Upgrade of Regional Railway Lines - An investigation of integrating Lille Syd in the TEN corridor Master Thesis june 2015 Rie Jensen, s092824 Mai-Britt Rasmussen, s092826 Upgrade of Regional Railway Lines - An investigation of integrating Lille Syd in the TEN corridor Main Report Authors Rie Jensen, s092824 Mai-Britt Rasmussen, s092826 Master Thesis 60 ECTS Points Supervisors Kim Bang Salling, DTU Transport Alex Landex, Rambøll Lars Wittrup Jensen, DTU Transport Upgrade of Regional Railway Lines Rie Jensen, s092824, June 26th 2015 Mai-Britt Rasmussen, s092826, June 26th 2015 Preface This project constitutes the Master’s Thesis of Mai-Britt Rasmussen, s092826 and Rie Jensen, s092824. The project is conducted at the Department of Transport of the Tech- nical University of Denmark in the spring 2015. The project accounts for 60 ECTS points. The official supervisors for the project have been Associate Professor Kim Bang Salling, Chief Consultant Alex Landex, Rambøll and Ph.D. Student Lars Wittrup Jensen. We would like to extend our gratitude to Alex Landex for providing skillful guidance throughout the completion of project. Furthermore, we would like to thank Lars Wittrup Jensen for, in addition to guidance, also providing the project with results for the capacity analysis. We would also like to thank Jesper Thorsen for guidance in the completion of the pro- posed optimisation model and for implementation of the model. In addition, we would like to thank every one who has contributed with material, con- sultantance and guidance in the completion of this project. A Special thank is pointed to the entire Railway department at Grontmij, who has provided office facilities throughout the main part of the project. The project could not have been realised without their guid- ance and provision of project material. Finally, we will like to thank Rail Net Denmark for letting us use the provided project material. In addition to the physical main and appendix reports at hand, a CD is included with results of the main investigations, and an electronic version of the report in its full length. Mai-Britt Rasmussen Rie Jensen Department of Transportation June 2015 v Abstract Present thesis investigates the opportunity of integrating the Lille Syd line in the Copen- hagen-Fehmarn corridor. The investigation is based on common European visions for increasing the rail transport in the European transport corridors, and the development of the Danish railway network in accordance hereto. An analysis of the network capacity of the Copenhagen-Fehmarn corridor concluded, that the line was highly utilised. The method used for analysing the corridor, is a newly proposed network capacity model proposed by Lars Jensen in his Ph.D. study, in 2015. To facilitate the capacity in the corridor, different infrastructural design solutions for integration of the Lille Syd line is investigated, with the purpose of relocating traffic to the line and thereby relieving the capacity. The relocation of traffic concerns two freight train paths and two passenger trains, in relation to a proposed timetable for 2027, based on the implementation of the Fehmarn Belt link. The design solutions all include an implementation of a second track along the line, as the existing single track line indicates a high utilisation. Besides the im- plementation of a second track, two speed upgrade solutions of 160 km/h on the entire line and 200 km/h respectively are proposed, to avoid sacrificing the travel time for high speed passenger trains. The network capacity analysis, with the integration of the Lille Syd line and relocation of traffic, indicated a significant improvement. In the investigation of the different speed profiles for the line, results showed that profiles of higher speed led to a poorer result for the network capacity. The poorer result is explained by the increase in heterogeneity, for running both slow freight trains and fast passenger trains on the line. To determine whether the different line solutions can be realised, the existing single track line is upgraded. Clarification of the Danish railway norms forms the foundation for the upgrade and construction of the second track. Comparisons with the TSI requirements indicate, that the Danish track geometry regulations in general are more restrictive, and that Danish exceptional regulations more or less reflects the TSI requirements. To fa- cilitate the procedure for track upgrades, an optimisation model is conducted with the purpose of optimising the cant size according to the existing track layout. Different geo- metrical track design solutions are investigated, with the purpose of proposing two final speed profiles with a design speed of 160 and 200 km/h respectively. In reality, it was not possible to reach the respective design speeds in all line sections, which therefore led to a reduction in travel time savings according to the initial assumptions. An evaluation of the different track design solutions is carried out, in relation to the realised travel time savings contra the estimated construction costs. The estimated con- struction costs for the solutions are determined through a project description of the re- quired work to be carried out. The findings in the project description indicates, that the implementation of a second track results in significant high costs for reconstruction of vii VIII road and railway bridges. Besides the consideration of bridges, high costs for implement- ing the second track are found according to the track superstructure and the construction of embankments. The total costs for the two investigated alternatives resulted in 1.76 billion for the 160 km/h alternative, and 2.64 billion the 200 km/h alternative. The overall benefits of integrating the Lille Syd line in the corridor include; travel time savings, relief in network capacity and introduction of improved flexibility. The travel time savings for relocating the traffic via the shorter Lille Syd line, indicated very small savings for the passenger lines, and negative savings were actually obtained for the di- rect train, if the line was not upgraded to 200 km/h. The results for the freight trains were somewhat different. Regardless of the two speed upgrade initiatives, freight trains obtained travel time savings of up to 5.6 minutes, due to the reduction in travelled kilo- metres. Ideally, the network capacity analysis should be conducted again considering the actual obtained speed profiles. Due to time constraints, this has however not been possi- ble. Assumptions of the development in the network capacity suggests, that a poorer re- sult will not be obtained, due to the lack of reaching the design speed of 160 and 200 km/h on all line sections. The results from the earlier conducted network analysis showed, that slower speed profiles resulted in improved capacity. The flexibility parameter is difficult to measure, however, the introduction of an alternative suggests in a larger flexibility in the network. The benefits are weighted against the costs of the different alternatives and the findings conclude, that it will not be beneficial to increase the speed on the Lille Syd line, as pas- senger trains will not gain any significant travel time savings despite the reduction in route length. On the contrary, freight trains gained large travel time savings. Keeping the improved network capacity in mind with the benefit of separating slow freight trains from the fast corridor, the project concludes that an implementation of a second track along the line will benefit the total network. Based on this, current project suggests that a further investigation of implementing a second track should be initiated. To facilitate the strategy for upgrading railway lines, a process flow chart is designed. The flow chart is formed on the processes carried out in present project. An improvement in the process flow is suggested, by introducing greater integration between the operational planning and the infrastructural design processes. A model to facilitate this is proposed, with the focus of the general process flow to form into an iterative process. The technical design and implementation of the model is not developed, and the focus is therefore merely on the improved process flow. Contents 1 Introduction1 1.1 Purpose.......................................2 1.2 Delimitation....................................2 1.3 Reading Guide...................................3 2 Background5 2.1 The Political Background.............................5 2.1.1 The Trans-European Transport Network................5 2.1.2 Green Transport Policy..........................6 2.1.3 Togfonden DK..............................7 2.2 The Traffical Background.............................8 2.2.1 Freight Transport in Denmark.....................8 2.2.2 Passenger Transport in Denmark.................... 10 2.2.3 Future transport needs and conflicts.................. 10 2.3 The Lille Syd Corridor............................... 12 2.3.1 Station Potential............................. 14 2.3.2 Interlinked Operation with the Local Line............... 15 2.4 Summary of Background............................. 15 3 Capacity Theory 17 3.1 The UIC 406 Method............................... 17 3.2 The UIC 406 Method Carried Out........................ 19 3.3 Congestion..................................... 21 3.4 Evaluating the UIC 406 Method......................... 22 3.5 New Method for Assessment of Capacity Consumption in Railway Network 23 3.5.1 Model Framework............................ 23 3.5.2 Stochastic Extension..........................