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Helium One Global | Equity Research 14Th December 2020 Helium One Global | Equity Research 14th December 2020 Helium One Global GICS Sector Energy Initiation of Coverage: Primary Helium Pure Play Ticker LN:HE1 Market cap 11-Dec-20 (US$m) 48 Initiating coverage with a risked NAV of 11p/sh (~50% upside) Share price 11-Dec-20 (GBp) 7.2 Helium One Global Ltd (“Helium One”; ticker “HE1”) is a UK AIM-listed pure- play helium exploration company, with a first-mover advantage in developing helium assets in Tanzania. Founded in September 2015, its goal is to become a NAV summary (p/sh) significant primary supplier of high-grade helium to industry. It owns exploration licences in three locations in Tanzania, where prospective resources Asset Unrisked Risked have been identified with helium concentrations that are amongst the highest in Kasuku 30 3.3 the world. HE1 is the only listed company in the UK that enables investors to Itumbula 32 2.4 participate in the helium market. Having previously been a private company, HE1 raised an upsized GBP£6mm and amalgamated with Attis Oil and Gas in Mbuni 40 3.1 order to gain a London listing in early December 2020. Cash/other 2 2 Helium market investment dynamics versus oil & gas Total NAV 104 11 Alongside this report, we have also produced a comprehensive macro report on Source: H&P estimates the helium sector. Helium has several unique properties that make it an essential element for many industries, which cannot be synthesised or manufactured, and with no substitutes. There has been a shortage of helium in recent years leading to a significant increase in prices. Helium is an extremely highly-valued commodity with a price around 100x that of natural gas, meaning even small amounts or low concentrations can be highly economic. Given the smaller footprint of a helium development, a standalone helium production US$762mm facility can be developed quicker and much more cost effectively than a Unrisked value of the 3 prospects conventional greenfield oil and gas discovery that would normally take five-plus planned to be drilling in H1’21 years and potentially cost billions of dollars to develop. A concentrated market also confers a competitive advantage to the current participants. HE1 expects to produce helium from resources that do not have associated hydrocarbon accumulations, allowing HE1 to produce carbon emission-free helium, unlike >650% most of the global supply that is a by-product of natural gas operations. Listed Share price performance of the 3 helium companies have soared in value over the last year, in stark contrast to oil primary helium E&P companies and gas companies. over the last year Rukwa project has the potential to be a material helium producer Helium One’s key asset is its Tanzanian licence, Rukwa, which is a globally unique large-scale, high-grade, primary helium project. Most helium is produced as a by-product in large gas developments but Rukwa is one of very few helium projects that could be produced from non-hydrocarbon sources. To put it in context each of the wells is targeting the equivalent of around a year’s H&P Advisory Ltd is a Retained Advisor to Helium One. The cost global helium demand. The total prospect inventory is 138bcf unrisked (P50), of producing this material has the largest primary helium resource in the world. HE1 has a first mover been covered by Helium One as advantage in Tanzania, with attractive fiscal terms for helium extraction and part of a contractual engagement low exploration drilling costs. with H&P; this report should therefore be considered an Exploration drilling in Q2 2020 targeting 18bcf worth £1.02/sh unrisked “acceptable minor non-monetary HE1 intends to drill three exploration wells (on the Kasuku, Itumbula and benefit” under the MiFID II Mbuni prospects) within the Rukwa licence in Q2’21. Each well should take a Directive. month to drill but helium shows in the mudlogs could be reportable prior to hole completion. We carry 34p/sh of unrisked and 3p/sh of risked value on average for each well. A substantial part of the overall risking relates to the “play” risk, which is the same for all prospects. Therefore, if one well is Anish Kapadia successful, it would derisk HE1’s other targets. We estimate that it could double Research Analyst the overall chance of success for the other prospects. T +44 (0) 207 907 8500 E [email protected] Valuation: almost 15x upside on an unrisked basis; peers +650% over last year In our base case scenario, we use a helium price of US$250/mcf long-term flat Jay Ashfield from 2021 and a 14% discount rate from 1/1/2021. Our risked NAV is 11p/sh, Sales which implies ~50% upside from the current share price. On an unrisked basis, T +44 (0) 207 907 2022 we have a NAV of £1.04/sh or almost 15x upside. Further to this are the follow- E [email protected] on prospects that are not included in our NAV and its other exploration areas. Helium focused E&P companies, especially those akin to Helium One that focus on primary helium have seen their shares rise by >650% over the last year, demonstrating the market’s interest in the helium sector. H&P Advisory Ltd 2 Park Street, Mayfair London W1K 2HX Helium One Global | Equity Research 14 December 2020 Contents Investment Case ......................................................................................................... 3 Catalysts ...................................................................................................................... 6 Company Overview ..................................................................................................... 8 Valuation ................................................................................................................... 10 NAV ........................................................................................................................... 10 Balance Sheet and Funding ...................................................................................... 12 Shares and shareholder structure ............................................................................ 13 Loan conversion ....................................................................................................... 14 Amalgamation with Attis ......................................................................................... 14 Peer group comparison ............................................................................................ 15 Rukwa Project ........................................................................................................... 16 Licence history and data acquisition ........................................................................ 17 Resource potential .................................................................................................... 19 Exploration and appraisal plans .............................................................................. 21 Geological risk .......................................................................................................... 23 Source ....................................................................................................................... 24 Migration .................................................................................................................. 25 Reservoir ................................................................................................................... 25 Seal ............................................................................................................................ 25 Trap ........................................................................................................................... 26 Regulation and licence terms ................................................................................... 27 Valuation and economics ......................................................................................... 27 Other Assets .............................................................................................................. 31 Eyasi and Balangida ................................................................................................. 31 Balangida .................................................................................................................. 32 Eyasi .......................................................................................................................... 33 Management Profiles ............................................................................................... 34 Board of Directors & Key Management ................................................................... 35 Investment Risks ...................................................................................................... 38 Tanzania Overview ................................................................................................... 39 Economy ................................................................................................................... 39 Regulatory and fiscal ................................................................................................ 39 Ease of doing business in Tanzania ......................................................................... 40 Extractive industries ................................................................................................ 41 Foreign company involvement ................................................................................ 41 Disclaimer .............................................................................................................
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