides individuals with information around traumatisation? This is something affiliations or a social media profile, literacy – helps them understand what we don’t yet have answers for.” for instance. The image itself can be characteristics their information should Nevertheless, she and her team corroborated through comparison with ideally have in order to do things for are aware that an increase in digital landmarks and weather data, or checked them.” information on human rights violations using tools that ‘reverse image search’ for Initially funded by Cambridge’s only translates into evidence once it is previous publication. Economic and Social Research Council validated. “Tools like the Whistle are However, all of this takes precious Impact Acceleration Account, the Whistle desperately needed by fact-finders to time, which may introduce bias – those is now funded by the European Union reduce the labour time in sifting the wheat who are easier to verify may be more as part of ‘ChainReact’, a multi-partner from the chaff, and to make it easier for likely to be heard than those who have programme to support whistle-blowing them to evaluate more digital information few resources and a minimal digital in business. The team has grown to six for evidence. footprint. members and plans to start using the “We hope that our platform will Through her research interests in demo of the Whistle to gain feedback increase the possibility that those who how social media can be used by human from NGOs and civilian witnesses. report violations receive attention, and rights NGOs for generating governmental McPherson sees the Whistle as a tool particularly that those who most need accountability, McPherson became for NGOs to use in the field, rather than as access to human rights mechanisms are increasingly aware that fact-finders were a global repository of information, since heard.” struggling with the torrent of information. the latter would create security risks for Time spent verifying was in danger of the whistle-blowers: “Security challenges www.thewhistle.org crippling this most powerful means of vary a lot according to context, and we communication. For Syria, fact-finders don’t see ourselves as ever being able to have described the number of videos anticipate all the security challenges of a Dr Ella McPherson and photos as becoming a ‘Big Data’ local context – it depends on the threat Department of Sociology problem. model. So we always want to partner with [email protected] 20 Spotlight: Digital society

The digital identity crisis

any of us see our privacy One enforcement Erdos refers to is Erdos explains that data protection as a basic right. But in the Google Spain, a ruling made in 2014 by doesn’t always work as it was originally M digital world of app-addiction, the Court of Justice of the European intended to. “On paper, the law is in geolocation tracking and social Union (CJEU) that examined search favour of privacy and the protection of oversharing, some may have cause engines’ responsibilities when sharing individuals – there are stringent rules to wonder if that right is steadily and content about us on the world wide web. around data export, data transparency sometimes willingly being eroded away. The CJEU ruled that people across and sensitive data, for example. all of the 28 EU Member States have a “But that law was in essence The freedom of expression and the ‘right to be forgotten’ online, giving them developed in the 1970s, when there were need for privacy may be strange an ability to prohibit search engines few computers. Now we have billions of bedfellows today – but could full-blown indexing inadequate, irrelevant or other computers, and the ease of connectivity estrangement beckon in a digital future illegal information about them against of smartphones and the internet. that makes the leap from user-controlled Also, sharing online is not practically content to unfiltered, online sharing of, constrained by EU boundaries. well, everything? “That means the framework is A future where streaming your “For consumers to feel profoundly challenged. There needs to be life online becomes the norm is not safe with emerging a more contextual legal approach, where unthinkable, according to Dr David Erdos, the duties and possibly also the scope whose research in the Faculty of Law technology law take into account risk as well as the other explores the nature of data protection. rights and interests that are engaged. “Take somthing like Snapchat Spectacles makers may have to That law must then be effectively or Google Glass,” he says. “Such legislate for potential enforced.” technology could very quickly take off, In fact, the EU data protection and all of a sudden it becomes ‘normal’ breaches now” law currently extends surprisingly far. that everyone is recording everything, “By default, the law regulates anyone both audibly and visually, and the data who alone, or jointly with others, does is going everywhere and being used for their name. This right to be forgotten is anything with computerised information all sorts of purposes – some individual, based on Europe’s data protection laws that mentions a living person,” Erdos some organisational.” and applies to all online information about explains. “That could include many This makes questions about what a living person. individuals on social networking sites. If control we have over our digital footprint Google responded by publishing a you’re disseminating information about rather urgent. form you can submit to have such links to a third party to an indeterminate number “You can see that we need to get content (not the actual content) removed. of people, you’re (in theory at least) some grip on how the right to privacy can I put it to the test – Google refuses on responsible for adherence to this law.” be enforced as technologies continue to the basis that web links to my long- Tweeters, for instance, may have to develop that can pose serious threats to closed business are ‟justified” as they respond to requests for data (Tweets) individuals’ sense of dignity, reputation, ‟may be of interest to potential or current to be rectified for inaccuracy or even privacy and safety,” he adds. consumers”. removed entirely, and field ‘subject 21 Research Horizons

Words Tamsin Starr access requests’ for full lists of everything getting a coordinated and clear approach half said the academic’s activity would they’ve Tweeted about someone. And on how its citizens can exercise their data be unlawful. under the new General Data Protection protection rights. “Academics aim to write something of Regulation that comes into effect in “We are giving these regulators quite public importance, and make it rigorous. 2018, the maximum penalty for an enormous powers to enforce these rules The old law was seen to prioritise even infringement is €20 million (or, in the case and yet do we have a good understanding tittle-tattle in a newspaper over academic of companies, up to 4% of annual global of what we want the outcome to be and research; one hopes this will largely be turnover). what we’re expecting individuals and removed by the new law.” When it comes to search engines organisations to do?” Erdos ponders. For many, the greatest concern or social media, Erdos admits that a “To me, this means that the remains the potential threats to their strict application of the law is “not very enforcement will become more and more privacy. In order for consumers to feel realistic”. He adds: “There’s a systemic important. Data protection is not just a safe with emerging technology, law problem in the gap between the law on technical phrase – people really do need makers may have to legislate for potential the books and the law in reality, and the protection. The substance of the law breaches now, rather than react after the restrictions are not desperately enforced.” needs to be hauled into something that’s damage is done. Erdos believes inconsistencies in more reasonable. That protection needs “We don’t want to respond in a panic the law could be exploited online by to be made real.” of registering or documenting everything, the ruthless. “The very danger of all- Erdos’ research also explores the but the alternative of collapse into an encompassing, stringent laws is that it nature of data protection and academic ‘anything goes’ situation is equally seems as if responsible organisations freedom, and he successfully argued dangerous. and individuals who take them seriously for academic expression to be added to “Apps like Snapchat show many are hamstrung while the irresponsible do the list of free speech derogations in the people value being able to upload whatever they want.” 2018 legislation. “I have come across the certain pictures and information that This also applies to ‘derogations’ – most egregious examples of research soon disappear. We don’t want people areas where the law instructs a balance guidance stipulating alleged data forgetting what they’re sharing today, must be struck between data protection protection requirements, including claims and then worrying far too late how third and the rights to freedom of journalistic, that published research can’t include any parties are using that information.” literary and artistic expression. identifiable personal data at all,” says Would Erdos himself ever use “Member states have done radically Erdos. Snapchat Spectacles or Google Glass different things in their formal law here – “In a survey of EU data protection (he does own a smartphone)? He laughs. from nothing at all through to providing a authorities, I asked whether a journalist’s “Let’s face it, email, the internet, Google blanket exception – neither of which was undercover investigation into extremist search… people ended up having to use the intention of the EU scheme.” political beliefs and tactics and an them. So, never say never!” As the new law in 2018 will empower academic’s undercover research into regulators to hand out fines of up to widespread claims of police racism could Dr David Erdos hundreds of millions of euros to large be legal under data protection. Not one Faculty of Law multinational companies, Erdos is regulator said the activity of the journalist [email protected] passionate about the urgency of Europe would in principle be illegal, but almost 22 Spotlight: DigitalContents society

COULD CRYPTOCURRENCY...

# byte-swap and dword-swap

= params =

any of the world’s poorest poor $581.6 billion global remittances in 2015 and the failure of approximately 2% of all don’t have access to a bank were sent to developing countries. international transfers to be successfully

obj[‘params’] = []

obj[‘params’]

{ ‘Authorization’ : self.authhdr, : ‘Authorization’ { ‘Content-type’ : ‘application/json’ }) ‘application/json’ : ‘Content-type’

print “JSON-RPC: no response” no “JSON-RPC: print return None return

print “JSON-RPC: cannot JSON-decode cannot body” “JSON-RPC: print return None return

return resp_obj[‘error’]return

print “JSON-RPC: no result in object” return None return

(((x) >> 8)(((x) & 0x0000ff00) >> 24) )) >> | ((x) M account and yet depend on But how can cryptocurrencies help? completed. These all negatively impact # encode 32-bit nonce value being able to transfer money across Since its launch in 2009, bitcoin, the most remittances.”

else:

self.conn.request(‘POST’, ‘/’, json.dumps(obj), ‘/’, self.conn.request(‘POST’,

resp = self.conn.getresponse() = resp if resp is None:

body = resp.read() resp_obj = json.loads(body) = resp_obj if resp_obj is None:

if ‘error’ in resp_obj and resp_obj[‘error’] != None:

if ‘result’ not in resp_obj:

return resp_obj[‘result’]

return self.rpc(‘getblockcount’)return

return self.rpc(‘getwork’, data) return self.rpc(‘getwork’,

word = struct.unpack(‘@I’, in_buf[i:i+4])[0] struct.unpack(‘@I’, = word out_words.append(struct.pack(‘@I’, bytereverse(word))) out_words.append(struct.pack(‘@I’,

out_words.append(in_buf[i:i+4])

self.id = id self.max_nonce MAX_NONCE =

# decode work data hex string to binary static_data datastr.decode(‘hex’) = static_data bufreverse(static_data) =

# the first76b of 80b do not change blk_hdr static_data[:76] =

# decode 256-bit target value targetbin = targetstr.decode(‘hex’) targetbin = targetbin = targetbin[::-1] targetbin_str targetbin.encode(‘hex’) = target = long(targetbin_str, 16) long(targetbin_str, = target

