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Strategic Partnership Between Russia and China: Importance and Sustainability of Bilateral Relations

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Strategic Partnership Between Russia and China: Importance and Sustainability of Bilateral Relations ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ ЗАМЕТКИ http://dx.doi.org/10.18611/2221-3279-2016-7-2(23)-112-117 STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA: IMPORTANCE AND SUSTAINABILITY OF BILATERAL RELATIONS Alexander Sharyshev INTRODUCTION world’s “core” countries, including Europe, the United States and Russia. These factors make In the light of the present political crisis China stand out against other Asian regional in Ukraine and Russia’s involvement in it, par- powers. ticularly the Ukrainian Civil war and Crimea China is rising to dominate Asia in both annexation, Asia is becoming more and more political and economic sense and has already important for Russia. The West1 has become reached the second position in the world in hostile towards Russia; it is implementing eco- terms of GDP, with only the United States sur- nomic sanctions and other means of political passing it. While some analysts predict that and economic pressure such as imposing re- China will soon pass ahead of the United States strictions on entering the European Union and in economic terms, the majority of scholars are the USA for some Russian politicians and busi- skeptical about it because much depends on nessmen. Among all, the main Asian partner for the methods of calculation and the choice of Russia is China. This research paper focuses on critical measures. Nevertheless, Chinese eco- current relations between Russia and China, nomic strength is indisputable and it is one of outlining the reasons for establishing a strate- the strongest players on the international arena gic partnership between these two countries in economic-wise. the contemporary context and explaining why Some experts say that the power dynam- those bilateral relations are sustainable in the ics in the world are reshuffl ing and the source future. of infl uence is shifting from the West to the East. According to professor of Politics and SINO-RUSSIAN RELATIONS International Affairs at Princeton University G. J. Ikenberry, “American era is coming to For the past few decades we have seen а an end, as the Western-oriented world order is signifi cant rise of Chinese economic and politi- replaced by one increasingly dominated by the 3 cal strength. China has become a “major hub of East” with China to serve as the main source of the global economy”2 due to its rapid economic Asian dominance. growth. It also proves to be a leader in the Asian Considering Russia, it has shown a high regional subsystem: it has not only economic degree of stability despite a sharp decrease in strength, but also political power and diversi- oil prices – an economic determinant which is fi ed economic and political relationships with an integral part of the Russian economy – and the ability to withstand economic and politi- cal pressure coming from the outside. Russian 1 Term “The West” in this research paper refers particularly to the United States and the European Union. 3 Ikenberry, John G. The Rise of China and the 2 Putin, Vladimir. Russia and the Changing World // Future of the West // Foreign Affairs, February, Sputniknews, February 27, 2012. Mode of access: http:// 2008. Mode of access: https://www.foreignaffairs. sputniknews.com/analysis/20120227/171547818. com/articles/asia/2008-01-01/rise-china-and- html. future-west. 112 СРАВНИТЕЛЬНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА . 2 (23) / 2016 ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ ЗАМЕТКИ Ruble was very volatile in the wake of the sharp it can concentrate its military resources and decrease in oil prices and economic sanctions planning on other strategic theaters, above all imposed on Russia in response to the Ukrainian in the Western Pacifi c.”6 crisis. Russian Ruble depreciated dramatically but later it stabilized on acceptable level con- FOREIGN FACTORS trary to more pessimistic expectations of most of the Russian and foreign analysts. Nowadays, it is important to think trilater- Partnership between Russia and China – ally: the United States, Russia and China are two global powers – is a promising alliance powerful players on the international arena which shares the same interests, and is able to with complex system of interrelations. The withstand global threats and shape the existing United States conducts powerful and compre- world order. This is the main reason to maintain hensive foreign policy affecting almost every and develop Sino-Russian relations further. country in the world. With its infl uence on the Two areas where Russia and China espe- East Asian countries – to larger extent on Japan cially need each other are energy and global and South Korea and to less extent on Vietnam governance. Energy cooperation is one of the and Philippines – along with the local tensions most valuable assets that Russia can offer to between China and its aforementioned regional China in exchange for further mutually benefi - neighbors, there is a