Theorizing Probability Distribution in Applied Statistics
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Mathematical Statistics
Mathematical Statistics MAS 713 Chapter 1.2 Previous subchapter 1 What is statistics ? 2 The statistical process 3 Population and samples 4 Random sampling Questions? Mathematical Statistics (MAS713) Ariel Neufeld 2 / 70 This subchapter Descriptive Statistics 1.2.1 Introduction 1.2.2 Types of variables 1.2.3 Graphical representations 1.2.4 Descriptive measures Mathematical Statistics (MAS713) Ariel Neufeld 3 / 70 1.2 Descriptive Statistics 1.2.1 Introduction Introduction As we said, statistics is the art of learning from data However, statistical data, obtained from surveys, experiments, or any series of measurements, are often so numerous that they are virtually useless unless they are condensed ; data should be presented in ways that facilitate their interpretation and subsequent analysis Naturally enough, the aspect of statistics which deals with organising, describing and summarising data is called descriptive statistics Mathematical Statistics (MAS713) Ariel Neufeld 4 / 70 1.2 Descriptive Statistics 1.2.2 Types of variables Types of variables Mathematical Statistics (MAS713) Ariel Neufeld 5 / 70 1.2 Descriptive Statistics 1.2.2 Types of variables Types of variables The range of available descriptive tools for a given data set depends on the type of the considered variable There are essentially two types of variables : 1 categorical (or qualitative) variables : take a value that is one of several possible categories (no numerical meaning) Ex. : gender, hair color, field of study, political affiliation, status, ... 2 numerical (or quantitative) -
Efficient Estimation of Parameters of the Negative Binomial Distribution
E±cient Estimation of Parameters of the Negative Binomial Distribution V. SAVANI AND A. A. ZHIGLJAVSKY Department of Mathematics, Cardi® University, Cardi®, CF24 4AG, U.K. e-mail: SavaniV@cardi®.ac.uk, ZhigljavskyAA@cardi®.ac.uk (Corresponding author) Abstract In this paper we investigate a class of moment based estimators, called power method estimators, which can be almost as e±cient as maximum likelihood estima- tors and achieve a lower asymptotic variance than the standard zero term method and method of moments estimators. We investigate di®erent methods of implementing the power method in practice and examine the robustness and e±ciency of the power method estimators. Key Words: Negative binomial distribution; estimating parameters; maximum likelihood method; e±ciency of estimators; method of moments. 1 1. The Negative Binomial Distribution 1.1. Introduction The negative binomial distribution (NBD) has appeal in the modelling of many practical applications. A large amount of literature exists, for example, on using the NBD to model: animal populations (see e.g. Anscombe (1949), Kendall (1948a)); accident proneness (see e.g. Greenwood and Yule (1920), Arbous and Kerrich (1951)) and consumer buying behaviour (see e.g. Ehrenberg (1988)). The appeal of the NBD lies in the fact that it is a simple two parameter distribution that arises in various di®erent ways (see e.g. Anscombe (1950), Johnson, Kotz, and Kemp (1992), Chapter 5) often allowing the parameters to have a natural interpretation (see Section 1.2). Furthermore, the NBD can be implemented as a distribution within stationary processes (see e.g. Anscombe (1950), Kendall (1948b)) thereby increasing the modelling potential of the distribution. -
Relationships Among Some Univariate Distributions
IIE Transactions (2005) 37, 651–656 Copyright C “IIE” ISSN: 0740-817X print / 1545-8830 online DOI: 10.1080/07408170590948512 Relationships among some univariate distributions WHEYMING TINA SONG Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, Republic of China E-mail: [email protected], wheyming [email protected] Received March 2004 and accepted August 2004 The purpose of this paper is to graphically illustrate the parametric relationships between pairs of 35 univariate distribution families. The families are organized into a seven-by-five matrix and the relationships are illustrated by connecting related families with arrows. A simplified matrix, showing only 25 families, is designed for student use. These relationships provide rapid access to information that must otherwise be found from a time-consuming search of a large number of sources. Students, teachers, and practitioners who model random processes will find the relationships in this article useful and insightful. 1. Introduction 2. A seven-by-five matrix An understanding of probability concepts is necessary Figure 1 illustrates 35 univariate distributions in 35 if one is to gain insights into systems that can be rectangle-like entries. The row and column numbers are modeled as random processes. From an applications labeled on the left and top of Fig. 1, respectively. There are point of view, univariate probability distributions pro- 10 discrete distributions, shown in the first two rows, and vide an important foundation in probability theory since 25 continuous distributions. Five commonly used sampling they are the underpinnings of the most-used models in distributions are listed in the third row. -
This History of Modern Mathematical Statistics Retraces Their Development