# pre-hash first76b of block header static_hash hashlib.sha256() = static_hash.update(blk_hdr)

for nonce in xrange(self.max_nonce): in nonce for borders. Could digital currency help, ask well known of digital currencies, has had He and colleagues have been looking x & 0xffffffffL researchers at the Cambridge Centre for a chequered history. Issues with market at which markets and countries are the

def getblockcount(self):def

def getwork(self, data=None): getwork(self, def

return uint32(( |8) (((x) 24) &((x) 0x00ff0000) << << |

out_words = [] for i in range(0, len(in_buf), 4):

return ‘’.join(out_words) return

out_words = [] for i in range(0, len(in_buf), 4):

return ‘’.join(out_words) return

def __init__(self, id): Alternative Finance. volatility, security and regulation, together most likely to adopt cryptocurrencies targetstr): datastr, work(self, def

def uint32(x): def return

def bytereverse(x):

def bufreverse(in_buf):def

def wordreverse(in_buf):def with its association with online black

based on 40 different factors, ranging out_words.reverse()

class Miner:

‘Cryptocurrency’ is a form of finance markets like the now defunct Silk Road, from degree of technology penetration to that exists only online. Unlike national have created suspicion among citizens cross-border transactions fees to history currencies like the British pound, it isn’t and policymakers alike. of financial crises and inflation. The forged as coins or printed as notes and And yet, a recent headline in Wired results indicate that Sub-Saharan Africa, no central authority governs it. stated: “Thought bitcoin was dead? Latin America and former-Soviet Union Most often it’s associated with an 2016 is the year it goes big”; the reason, countries have the greatest potential for eclectic mix of individuals: gamers, they explained, is it can “provide a much adopting cryptocurrency. hackers and the tech-savvy; anti- cheaper and simpler way of moving money “Cryptocurrency is an immature authority libertarians who believe in from place to place, particularly when technology and is not without flaws. a global currency; gamblers happy to you’re a consumer or business moving it However, as with any new technology, speculate on ‘digital gold’; shady dealers, across international borders or a retailer it’s the applications that have ignited money launderers, users of adult content accepting payments from online buyers.” interest – it’s raised important questions services and the dark web; forward- Dr Garrick Hileman, who researches about how cross-border payments can thinking members of the financial sector. the impact of cryptocurrency on world be improved and, wider still, whether the But it has also been looked at as one finance at the Cambridge Centre for very special type of ledger system that possible solution to help a very different Alternative Finance, adds: “And it’s not underpins cryptocurrency can be used for demographic – the world’s poorest poor, just transfer fees. Conventional financial any number of other areas.” the so-called bottom billion. Many in this systems can suffer from slow transfer At the heart of bitcoin is the demographic lack bank accounts, have times, inconvenient hours for completion ‘blockchain’, a database that records difficulty in proving they own their own of transfers, limited access to transfers, all transactions chronologically through land or business, and frequently depend on sending or receiving money across borders to poorer relatives. In fact only one in five adults living on less than $2 per day has a bank account, and nearly 80% of poor adults, or two billion people, are excluded from the formal financial system. Meanwhile, the World Bank estimates that 75% of the

“More than $430 billion was sent in remittances to developing countries in 2015... The costs of

# byte-swap and dword-swap these transactions hit tatic_data) the poor the hardest”

bufreverse(s

de body”de return None return

return resp_obj[‘error’]return

print “JSON-RPC: no result in object” return None return

(((x) >> 8)(((x) & 0x0000ff00) >> 24) )) >> | ((x)

# encode 32-bit nonce value nonce_bin = struct.pack(“

# hash final 4b, the nonce value hash1_o = static_hash.copy() = hash1_o hash1_o.update(nonce_bin) hash1 = hash1_o.digest()

# sha256 hash of sha256 hash

if ‘error’ in resp_obj and resp_obj[‘error’] != None:

if ‘result’ not in resp_obj:

return resp_obj[‘result’]

return self.rpc(‘getblockcount’)return

return self.rpc(‘getwork’, data) return self.rpc(‘getwork’,

word = struct.unpack(‘@I’, in_buf[i:i+4])[0] struct.unpack(‘@I’, = word out_words.append(struct.pack(‘@I’, bytereverse(word))) out_words.append(struct.pack(‘@I’,

out_words.append(in_buf[i:i+4])

self.id = id self.max_nonce MAX_NONCE =

# decode work data hex string to binary static_data datastr.decode(‘hex’) = static_data =

# the first76b of 80b do not change blk_hdr static_data[:76] =

# decode 256-bit target value targetbin = targetstr.decode(‘hex’) targetbin = targetbin = targetbin[::-1] targetbin_str targetbin.encode(‘hex’) = target = long(targetbin_str, 16) long(targetbin_str, = target

# pre-hash first76b of block header static_hash hashlib.sha256() = static_hash.update(blk_hdr)

for nonce in xrange(self.max_nonce): in nonce for

def getblockcount(self):def

def getwork(self, data=None): getwork(self, def

return x & 0xffffffffL

return uint32(( |8) (((x) 24) &((x) 0x00ff0000) << << |

out_words = [] for i in range(0, len(in_buf), 4):

return ‘’.join(out_words) return

out_words = [] for i in range(0, len(in_buf), 4):

return ‘’.join(out_words) return

def __init__(self, id):

def work(self, datastr, targetstr): datastr, work(self, def

def uint32(x): def

def bytereverse(x):

def bufreverse(in_buf):def

def wordreverse(in_buf):def

out_words.reverse()

class Miner:

23 Research Horizons

Dr Garrick Hileman Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance Cambridge Judge Business School COULD CRYPTOCURRENCY... [email protected]

# byte-swap and dword-swap

= params =

obj[‘params’] = []

obj[‘params’]

{ ‘Authorization’ : self.authhdr, : ‘Authorization’ { ‘Content-type’ : ‘application/json’ }) ‘application/json’ : ‘Content-type’

print “JSON-RPC: no response” no “JSON-RPC: print return None return

print “JSON-RPC: cannot JSON-decode cannot body” “JSON-RPC: print return None return

return resp_obj[‘error’]return

print “JSON-RPC: no result in object” return None return

(((x) >> 8)(((x) & 0x0000ff00) >> 24) )) >> | ((x)

# encode 32-bit nonce value

else:

self.conn.request(‘POST’, ‘/’, json.dumps(obj), ‘/’, self.conn.request(‘POST’,

resp = self.conn.getresponse() = resp if resp is None:

body = resp.read() resp_obj = json.loads(body) = resp_obj if resp_obj is None:

if ‘error’ in resp_obj and resp_obj[‘error’] != None:

if ‘result’ not in resp_obj:

return resp_obj[‘result’]

return self.rpc(‘getblockcount’)return

return self.rpc(‘getwork’, data) return self.rpc(‘getwork’,

word = struct.unpack(‘@I’, in_buf[i:i+4])[0] struct.unpack(‘@I’, = word out_words.append(struct.pack(‘@I’, bytereverse(word))) out_words.append(struct.pack(‘@I’,

out_words.append(in_buf[i:i+4])

self.id = id self.max_nonce MAX_NONCE =

# decode work data hex string to binary static_data datastr.decode(‘hex’) = static_data bufreverse(static_data) =

# the first76b of 80b do not change blk_hdr static_data[:76] =

# decode 256-bit target value targetbin = targetstr.decode(‘hex’) targetbin = targetbin = targetbin[::-1] targetbin_str targetbin.encode(‘hex’) = target = long(targetbin_str, 16) long(targetbin_str, = target

# pre-hash first76b of block header static_hash hashlib.sha256() = static_hash.update(blk_hdr)

for nonce in xrange(self.max_nonce): in nonce for

x & 0xffffffffL

def getblockcount(self):def

def getwork(self, data=None): getwork(self, def

return uint32(( |8) (((x) 24) &((x) 0x00ff0000) << << |

out_words = [] for i in range(0, len(in_buf), 4):

return ‘’.join(out_words) return

out_words = [] for i in range(0, len(in_buf), 4):

return ‘’.join(out_words) return

def __init__(self, id):

def work(self, datastr, targetstr): datastr, work(self, def

def uint32(x): def return

def bytereverse(x):

def bufreverse(in_buf):def

def wordreverse(in_buf):def

out_words.reverse()

class Miner:

a unique series of numbers arranged This year, the Government Office of equipment and processes associated in ‘blocks’, which are then ‘chained’ to Science published a report in which Chief with existing systems.” the next block cryptographically, so as Scientific Advisor Professor Sir Mark To realise this potential, he says, there to be both secure and accurate. This Walport described distributed ledgers are problems that need to be solved linking of information makes them like a as “powerful, disruptive innovations that for customers in developing countries: financial ledger, but unlike centralised could transform the delivery of public and “people know they are being stung by banking systems, the blockchain is a private services” and “provide new ways transaction fees but are still reluctant to database that can be stored and shared of assuring ownership and provenance for switch for a wide range of reasons.” worldwide by anyone with a computing goods and intellectual property.” “It could even be that banks device and internet connection – hence One of the recommendations was for themselves adopt the technology, and yet its description as a distributed ledger the UK research community to ensure still enable its distributed peer-to-peer technology (DLT). that distributed ledgers are scalable and set-up, offering it as a separate service Part of the promise of cryptocurrency secure. The report added that the Alan to their traditional monetary services. In lies in the absence of a gatekeeper Turing Institute – a joint venture by the other words, customers may never know in its set-up, as Hileman explains: universities of Cambridge, Edinburgh, their transactions are happening on a “Transactions occur person to person, or Oxford, University College London, blockchain,” he adds. machine to machine, without the need for Warwick and the Engineering and Bitcoin has had a volatile exchange third party institutions – and that means Physical Sciences Research Council – rate and Hileman concedes that it’s lower or no transaction fees.” would help to support these endeavours. too early to know whether regulatory “For the seven years bitcoin has been “We probably have yet to see the measures will help shield customers operating, there hasn’t been a single full extent of future uses of distributed from this and other risks, or reduce minute of downtime, unlike traditional IT ledgers,” adds Hileman. “However, money laundering and financial crimes networks employed by banks and other our research has shown that cross- committed with bitcoin. In the meantime, institutions. This resiliency has people’s border transactions are viewed as one the Centre’s work on benchmarking attention,” says Hileman. “And currency of the most promising applications of cryptocurrency and blockchain activity is not the only thing that DLT can be used distributed ledger tech, due to the high will provide useful data for policymakers for. It can be used to exchange anything transaction fees, technical interoperability and other stakeholders keeping an eye on that has value – stocks, houses, airline issues, complex and conflicting the technology. miles, notarisations, votes.” regulatory frameworks, and legacy “More than $430 billion was sent in remittances to developing countries in 2015, mostly to India, but also China, Mexico and Nigeria,” says Hileman. “The costs of these transactions – which can average as high as 12% in Sub-Saharan Africa – hit the poor the hardest. Technological advances like cryptocurrency and distributed ledgers may offer a solution. “It would be surprising to me if in 30 years from now we aren’t looking back Words and saying yes this was a watershed

# byte-swap and dword-swap Louise Walsh moment for financial inclusion, and that tatic_data) ...HELP THE cryptocurrency and distributed ledgers played a significant role in opening up access to the financial system in ‘BOTTOM BILLION’? developing economies.”

de body”de return None return return resp_obj[‘error’]return print “JSON-RPC: no result in object” return None return

(((x) >> 8)(((x) & 0x0000ff00) >> 24) )) >> | ((x)

# encode 32-bit nonce value nonce_bin = struct.pack(“

# hash final 4b, the nonce value hash1_o = static_hash.copy() = hash1_o hash1_o.update(nonce_bin) hash1 = hash1_o.digest()

# sha256 hash of sha256 hash

if ‘error’ in resp_obj and resp_obj[‘error’] != None: if ‘result’ not in resp_obj:

return resp_obj[‘result’] return self.rpc(‘getblockcount’)return return self.rpc(‘getwork’, data) return self.rpc(‘getwork’,

word = struct.unpack(‘@I’, in_buf[i:i+4])[0] struct.unpack(‘@I’, = word out_words.append(struct.pack(‘@I’, bytereverse(word))) out_words.append(struct.pack(‘@I’,

out_words.append(in_buf[i:i+4])

self.id = id self.max_nonce MAX_NONCE =

# decode work data hex string to binary static_data datastr.decode(‘hex’) = static_data = bufreverse(s

# the first76b of 80b do not change blk_hdr static_data[:76] =

# decode 256-bit target value targetbin = targetstr.decode(‘hex’) targetbin = targetbin = targetbin[::-1] targetbin_str targetbin.encode(‘hex’) = target = long(targetbin_str, 16) long(targetbin_str, = target

# pre-hash first76b of block header static_hash hashlib.sha256() = static_hash.update(blk_hdr) for nonce in xrange(self.max_nonce): in nonce for

def getblockcount(self):def def getwork(self, data=None): getwork(self, def

return x & 0xffffffffL return uint32(( |8) (((x) 24) &((x) 0x00ff0000) << << |

out_words = [] for i in range(0, len(in_buf), 4): return ‘’.join(out_words) return out_words = [] for i in range(0, len(in_buf), 4): return ‘’.join(out_words) return def __init__(self, id):

def work(self, datastr, targetstr): datastr, work(self, def

def uint32(x): def

def bytereverse(x):

def bufreverse(in_buf):def

def wordreverse(in_buf):def

out_words.reverse()

class Miner:

24 Spotlight: Digital society The (conspiracy) theory of everything

lvis is alive, the Moon landings The project brings together historians, were faked and members of political theorists, philosophers, E the British Royal Family are anthropologists and internet engineers shapeshifting lizards. as it seeks to understand what additional factors must be at work for conspiracy Not only that: 9/11 was an inside job, theories to enjoy such prevalence in the governments are deliberately concealing 21st century. evidence of alien contact, and we are all Professor John Naughton who, being controlled by a sinister, shadowy along with Professor Sir Richard Evans cartel of political, financial and media and Professor David Runciman, is one elites who together form a New World of the three project directors, explains: Order. “Studying conspiracy theories provides As a global population we are awash opportunities for understanding how with conspiracy theories. They have people make sense of the world and how permeated every major event, across societies function, as well as calling into every level of society; from the French question our basic trust in democratic Revolution to the War on Terror. In doing societies. so, they have attracted devotees in “Our project examines how their millions; from lone survivalists to conspiracies and conspiracy theorising presidential nominees such as Donald have changed over the centuries and Trump – who claimed Ted Cruz’s father what, if any, is the relationship between had links to Lee Harvey Oswald and, by them? Have conspiracy theories inference, to the murder of President appeared at particular moments in John F. Kennedy. history, and why? But what effects do conspiracy “We wanted to counter the standard theories really have on the public as academic narrative that conspiracy we go about our day-to-day lives? Are theories are beneath contempt. We were they merely harmless flights of fancy anxious to undertake a natural history propagated by those existing on the of theorising, to study it seriously from a margins of society, or is their reach 21st-century context.” altogether more sinister? Do runaway Despite the onset of the digital age, conspiracy theories influence politicians, Naughton and his colleagues do not decision-makers and, by extension, the believe that the internet has necessarily public at large? And what effect has increased the influence of conspiracy the advent of the internet and mass, theories on society as a whole. Indeed, instant communication across social research suggests that although the media platforms had on the spread of spread of conspiracy theories is often conspiracy theories around the world? instantaneous in the digital world, so too Since 2013, a team of Cambridge is the evidence to debunk them. researchers and visiting fellows has been Likewise, the team’s work so far examining the theories and beliefs about suggests that online, as in life, we largely conspiracies that have become such surround ourselves with people of an enduring feature of modern society. like-minded views and opinions, Conspiracy and Democracy: History, effectively partitioning ourselves from a Political Theory and Internet Research diversity of world views. is a five-year, interdisciplinary research “The internet doesn’t make conspiracy project based at CRASSH (Centre for theories more persuasive, it actually Research in the Arts, Social Sciences seems to compartmentalise people,” and Humanities) and funded by the adds Naughton. “We more efficiently Leverhulme Trust. come into contact with those who hold 25 Research Horizons

“The internet doesn’t make conspiracy theories more persuasive, it actually seems to compartmentalise people”

