H.S.Or L & C.VOLX

PLR'TE I H.S.Or L & C.VOLX. 1 TKANSACTIONS. ON THE POPULATION OF LANCASHIRE AND CHESHIRE, AND ITS LOCAL DISTRIBUTION DURING THE FIFTY YEARS 1801-51. By J. T. Danson, V.P., and T. A. Welton, Bags. (RBAD lOia DECEMBKB, 1857.) PART SECOND. IN the first part of this paper we observed that the two counties, as they are now combined by the Registrar General, to form what is termed the " North Western division" of England and Wales, have an area of 1,874,000 acres. This is about 2928 square miles. And as England and Wales contain about 57,800 square miles, our own district comprises about |j| one-twentieth part of that area. The population of the N.W. division, we <,' also observed, was in 1851 about two millions and a half; and that of J | England and Wales having been, at the same date, very nearly eighteen V; millions, it follows that upon one-twentieth of the area, we had then about *Kli * one-seventh of the population of this, the most densely peopled part of the United Kingdom. The proportion is probably now different. During the fifty years in view, our section of the population had increased by 185 per cent., while that of England and Wales, on the whole, had increased only by about 100 per cent. We have no reason to suppose that these rates have, during the last six years, been materially changed. In round numbers, then, the inhabitants of Lancashire and Cheshire are probably now increasing in number at an annual rate, exceeding that of the country, as a whole, in the proportion of three to two.* Further, at the beginning of the century (1801,) the Town population of our district, treating as such that portion of it dwelling in towns of 2000 185 Per cent, in 60 years is two and one-tenth per cent, per annum. 101 Do. do. one and four-tenths do. inhabitants and upwards, formed only about two parts in five of the whole. In 1851 such town population formed, in number, two parts in three of the whole. The average annual rate of increase during the half-century on town population was 3-2 per cent., and that on country population only I'O per cent. In reference to the town population of England and Wales, as we have not made so careful an estimate, we cannot speak with so much accuracy; but we believe the statements we are about to make are near enough to the truth for any practical purpose. There were in the whole country, in 1801, not more than three hundred towns such as are included in our definition, with an aggregate population of about three millions: being about one-third of the total number of inhabitants. In 1851, the number of such towns had risen to nearly five hundred, with nearly eight millions and three-quarters of inhabitants: being about half the entire population at that period. This increased proportion of town population was not evenly distributed over the whole country. In the divisions numbered in the last census I. to V. (including the south and east of England and the metropolis), the proportion of town population was,in 1801, about seven parts in eighteen; and in 1851, about nine parts in eighteen, or one half; while in the re maining six divisions (including the northern and midland counties, and Wales), the proportion was, in 1801, about five parts in eighteen, and had risen in 1851 to above eight parts in eighteen. In other words, the average annual rate of increase, during the half-century, in the whole country, was 2-2 per cent, on town population, and 0-9 per cent on country population. In the southern and eastern counties, it was l -9 per cent, on town population, and 0-8 per cent, on country population; and in the northern and midland counties, including Wales, it was 2'5 per cent, on town population, and 1-0 per cent, on country population. The proportions, as usual, vary more in single counties than in larger divisions of the country. Take, for example, Sussex, where the average annual ratios of increase on town and country population were respectively 8-7 and 0-8 per cent.; and Norfolk, where the corresponding figures were 1-4 and 0'7 per cent., respectively. It is proper to notice here, that, were the ratio of increase equal in all places, densely peopled country districts would still from time to time be brought under our definition of a " Town," by the mere effect of general progress ; and, consequently, there would always be a larger increase in the number of dwellers in towns, than in that of inhabitants of country districts. This circumstance, of course, accounts, in part, for the high rate at which the town population of this country is, in fact, increasing. But its share in the general effect is only moderate, and the greatest part of the difference between town and country rates is occasioned by the high degree of rapidity with which town populations generally increase. To prove that this is the case, a few figures will suffice. The population of the country districts, in 1801, which have in the suc ceeding half-century been covered by new towns, or the extension of those already existing, can scarcely be estimated at more (in 1801) than four hun dred thousand persons, and was probably considerably less. Adopting this number, however, we have a population of 3,400,000 then living on the area occupied in 1851 by about 8,750,000 persons, These figures give an average annual rate of increase of 1'9 per cent, on the inhabitants of those localities which were covered in 1851 with a town population, and of I'D per cent, on the population of the remainder of the country, showing that the rate of increase on the one has been nearly double that on the other. Treating the north-western division similarly, we find the corre sponding figures are 2'9 and 1'2 per cent., respectively, exhibiting a still greater difference. The causes which have produced this comparatively rapid increase of the population in our own district, and especially of that portion of it resident in towns, were briefly referred to in the first part of this paper. The necessity of confining what we have to say, in this second part, to such limits as may enable us to say it in a single evening, will prevent our entering upon any such examination of these causes as, for their importance, they deserve. One or two preliminary conclusions concerning them may, however, be accepted without much risk of error: as that they have been generated by the action of laws as certain and uniform in their operation as those recognised in any of the known sciences; and therefore that the same laws, so far as circumstances have permitted their exhibition, have been in action from the first gathering of mankind into a village, down to the present day. And, duly regarding the magnitude of the interests affected, we may also safely infer, that such knowledge of these laws as may be readily attainable is, in the present age, necessary to a right performance of the social duties of mankind, and especially of those attaching to the governments of the most densely peopled and most civilized countries; aud further, that the duty of recognising and acting under these laws, has hecome especially incum bent upon the people and government of England there being now collected on the soil of England the largest and densest masses of population, and, in the aggregate, the largest proportion of what is termed town-popula tion, ever yet brought together upon a similar area. The mental experience of mankind has well proved that there is but one trustworthy method of acquiring such knowledge: that we cannot com mence an enquiry into the nature of such laws as are here referred to, with any rational prospect of success, otherwise than by first ascertaining the facts indicating the course and character of their action. The present series of papers is, so far as we know, the first systematic effort in this direction; and it is obvious that the locality chosen is not only especially important, but is also especially favourable to such an enquiry. Already we have seen reason to infer, that the causes acting directly on the distribution of the population, in our own district at least, are mainly, if not wholly, of an industrial character: in other words, that the increas ing density of the population in this part of the island, as well as its local distribution over the surface, has reference to, and is governed by, the local facilities which have, so far, been made available, or apparent, for obtaining profit for capital, and wages for labour. Doubtless, there are other causes; but they would appear to be of a subordinate character, and to have a comparatively slight effect. And whatever the causes referred to what ever their number, variety, or comparative force, or whatever their particular range or tendency, or their relations to each other it is too strikingly apparent to admit of doubt, that they are, collectively, at, o* very near, the root of the changes in this district during the last half-century, which have made it more justly remarkable, in a productive and mercantile point of view, than any similar district throughout the world. But to the task before us. Whatever may be the duty, or the conduct, of the nation at large, or of the government, we cannot, as intelligent beings, and as members of this Society, witness these changes without desiring to know something more of them of what they have been, and of what they are likely to be than is apparent on the surface; and our first step towards gaining such knowledge, is a careful examination and comprehensive analysis of such records as we yet possess of the changes themselves.

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