threat for China to end up cial political and economic cooperation. Russia in the middle of a “geopolitical encirclement” is planning to increase its energy presence in if the relationships between Russia and China Asia. According to “Energy Strategy of Russia will deteriorate. In this case the United States for the Period up to 2030”, published in 2010, will have more leverage to infl uence China`s Russia is planning to increase oil exports to the economic and political decisions. Asia-Pacifi c region from 8 to 22-25 per cent Besides, energy security of China will be and natural gas from zero to 20 per cent up to under threat because the sea routes through 2030.4 In the light of the recent crisis in Ukraine which China imports energy resources are con- with all its negative consequences for Russia, trolled by the countries that can be easily infl u- Russian energy presence in East Asia, particu- enced by the United States, particularly Singa- larly in China, may even exceed the aforemen- pore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Such a scenario tioned numbers. is unacceptable for China which increases the Considering global governance, the both importance of the bilateral partnership with countries seek political cooperation in order to Russia from the Chinese perspective. maintain equitable and promote a multipolar Russia also becomes an important strate- world order, and to withstand global threats. gic ally of China due to its ability to conduct In April 1997 Moscow and Beijing adopted aggressive foreign policy towards the West, a the “Joint Declaration on a Multipolar World foreign policy that China is not willing to con- and the Establishment of a New International duct due to various reasons. Among those rea- Order”.5 The aim of this document was to sons are strong economic ties with the West, promote sovereignty and the equality of all particularly with the United States and adher- members in the international community. Also, ence of China to less aggressive and more mod- Beijing is interested in having a protected and erate foreign policy. peaceful northern border with Russia, “so that The both countries can cooperate to bal- 4 ance regional power dynamics and to contain Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period up to the United States with its extensive foreign pol- 2030. Offi cial Document. Mode of access: http:// www.energystrategy.ru/projects/docs/ES-2030_ icy fueled by their ambitions of a global hege- (Eng).pdf. mon, which corresponds to the interests of the 5 Joint Declaration on a Multipolar World and the Establishment of a New International Order, 6 Lukin, Artyom. Why the Russian Far East 1997, Moscow. Original document retrieved Is So Important for China // The World Post, from the offi cial web page of the United Nations. April 16, 2015. Mode of access: http://www. Mode of access: http://www.un.org/documents/ huffingtonpost.com/artyom-lukin/russian-far- ga/docs/52/plenary/a52-153.htm. east-china_b_6452618.html. COMPARATIVE POLITICS . 2 (23) / 2016 113 ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ ЗАМЕТКИ both countries. Close cooperation between However, there are some issues with pos- Russia and China is important to maintain an sible Chinese active presence in Russian Far equitable world order and promote multipolar- East. Chinese investments can pose a threat to ity in the world. Russian national economic security, with more Economic cooperation and further integra- and more Chinese nationals populating these tion is another important part in Sino-Russian regions. Inability to assimilate them in Russia relations. “…colossal potential for business co- may lead to serious territorial tensions in a few operation – a chance to catch the Chinese wind decades: the Chinese settlers might attempt to in the sails of our economy”,7 Putin writes in hold referendums to secede and join the PRC, his article “Russia and the Changing World”. possibly justifying their claims with the Crimean Dmitri Trenin, the director of Moscow Carn- precedent. Russia can end up being in confl ict egie Center, suggests that “while shared global with one of its most important strategic allies. and regional interests are important to the Sino- But, if it is the case, it is a long-term perspective. Russian relationship, they are not the only glue: In the fi rst instance, China needs to develop its trade and investment play a key role.”8 Accord- North-Western part, which is characterized by ing to statistics published by General Admin- low density of population amounting to several istration of Customs of China on the 10th of million people comparing to almost 1.3 billion January 2014, Russia is the 10th largest trading population in the Eastern part of China (note, partner of China, with trade volume amounting that the total population in China is 1.357 bil- to US $89.21 billion.9 Trade volume in 2014 lion as of 2013),11 so that Chinese territory will was the US $95.3 and in 2015 it is expected be more evenly populated before the issue of that trade volume may reach US $100 billion.10 overpopulation of Chinese territory will become Economic cooperation and integration is an in- of a high concern.
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