similar views, but we also mostly end up “A lot remains to be done in working in echo chambers. That’s the researching the history, structure and way the internet works at the moment – dynamics of conspiracy theories, their especially in social media: you end up relationships with real conspiracies, somewhere where everyone has the same and the changes they have undergone views. through time,” adds Evans. “You might “The effect is a more concentrated think that conspiracy theories cause grouping of opinions, and that’s the same anxiety and depression among ordinary for everything else, not just conspiracy people, and undermine trust in our theories. I follow 800 people on Twitter. political institutions and the people who Not one of them celebrated Brexit. I was run them, but there are plenty of other in an echo chamber.” reasons for this lack of trust apart from Dr Alfred Moore, a postdoctoral conspiracy theories. researcher on the project, adds: “The “The debate goes on, but it’s not a question of the effect of the internet is case of conspiracy theories threatening a really interesting one. How far can democracies. By themselves, such the emergence and success of today’s theories may reinforce political suspicion populist movements be explained in and prejudice but they’re not the origin terms of technological changes and of it. On the whole, I think it’s fair to especially social media? My first instinct conclude that the scale of the threat is is to say a little bit, but probably not pretty limited. much. “Some varieties, like antisemitism, “Technologies have made it less can cause huge damage, but others are costly to communicate, which means pretty harmless. Does it really matter that it’s easier to find, talk to and organise some people think the moon landings supporters without the financial and were faked? In the end, few people organisational resources of political believe we are ruled by alien lizards.” parties. Both Corbyn and Trump make heavy use of social media as www.conspiracyanddemocracy.org an alternative to a supposedly biased ‘mainstream’ media and the influence of Professor Sir Richard Evans their parties. It also demonstrates how Dr Alfred Moore the internet can promote polarisation Professor John Naughton by making it easy for people to find Professor David Runciman information they agree with and to filter Centre for Research in the out everything else.” Arts, Social Sciences For those reasons, Naughton and and Humanities Moore believe that some of the most [email protected] famous conspiracy theories – such as David Icke’s theories about shapeshifting reptiles or feverish claims about the death Words of Princess Diana – are not particularly Stuart Roberts dangerous as they don’t appear to generate tangible actions or outcomes in the real world. In fact, the Conspiracy and Democracy team question whether these silos effectively disable the capacity for many conspiracy theories to take a firm hold in the public consciousness or threaten our democratic processes. Credit: Cliff on Flickr 1144 3555 1188 9816 8991 3567 4419 7956 5031 7917 5468 8691 4494 4272 9897 8186 2112 1618 9185 8462 0924 9865 5212 0432 2729 0733 4554 3009 4277 7208 6981 1954 8031 1838 6175 7765 7888 6372 4439 5445 1172 4697 7868 2458 9742 3607 3252 5899 1186 1744 2301 8998 261118 6812 7058 6045 7207 8176 5300 1074Spotlight: 5120 Digital0199 society8602 6674 0571 9067 9782 4586 5306 3406 9719 0982 9139 1774 4321 1078 5967 4152 1490 5582 7168 2108 6622 7703 7587 4659 4989 9490 6563 0309 5032 4534 0707 1068 6498 4713 1189 1481 4008 9061 8180 0341 6163 0148 3552 5451 7792 8364 2926 2517 6116 6335 7961 7364 1943 6700 0249 8025 7944 6941 3360 6097 5495 5338 2393 8375 8297 0536 8039 9628 8212 5130 3941 5465 3968 3303 2783 2419 4598 5872 9049 6668 5219 0391 2444 8056 4985 1144 7536 2547 7633 4642 7280 1502 5940 7043 6107 6939 6815 6904 6315 7201 4301 8719 3555 6465 3139 0343 3685 3260 6152 2602 0390 2923 5683 9346 6363 7160 1504 1746 7936 5515 8048 0130 9819 1190 8213 6436 6262 7266 6265 3569 5744 7592 3863 0663 0188 2033 7804 6835 1793 2008 6595 8904 7003 6175 6193 6607 4251 2317 4395 4562 5991 4255 1289 0854 9048 7232 6352 5724 6342 7491 0502 3395 2069 9284 4329 8000 8147 4362 1738 3055 9077 7698 2254 6354 5593 3272 2469 0539 9163 5574 8213 3825 1021 5815 7804 2845 0439 8029 2955 7630 1700 9460 2963 5122 5361 6673 4340 5843 4117 7098 7204 8378 5697 9699 8870 8227 8164 7912 5108 0763 6778 0255 4897 4386 7904 8575 7129 2488 9051 4650 3059 5158 3464 8973 4092 6183 5459 2855 1129 4847 0951 5102 6735 1744 1775 0228 2212 2214 9649 8818 0042 2609 6050 8275 2018 3360 5998 3054 2498 9971 7430 4962 3961 8480 1948 4186 6853 8785 6006 1645 1140 3468 6671 8416 7242 5748 2473 5874 8274 0715 6265 0644 5924 8075 9815 9258 5318 1124 4478 2111 3767 1088 3479 2392 8316 1308 7879 1618 1461 RICKING PEOPLE INTO Words 7771 4710 9578 5034 6554 0597 1626 0731 0327 8190 1520 5555 4955 HANDING OVER SENSITIVE Sarah Collins 6778 6471 5099 2221 8973 5517 3780 8459 9208 6878 8607 3915 8236 TINFORMATION SUCH AS 6727 7267 3199 9283 5954 0404 3539 2549 2582 7316 3562 3061 6677 CREDIT CARD DETAILS – 0635 1316 3620 4152 4085 3042 8767 6253 4932 7026 8240 7935 6304 KNOWN AS ‘PHISHING’ – IS 2641 3440 9092 0013 9788 3279 0807 1245 7335 6565 0630 6348 9433 ONE OF THE WAYS CRIMINALS 4028 7621 4043 7316 5099 5533 3539 4484 8036 2219 4074 0118 6212 Research Council. Their1786 aim 7493 is to 1019 help 7810 6834 7707 1350 2300 2698 3509 5728 8719 6905 SCAM PEOPLE ONLINE. governments, businesses8400 and1419 ordinary 1323 5675 2908 8717 9073 5822 0875 9947 0556 3661 0126 users to construct better5076 defences.7156 3392 8062 3759 8725 6946 6490 2367 6645 0304 4380 4369 We’ve all received the emails, hundreds, To understand how6221 the 2768 criminals 4316 0806 2132the framework 9980 3450 we’ve 8716 set 8981 up will 2453 create 4129 3037 3017 maybe thousands of them. Warnings operate, researchers9445 use machine4651 6329 6180 6420a step 7940 change 5960 in the5356 amount 6883 of9727 work 0455 in 7602 4741 6614 7929 2510 4981 1654 7696 1056 6490 1470 3476 6249 3694 0319 learning and other techniques to cybercrime that uses real data. More that our bank account will be closed 8055 1273 0156 4748 3079 3498 2931 1847 7967 7147 0111 1827 0129 tomorrow, and we’ve only got to click recognise bad websites,6370 understand 7306 8819 3482 6221people 3974 will be5670 able 3451 to do 4409 research, 1715 and8289 0646 4469 a link and send credit card information what kinds of brands2562 tend 0103to be attacked9097 8158 2731by allowing 0509 6201others 8125 to work 4521 on 3911the same 8551 2551 7378 to stop it from happening. Promises of and how often, determine2349 how4384 many 0610 7980 4373datasets 4484 more 8557 people 4705 will 2686 be able1725 to 2317 7084 4514 untold riches, and it will only cost a tiny criminals are behind 9511an attack 9104 by 7352 looking 6142 7994do reproducible 7640 4317 research 8452 2542 and 2759compare 4605 6379 4608 fee to access them. Stories of people at the pattern of the 8125creation 4085 of fake7321 sites 7971 5200techniques, 9977 2790which 4073 is done 3495 extremely 4055 4213 3463 1592 9104 5170 9038 4699 9053 9300 7561 9310 6103 2418 0193 3191 6795 in desperate circumstances, who only and how effective the7662 various 7341 defence 3558 0609 7947rarely 3794at the 0479 moment.” 0738 4559 0517 4399 2728 6795 need some kind soul to go to the nearest systems are at getting6755 them 0288 taken 3794 down. 3538 7477One 2247 of the0536 team 6504 helping 1456 to 7614 make 7709 0639 6589 Western Union and send a money transfer One way in which6144 studying 6120 cybercrime 5836 5122 5457this work 7850 is 4670Dr Julia 9038 Powles, 4980 a 3857legal 7453 1347 1199 to save them. differs from many other2506 areas 7488 of2960 research 1957 0852researcher 9215 cross-appointed7647 1479 6213 between 3829 8405 0469 8040 Most of us think we’re smarter than is that the datasets are4736 difficult 2881 2851to come 4285 9204the Computer 9476 7209 Laboratory 1099 8084 and 0748Faculty 9411 of 1908 3651 7682 4200 0633 1313 9533 8148 3989 9584 5709 0748 0834 4783 2172 these scams. Most of us think that we by. Most belong to private companies, Law. “There are several hurdles to data 2626 4594 9176 8856 8284 7035 8597 0352 0323 5881 7897 3441 5641 could probably con the con artist if we and researchers need to work hard to sharing,” says Powles. “Part of my job is 1 2373 9053 8993 4765 1474 2880 3790 1772 1449 9415 9676 9194 tried. But we would be wrong. negotiate access. This9648 is generally3384 3360 done 2923 2328to identify 2386 which5083 ones3921 are 8966 legitimate 9897 5655 – for 1135 0475 Across the world, cybercrime is through nondisclosure8355 agreements, 1266 0040 4701 6788example, 7132 when 2615 there 3797 are 4270 genuine 4927 data 4594 6625 5597 booming. When the UK government even if the data is out1144 of date. 3555 And 1188 once 9816 8991protection 3567 and4419 privacy 7956 concerns,5031 7917 or 5468risks 8691 4494 included cybercrime in the national crime researchers complete4272 their 9897 work, 8186 they 2112 1618to commercial 9185 8462 interests 0924 9865– and 5212to work 0432 2729 0733 statistics for the first time in 2015, it cannot make the data4554 public, 3009 since 4277 it 7208 6981out when 1954 we 8031 are just1838 dealing 6175 with7765 paper 7888 6372 4439 doubled the crime rate overnight. Millions would reduce the competitive5445 1172 advantage 4697 7868 2458tigers. 9742 We are3607 striving 3252 to 5899 be as 1186 clear, 1744 2301 8998 1118 6812 7058 6045 7207 8176 5300 1074 5120 0199 8602 6674 0571 of people worldwide are victimised by of corporate players,9067 and it9782 may also4586 5306 3406principled 9719 and0982 creative 9139 as1774 possible 4321 in1078 5967 4152 online scams, whether it’s blocking make it possible for criminals1490 5582 to reverse7168 2108 6622ratcheting 7703 up7587 research 4659 in4989 this essential9490 6563 0309 5032 access to a website, stealing personal engineer what was detected4534 0707 (and 1068 what 6498 4713field.” 1189 1481 4008 9061 8180 0341 6163 0148 or credit card information, or attempting wasn’t) and stay one3552 step ahead5451 7792of law 8364 2926Better 2517 research 6116 6335 will make7961 for7364 better 1943 6700 0249 to extort money by remotely holding the enforcement. 8025 7944 6941 3360 6097defences 5495 for 5338 governments, 2393 8375 businesses 8297 0536 8039 9628 8212 5130 3941 5465 3968 3303 2783 2419 4598 5872 9049 6668 5219 and ordinary users. Today, there are contents of a personal computer hostage. One of the goals 0391of the 2444Cambridge 8056 4985 1144 7536 2547 7633 4642 7280 1502 5940 7043 “Since 2005, the police have largely Cybercrime Centre is6107 to make 6939 it easier6815 6904 6315a lot more7201 tools4301 to 8719 help users3555 defend6465 3139 0343 3685 ignored cybercrime,” says Professor for cybercrime researchers3260 6152 from 2602around 0390 2923themselves 5683 9346against 6363 cybercrime 7160 1504 – 1746 7936 5515 Ross Anderson of Cambridge’s Computer the world to get access8048 to 0130data and9819 share 1190 8213browsers 6436 are 6262 getting 7266 better 6265 at 3569recognising 5744 7592 3863 Laboratory. “Reported crime fell by as their results with colleagues.0663 0188 2033 7804 6835bad URLs,1793 for2008 example 6595 –8904 but, at7003 the 6175same 6193 6607 much as a half in some categories. Yet, To open up cybercrime4251 2317 research 4395 to 4562 5991time, criminals4255 1289 are 0854 becoming 9048 ever7232 more 6352 5724 6342 7491 0502 3395 2069 9284 4329 8000 8147 4362 1738 3055 9077 7698 now that online and electronic fraud are colleagues across the2254 globe, 6354 the 5593 team 3272 2469effective, 0539 and9163 more 5574 and 8213 more 3825 people 1021 are 5815 7804 included, the number of reported crimes will leverage their existing2845 relationships0439 8029 2955 7630getting 1700 caught 9460 in their2963 traps. 