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ENERGY SAFETY NETS BRAZIL CASE STUDY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Energy Safety Nets: Brazil Case Study was The research team acknowledges the contri- researched and written by partners at the Cen- butions to this work of the following workshop tre for Energy and Environmental Economics attendees and key interviewees: COPPE/UFRJ (Cenergia Lab), COPPE, Universidade Federal (Carlos Henrique Duarte), Cenergia/UFRJ (Talita do Rio de Janeiro (www.ppe.ufrj.br), with the Borges Cruz, Paula Borges, Mariane Zotin, Gerd help of Antonella Mazzone, from the Oxford Abrantes Angelkorte, Leticia Magalar de Souza University Centre for the Environment, Univer- and Rafael Garaffa), Institute of Applied Eco- sity of Oxford. The lead researcher from COPPE nomic Research – IPEA (Elaine Christina Licio), was Roberto Schaeffer ([email protected]), Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency – ANEEL supported by a team that included Alexandre (Mauricio Lopes Tavares), Electric Energy Re- Salem Szklo, André Frossard Pereira de Lucena search Center – CEPEL (Márcio Gianini), Energy and Régis Rathmann. Research Company – EPE (Thiago Pastorelli Rod- rigues), Ministry of Social Development – MDS We acknowledge with gratitude the financial (Denise Direito), Frente por uma Nova Política support provided by the Wallace Global Fund. Energética (Joilson Costa). This report is based on research jointly implemented by partners at the Cenergia Lab, the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) and Catholic Agency for Overseas Development (CA- FOD). The research in Brazil is part of a broader program of energy safety nets research also carried out in Ghana, India, Indonesia, Kenya and Mexico funded by Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) as part of its People-Centered Accelerator work program. ENERGY SAFETY NETS | BRAZIL CASE STUDY 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 2 LIST OF FIGURES 4 LIST OF TABLES 5 ABBREVIATIONS 6 MAP OF BRAZIL 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 INTRODUCTION 11 BACKGROUND 12 The Brazil case study 12 ENERGY ACCESS IN BRAZIL – A CONTEXTUAL OVERVIEW 14 THE DESIGN, IMPLEMENTATION AND EVOLUTION OF BOLSA FAMÍLIA, LUZ PARA TODOS AND TARIFA SOCIAL 17 BOLSA FAMÍLIA 18 Separate ministries provide separate safety nets (mid-1990s to 2003/4) 18 Integration into Bolsa Família 19 LUZ PARA TODOS 22 Electricity access prior to Luz para Todos 22 Electricity sector reform and the launch of Luz para Todos 23 The limitations of grid extension for providing electricity access 24 Shifting focus to prioritize those left furthest behind 26 TARIFA SOCIAL 26 The history of subsidized electricity consumption 26 A volume-differentiated tariff that varies by region and beneficiary group 27 BOLSA FAMÍLIA, LUZ PARA TODOS AND TARIFA SOCIAL: IMPACTS AND INSIGHTS 29 BOLSA FAMÍLIA AND THE IMPACTS OF THE LPG ALLOWANCE 30 Poverty reduction 30 Challenges of subsidizing energy access within Bolsa Família 30 ENERGY SAFETY NETS | BRAZIL CASE STUDY 3 The value of Bolsa Família has not kept pace with the cost of LPG 31 Impact of the increase in LPG price on energy access 33 A lack of awareness of social protection programs by beneficiaries may hamper the programs’ impact 34 THE IMPACTS OF LUZ PARA TODOS AND TARIFA SOCIAL ON PROMOTING ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY 35 Luz para Todos: delivery of near-universal electricity access 35 Tarifa Social has supported consumption for the poorest, but not for all poor groups 35 THE GENDERED IMPACTS OF ENERGY SAFETY NETS IN BRAZIL 36 CONCLUSIONS 37 SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 38 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 39 REFERENCES 40 Endnotes 43 COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER 44 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Brazil: HDI values by region (2010) 13 Figure 2: Brazil’s progress towards achieving SDG7 16 Figure 3: Timeline: Introduction of Social Policies in Brazil, 1995-2011 20 Figure 4: Population with access to electricity, 1960-2000 22 Figure 5: National Grid Coverage 24 Figure 6: Access to Electricity by State, 2010 25 Figure 7: Evolution of poverty in Brazil 30 Figure 8: Real price variation of LPG to final user by region in Brazil, 2007-2016 32 Figure 9: Residential consumption of firewood and LPG in Brazil, 2008-2017 33 ENERGY SAFETY NETS | BRAZIL CASE STUDY 4 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Relevant information about Brazil 15 Table 2: The composition of Bolsa Família 19 Table 3: Tarifa Social for low-income households 27 Table 4: Tarifa Social for specific groups 28 Table 5: Nominal price of LPG and value of Bolsa Família 31 Table 6: Regulated power consumption by end use sector (GWh) 35 ENERGY SAFETY NETS | BRAZIL CASE STUDY 5 ABBREVIATIONS ANEEL Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency) BF Programa Bolsa Família (Family Allowance Program) BPC Benefício Assistencial ao Idoso e à Pessoa com Deficiência (Benefit for Elderly and Disabled People) CAD Cadastro Único para Programas Sociais (Single Registry for Social Programs) CAFOD Catholic Agency for Overseas Development CCC Conta de Consumo Combustível (Account for Cross-Subsidization) CCC-ISOL Fossil Fuels Consumption Account of Isolated Systems CDE Conta de Desenvolvimento Energético (Account for Energy Development) CEPEL Centro de Pesquisa em Energia Elétrica (Electric Energy Research Center) COPPE/UFRJ Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro CRAS Social Assistance Office