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Brazilian Real FOR INSTITUTIONAL / WHOLESALE / PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION PORTFOLIO INSIGHTS 2021 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 25th Annual Edition | Assumptions matrix: Brazilian real Time-tested projections to build stronger portfolios BRAZILIAN REAL ASSUMPTIONS 2021 ESTIMATES AND CORRELATIONS COMPOUND RETURN 2020 (%) BRAZILIAN REAL ASSUMPTIONS Note: All estimates on this page are in Brazilian real terms. Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative ANNUALIZED VOLATILITY (%) optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations to all of these asset classes and strategies. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on this information is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise ARITHMETIC RETURN 2021 (%) of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only–they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes COMPOUND RETURN 2021 (%) only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions Brazilian Inflation constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Brazilian Inflation 4.30 4.30 1.00 4.50 1.00 This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. Brazilian Cash Brazilian Cash 5.80 5.80 0.79 7.80 0.20 1.00 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; as of September 30, 2020. Alternative asset classes (including hedge funds, private equity, real estate, direct lending, global core Brazilian Local Govt Bonds infrastructure and global core transport) are unlike other asset categories shown above in that there is no underlying investible index. The return estimates for these alternative asset classes and strategies are estimates of the industry average, net of manager fees. The dispersion of return among managers of these asset classes and Brazilian Local Govt Bonds 8.40 8.44 3.02 9.40 -0.12 0.21 1.00 Brazilian Inflation-Linked Bonds strategies is typically significantly wider than that of traditional asset classes. Correlations of value-added and core real estate in their local currencies are identical since value-added local returns are scaled versions of their corresponding core real estate local returns. All returns are nominal. For the full opportunity set, please contact your Brazilian Inflation-Linked Bonds 7.80 8.01 6.77 9.60 0.00 0.12 0.83 1.00 Brazilian Floating Rate Credit J.P. Morgan representative. Brazilian Floating Rate Credit 6.80 6.81 1.61 8.80 0.06 0.42 0.79 0.84 1.00 Global Aggregate Bonds hedged Global Aggregate Bonds hedged 6.50 6.54 2.96 8.40 -0.12 0.00 0.32 0.28 0.29 1.00 U.S. Long Corporate Bonds U.S. Long Corporate Bonds 1.10 2.51 17.15 2.40 -0.09 -0.10 -0.19 -0.24 -0.15 0.46 1.00 FIXED INCOME U.S. High Yield Bonds U.S. High Yield Bonds 3.80 4.62 13.17 4.60 -0.04 -0.14 -0.32 -0.33 -0.23 0.09 0.80 1.00 Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt 4.20 5.18 14.48 4.50 -0.07 -0.09 -0.17 -0.23 -0.09 0.32 0.90 0.88 1.00 Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt 4.20 4.70 10.29 5.30 -0.15 -0.11 0.00 -0.11 -0.01 0.33 0.73 0.67 0.81 1.00 Emerging Markets Corporate Bonds Emerging Markets Corporate Bonds 3.70 4.78 15.19 4.30 -0.06 -0.13 -0.25 -0.31 -0.19 0.23 0.90 0.91 0.97 0.76 1.00 Brazilian Equity Brazilian Equity 7.10 9.19 21.69 6.60 -0.12 -0.06 0.38 0.51 0.38 0.02 -0.44 -0.31 -0.38 -0.17 -0.41 1.00 U.S. Large Cap U.S. Large Cap 3.10 4.34 16.23 5.00 -0.04 -0.17 -0.33 -0.30 -0.22 -0.03 0.57 0.77 0.67 0.63 0.70 -0.08 1.00 European Large Cap European Large Cap 5.40 6.64 16.43 6.70 -0.07 -0.18 -0.18 -0.15 -0.07 0.03 0.42 0.62 0.53 0.61 0.53 0.15 0.84 1.00 Japanese Equity Japanese Equity 5.50 6.72 16.31 6.60 -0.04 -0.17 -0.26 -0.28 -0.20 -0.01 0.60 0.70 0.64 0.64 0.68 -0.14 0.77 0.71 1.00 Chinese Domestic Equity Chinese Domestic Equity 6.50 10.39 30.12 9.50 -0.06 -0.01 -0.08 -0.05 -0.02 -0.01 0.25 0.33 0.30 0.27 0.33 0.11 0.39 0.36 0.33 1.00 EQUITIES AC World Equity AC World Equity 4.10 5.11 14.67 5.90 -0.06 -0.20 -0.26 -0.21 -0.14 0.01 0.52 0.73 0.62 0.65 0.64 0.08 0.96 0.94 0.80 0.43 1.00 AC Asia ex-Japan Equity AC Asia ex-Japan Equity 6.10 7.27 15.94 8.60 -0.14 -0.15 -0.14 -0.04 -0.01 0.11 0.36 0.48 0.39 0.51 0.40 0.29 0.64 0.75 0.56 0.55 0.78 1.00 Emerging Markets Equity Emerging Markets Equity 6.20 7.19 14.66 8.60 -0.13 -0.16 -0.08 0.04 0.04 0.09 0.24 0.40 0.31 0.48 0.31 0.47 0.62 0.77 0.51 0.49 0.77 0.96 1.00 Private Equity Private Equity 6.80 8.42 18.96 8.20 0.11 -0.13 -0.47 -0.36 -0.22 -0.22 0.40 0.71 0.58 0.47 0.62 -0.12 0.78 0.75 0.63 0.44 0.80 0.67 0.63 1.00 U.S. REITs U.S. REITs 5.50 6.85 17.14 5.40 -0.03 -0.07 -0.15 -0.13 -0.05 0.25 0.52 0.66 0.56 0.58 0.53 -0.05 0.74 0.65 0.55 0.15 0.72 0.50 0.47 0.51 1.00 Brazilian Hedge Funds (Multimercado) Brazilian Hedge Funds (Multimercado) 8.90 8.93 2.72 9.00 0.09 0.21 0.41 0.48 0.54 0.04 -0.10 -0.04 -0.05 -0.01 -0.06 0.46 -0.01 0.14 0.03 0.13 0.09 0.18 0.26 0.03 -0.06 1.00 Diversified Hedge Funds Diversified Hedge Funds 2.30 3.53 16.08 3.90 -0.01 -0.13 -0.45 -0.48 -0.36 -0.03 0.80 0.84 0.84 0.63 0.88 -0.53 0.70 0.48 0.68 0.33 0.61 0.33 0.23 0.71 0.42 -0.13 1.00 Commodities ALTERNATIVES Commodities 1.30 2.20 13.68 1.90 -0.01 -0.20 -0.31 -0.22 -0.23 -0.10 0.34 0.46 0.42 0.38 0.46 -0.09 0.47 0.45 0.38 0.20 0.49 0.35 0.36 0.50 0.27 0.01 0.47 1.00 Gold Gold 1.90 3.65 19.27 2.40 -0.07 -0.10 -0.03 -0.11 -0.08 0.28 0.57 0.42 0.56 0.52 0.56 -0.28 0.22 0.13 0.24 0.20 0.19 0.14 0.08 0.18 0.17 -0.05 0.51 0.48 1.00 2021 LONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT FOR INSTITUTIONAL / WHOLESALE / PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION PORTFOLIO INSIGHTS J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT’S LONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS are developed each year by our Assumptions Committee, a multi-asset class team of senior investors and strategists from across the firm. The Committee relies on the input and expertise of a range of portfolio managers and product specialists, striving to ensure that the analysis is consistent across asset classes. As a final step in the process, the team, along with senior leaders at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, conducts a rigorous review of the proposed assumptions and their underlying rationale. A wide range of investors use our capital market assumptions to ensure that investment policies and decisions are based on real-world, consistent views and can be tested under a variety of market scenarios. NOT FOR RETAIL DISTRIBUTION: This communication has been prepared exclusively for institutional, wholesale, professional clients and qualified investors only, as defined by local laws and regulations.
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