5122 5361 6673 4340 5843 has more than doubled. Crime was not to collect and store cybercrime4117 7098 datasets,7204 8378 5697“You 9699 don’t 8870 actually 8227 have8164 to 7912 be as 5108 0763 6778 falling; it was just moving online.” and then any bona fide0255 researcher 4897 4386 can 7904 8575clever 7129 as people 2488 once9051 thought 4650 3059 in order 5158 to 3464 8973 In 2015, computer scientists, sign a licence with the4092 Centre 6183 and 5459 get 2855 1129fool a 4847user,” 0951 says Clayton5102 6735 when 1744 explaining 1775 0228 2212 2214 9649 8818 0042 2609 6050 8275 2018 3360 5998 3054 2498 9971 criminologists and legal academics to work without all the complexity of how fake bank websites are used to 7430 4962 3961 8480 1948 4186 6853 8785 6006 1645 1140 3468 6671 joined forces to form the Cambridge identifying and approaching8416 7242 the data5748 2473 5874‘phish’ 8274 for user0715 credentials. 6265 0644 “It 5924 used 8075to be 9815 9258 Cybercrime Centre, with funding from holders themselves. 5318 1124 4478 2111 3767that cybercriminals1088 3479 2392 would 8316 register 1308 a 7879new 1618 1461 the Engineering and Physical Sciences “Right now, getting7771 access 4710 to 9578 data 5034 6554domain 0597 name, 1626 like 0731 Barclays 0327 with 8190 two 1520 Ls, 5555 4955 in this area is incredibly6778 complicated,” 6471 5099 2221 8973for instance. 5517 3780 But they8459 generally 9208 6878 don’t 8607 do 3915 8236 says Dr Richard Clayton6727 of 7267 Cambridge’s 3199 9283 5954 0404 3539 2549 2582 7316 3562 3061 6677 0635 1316 3620 4152 4085 3042 8767 6253 4932 7026 8240 7935 6304 Computer Laboratory,2641 who 3440 is also 9092 0013 9788 3279 0807 1245 7335 6565 0630 6348 9433 Director of the Centre.4028 “But 7621 we think4043 7316 5099 5533 3539 4484 8036 2219 4074 0118 6212 1786 7493 1019 7810 6834 7707 1350 2300 2698 3509 5728 8719 6905 8400 1419 1323 5675 2908 8717 9073 5822 0875 9947 0556 3661 0126 5076 7156 3392 8062 3759 8725 6946 6490 2367 6645 0304 4380 4369 6221 2768 4316 0806 2132 9980 3450 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7771 4710 9578 5034 6554 0597 1626 0731 0327 8190 1520 5555 4955 3260 6152 2602 0390 2923 5683 9346 6363 7160 1504 1746 7936 5515 6778 6471 5099 2221 8973 5517 3780 8459 9208 6878 8607 3915 8236 that for phishing attacks anymore, as end 6727 7267 3199 9283 5954 0404 3539 2549 2582 7316 3562 3061 6677 users aren’t looking8048 at the address 0130 bar, 9819 1190 8213 6436 6262 7266 6265 3569 5744 7592 3863 0635 1316 3620 4152 4085 3042 8767 6253 4932 7026 8240 7935 6304 they’re looking at whether0663 the page0188 looks 2033 7804 6835 1793 2008 6595 8904 7003 6175 6193 6607 2641 3440 9092 0013 9788 3279 0807 1245 7335 6565 0630 6348 9433 right, whether the logos look right.” 4028 7621 4043 7316 5099 5533 3539 4484 8036 2219 4074 0118 6212 1786 7493 1019 7810 6834 7707 1350 2300 2698 3509 5728 8719 6905 The Centre is also4251 looking at2317 issues 4395 4562 5991 4255 1289 0854 9048 7232 6352 5724 6342 8400 1419 1323 5675 2908 8717 9073 5822 0875 9947 0556 3661 0126 around what motivates7491 someone 0502 to 3395 2069 9284 4329 8000 8147 4362 1738 3055 9077 7698 5076 7156 3392 8062 3759 8725 6946 6490 2367 6645 0304 4380 4369 commit cybercrime, and what makes 6221 2768 4316 0806 2132 9980 3450 8716 8981 2453 4129 3037 3017 them stop. 2254 6354 5593is the crime3272 of this 2469century, a challenge0539 9163 5574 8213 3825 1021 5815 7804 9445 4651 6329 6180 6420 7940 5960 5356 6883 9727 0455 7602 4741 According to Dr Alice Hutchings, a we are just beginning to understand and 6614 7929 2510 4981 1654 7696 1056 6490 1470 3476 6249 3694 0319 2845 0439 8029 2955 7630 1700 9460 2963 5122 5361 6673 4340 5843 challenge with science.” 8055 1273 0156 4748 3079 3498 2931 1847 7967 7147 0111 1827 0129 criminologist specialising in cybercrime, 6370 7306 8819 3482 6221 3974 5670 3451 4409 1715 8289 0646 4469 cybercriminals tend4117 to fall into 7098two 7204“We’re 8378 extremely 5697 grateful to9699 the 8870 8227 8164 7912 5108 0763 6778 2562 0103 9097 8158 2731 0509 6201 8125 4521 3911 8551 2551 7378 main categories. The0255 first category 4897 is 4386people giving7904 us this8575 data, who 7129 are doing 2488 9051 4650 3059 5158 3464 8973 2349 4384 0610 7980 4373 4484 8557 4705 2686 1725 2317 7084 4514 the opportunistic offender, who may be it because they think academic research 9511 9104 7352 6142 7994 7640 4317 8452 2542 2759 4605 6379 4608 motivated by a major4092 strain in their6183 lives, 5459will make 2855 a difference,” 1129 says Clayton4847. 0951 5102 6735 1744 1775 0228 2212 8125 4085 7321 7971 5200 9977 2790 4073 3495 4055 4213 3463 1592 such as financial pressures or problems “Our key contribution is realising that 9104 5170 9038 4699 9053 9300 7561 9310 6103 2418 0193 3191 6795 2214 9649 8818 0042 2609 6050 8275 2018 3360 5998 3054 2498 9971 7662 7341 3558 0609 7947 3794 0479 0738 4559 0517 4399 2728 6795 with gambling or addiction, and who uses there was a roadblock in terms of being 6755 0288 3794 3538 7477 2247 0536 6504 1456 7614 7709 0639 6589 cybercrime as a way7430 to meet their4962 goals. 3961able to distribute8480 the1948 data. It’s 4186not that 6853 8785 6006 1645 1140 3468 6671 6144 6120 5836 5122 5457 7850 4670 9038 4980 3857 7453 1347 1199 The second type of8416 offender typically7242 5748other people2473 couldn’t 5874 get the data8274 before, 0715 6265 0644 5924 8075 9815 9258 2506 7488 2960 1957 0852 9215 7647 1479 6213 3829 8405 0469 8040 comes from a more stable background, but it was very time-consuming, so only 4736 2881 2851 4285 9204 9476 7209 1099 8084 0748 9411 1908 3651 and is gradually exposed5318 to techniques1124 4478a limited 2111 number of3767 people were 1088 doing 3479 2392 8316 1308 7879 1618 1461 7682 4200 0633 1313 9533 8148 3989 9584 5709 0748 0834 4783 2172 for committing cybercrime through research in this area – we want to change 2626 4594 9176 8856 8284 7035 8597 0352 0323 5881 7897 3441 5641 7771 4710 9578 5034 6554 0597 1626 0731 0327 8190 1520 5555 4955 associations with others.6778 6471 5099that.” 2221 8973 5517 3780 8459 9208 6878 8607 3915 8236 9648 3384 3360 2923 2328 2386 5083 3921 8966 9897 5655 1135 0475 Both groups will usually keep “Our Cybercrime Centre will not only 8355 1266 0040 4701 6788 7132 2615 3797 4270 4927 4594 6625 5597 offending as long as6727 cybercrime 7267 meets 3199provide 9283detailed technical5954 information 0404 3539 2549 2582 7316 3562 3061 6677 1144 3555 1188 9816 8991 3567 4419 7956 5031 7917 5468 8691 4494 their particular needs, whether it’s about what’s going on, so that firms 4272 9897 8186 2112 1618 9185 8462 0924 9865 5212 0432 2729 0733 financial gratification,0635 or supporting 1316 a 3620can construct 4152 better 4085 defences,” 3042 says 8767 6253 4932 7026 8240 7935 6304 4554 3009 4277 7208 6981 1954 8031 1838 6175 7765 7888 6372 4439 drug habit, or giving2641 them recognition 3440 9092Anderson. 0013 “It will also9788 provide 3279strategic 0807 1245 7335 6565 0630 6348 9433 5445 1172 4697 7868 2458 9742 3607 3252 5899 1186 1744 2301 8998 within their community. What often makes information, as a basis for making better 1118 6812 7058 6045 7207 8176 5300 1074 5120 0199 8602 6674 0571 4028 7621 4043 7316 5099 5533 3539 4484 8036 2219 4074 0118 6212 9067 9782 4586 5306 3406 9719 0982 9139 1774 4321 1078 5967 4152 offenders stop is the point at which the policy.” 1490 5582 7168 2108 6622 7703 7587 4659 4989 9490 6563 0309 5032 costs of continuing 1786outweigh the7493 benefits: 1019 7810 6834 7707 1350 2300 2698 3509 5728 8719 6905 4534 0707 1068 6498 4713 1189 1481 4008 9061 8180 0341 6163 0148 for instance, when it8400 takes a toll1419 on their 1323www.cambridgecybercrime.uk 5675 2908 8717 9073 5822 0875 9947 0556 3661 0126 3552 5451 7792 8364 2926 2517 6116 6335 7961 7364 1943 6700 0249 employment, other outside interests or 8025 7944 6941 3360 6097 5495 5338 2393 8375 8297 0536 8039 9628 personal relationships.5076 7156 3392 8062 3759 8725 6946 6490 2367 6645 0304 4380 4369 8212 5130 3941 5465 3968 3303 2783 2419 4598 5872 9049 6668 5219 “Most offenders never get caught, Professor Ross Anderson 0391 2444 8056 4985 1144 7536 2547 7633 4642 7280 1502 5940 7043 6221 2768 4316 0806 2132 9980 3450 8716 8981 2453 4129 3037 3017 6107 6939 6815 6904 6315 7201 4301 8719 3555 6465 3139 0343 3685 so there’s no reason to think that they Computer Laboratory 3260 6152 2602 0390 2923 5683 9346 6363 7160 1504 1746 7936 5515 won’t go back to cybercrime,”9445 4651says 6329 [email protected] 6180 6420 7940 5960 5356 6883 9727 0455 7602 4741 8048 0130 9819 1190 8213 6436 6262 7266 6265 3569 5744 7592 3863 Hutchings. “They can6614 always start7929 again if2510 4981 1654 7696 1056 6490 1470 3476 6249 3694 0319 0663 0188 2033 7804 6835 1793 2008 6595 8904 7003 6175 6193 6607 circumstances in their lives change. Dr Richard Clayton 4251 2317 4395 4562 5991 4255 1289 0854 9048 7232 6352 5724 6342 “There is so much8055 cybercrime 1273 0156 Computer 4748 Laboratory 3079 3498 2931 1847 7967 7147 0111 1827 0129 7491 0502 3395 2069 9284 4329 8000 8147 4362 1738 3055 9077 7698 2254 6354 5593 3272 2469 0539 9163 5574 8213 3825 1021 5815 7804 happening out there.6370 You can educate7306 8819 [email protected] 3482 6221 3974 5670 3451 4409 1715 8289 0646 4469 2845 0439 8029 2955 7630 1700 9460 2963 5122 5361 6673 4340 5843 potential victims, but there will always 4117 7098 7204 8378 5697 9699 8870 8227 8164 7912 5108 0763 6778 be other potential victims,2562 and 0103new 9097 Dr 8158 Alice Hutchings 2731 0509 6201 8125 4521 3911 8551 2551 7378 0255 4897 4386 7904 8575 7129 2488 9051 4650 3059 5158 3464 8973 ways that criminals 2349can come up4384 with to 0610 Computer 7980 Laboratory 4373 4484 8557 4705 2686 1725 2317 7084 4514 4092 6183 5459 2855 1129 4847 0951 5102 6735 1744 1775 0228 2212 social engineer somebody’s details, for [email protected] 2214 9649 8818 0042 2609 6050 8275 2018 3360 5998 3054 2498 9971 example. Proactive 9511prevention 9104against 7352 6142 7994 7640 4317 8452 2542 2759 4605 6379 4608 7430 4962 3961 8480 1948 4186 6853 8785 6006 1645 1140 3468 6671 Dr Julia Powles 8416 7242 5748 2473 5874 8274 0715 6265 0644 5924 8075 9815 9258 potential offenders8125 is a good 4085place to 7321 7971 5200 9977 2790 4073 3495 4055 4213 3463 1592 5318 1124 4478 2111 3767 1088 3479 2392 8316 1308 7879 1618 1461 start.” Faculty of Law 7771 4710 9578 5034 6554 0597 1626 0731 0327 8190 1520 5555 4955 Criminologist Professor9104 Lawrence 5170 9038 [email protected] 4699 9053 9300 7561 9310 6103 2418 0193 3191 6795 6778 6471 5099 2221 8973 5517 3780 8459 9208 6878 8607 3915 8236 Sherman believes the7662 collaboration 7341 3558 0609 7947 3794 0479 0738 4559 0517 4399 2728 6795 6727 7267 3199 9283 5954 0404 3539 2549 2582 7316 3562 3061 6677 between security engineering and Professor Lawrence Sherman 0635 1316 3620 4152 4085 3042 8767 6253 4932 7026 8240 7935 6304 6755 0288 3794 3538 7477 2247 0536 6504 1456 7614 7709 0639 6589 2641 3440 9092 0013 9788 3279 0807 1245 7335 6565 0630 6348 9433 criminology is long overdue, both at Institute of Criminology 4028 7621 4043 7316 5099 5533 3539 4484 8036 2219 4074 0118 6212 Cambridge and globally:6144 “Cybercrime 6120 5836 [email protected] 5122 5457 7850 4670 9038 4980 3857 7453 1347 1199 1786 7493 1019 7810 6834 7707 1350 2300 2698 3509 5728 8719 6905 8400 1419 1323 5675 2908 8717 9073 5822 0875 9947 0556 3661 0126 2506 7488 2960 1957 0852 9215 7647 1479 6213 3829 8405 0469 8040 5076 7156 3392 8062 3759 8725 6946 6490 2367 6645 0304 4380 4369 6221 2768 4316 0806 2132 9980 3450 8716 8981 2453 4129 3037 3017 4736 2881 2851 4285 9204 9476 7209 1099 8084 0748 9411 1908 3651 9445 4651 6329 6180 6420 7940 5960 5356 6883 9727 0455 7602 4741 7682 4200 0633 1313 9533 8148 3989 9584 5709 0748 0834 4783 2172 6614 7929 2510 4981 1654 7696 1056 6490 1470 3476 6249 3694 0319 28 Spotlight: Digital society