BOOK REVIEWS GORROOCHURN Prakash, 2016, Classic Topics on the History of Modern Mathematical Statistics: From Laplace to More Recent Times, Hoboken, NJ, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 754 p. This history of modern mathematical statistics retraces their development from the “Laplacean revolution,” as the author so rightly calls it (though the beginnings are to be found in Bayes’ 1763 essay(1)), through the mid-twentieth century and Fisher’s major contribution. Up to the nineteenth century the book covers the same ground as Stigler’s history of statistics(2), though with notable differences (see infra). It then discusses developments through the first half of the twentieth century: Fisher’s synthesis but also the renewal of Bayesian methods, which implied a return to Laplace. Part I offers an in-depth, chronological account of Laplace’s approach to probability, with all the mathematical detail and deductions he drew from it. It begins with his first innovative articles and concludes with his philosophical synthesis showing that all fields of human knowledge are connected to the theory of probabilities. Here Gorrouchurn raises a problem that Stigler does not, that of induction (pp. 102-113), a notion that gives us a better understanding of probability according to Laplace. The term induction has two meanings, the first put forward by Bacon(3) in 1620, the second by Hume(4) in 1748. Gorroochurn discusses only the second. For Bacon, induction meant discovering the principles of a system by studying its properties through observation and experimentation. For Hume, induction was mere enumeration and could not lead to certainty. Laplace followed Bacon: “The surest method which can guide us in the search for truth, consists in rising by induction from phenomena to laws and from laws to forces”(5). -
Univariate and Multivariate Skewness and Kurtosis 1
Running head: UNIVARIATE AND MULTIVARIATE SKEWNESS AND KURTOSIS 1 Univariate and Multivariate Skewness and Kurtosis for Measuring Nonnormality: Prevalence, Influence and Estimation Meghan K. Cain, Zhiyong Zhang, and Ke-Hai Yuan University of Notre Dame Author Note This research is supported by a grant from the U.S. Department of Education (R305D140037). However, the contents of the paper do not necessarily represent the policy of the Department of Education, and you should not assume endorsement by the Federal Government. Correspondence concerning this article can be addressed to Meghan Cain ([email protected]), Ke-Hai Yuan ([email protected]), or Zhiyong Zhang ([email protected]), Department of Psychology, University of Notre Dame, 118 Haggar Hall, Notre Dame, IN 46556. UNIVARIATE AND MULTIVARIATE SKEWNESS AND KURTOSIS 2 Abstract Nonnormality of univariate data has been extensively examined previously (Blanca et al., 2013; Micceri, 1989). However, less is known of the potential nonnormality of multivariate data although multivariate analysis is commonly used in psychological and educational research. Using univariate and multivariate skewness and kurtosis as measures of nonnormality, this study examined 1,567 univariate distriubtions and 254 multivariate distributions collected from authors of articles published in Psychological Science and the American Education Research Journal. We found that 74% of univariate distributions and 68% multivariate distributions deviated from normal distributions. In a simulation study using typical values of skewness and kurtosis that we collected, we found that the resulting type I error rates were 17% in a t-test and 30% in a factor analysis under some conditions. Hence, we argue that it is time to routinely report skewness and kurtosis along with other summary statistics such as means and variances. -
Applied Time Series Analysis
Applied Time Series Analysis SS 2018 February 12, 2018 Dr. Marcel Dettling Institute for Data Analysis and Process Design Zurich University of Applied Sciences CH-8401 Winterthur Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 PURPOSE 1 1.2 EXAMPLES 2 1.3 GOALS IN TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 8 2 MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS 11 2.1 DEFINITION OF A TIME SERIES 11 2.2 STATIONARITY 11 2.3 TESTING STATIONARITY 13 3 TIME SERIES IN R 15 3.1 TIME SERIES CLASSES 15 3.2 DATES AND TIMES IN R 17 3.3 DATA IMPORT 21 4 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS 23 4.1 VISUALIZATION 23 4.2 TRANSFORMATIONS 26 4.3 DECOMPOSITION 29 4.4 AUTOCORRELATION 50 4.5 PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION 66 5 STATIONARY TIME SERIES MODELS 69 5.1 WHITE NOISE 69 5.2 ESTIMATING THE CONDITIONAL MEAN 70 5.3 AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS 71 5.4 MOVING AVERAGE MODELS 85 5.5 ARMA(P,Q) MODELS 93 6 SARIMA AND GARCH MODELS 99 6.1 ARIMA MODELS 99 6.2 SARIMA MODELS 105 6.3 ARCH/GARCH MODELS 109 7 TIME SERIES REGRESSION 113 7.1 WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? 113 7.2 FINDING CORRELATED ERRORS 117 7.3 COCHRANE‐ORCUTT METHOD 124 7.4 GENERALIZED LEAST SQUARES 125 7.5 MISSING PREDICTOR VARIABLES 131 8 FORECASTING 137 8.1 STATIONARY TIME SERIES 138 8.2 SERIES WITH TREND AND SEASON 145 8.3 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING 152 9 MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 161 9.1 PRACTICAL EXAMPLE 161 9.2 CROSS CORRELATION 165 9.3 PREWHITENING 168 9.4 TRANSFER FUNCTION MODELS 170 10 SPECTRAL ANALYSIS 175 10.1 DECOMPOSING IN THE FREQUENCY DOMAIN 175 10.2 THE SPECTRUM 179 10.3 REAL WORLD EXAMPLE 186 11 STATE SPACE MODELS 187 11.1 STATE SPACE FORMULATION 187 11.2 AR PROCESSES WITH MEASUREMENT NOISE 188 11.3 DYNAMIC LINEAR MODELS 191 ATSA 1 Introduction 1 Introduction 1.1 Purpose Time series data, i.e. -
