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Brazil's Agricultural Competitiveness Under Currency United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Brazil’s Agricultural Competitiveness: Service Recent Growth and Future Impacts Economic Research Report Under Currency Depreciation and Number 276 Changing Macroeconomic Conditions September 2020 Constanza Valdes, Kim Hjort, and Ralph Seeley United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service www.ers.usda.gov Recommended citation format for this publication: Valdes, Constanza, Kim Hjort, and Ralph Seeley. September 2020. Brazil’s Agricultural Competitiveness: Recent Growth and Future Impacts Under Currency Depreciation and Changing Macroeconomic Conditions, ERR-276, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Cover photo images from Getty Images. Use of commercial and trade names does not imply approval or constitute endorsement by USDA. To ensure the quality of its research reports and satisfy governmentwide standards, ERS requires that all research reports with substantively new material be reviewed by qualified technical research peers. This technical peer review process, coordinated by ERS' Peer Review Coordinating Council, allows experts who possess the technical background, perspective, and expertise to provide an objective and meaningful assessment of the output’s substantive content and clarity of communication during the publication’s review. 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Submit your completed form or letter to USDA by: (1) mail: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C. 20250-9410; (2) fax: (202) 690-7442; or (3) email: [email protected]. USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender. United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Brazil’s Agricultural Competitiveness: Service Recent Growth and Future Impacts Economic Research Report Under Currency Depreciation and Number 276 Changing Macroeconomic Conditions September 2020 Constanza Valdes, Kim Hjort, and Ralph Seeley Abstract Macroeconomic reforms and policies have contributed to Brazil’s emergence as one of the world’s most competitive agricultural exporters. Brazil’s agricultural sector increased its exports in recent years, despite experiencing one of its worst recessions during 2014-16, falling inter- national commodity prices, and slower demand growth in China and other foreign markets. To understand the forces behind this development, this report examines the effects of changing macroeconomic conditions on Brazil’s agricultural production and trade by simulating impacts of accelerated depreciation of its exchange rate and sustained macroeconomic growth. When the Brazilian currency weakens, higher prices in local currency stimulate production and exports of most major commodities. Simulations show that depreciation of Brazil’s currency results in greater world supplies, lower prices in global markets, and increased competition for U.S. exports. Finally, a simulation of stronger Brazilian economic growth shows that an increase in domestic consumption would have reduced Brazil’s exports of beef, corn, cotton, ethanol, pork, and soybean meal, easing downward pressure on world prices. However, Brazil’s soybean exports would not have been significantly affected by stronger economic growth. Keywords: Brazil, agriculture, production, trade, recession, exchange rate, devaluation, credit, interest rates, domestic support. Acknowledgments The authors thank Steven Zahniser, Fred Gale, Cynthia Nickerson, and Jeffrey Gillespie of USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS); Oliver Flake, Agricultural Counselor in Brasilia, of USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service; reviewers in the USDA, Office of the Chief Economist, and other anonymous reviewers for their comments and technical peer reviews. Cheryl Christensen (USDA, ERS retired) and Joseph Cooper (formerly of USDA, ERS) provided addi- tional feedback. Thanks also to Angela Brees and Jana Goldman of USDA, ERS for editorial and Chris Sanguinett for design services. Contents Summary ..................................................................... iii Introduction .................................................................... 1 Background: Brazil’s Macroeconomy and Agriculture ................................ 4 Analyzing Future Scenarios for Brazilian Agriculture ................................ 13 Accelerated Devaluation Scenario ................................................17 Sustained Economic Growth Scenario. .23 Model Projections Under the Sustained Growth Scenario versus the Reference (Recession) Scenario: Results for 2019-2028 .................................................26 Conclusion .................................................................... 32 References .................................................................... 34 Appendix - A Model of Brazilian Agriculture and the Country-Commodity Linked System (CCLS) ....................................................................... 37 ii Brazil’s Agricultural Competitiveness: Recent Growth and Future Impacts Under Currency Depreciation and Changing Macroeconomic Conditions, ERR-276 USDA, Economic Research Service Summary United States Department of Agriculture A report summary from the Economic Research Service September 2020 United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Brazil’s Agricultural Competitiveness: Service Recent Growth and Future Impacts Economic Research Report Under Currency Depreciation and Number 276 Changing Macroeconomic Conditions September 2020 Brazil’s Agricultural Competitiveness: Constanza Valdes, Kim Hjort, and Ralph Seeley Recent Growth and Future Impacts Under Currency Depreciation and Changing Macroeconomic Conditions Constanza Valdes, Kim Hjort, and Ralph Seeley What Is the Issue? Brazil’s macroeconomic policies have played an important role in its emergence as one of the top exporters of agricultural products, including soybeans, corn, cotton, sugar, coffee, orange juice, and meat. However, extended periods of currency depreciation, low energy costs and interest rates, rising demand for biofuel feedstocks, and macroeconomic fluctuations have contributed to Brazil’s emergence as a competitor for the United States in global agricultural markets. This study explores the role of macroeconomic variables by simulating the impact of Brazilian policy-driven currency depreciation and sustained macroeconomic growth on Brazilian agricultural output and trade. The potential impact of macroeconomic events on Brazil’s agricultural exports remains important, especially as the country’s economy and agri- cultural commodity markets are vulnerable to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. What Did the Study Find? A weaker value of Brazil’s currency, the real (denoted as BRL), during its deep 2014-16 recession contributed to the record growth in Brazil’s agricultural exports. During 2014-16, devaluation of the Brazilian currency encouraged Brazil’s farmers to bring more new land into production and increase double-cropping. Consequently, local currency-denominated prices yielded increased net returns for Brazilian farmers despite weak dollar-denominated prices in global markets. The expansion of Brazil’s land use was led by a 20-percent growth in the soybean area. USDA has projected additional growth in production and exports to 2028, and simulations show that this growth could accelerate if Brazil’s currency weakens more than previously expected. Alternatively, stronger economic growth in Brazil could stimulate more domestic meat consumption with more domestic use of corn and soybean meal. Key findings from two simulated macroeconomic scenarios (accelerated depreciation and ERS is a primary source sustained growth) show: of economic research and analysis from the U.S. • Faster depreciation of the real could lead to even faster growth in Brazilian exports than Department of Agriculture, providing timely informa- projected in USDA’s 10-year projections. Simulations show that Brazil’s exports of each tion on economic and policy major commodity
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