COMPUTER SAYS YES (BUT IS IT RIGHT?)

omputers that learn for themselves are with us now. As C they become more common in ‘high-stakes’ applications like robotic surgery, terrorism detection and driverless cars, researchers ask what can be done to make sure we can trust them.

There would always be a first death in a driverless car and it happened in May 2016. Joshua Brown had engaged the autopilot system in his Tesla when a tractor-trailor drove across the road in front of him. It seems that neither he nor the sensors in the autopilot noticed the white-sided truck against a brightly lit sky, with tragic results. Of course many people die in car crashes every day – in the USA there is one fatality every 94 million miles, and according to Tesla this was the first known fatality in over 130 million miles of driving with activated autopilot. In fact, given that most road fatalities are the result of human error, it has been said that autonomous cars should make travelling safer. Even so, the tragedy raised a pertinent question: how much do we understand – and trust – the computers in an autonomous vehicle? Or, in fact, in any machine that has been taught to carry out an activity that a human would do? We are now in the era of machine learning. Machines can be trained to recognise certain patterns in their environment and to respond appropriately. It happens every time your digital camera detects a face and throws a box around it to focus, or the personal assistant on your smartphone answers a question, or the adverts match your interests when you search online. Machine learning is a way to program computers to learn from experience and improve their performance in a way that resembles how humans and animals learn tasks. As machine learning techniques Credit: All images, Alex Kendall become more common in everything from finance to healthcare, the issue of Images Sky Bike Tree Vehicle trust is becoming increasingly important, Machines like SegNet can says Zoubin Ghahramani, Professor now be taught to identify Building Road Sign Symbol Pedestrian of Information Engineering in the components of a road Pole Pavement Fence Road Marking Department of Engineering. scene in real time 29 Research Horizons

Faced with a life or death decision, pathways that are easy for humans to Smartphone-based system that teaches would a driverless car decide to hit understand.” His research aims both at machines to see pedestrians, or avoid them and risk making these pathways more transparent, the lives of its occupants? Providing a sometimes through visualisation, and at medical diagnosis, could a machine be looking at what happens when systems Machine learning techniques have been wildly inaccurate because it has based are used in real-world scenarios that used to teach a smartphone or camera its opinion on a too-small sample size? extend beyond their training environments to recognise their surroundings. In making financial transactions, should – an increasingly common occurrence. SegNet is a technology that can a computer explain how robust is its “We would like AI systems to monitor identify the components of a road scene assessment of the volatility of the stock their situation dynamically, detect in real time and could be used for the markets? whether there has been a change in their development of driverless cars and “Machines can now achieve near- environment and – if they can no longer autonomous robotics. human abilities at many cognitive tasks work reliably – then provide an alert It can take an image of a street scene even if confronted with a situation they and perhaps shift to a safety mode.” it hasn’t seen before and classify it in have never seen before, or an incomplete A driverless car, for instance, might real time, sorting objects into 12 different set of data,” says Ghahramani. “But what decide that a foggy night in heavy traffic categories – including roads, street signs, is going on inside the ‘black box’? If the requires a human driver to take control. pedestrians, buildings and cyclists. processes by which decisions were being Weller’s theme of trust and It was ‘taught by example’ by a group made were more transparent, then trust transparency forms just one of the of Cambridge undergraduate students, would be less of an issue.” projects at the newly launched £10 million who manually labelled every pixel in each His team builds the algorithms that Leverhulme Centre for the Future of of 5,000 images. Once the labelling was lie at the heart of these technologies Intelligence. Ghahramani, who is Deputy (the “invisible bit” as he refers to it). Director of the Centre, explains: “It’s Trust and transparency are important important to understand how developing “the more effective themes in their work: “We really view technologies can help rather than the whole mathematics of machine replace humans. Over the coming years, and accurate we learning as sitting inside a framework philosophers, social scientists, cognitive of understanding uncertainty. Before scientists and computer scientists will can make these you see data – whether you are a baby help guide the future of the technology technologies, learning a language or a scientist and study its implications – both the analysing some data – you start with a lot concerns and the benefits to society.” the closer we are of uncertainty and then as you have more He describes the excitement felt and more data you have more and more across the machine learning field: “It’s to driverless cars” certainty. exploding in importance. It used to be an “When machines make decisions, we area of research that was very academic finished, the researchers then took two want them to be clear on what stage they – but in the past five years people have days to ‘train’ the system before it was have reached in this process. And when realised these methods are incredibly put into action. they are unsure, we want them to tell us.” useful across a wide range of societally “It’s remarkably good at recognising One method is to build in an internal important areas. things in an image, because it’s had so self-evaluation or calibration stage so that “We are awash with data, we have much practice,” says Alex Kendall, a PhD the machine can test its own certainty, increasing computing power and we will student in the Department of Engineering and report back. see more and more applications that who designed the segmentation system Two years ago, Ghahramani’s group make predictions in real time. And as with Professor Roberto Cipolla and Vijay launched the Automatic Statistician with we see an escalation in what machines Badrinarayanan. “However, there are a funding from Google. The tool helps can do, they will challenge our notions million ‘knobs’ that we can turn to fine- scientists analyse datasets for statistically of intelligence and make it all the more tune the system so that it keeps getting significant patterns and, crucially, it also important that we have the means to trust better.” provides a report to explain how sure it is what they tell us.” SegNet labels more than 90% of about its predictions. pixels correctly. Previous systems using “The difficulty with machine learning expensive laser or radar-based sensors systems is you don’t really know what’s Professor Zoubin Ghahramani have not been able to reach this level of going on inside – and the answers Department of Engineering accuracy while operating in real time. they provide are not contextualised, [email protected] “In the short term, we’re more like a human would do. The Automatic likely to see this sort of system on a Statistician explains what it’s doing, in a Dr Adrian Weller domestic robot – such as a robotic human-understandable form.” Department of Engineering vacuum cleaner,” explains Cipolla. “It Where transparency becomes [email protected] will take time before drivers can fully especially relevant is in applications like trust an autonomous car, but the more medical diagnoses, where understanding effective and accurate we can make these the provenance of how a decision is made Words technologies, the closer we are to the is necessary to trust it. Louise Walsh widespread adoption of driverless cars Dr Adrian Weller, who works with and other types of autonomous robotics.” Ghahramani, highlights the difficulty: “A particular issue with new artificial intelligence (AI) systems that learn or evolve is that their processes do not Demo available: clearly map to rational decision-making http://bit.ly/1RubiG5 30 Spotlight: DigitalContents society MAKING THE HIDDEN VISIBLE

espite being founded on ideals as the top country in terms of searches of freedom and openness, for porn. Then, in 2012, YouTube was D censorship on the internet is blocked for three years when a video, rampant, with more than 60 countries deemed blasphemous, appeared on the engaging in some form of state- website. Only in January this year was sponsored censorship. A research the ban lifted, when Google, which owns project at the University of Cambridge YouTube, launched a Pakistan-specific is aiming to uncover the scale of this version, and introduced a process by censorship, and to understand how which governments can request the it affects users and publishers of blocking of access to offending material. information. All of this raises the thorny issue of censorship. Those censoring might raise For all the controversy it caused, Fitna objections to material on the basis of is not a great film. The 17-minute short, offensiveness or incitement to violence by the Dutch far-right politician Geert (more than a dozen people died in Wilders, was a way for him to express his Pakistan following widespread protests opinion that Islam is an inherently violent over the video uploaded to YouTube in religion. Understandably, the rest of the 2012). But when users aren’t able to world did not see things the same way. access a particular site, they often don’t In advance of its release in 2008, the know whether it’s because the site is film received widespread condemnation, down, or if some force is preventing them especially within the Muslim community. from accessing it. How can users know When a trailer for Fitna was released what is being censored and why? on YouTube, authorities in Pakistan “The goal of a censor is to disrupt the demanded that it be removed from flow of information,” says Sheharbano the site. YouTube offered to block the Khattak, a PhD student in Cambridge’s video in Pakistan, but would not agree to remove it entirely. When YouTube relayed this decision back to the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority (PTA), the decision was made to block YouTube. Although Pakistan has been intermittently blocking content since 2006, a more persistent blocking policy was implemented in 2011, when porn content was censored in response to a media report that highlighted Pakistan 31 Research Horizons

