ENGIE Renewable Energy Sources Outlook 2020 Edition ENGIE Renewable Energy Sources Outlook | Foreword Foreword I am pleased to share with you In many ways, the pandemic has shown us the this first edition of our ENGIE renewable Outlook way to build a more sustainable system tomor- which encompasses both a strategic view on row. It notably emphasised the key role that renewable resources and solutions as well as a renewable energy solutions could play to make documented approach on energy transition our energy system more resilient should it be challenges. through power production, storage, green gases or green hydrogen. This report will also explore The strong trends to fight climate change, the how those solutions could be used, developed real urge for a low carbon economy, the clear and combined to draw a sustainable future. shift towards a greener energy paradigm, have 2 not been derailed by Covid. They have been reaf- Of course, strong efforts will be needed to firmed despite the health and economic crisis, stop and reverse the increase of CO2 emissions. pushing many stakeholders to align on a trajec- There will be struggles and the battle is far from tory for carbon neutrality during the first half of being won to contain the rise in global tempera- the century. tures below 2°C. Nevertheless, we can already Gwenaëlle Avice-Huet, notice that the approach on energy has changed Executive Vice President, Challenges linked with climate change are a with a global awareness on social and environ- responsible for the Global concern for our societies as a whole: they will mental challenges, with a drop in production Renewable Business Line require engagement from territories, institutional costs for renewables, with technological break- players, companies, industrial players and from throughs that have made green, sustainable individuals. In this report we intend to give an energy reach a whole new dimension. And what update on energy transition and to describe what we can already say is that this trend is set to still needs to be done to meet our collective envi- continue and to intensify. ronmental imperatives. ENGIE Renewable Energy Sources Outlook | Foreword Since 2000, global installed renewable capa- Of course, the Energy sector has a specific to make our future power systems stronger, city has more than tripled, and if we look speci- responsibility when it comes to environmental cost-effective and reliable. fically at wind and solar: installed capacity has targets as 75% of greenhouse gases come from been multiplied by almost 70. Several factors are energy combustion. But at the same time, the We dedicate a large portion of this document driving this tremendous growth of renewable sector could provide a large proportion of the to explore the wide range of solutions which will energy, among them: government policies. Over solutions. Thanks to the commitment of a wide play a part in the energy transition, describing the last few years, almost all countries have range of stakeholders, including ENGIE, the their potential and current stage of development. adopted renewable energy targets and, today steps that need to be taken are now clearly Our analysis has notably benefited from the more than ever, we see strong policy initiatives identified. enlightened views of renowned expertise centers to support renewable development. In a post-co- that responded to our invitation to comment on vid context, the EU €750 billion recovery pac- At ENGIE, we are engaged to increase the energy transition. kage, with funds at European level, is a first of a development of renewable energy capacities, kind with 30% of this package to fight against keeping notably in mind one of the learnings of Obviously, at the end of the day, the energy climate change. This is a clear choice to invest in this crisis: namely the importance of local energy transition agenda will be subject to different a green, digital and resilient Europe, including in resources and production, favoring short supply approaches depending on geography and local or ambitious, innovative technologies like Hydrogen. chains. But we are also convinced that no decar- national priorities. But to reach the ambitious 3 We see daring ambitions in other continents too, bonisation pathway is achievable without signi- global long-term targets that the world needs notably pushed by the newly elected US President ficant deployment of energy efficiency measures. we’ll have anyway to push, combine and accele- to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. Should we talk about buildings, cities, industry, rate the implementation of effective solutions transports. Through energy efficiency we could including efficient technologies, green finance, And it’s not only about states and about public potentially reduce global energy consumption by innovative business models and incentivising engagement: private sector and corporate also over a third. A decarbonised energy system in a policy measures. And that way, we’ll be able to play their part of the game and set strong targets. secure, and