After 2008: Where Do We Go from Here?

SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS | COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY | JANUARY 2008 news After 2008: SIPA Where Do We Go from Here? news SIVOLUME XXI No.PA 1 JANUARY 2008 Published biannually by School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University his issue of SIPA News focuses on a moment attacks on New York and Washington produced a From the of transition in the United States and there- temporary wartime consensus that dissolved when Tfore the world community. The U.S. elec- its costs under unilateralist leadership became tions will produce a new administration, including clear. On the other hand, the disproportionate Acting Dean a new president, vice president, and 3,000 presi- electoral weight of states with small populations dential appointees in the executive branch. The in the traditionalist interior of the country make elections also seem likely to produce more turnover it difficult for the U.S. Congress to modernize than usual in the U.S. Congress. Much less predict- outdated domestic policy regimes. How far the able is the direction the new government will take new administration can move may depend in part in domestic and international policymaking. What on its success in moving pieces of the domestic is certain amid all this upheaval is that the thin line agenda onto its international agenda. This is most that once separated foreign and domestic affairs likely to happen on environmental issues where will continue to dissolve. global warming cannot be faced without global For much of the past century, the U.S. elector- cooperation. Many other “domestic” issues are ate has moved back and forth between unilateral- simultaneously international: immigration, emerg- ism and engagement in international affairs. The ing disease control, consumer product safety, swing of this pendulum has seldom moved at the arms trafficking, labor standards, human and civic same speed and direction as the domestic policy rights. This issue of SIPA News looks at some of pendulum swings between traditionalism and these policy arenas, and at U.S. relations with key modernism. In recent years, the two have begun countries, to assess where the United States stands swinging together. Unilateralism is the preferred now and the challenges that will face the new foreign policy of isolationists, many of whom administration. view the international arena as a source of moral SIPA also finds itself in a moment of transi- as well as physical threats. Traditionalism is the tion. After ten years of the inspired and effective preferred domestic policy of many who fear that leadership of Lisa Anderson, the School has a change will undermine the spiritual as well as the strong foundation on which to build its future. material foundations of their society. Coalitions And what a future that will be: a new building in of “the willing” seem better than permanent com- the Manhattanville campus, academic and financial mitments to international organizations. Local independence, an improved curriculum, greater fel- standards and decisions are best for education, lowship and financial aid for students, and a grow- health care, environment, labor, and even civic ing faculty of the highest quality. SIPA has always and property rights than national or, worse yet, been engaged in the world and looking for ways to international treaties and norms. get better. The new plan promises to turn SIPA’s Isolationism and traditionalism impose heavy biggest challenges into its greatest strengths. burdens on U.S. citizens as well as the citizens of other countries and seldom command electoral John H. Coatsworth majorities in the United States. The 2001 terrorist Acting Dean contents FEATURES p.15 p.24 p.32 p.35 p.38 Global HIV/AIDS Behind the Memory and SIPA Alum Staying in Touch p.2 Policy after 2008: Glimmering National Identity Ambassador Siv with Alumni: Opportunity for Façade: A Look By Jina Moore Joins “Romney SIPA’s New Print Decision 2008 New American into China’s for President” and Online By Robert C. Lieberman Leadership Environmental Campaign Directories By Sawa Nakagawa Crisis INSIDE SIPA By Nilanjana Pal By Daniela Coleman p.6 By Nichole Wong Gomez The Election and p.18 p.36 p.38 Health Reform p.34 Powering India: p.28 SIPA’s New SIPA Alumni By Paula Wilson Faculty Profile: A Prototype for A Challenge for José Antonio Director of Alumni Groups Get Active! Nuclear Energy the Next Ocampo Relations: Daniela p.8 Agreements? President: Free By Matteen Mokalla Coleman By Samanth Trade By Matteen Mokalla p.39 Washington and the Subramanian By Lincoln Ajoku and Nilanjana Pal Environment: How Donor List FY 07 Today’s Regulations p.35 May Keep the p.21 p.30 SIPA Alum p.37 Next President’s Pollock Brings Getting Russia EU’s New Ralph O. Hellmold Hands Tied Strategies from Right: The Future Geopolitical Honored with By Matt Klasen the Campaign Trail of U.S.