Computer Laboratory, who studies different error messages, depending on writings deemed objectionable for as internet censorship and its effects. what the censor wants them to know. long as human discourse has existed. “internet censorship threatens free and “The thing is, even in countries like However, censorship over the internet can open access to information. There’s Saudi Arabia, where the government tells potentially achieve unprecedented scale, no code of conduct when it comes to people that certain content is censored, while possibly remaining discrete so that censorship: those doing the censoring – how can we be sure of everything they’re users are not even aware that they are usually governments – aren’t in the habit stopping their citizens from being able being subjected to censored information.” of revealing what they’re blocking access to access?” asks Khattak. “When a Professor Jon Crowcroft, who Khattak to.” The goal of her research is to make government has the power to block works with, agrees: “It’s often said that, the hidden visible. access to large parts of the internet, how online, we live in an echo chamber, where can we be sure that they’re not blocking we hear only things we agree with. This more than they’re letting on?” is a side of the filter bubble that has What Khattak does is characterise its flaws, but is our own choosing. The the demand for blocked content and try darker side is when someone else gets to work out where it goes. In the case to determine what we see, despite our of the blocking of YouTube in 2012 in interests. This is why internet censorship Pakistan, a lot of the demand went to is so concerning.” rival video sites like Daily Motion. But in “While the cat and mouse game She explains that we haven’t the case of pornographic material, which between the censors and their opponents got a clear understanding of the is also heavily censored in Pakistan, will probably always exist,” says Khattak. consequences of censorship: how it the government censors didn’t have a “I hope that studies such as mine will affects different stakeholders, the steps comprehensive list of sites that were illuminate and bring more transparency those stakeholders take in response blacklisted, so plenty of pornographic to this opaque and complex subject, and to censorship, how effective an act of content slipped through the censors’ nets. inform policy around the legality and ethics censorship is, and what kind of collateral of such practices.” damage it causes. Because censorship operates in an inherently adversarial environment, Despite any government’s best gathering relevant datasets is difficult. efforts, there will always be individuals Much of the key information, such as and publishers who can get around what was censored and how, is missing. censors, and access or publish blocked In her research, Khattak has developed content through the use of censorship methodologies that enable her to monitor resistance systems. A desirable property, censorship by characterising what normal of any censorship resistance system is to data looks like and flagging anomalies ensure that users are not traceable, but within the data that are indicative of usually users have to combine them with censorship. anonymity services such as Tor. She designs experiments to measure “It’s like an arms race, because the various aspects of censorship, to detect technology which is used to retrieve and Professor Jon Crowcroft censorship in actively and passively disseminate information is constantly Computer Laboratory collected data, and to measure how evolving,” says Khattak. “We now have [email protected] censorship affects various players. social media sites which have loads of user-generated content, so it’s very Sheharbano Khattak difficult for a censor to retain control Computer Laboratory of this information because there’s so [email protected] much of it. And because this content is The primary reasons for government- hosted by sites like Google or Twitter Words mandated censorship are political, that integrate a plethora of services, Sarah Collins religious or cultural. A censor might take wholesale blocking of these websites a range of steps to stop the publication is not an option most censors might be of information, to prevent access to willing to consider.” that information by disrupting the link In addition to traditional censorship, between the user and the publisher, or to Khattak also highlights a new kind of “censorship over directly prevent users from accessing that censorship – publisher-side censorship information. But the key point is to stop – where websites refuse to offer services the internet can that information from being disseminated. to a certain class of users. Specifically, she looks at the differential treatments of potentially achieve Tor users by some parts of the web. The issue with services like Tor is that visitors unprecedented Internet censorship takes two main to a website are anonymised, so the forms: user-side and publisher-side. owner of the website doesn’t know where scale” In user-side censorship, the censor their visitors are coming from. There is disrupts the link between the user and increasing use of publisher-side censorship the publisher. The interruption can be from site owners who want to block users made at various points in the process of Tor or other anonymising systems. between a user typing an address into “Censorship is not a new thing,” their browser and being served a site on says Khattak. “Those in power have their screen. Users may see a variety of used censorship to suppress speech or 32 Spotlight: DigitalContents society

When is a book not a book? he ebook has made continued inroads into the publishing world T but the printed book has defied predictions of its death. Research by Professor John Thompson focuses on the challenges facing the publishing industry as it embraces the opportunities afforded by the digital revolution.

In his book Merchants of Culture, Professor John Thompson recounts a conversation with the head of media asset development at a large US publishing house. The topic is the impact and future of digital publishing. His interviewee, anonymised as Steve, has come from the music industry, where he has seen the digital revolution disrupting traditional models. Tasked with shaping the future of a leading publishing house, Steve is struggling to convince his colleagues to think differently about books and to embrace the digital revolution. He says: “A book is not a book. Books are categories. Books are types. Books are different styles of things.” Thompson is interested in the changing structure of the book publishing industry as the digital revolution transforms the processes and products of the publishing business in ways that are both visible and invisible to the consumer. The outcome of his present research will be a book that is due to be published in by digitisation introduces new challenges. texts were clunky and old fashioned; 2017, in which he will describe the volatile, Steve explains that, while paper digital versions were smart and sleek. contested environment responsible for books are relatively simple to deliver Many new start-ups were launched, delivering texts to millions of readers in an (“you’re delivering tree”), the delivery of seeking to create new forms of the book ever-increasing range of formats. digital goods is much more complicated. that exploited the multimedia potential of At the heart of Thompson’s “The thing that people always hoped was new technologies. But, despite the hype, conversation with Steve is a discussion the digital world would get simpler and sales of ebooks remained sluggish and about the thousands of files that are the it’s actually a whole lot more complicated many start-ups failed. publisher’s most valuable assets – literally because your end result isn’t the same. Ebooks finally began to take off in its lifeblood. Having digitised its backlist of The end result is a database, the end autumn 2007 when Amazon launched the top sellers, the company holds an archive result is a PDF, it’s an image-based PDF, Kindle, which allowed readers to download of 40,000 titles, a figure that is constantly it’s an XML file, it’s an ad-based, Google- books and other content directly onto their expanding. How these files are archived, search-engine toolset – we’re going to devices. Sales of ebooks soared: in 2010 managed and protected so they can be have many more properties digitally than one large publisher saw its ebook sales delivered to readers in the most suitable we possibly could have physically. We rise from 12% to 26% of its revenue over formats is vital to the continuing health have seven physical properties [for our Christmas week. of the publishing house. The archiving books]… and online we have hundreds of Industry pundits had predicted that process has been far from simple, formats and types and styles.” ebook sales would be driven by business requiring the retrieval of files from printers Few of these challenges were foreseen books and by businessmen, but it didn’t and opening up heated debates about in the feverish hype of the 1990s that the work out like that – far from it. “The real copyright. And the sheer flexibility offered days of the book were numbered. Paper areas of growth were commercial fiction 33 Research Horizons

music sector but that hasn’t happened. There isn’t a single model that describes the impact of the digital revolution on the creative industries – there are multiple models, and the impact varies from industry to industry and sector to sector.” While no one can be sure how the pattern of ebook sales will develop in the future, the digital revolution has already had an enormous impact on the way the publishing industry works. In what Thompson calls “the hidden revolution”, the processes involved in taking a text through the supply chain, from author to reader, have been thoroughly transformed. Print-on-demand means that a book never goes out of print, and with the advent of self-publishing anyone can publish. “This means that the numbers of books being published, and the number available, have risen dramatically. But how do readers get to know about what’s out there? New platforms have emerged to supplement the traditional model of the newspaper review,” he says. The rise of Amazon has played a major part in these developments. “Amazon is part and parcel of the digital revolution. The company started in a garage as a classic internet start-up and its ascendancy took everyone by surprise,” says Thompson. Publishers have benefited from Amazon’s growth but they now find themselves locked in a power struggle with the retail giant, who controls around 67% of all ebook sales in the USA and over 40% of all new book unit sales, print and digital. Relations have become increasingly fraught, he says. Publishers have tried to retain control of pricing by selling ebooks on an ‘agency model’, which allows them to fix the price, while Amazon has used its growing market share to try to extract better terms of trade from publishers. and genre fiction – categories like in an industry where overall sales remain The struggle ebbs and flows and at times sci-fi, mysteries and crime, romances and largely static. Many people working in the becomes vicious, as it did during the 2014 thrillers,” says Thompson. “This was a industry worried that publishing would go standoff between Amazon and Hachette revolution being driven largely by women the same way as the music industry. But (one of the Big Five US trade publishers). reading commercial and genre fiction on then something dramatic happened: the Thompson is determined to get to their Kindles.” growth slowed and levelled off at around grips with the fine detail of what goes Much has happened since Thompson’s 22%, forming a classic S-curve. “When on behind the scenes in the day-to-day interview with Steve took place in New you dig beneath the surface, however, you publishing processes. “Fifteen years ago York, but Thompson has maintained the see that the simple S-curve is misleading I knew little about trade publishing, but many publishing contacts who give him because it conceals a great deal of we can only understand how this industry first-hand access to the latest industry variation between different kinds of books. works and how it’s changing by immersing developments. He is now mid-way through In the case of romance fiction, the growth ourselves in it and looking carefully at what an ambitious project to revisit publishers begins to level off at around 60%, whereas happens when new technologies collide on both sides of the Atlantic in order to many categories of nonfiction plateau at with the old world of the book.” discover “what is happening while it’s between 15% and 25%,” says Thompson. happening” in an industry that suddenly “By looking at what is happening Professor John Thompson finds itself at the centre of a major inside the industry, we can see that Department of Sociology disruptive transformation. some of the fears about the future of the [email protected] From 2008 to 2012, ebooks grew from publishing industry were misplaced. Many less than 1% of total US trade sales to observers thought that developments in Words over 20%; this was phenomenal growth book publishing would follow those in the Alex Buxton 34 Inside out

