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Mr. Ranga Iyer, Former MD Wyeth Pg 38. DISCUSSION: Dr 1ST - 28TH Feb 2015 . Vol 2 Issue 2 . For Private Circulation Only pg 32. Attack of the Clones!! pg 35. INTERVIEW: Mr. Ranga Iyer, Former MD Wyeth pg 38. DISCUSSION: Dr. Goel, Chief Secretary, Agri Maharashtra GROUND VIEW - PREVIOUS ISSUES VOL 2 . ISSUE 2 . 1ST - 28TH FEB 2015 Vineet Bhatnagar- Managing Director and CEO EDITORIAL BOARD: Naveen Kulkarni, Manish Agarwalla, Kinshuk Bharti Tiwari COVER & MAGAZINE DESIGN Chaitanya Modak, www.inhousedesign.co.in FOR EDITORIAL QUERIES: PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400 013 RESEARCH Automobiles Dhawal Doshi, Priya Ranjan 1st Jan 2015 Issue 1 16th Dec 2014 Issue 12 Banking, NBFCs Manish Agarwalla, Pradeep Agrawal, Paresh Jain Consumer, Media, Telecom Naveen Kulkarni, Jubil Jain, Manoj Behera Cement Vaibhav Agarwal Economics Anjali Verma Engineering, Capital Goods Ankur Sharma, Hrishikesh Bhagat Infrastructure & IT Services Vibhor Singhal, Deepan Kapadia Metals Dhawal Doshi, Ankit Gor Mid-caps Vikram Suryavanshi 15th Nov 2014 Issue 11 1st Oct 2014 Issue 10 Oil & Gas, Agri Inputs Gauri Anand, Deepak Pareek Pharmaceuticals Surya Patra, Mehul Sheth Retail, Real Estate Abhishek Ranganathan Technicals Subodh Gupta Production Manager Ganesh Deorukhkar Sr. Manager – Equities Support Rosie Ferns SALES & DISTRIBUTION Kinshuk Tiwari, Ashvin Patil, Shubhangi Agrawal, Kishor Binwal, Sidharth Agrawal, Bhavin Shah, Varun Kumar, Narayan Mulchandani CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS Zarine Damania 1st Sep 2014 Issue 9 16th Aug 2014 Issue 8 [email protected] 2 GROUND VIEW 1 - 28 Feb 2015 1 - 28 Feb 2015 GROUND VIEW 3 LETTER FROM THE CONTENTS MANAGING DIRECTOR The Indian food services industry has undergone a remarkable transformation in the last 10 years and it is one of the fastest growing industries. Rising affluence of the middle class, changing lifestyles and increased global exposure have contributed to the rapid growth of the industry. Most of the global food service majors have established their presence in India and are looking 4. COVER STORY: to scale up their operations. Well beaten, ready to rise Competition has clearly intensified and the last 2 years Ground View assesses the strength and weak- have been particularly harsh marked by persistent high nesses of global and Indian food services food inflation and decline in same store sales. This how- brands ever has not deterred the global majors from investing and they have continued to remain very aggressive by opening new stores or launching new brands hoping for a turnaround. With moderating inflation, decline in crude prices and a likely pick up in consumption growth, good times for the food services industry are round the corner. Our cover story on the Indian food services industry penned by analysts Naveen Kulkarni and Jubil Jain explores the strengths and weaknesses of major global brands & their 32. Attack of the Clones!! recipe for success. Decline in crude prices is a boon to customers but the 35. INTERVIEW: FMCG industry sees significant rise in competitive activ- Mr. Ranga Iyer ity. Categories sensitive to market share like Detergents Healthcare Consultant, Formar are hit particularly hard in a deflationary scenario. Our MD of Wyeth short essay on the imminent revival of the small scale detergents industry assesses the impact on detergent majors and the strategy of largest FMCG Company, Hindustan Unilever. Also read in this issue freewheeling discussions with Mr. 38. DISCUSSION: Dr. Sudhir Goel Ranga Iyer, former managing director of Wyeth as he Chief Additional Secretary, Agriculture, Maharashtra highlights the emerging trends in the Indian Pharmaceu- tical industry and with Mr. Sudhir Goel, Chief Additional Secretary, Agriculture, Maharashtra as he shares his 40. Indian Economy – Trend indicators views on farm economics and progress on GM crops. 42. ICC Cricket World Cup 2015 Schedule Best Wishes 44. PhillipCapital Coverage Universe: Vineet Valuation Summary 2 GROUND VIEW 1 - 28 Feb 2015 1 - 28 Feb 2015 GROUND VIEW 3 Dinner rush at various QSRs 4 GROUND VIEW 1 - 28 Feb 2015 1 - 28 Feb 2015 GROUND VIEW 5 COVER STORY In January, one more global fast food chain, the Florida-headquartered Burger King, set up shop in Mumbai, having entered India late last year. That means more choice for consumers and more competition for suppliers. Over the past few years organized players added more than 2,000 restaurants and the industry has built up huge capacity and is looking forward to achhe din (good times). The organised restaurant industry, one of the fastest growing in India, has captured the imagination of global companies, investors and industrialists. The industry is expected to continue its rapid growth with increasing economic prosperity. “Competition helps to grow the market and the entry of more players indicates the market potential,” says Mr. Ravi Gupta, CFO of Jubilant Foodworks. However, not every enterprise may flourish, as the organized restaurant industry is marked by fast