Mathematical Statistics the Sample Distribution of the Median
Course Notes for Math 162: Mathematical Statistics The Sample Distribution of the Median Adam Merberg and Steven J. Miller February 15, 2008 Abstract We begin by introducing the concept of order statistics and ¯nding the density of the rth order statistic of a sample. We then consider the special case of the density of the median and provide some examples. We conclude with some appendices that describe some of the techniques and background used. Contents 1 Order Statistics 1 2 The Sample Distribution of the Median 2 3 Examples and Exercises 4 A The Multinomial Distribution 5 B Big-Oh Notation 6 C Proof That With High Probability jX~ ¡ ¹~j is Small 6 D Stirling's Approximation Formula for n! 7 E Review of the exponential function 7 1 Order Statistics Suppose that the random variables X1;X2;:::;Xn constitute a sample of size n from an in¯nite population with continuous density. Often it will be useful to reorder these random variables from smallest to largest. In reordering the variables, we will also rename them so that Y1 is a random variable whose value is the smallest of the Xi, Y2 is the next smallest, and th so on, with Yn the largest of the Xi. Yr is called the r order statistic of the sample. In considering order statistics, it is naturally convenient to know their probability density. We derive an expression for the distribution of the rth order statistic as in [MM]. Theorem 1.1. For a random sample of size n from an in¯nite population having values x and density f(x), the probability th density of the r order statistic Yr is given by ·Z ¸ ·Z ¸ n! yr r¡1 1 n¡r gr(yr) = f(x) dx f(yr) f(x) dx : (1.1) (r ¡ 1)!(n ¡ r)! ¡1 yr Proof. -
Characterization of the Bivariate Negative Binomial Distribution James E
Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science Volume 21 Article 17 1967 Characterization of the Bivariate Negative Binomial Distribution James E. Dunn University of Arkansas, Fayetteville Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/jaas Part of the Other Applied Mathematics Commons Recommended Citation Dunn, James E. (1967) "Characterization of the Bivariate Negative Binomial Distribution," Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science: Vol. 21 , Article 17. Available at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/jaas/vol21/iss1/17 This article is available for use under the Creative Commons license: Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-ND 4.0). Users are able to read, download, copy, print, distribute, search, link to the full texts of these articles, or use them for any other lawful purpose, without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author. This Article is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UARK. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science by an authorized editor of ScholarWorks@UARK. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected]. Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science, Vol. 21 [1967], Art. 17 77 Arkansas Academy of Science Proceedings, Vol.21, 1967 CHARACTERIZATION OF THE BIVARIATE NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION James E. Dunn INTRODUCTION The univariate negative binomial distribution (also known as Pascal's distribution and the Polya-Eggenberger distribution under vari- ous reparameterizations) has recently been characterized by Bartko (1962). Its broad acceptance and applicability in such diverse areas as medicine, ecology, and engineering is evident from the references listed there. -
Nonparametric Multivariate Kurtosis and Tailweight Measures
Nonparametric Multivariate Kurtosis and Tailweight Measures Jin Wang1 Northern Arizona University and Robert Serfling2 University of Texas at Dallas November 2004 – final preprint version, to appear in Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, 2005 1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona 86011-5717, USA. Email: [email protected]. 2Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas 75083- 0688, USA. Email: [email protected]. Website: www.utdallas.edu/∼serfling. Support by NSF Grant DMS-0103698 is gratefully acknowledged. Abstract For nonparametric exploration or description of a distribution, the treatment of location, spread, symmetry and skewness is followed by characterization of kurtosis. Classical moment- based kurtosis measures the dispersion of a distribution about its “shoulders”. Here we con- sider quantile-based kurtosis measures. These are robust, are defined more widely, and dis- criminate better among shapes. A univariate quantile-based kurtosis measure of Groeneveld and Meeden (1984) is extended to the multivariate case by representing it as a transform of a dispersion functional. A family of such kurtosis measures defined for a given distribution and taken together comprises a real-valued “kurtosis functional”, which has intuitive appeal as a convenient two-dimensional curve for description of the kurtosis of the distribution. Several multivariate distributions in any dimension may thus be compared with respect to their kurtosis in a single two-dimensional plot. Important properties of the new multivariate kurtosis measures are established. For example, for elliptically symmetric distributions, this measure determines the distribution within affine equivalence. Related tailweight measures, influence curves, and asymptotic behavior of sample versions are also discussed. -