Extreme sleepover: Welcome to the alien world of data

2.5 billion gigabytes of data being produced

Credit: Alex Taylor Alex Credit: every 24 hours

lex Taylor provides a sensory of thick, encaged cables runs above our Virtually all our daily activity – both snapshot of his fieldwork in heads, along with large pipes circulating online and offline – entails the production A high-security subterranean data water around the data centre for cooling of data, with 2.5 billion gigabytes of centres exploring fears of technological purposes. As we descend the galvanised data being produced every 24 hours. This failure in our data-dependent society. steel stairway, it’s like boarding a is stored in the 8.6 million data centres spaceship that’s buried deep beneath the that have spread acoss the globe. I’m standing 100 feet underground in Earth’s surface. Yet, few of us realise that we are using the middle of a fluorescent-white room. The room we enter is almost data centres. In the middle, stand four rows of server completely white. The only other colour Data centres now underpin an cabinets. I’m following Matej, a data down here comes from thousands of incredible range of activities and centre technician, as he carries out server lights blinking rapidly like fireflies utilities across government, business some diagnostic tests on the facility’s behind the electro-zinc-coated ‘Zintec’ and society, and we rely on them for IT equipment. To get here we had to go doors of the server cabinets. We have even the most mundane activities: our through several security checks, including entered the realm of data, an alien world electricity and water accounts are located a high-tech biometric fingerprint scanner of tiny, undulating lights that seem almost in data centres, a single Google search and a good old-fashioned, low-tech alive. These iridescent lights flash as data can involve up to five data centres, massive door. travels to and from the facility through information from the train tickets we The IT equipment is distributed over fibre-optic cables at speeds of around swipe at turnstiles are routed through multiple floors, each going deeper and 670 million miles per hour, close to the data centres. These places process deeper below ground into the seemingly speed of light. billions of transactions every day and infinite depths of the data centre. There This building has been designed with extreme efforts are made to ensure that is a constant hum of electrical voltage the sole purpose of providing optimal they do not fail. down here; it’s the kind of vibratory, living conditions for data growth and One such effort is the increasingly carcinogenic sound you would normally survival. An ambient room temperature of common practice of storing data associate with pylon power lines and it around 20–21°C and a humidity level of underground in ‘disaster-proof’ facilities makes you think you’re probably being 45–55% must constantly be maintained. – in the same way that seed and gene exposed to some sort of brain-frying In this sterile, dustless world of brushed banks store biological material that is electric field. I ask Matej about this and metal surfaces, data live and thrive like essential for human survival. What does he tells me, “it’s probably ok.” precious crystals. Server cabinets become this say about the importance of data to When Matej is finished in this room stalagmite formations sparkling frenetically our society? This is what I am down here we head downstairs. Our footsteps with the digital activity of millions of researching. Working with data centres, sound hollow and empty on the elevated people doing their daily things in that exact IT security specialists, cloud computing metallic walkways. A complex highway moment all around the world. companies and organisations that are 35 Research Horizons

trying to raise awareness about the vulnerabilities of digital infrastructures, I am exploring the cultural hopes, fears and imaginations of data as it pertains to what many are calling our ‘digital future’. My fieldwork has led me to focus on the fears of disaster and technological failure that motivate data centre practices and discourses, from routine Disaster Recovery plans to storing hard drives in Faraday cages to protect them Hernández Cohen- a “the dramatic growth of internet technologies is creating a new era THe against electromagnetic threats.in democratic The life, a crisis for the established media, and possibilities for Hernandez-Orallo . 9781107153011 PPC. C M Y K Are psychometric tests valid for a new reality of artificial intelligence participatory politics that challenge liberal institutions. this book docu- Confronting ments today’s turning point with urgency and profound clarity. ithiel de systems, technology-enhanced humans, and hybrids yet to come?

sola Poole’s Technologies of Freedom has become a classic work defining lmago R Are the Turing Test, the ubiquitous CAPTCHAs, and the various ani- current mass exodus into ‘the thecloud’ information society, with mediais technology as its axis. Confronting the the internet’s STRUCTUREmal cognition tests the best alternatives? In this fascinating and - Internet’s Dark Side is of that quality – a potential classic that defines for Measure

provocative book, José Hernández-Orallo formulates major scientific o us moral responsibility in the new media age.” questions, integrates the most significant research developments, rallo – Clifford Christians, research Professor of Communications, AND DYNAMICS University of illinois and offers a vision of the universal evaluation of cognition. of raising important questions about our Confronting the Dark siDe “Cohen-almagor recognizes that if social responsibility on the internet is all OFBy replacing CITIES the dominant anthropocentric stance with a universal to be implemented, discussions will need to focus on how and why one perspective where living organisms are considered as a special can draw limits on what one does on the internet, as well as what isPs Urban data analysis and theoretical modeling increasing societal dependenceand countries upon can do with the internet. not everyone will agree with the Moral and Social case, long-standing questions in the evaluation of behavior can be T solutions proposed, but in light of the detailed stories concerning hate addressed in a wider landscape. Can we derive task difficulty intrin- H

sites (toward groups or humanity in general), webcam viewing of actual of e Measure MInds Responsibility on the sically? Is a universal g factor – a common general component for suicides, the exponential growth of child pornography, and so forth, it is all abilities – theoretically possible? Using algorithmic information digital technology and the resilience,hard to fall back on knee-jerk first amendment responses.” MARC BARTHELEMY theory as a foundation, the book elaborates on the evaluation of – robert Cavalier, Department of Philosophy, evaluating natural Carnegie Mellon University Free Highway perceptual, developmental, social, verbal and collective features and critically analyzes what the future of intelligence might look like. i sustainability and security of the“in this book digitalraphael Cohen-almagor makes a forceful case for greater nternet’s Dark and artificial Intelligence social responsibility on the part of internet service providers and all who - surf the Web. Calling on us to think and act like citizens of the online José Hernández orallo is Professor of Information Systems world, he insists that we have a moral obligation to confront those who and Computation at the Technical University of Valencia. He has abuse the technology by using it to disseminate hate propaganda and published four books and more than a hundred articles and papers infrastructure that supports ourchild pornography, online or by engaging in cyber-bullying, or by aiding and on artificial intelligence, machine learning, data mining, cognitive abetting terrorism. fast-paced, philosophically sophisticated, and filled a science, and information systems. His work in the area of machine with illustrative and sometimes heart-wrenching examples, the book is ll M I intended to serve as a wake-up call and will challenge its readers to re- intelligence evaluation has been covered by both scientific and and offline lives. Fears of a ‘digital’consider their views of free expression in the internet age.” popular outlets, including The Economist and New Scientist. He – stephen L. newman, Department of Political science, pioneered the application of algorithmic information theory to the s nds

York University i

D development of artificial intelligence tests. e disaster occurring in the futureRaphael are Cohen- almagoalsoR is Professor and Chair in Politics at the University of hull, United kingdom. reflected in cultural artefacts such as TV

Cover image: Data security. Courtesy of © barisonal / getty images. shows about global blackouts and books Cover image: Credit to come Cover design by Holly Johnson Raphael Cohen-almagoR Cover design by Holly Johnson José Hernández-orallo about electromagnetic pulse events. In an age of constant and near compulsory connection to computers, tablets and smartphones, how would we survive if they all suddenly and simultaneously ceased to function? Data centres are being configured as infrastructures critical not only for supporting our data-based society, but also for backing up and even potentially For all your re-booting ‘digital civilisation’, if it should collapse. My fieldwork is not all doom and disaster, though. In fact, sometimes it’s quite spectacular. Right now I am research needs standing in a heavily air-conditioned aisle flanked on each side by large, monolithic cabinets of server racks. www.cambridge.org/researchhorizons “This is one of my favourite things,” Matej says, as he flicks the overhead lights off and plunges us into an abyssal darkness punctured only by server lights, flashing like phytoplankton all around us. For a moment, we watch these arrhythmic INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS lights flickering, beautiful and important, MULTILAYER SOCIAL AS DISCOVERY OF some vanishingly small. EVIDENCE, HYPOTHESES, NETWORKS AND ARGUMENTS But these little lights have immense CONNECTING THE DOTS Mark E. Dickison, BIG Matteo Magnani and Luca Rossi significance. Something huge is happening down here. It feels like you are CRISIS witnessing something incomprehensibly vast, something so massively distributed, Social Media in Disasters complex and connected to all of us that and Time-Critical Situations it’s hard to even know what you are seeing take place. It’s like looking at the stars. Gheorghe Tecuci • David A. Schum CARLOS CASTILLO Dorin Marcu • Mihai Boicu

Alex is a PhD student with the Division of Social Anthropology. His research is supervised by Dr Christos Lynteris, and is funded by the Cambridge Home and EU To receive a 20% discount off these titles, please Scholarship Scheme. enter the code RHAUT16 at the checkout. Offer available until 31 January 2017. Offer excludes eBooks. Alex Taylor Division of Social Anthropology [email protected] T +44 (0)1223 765 443 E [email protected] W cam.ac.uk/research f facebook.com/cambridge.university twitter.com/cambridge_uni youtube.com/cambridgeuniversity instagram.com/cambridgeuniversity

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“Something huge is happening down here...

Credit: Alex Taylor Alex Credit: p. 34