Q ED Queen’s Economics Department Working Paper No. 1231 Resources, Trade, and the Aboriginal Population: Lessons from the 1780s Smallpox Epidemic in the Hudson Bay Region Ann Carlos Frank Lewis University of Colorado, Boulder Queen’s University Department of Economics Queen’s University 94 University Avenue Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3N6 6-2009 Resources, Trade, and the Aboriginal Population: Lessons from the 1780s Smallpox Epidemic in the Hudson Bay Region Ann M. Carlos Department of Economics University of Colorado at Boulder Boulder, CO 80309
[email protected] and Frank D. Lewis Department of Economics Queen’s University Kingston, Ontario Canada K7L 3N6
[email protected] Preliminary: not to be quoted Conjectures, assumptions and assertions surround the debate on the size of Native American populations just prior to European contact. Current estimates for North America north of the urban civilizations of central Mexico range from a low of 1,041,480 argued by Kroeber to Dobyns’ estimate of 18,022,006 (Ramenofsky 1987: 7). A consensus view would put the estimate in the range of six to twelve million people. A critical implication of these estimates relates to the impact on native peoples of the diseases brought by the first Europeans. During the years after Europeans came to North America there are early estimates of aboriginal populations based on contemporary observations of native settlements. Prior to contact, the main source for population is the archeological evidence, which depends on the number and extent of excavation and thus has the potential of underestimating the numbers. For the more immediate post-contact period there are some estimates of aboriginal populations based on the observations of contemporaries about the size of native settlements.