cost-effective manner will require a make it. There is a strong surge in corporate sustainability full range of solutions, including district cooling commitments around the world. Nearly 400 com- and heating or energy storage. I hope this report can bring new angles to panies around the world committed to setting a your thoughts on the energy challenges ahead science-based target in 2019, more than dou- Finally, to reach a zero-carbon world and com- and interesting inputs to your work towards new bling the total number of firms with these goals. plement the deployment of renewables we’ll also solutions. Wishing you a nice read. These firms have pledged to reduce their emis- need to link up technologies across energy car- sions in line with the Paris Agreement, and clean riers: we’ll notably need low carbon energy vec- energy will be an essential part of this strategy. tors (hydrogen, biogas, etc.) and sector coupling ENGIE Renewable Energy Sources Outlook | Summary Summary 4 Setting Panorama of Enablers in a Renewables in the scene renewable decarbonised COVID times p. 5 solutions energy system p. 56 p. 17 p. 40 Main references p. 63 Notes p. 64 ANNEX: Abstract of the Dashboard of Energy Transition - 2020 Edition p. 68 Setting the scene With the Paris Agreement, the international community set the objective to limit the increase in global temperature to well below 2°C1. Reaching this objective will require a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Aspirations of consumers towards low-carbon solutions are growing, and countries are pushing for increasingly ambitious regulations. This environmental consciousness places the energy sector as a whole in the limelight. Whereas electricity generation only represents 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions, the use of the combustion energy of fossil fuels altogether represents around 75% of GHG emissions2. 5 The energy sector therefore has a major role to play, not only in reducing its own emissions but also in enabling emission reductions for all the different usages of energy. While energy-efficiency remains the first objective, another fundamental component of lowering GHG emissions will be the decarbonisation of energy vectors. This will require a full range of solutions, from the further deployment of renewable electrical and thermal energies, to the greening of gas, and the search for local, system-oriented solutions within a circular economy approach. ENGIE Renewable Energy Sources Outlook | Setting the scene MASSIVE ACCELERATION OF recently, the production of biogas and biome- RENEWABLE DEVELOPMENT thane has experienced a significant growth. AROUND THE WORLD These green gases can be used in a variety of Panorama of renewable applications such as electricity, heating, and transport. Global installed capacity of bio- energy sources Massive acceleration of renewable develop- gas-based electricity generation has more ment around the world is driven by growing than doubled, from 8.2 GW in 2009 to development societal expectations, increasingly stringent 18.1 GW in 20187 and another estimated 700 regulations and falling costs. The rela- plants upgrade biogas to biomethane8 for tionship to energy has changed drastically injection into the gas grids. Overall, although in the past ten years, with a global aware- fossil-fuel generation capacities still domi- Whether solar, wind, hydro or biomass based, energy ness of social and environmental challenges nate the global energy mix, renewable is now increasingly green. This section provides an and increasing regulation. The drop in pro- energy grew faster than any fossil fuel. Fig. 1 overview of the current state of renewable energy duction costs and technological break- throughs have made renewable energy deployment since early 2000s. It looks at the more competitive and this trend is set to Emerging economies are becoming expansion of renewable energy across technologies continue. leading players and world regions. The section also emphasises the Attention is more and more being focused on emerging economies as the growth in drivers for the expansion of renewable energy as well 6 Significant acceleration over the past RES developments moves beyond Europe as the increasingly important role of green gas in the decades and the U.S. to new markets. For almost a future of decarbonisation. Over the past decades, global installed decade, China has been a leader in the glo- renewable energy sources (RES) capacity has bal deployment of renewables. The country more than tripled, going from 754 GW in is the largest market for solar PV globally, 2000 to 2,537 GW in 20193. As a result, ins- with a cumulative installed capacity repre- talled RES capacity was enough to provide an senting more than 30% of the global market estimated 27% of global electricity genera- in 2019. Solar PV capacity in the country tion at the end of 20194. The International rose significantly, from 0.8 GW in 2010 to Energy Agency (IEA) projects an even greater 204.6 GW in 2019 at a compound annual increase in renewable capacities worldwide, growth rate of 85%.