Univariate Statistics Summary
Univariate Statistics Summary Further Maths Univariate Statistics Summary Types of Data Data can be classified as categorical or numerical. Categorical data are observations or records that are arranged according to category. For example: the favourite colour of a class of students; the mode of transport that each student uses to get to school; the rating of a TV program, either “a great program”, “average program” or “poor program”. Postal codes such as “3011”, “3015” etc. Numerical data are observations based on counting or measurement. Calculations can be performed on numerical data. There are two main types of numerical data Discrete data, which takes only fixed values, usually whole numbers. Discrete data often arises as the result of counting items. For example: the number of siblings each student has, the number of pets a set of randomly chosen people have or the number of passengers in cars that pass an intersection. Continuous data can take any value in a given range. It is usually a measurement. For example: the weights of students in a class. The weight of each student could be measured to the nearest tenth of a kg. Weights of 84.8kg and 67.5kg would be recorded. Other examples of continuous data include the time taken to complete a task or the heights of a group of people. Exercise 1 Decide whether the following data is categorical or numerical. If numerical decide if the data is discrete or continuous. 1. 2. Page 1 of 21 Univariate Statistics Summary 3. 4. Solutions 1a Numerical-discrete b. Categorical c. Categorical d. -
Why Distinguish Between Statistics and Mathematical Statistics – the Case of Swedish Academia
Why distinguish between statistics and mathematical statistics { the case of Swedish academia Peter Guttorp1 and Georg Lindgren2 1Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle 2Mathematical Statistics, Lund University, Lund 2017/10/11 Abstract A separation between the academic subjects statistics and mathematical statistics has existed in Sweden almost as long as there have been statistics professors. The same distinction has not been maintained in other countries. Why has it been kept so for long in Sweden, and what consequences may it have had? In May 2015 it was 100 years since Mathematical Statistics was formally estab- lished as an academic discipline at a Swedish university where Statistics had existed since the turn of the century. We give an account of the debate in Lund and elsewhere about this division dur- ing the first decades after 1900 and present two of its leading personalities. The Lund University astronomer (and mathematical statistician) C.V.L. Charlier was a lead- ing proponent for a position in mathematical statistics at the university. Charlier's adversary in the debate was Pontus Fahlbeck, professor in political science and statis- tics, who reserved the word statistics for \statistics as a social science". Charlier not only secured the first academic position in Sweden in mathematical statistics for his former Ph.D. student Sven Wicksell, but he also demonstrated that a mathematical statistician can be influential in matters of state, finance, as well as in different nat- ural sciences. Fahlbeck saw mathematical statistics as a set of tools that sometimes could be useful in his brand of statistics. After a summary of the organisational, educational, and scientific growth of the statistical sciences in Sweden that has taken place during the last 50 years, we discuss what effects the Charlier-Fahlbeck divergence might have had on this development. -
Field Guide to Continuous Probability Distributions
Field Guide to Continuous Probability Distributions Gavin E. Crooks v 1.0.0 2019 G. E. Crooks – Field Guide to Probability Distributions v 1.0.0 Copyright © 2010-2019 Gavin E. Crooks ISBN: 978-1-7339381-0-5 http://threeplusone.com/fieldguide Berkeley Institute for Theoretical Sciences (BITS) typeset on 2019-04-10 with XeTeX version 0.99999 fonts: Trump Mediaeval (text), Euler (math) 271828182845904 2 G. E. Crooks – Field Guide to Probability Distributions Preface: The search for GUD A common problem is that of describing the probability distribution of a single, continuous variable. A few distributions, such as the normal and exponential, were discovered in the 1800’s or earlier. But about a century ago the great statistician, Karl Pearson, realized that the known probabil- ity distributions were not sufficient to handle all of the phenomena then under investigation, and set out to create new distributions with useful properties. During the 20th century this process continued with abandon and a vast menagerie of distinct mathematical forms were discovered and invented, investigated, analyzed, rediscovered and renamed, all for the purpose of de- scribing the probability of some interesting variable. There are hundreds of named distributions and synonyms in current usage. The apparent diver- sity is unending and disorienting. Fortunately, the situation is less confused than it might at first appear. Most common, continuous, univariate, unimodal distributions can be orga- nized into a small number of distinct families, which are all special cases of a single Grand Unified Distribution. This compendium details these hun- dred or so simple distributions, their properties and their interrelations.