-Russia Reality: Do Not to the Classroom Alumni Medal Relations Expect a Pro- By Rob Garris By Jackie Carpenter American Stance p.12 By Eduardo Peris p.37 Open Letter to a Deprez SIPA’s Alumni Democratic Council Launches President New Projects By Richard W. Bulliet DECISION 2008 By Robert C. Lieberman 2 SIPA NEWS y initial reaction on being asked to write about the three most decisive issues in the 2008 U.S. presi- dential campaign was Should the United States keep traveling down the that this would not be Bush administration’s path of Man easy task. Once you get past Iraq, I thought, what would there be to say? After all, the 2006 blundering unilateralism and policy . ? Congressional elections, in which the Democrats won majorities in both houses of Congress, was widely interpreted as a referendum on the Bush administration’s handling (or mishandling, depending on your point of view) of the invasion and occupation of Iraq, which most Americans IRAQseemed to be at the forefront of American policy ill for the Republicans, as voters tend to take out think has gone terribly wrong. Why should 2008 disputes over the last few years seem, for the time their economic frustrations on the party of the be any different, especially given that President being, to have run their course—Social Security current administration. But the economic chal- Bush’s reaction to his party’s electoral defeat was privatization and immigration reform, for exam- lenges of 2008 pale in comparison with recent not to follow the apparent will of the majority of ple. Another cluster of issues such as abortion, elections, such as 1980 and 1992, when economic American voters and move toward withdrawal but stem cell research, and gay marriage sharply concerns were paramount. to extend his already unpopular policy by escalat- divide the Republican Party’s Christian conserva- This will nevertheless be a campaign guided ing the American presence in Iraq? tive base from the Democrats’ more liberal and by deep differences among parties and candidates But how, I wondered, to identify the issues cosmopolitan core, but such issues are hardly dis- on a series of key issues that stand in for a set of that will ultimately distinguish the parties and tinctive to this year’s campaign and seem unlikely profound differences in approach and orientation candidates from one another and set the agenda to play an unusually important role this year. The toward America’s role in the world and the gov- for the political season in the year leading up to economy, too, seems suddenly shaky in the wake ernment’s role in society: Iraq, health care, and November 2008? Some of the specific issues that of the summer’s credit crunch, a trend that bodes the environment. SIPA NEWS 3 Some 47 million Americans lack health insurance, health care costs continue to rise, and the fundamental absurdity of HEALTHAmerica’s patchwork system of health insurance is becomingCARE more apparent by the day. The war in Iraq, of course, still dominates the American political landscape and is likely to do so for the foreseeable future. Despite widespread public skepticism of the administration’s handling of the occupation of Iraq and anxiety about the conflict’s endgame, the Republican candidates are broadly committed to a continuation of the administration’s policy. The Democratic candidates universally deride the administration’s stubbornness and offer a variety of alternatives ranging from immediate withdrawal to recogni- tion of a more permanent American presence in the region. But the more profound division here is not over the particulars of our Iraq policy but rather over the vision of the American role in the world and the response to the international challenges exposed by the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Should the United States keep traveling down the Bush administration’s path of blundering unilateralism and policy, driven more by ideology and faith in American military power than by careful strategic plan- ning and international partnership? How can and should the United States engage the world? This is the fault line that the war in Iraq has exposed, and bridging it will require more than just a solu- tion in Iraq. Health care, which dominated the politics of the mid-1990s, is back at the center of American domestic politics. Some 47 million Americans lack health insurance, health care costs continue to rise, and the fundamental absurdity of America’s patchwork system of health insurance is becoming more apparent by the day. Every major candidate has offered a policy proposal to cover the uninsured, control costs, and bring some order to the chaos. But a wide gulf sepa- rates Republican proposals that would basically extend the current system of private insurance and Democratic proposals that envision a larger role for the government in ensuring equity and adequacy in the health care system.

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