changing consumer preferences and one of the highest mortality rates. Some business models and formats will grow faster than others but some will languish, eating into the pockets of investors and promoters. “Well beaten, ready to rise”, is an in-depth study of the nuances of the Indian restaurant business. It aims to clarify the strengths and weaknesses in emerging business models. pg. 6 Entrée The rise and rise of the food services industry _____________________________________________________ pg.8 First course All you want to eat from the West _____________________________________________________ pg.24 Second course Home food is best _____________________________________________________ pg.29 Dessert Good times round the corner _____________________________________________________ BY NAVEEN KULKARNI & JUBIL JAIN 4 GROUND VIEW 1 - 28 Feb 2015 1 - 28 Feb 2015 GROUND VIEW 5 ENTRÉE The rise and rise of the food services industry ver the past few years the food and China with respect to the number of outlets services industry, especially in the of the top five fast-food chains shows the poten- organized sector, has grown rapidly tial of Indian markets. mainly due to a surge in the middle According to an Indian retail and FMCG manage- Oand upper class populations and the number of ment consultancy, Technopak, the Indian food double-income couples. The industry growth is services industry is a US$48 bn industry, 70% un- expected to continue, in keeping with the growth organized and 30% organized. Technopak expects of the Indian economy. A comparison of India the market to grow to US$78 bn by 2018, a CAGR of 10%, with the organized sector accounting Outlet counts: India vs China for 39% of the market. The organized market is expected to post 16% CAGR and the unorganized market is expected to post 7.3% CAGR. New categories have emerged and each category has a well established international and domestic chain competing fiercely for the consumer’s share of wallet. The Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) and Casual Dining Restaurant (CDR) segments account for over 70% of the share of the organized market. The organised Food Services market is expected to post 18% CAGR over the next few years but the growth could be even higher as more chains enter and discover innovative ways to fulfill customer needs. Indian QSR market 6 GROUND VIEW 1 - 28 Feb 2015 1 - 28 Feb 2015 GROUND VIEW 7 QSR formats Categories Prominent restaurant chains Frozen dessert (including ice-cream and yoghurt) Haagen Dazs, Naturals, McDonalds, Swirl, Yogurt Bay Cafés Café Coffee Day, Starbucks, Barista, Tea Leaf & Coffee Bean, Costa Coffee, Mad Over Donuts QSR (quick service restaurants) KFC, McDonalds, Subway, Faasos, Box8, Dunkin Donuts & more, Dominos, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell CDR/FDR or Casual/fine dining restaurants Mainland China, Sigree Global Grill, Barbeque Nation, Spaghetti Kitchen, Moshe’s, Nando’s Chicken PBCL (pubs, bars, clubs, lounges) Jugheads, Pop Tate’s, Hoppipola Size of chain fast foods market Mr. Amit Jatia, Vice Chairman of Westlife De- a CAGR of 11-14%. India has significant headroom velopment Limited, franchisee of McDonald’s, available when compared globally. India’s QSR on Indian QSR industry. segment is only ~16% of the overall IEO market whereas the corresponding proportion is higher in “The vast Indian middle-class is pressurized by countries like China (24%), Hong Kong (21%) and professional commitments, daily commutes, and Singapore (19%). Moreover, the branded compo- domestic chores which has resulted in increasing nent of India’s QSR market is a mere 1% aggre- frequency of eating out across urban India. How- gating around 1800 odd stores, which pales in ever, the average frequency of about 8-9 times a comparison to a demographically similar country month in metros like Mumbai is just half of some like China with 7000 units shared between just two ASEAN benchmarks of 17-18 times a month. Ris- international QSR brands.” ing number of Indians are becoming increasingly particular about food hygiene. So even as India’s Informal Eating Out (IEO) market is projected to grow at 11% during 2014, reaching ~USD 107 bil- lion, its QSR component, where we are present, is expected to grow the fastest to ~USD 17 billion at 6 GROUND VIEW 1 - 28 Feb 2015 1 - 28 Feb 2015 GROUND VIEW 7 FIRST COURSE All you want to eat from the West f gluttony is a sin then Indian gastronomes crucial to achieve scalability. Despite the entry of several new are probably among the biggest transgres- players, the advantage lies with older players and their ability sors. Indian gastronomes have been partying to build a scalable proposition. non-stop over the past few years, celebrating Ieither the launch of a brand, restaurant or cate- gory almost every week. The success of fast-food brands like Domino’s pizza, McDonald’s burgers and Yum! Brands’ fare has brought in a slew of players not just in the quick service restaurant (QSR) space but also in the fine dining category.
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