EPE Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (Energy Research Company) HDI Human Development Index IBGE Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) IEA International Energy Agency IPEA Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Institute of Applied Economic Research) LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas LpT Programa Luz para Todos (Light for All Program) MCTIC Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações (Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovations and Communications) MDS Ministério do Desenvolvimento Social (Ministry of Social Development) MMA Ministério do Meio Ambiente (Ministry of Environment) MME Ministério de Minas e Energia (Ministry of Mines and Energy) NGO Non-governmental Organization ONS Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (Brazilian´s Energy System Operator) ENERGY SAFETY NETS | BRAZIL CASE STUDY 6 PRODEEM Brazilian Program for Rural Electrification Using Photovoltaics RF Person Responsible for a Family Unit within CAD SIN Sistema Interligado Nacional de Energia Elétrica (National Interconnected System) TS Programa Tarifa Social (Social Tariff Program) VG Vale Gás (Gas Assistance Program) A note on currency The Brazilian real (Portuguese: real, pl. reais; sign: R$; code: BRL) is the official currency of Brazil. Cur- rency conversions were carried out using year-averaged values available from the World Bank/IMF (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?locations=BR). If a specific year was available from the context, this was used, otherwise the most recent data (i.e. 2018) were used. ENERGY SAFETY NETS | BRAZIL CASE STUDY 7 MAP OF BRAZIL Roraima Amapá Amazonas Maranhão Pará Ceará Rio Grande do Norte Paraíba Piauí Pernambuco Acre Alagoas Tocantins R Sergipe Bahia Mato Grosso Distrito Federal Goiás Minas Gerais E Mato Grosso Santo do Sul São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Paraná Santa Catarina Rio Grande do Sul ENERGY SAFETY NETS | BRAZIL CASE STUDY 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This research aims to provide guidance for policy- fordability for poor and vulnerable households. It and decision-makers, by identifying measures in has expanded rapidly and more than one in ten of Brazil that have been successful in enabling very all households currently benefit from Tarifa Social poor people to access modern energy services to some degree. The volume-differentiated tariff and exploring the reasons for their success and applies discounts to the energy bills of households challenges encountered. Its findings are based on enrolled in the Cadastro Único (CAD), the unified quantitative and qualitative analyses of three pro- gateway registry for social programs. An analysis of grams that directly and indirectly impact the ac- consumption levels by poor households suggests cess and consumption of modern energy sources: that Tarifa Social has largely insulated electricity Luz para Todos (Light for All) and Tarifa Social (So- consumption in low-consuming poor households cial Tariff) for electricity, and Bolsa Família (Family from the recent economic downturn. However, Allowance) for LPG for cleaner cooking. the same analysis shows that the scheme would need to be modified to adequately support poor Luz para Todos was launched in 2003 to extend ac- households to consume more than very basic lev- cess to electricity connections in rural and remote els of electricity. areas of Brazil. Like Tarifa Social, it is supported by cross-subsidies funded via levies on consumer In 2003, the Brazilian Government launched the electricity bills. Through successive iterations, the Bolsa Família integrated cash transfer to bring program has focused on connecting households together support previously provided by 12 indi- and communities using a prioritization scheme vidual social assistance programs. This included that attempts to ensure the most disadvantaged support for LPG for cooking under the Vale Gás communities are connected first. Although the and Auxílio-Gás programs. Bolsa Família also vast majority of the unconnected households are uses the Cadastro Único to identify recipients located in regions of the country scoring low on and represents an important resource for families the Human Development Index (HDI), the scheme that has successfully
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  • Brazilian Real

    Brazilian Real

    FOR INSTITUTIONAL / WHOLESALE / PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION PORTFOLIO INSIGHTS 2021 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 25th Annual Edition | Assumptions matrix: Brazilian real Time-tested projections to build stronger portfolios BRAZILIAN REAL ASSUMPTIONS 2021 ESTIMATES AND CORRELATIONS COMPOUND RETURN 2020 (%) BRAZILIAN REAL ASSUMPTIONS Note: All estimates on this page are in Brazilian real terms. Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative ANNUALIZED VOLATILITY (%) optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations to all of these asset classes and strategies. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on this information is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise ARITHMETIC RETURN 2021 (%) of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only–they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes COMPOUND RETURN 2021 (%) only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions Brazilian Inflation constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Brazilian Inflation 4.30 4.30 1.00 4.50 1.00 This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice.