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The Hayward Fault—Is It Due for a Repeat of the Powerful 1868 Earthquake?

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The Hayward Fault—Is It Due for a Repeat of the Powerful 1868 Earthquake? Understanding Earthquake Hazards in the San Francisco Bay Region The Hayward Fault—Is It Due for a Repeat of the Powerful 1868 Earthquake? n October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 Oearthquake struck the San Fran- cisco Bay area. Although the region was sparsely populated, the quake on the Hay- ward Fault was one of the most destruc- tive in California’s history. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studies show that similar Hayward Fault quakes have repeatedly jolted the region in the past and that the Strong shaking fault may be ready to produce another during the 1868 magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake. Such an Hayward Fault earthquake could unexpectedly change earthquake caused people’s lives and impact the Bay Area’s the second story of the Alameda County infrastructure and economy, but updated Courthouse in San building codes and retrofits, as well as Leandro to collapse (photo courtesy of the Bancroft Library, University of California). The inset planning, community training, and pre- photo shows the courthouse before the quake (photo courtesy of San Leandro Public Library). paredness, will help reduce the effects of The 1868 earthquake devastated several East Bay towns and caused widespread damage in a future Hayward Fault earthquake. the San Francisco Bay region. In the early morning of October 21, serious damage in Napa and Hollister. Numer- Santa RODGERS Rosa CREEK 80 1868, seismic waves from a power- ous witnesses reported seeing the ground AREA N OF MAP ful earthquake raced through the fog- move in waves. Shaking was felt as far away Napa shrouded San Francisco Bay area. as Nevada, and aftershocks rattled the Bay CALIF Frightened people ran out of their homes, Area for weeks. Even though the region was San Francisco Oakland and cattle and even fire-engine horses only sparsely populated at the time, the 1868 San Leandro panicked and bolted. Strong shaking quake killed about 30 people and caused great HAYWARDHayward lasted more than 40 seconds, devastating property damage. It still ranks as one of the Fremont S A 1868 several East Bay towns. Brick build- most destructive earthquakes in California’s N G San Jose R CALAVERAS ings, walls, and chimneys were also history, but this is not the end of the story. The E G O R SAN ANDREAS I shaken down in Oakland, San Francisco, Hayward Fault will rupture violently again, O Santa Rosa, and San Jose, and there was and perhaps soon. Major faults Hollister 0 20 MILES 101 Major earthquake faults in the San Francisco N Stadium Bay region. The section of the Hayward Fault Gulch that produced the 1868 Hayward earthquake is highlighted in yellow. Dot size indicates the present 0 500 1,000 FEET Hamilton relative population sizes of cities. 0 100 200 300 METERS A filtered vertical laser image, taken using a technique called light detection and ranging (LIDAR), of part of the Hayward Fault (red lines) in the City of Berkeley. The fault passes through the University of California Berkeley football stadium (left), and past earthquake movements have significantly offset Hamilton Gulch (center). Arrows show relative movement on the fault. U.S. Department of the Interior Fact Sheet 2018–3052, August 2018 U.S. Geological Survey Supersedes Fact Sheet 2008–3019 The Hayward Fault is Creeping The Hayward Fault is a near-vertical surface that allows two huge blocks of bedrock to move past each other in the eastern San Francisco Bay region. It is one of a number of “creeping” earthquake faults in the region, meaning the two sides of the fault are constantly moving past each other at a slow rate. Ample evidence for the creep of the fault is provided by roads, curbs, and buildings that are being progressively offset. U.S. Geological Survey and other scientists have shown that the rate of movement is about 1/5 inch (5 millimeters) per year. Creep gener- ally appears to be limited to the topmost 3 miles (5 km) of a fault plane, and below that depth, the fault is locked and building up stress. Creep and small earthquakes account for only about one-third of the long-term (thousands of years) movement on Creep (slow, steady movement) on the the Hayward Fault, and the remaining two-thirds must be released in large earth- Hayward Fault has offset this curb in the quakes like the 1868 event. city of Hayward. Scientists at the University of Interferometric satellite California, Berkeley, are using aperture radar, or InSAR, a technique called interfero- N uses repeated passes metric satellite aperture radar by satellites to record (InSAR), which uses repeat the change in distance satellite radar surveys of the between the satellite and Earth’s surface to monitor HAYWARD FAULT recognizable points on the creep along the Hayward ground (dots). This InSAR image of part of the East Fault. Comparing radar returns Fremont Bay clearly shows creep from the same points on the on the Hayward Fault. In ground over time reveals general, warm colors mean how rapidly the points are the points are moving to moving. This technique allows the southeast (closer to the scientists to determine which satellite), and cool colors parts of a fault are creeping mean the points are moving and at what rates, and which to the northwest (farther parts are locked all the way away). The color scale indicates the rate of this to the surface and thus may 0 1 2 3 MILES –10 0 10 movement in millimeters be capable of producing even per year (1 millimeter = 0 1 2 3 KILOMETERS stronger quakes. Millimeters per year 0.04 inch). The Earthquake of 1868 people were killed and property losses mission buildings were heavily damaged. were significant. Many brick walls, Oakland, a town of about 12,000 and The 1868 earthquake on the Hayward cornices, and other heavy architectural mainly wood-frame buildings, was much Fault capped a decade-long sequence of elements of buildings in the city fell, less heavily damaged than San Leandro seven increasingly strong quakes in the and the U.S. Custom House and several and Hayward. San Jose, a town of about Bay Area. Ground cracking caused by this other structures built on land reclaimed 9,000 that lies several miles south and earthquake was traced for 20 miles along from the former Yerba Buena Cove west of the fault trace, had few wrecked the Hayward Fault, from Warm Springs (today’s Financial District) sustained buildings but many fallen chimneys. in Fremont north to San Leandro. Histori- severe damage. However, as in 1906, cal land-survey data suggest that the fault well-constructed buildings on firm ground Understanding the 1868 Quake broke as far north as Berkeley, with an sustained much less damage. average horizontal offset of about 6 feet Towns in the East Bay suffered the Because seismographs had not yet (2 meters). most severe damage. Almost every build- been invented, there are no recordings Shaking from the 1868 quake was the ing in Hayward, then a town with about of the 1868 earthquake. Much of what strongest that the new towns and growing 500 residents, was wrecked or severely we know about the 1868 quake is docu- cities of the Bay Area had ever experi- damaged—few places have paid so dearly mented in a chapter of an important report enced. Until it was eclipsed by the great to have a fault named after them. At San on the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, 1906 earthquake, the 1868 earthquake Leandro, with a population of about 400, which was published in 1908. The chapter was known as the “great San Francisco the second floor of the Alameda County reviewed the descriptions of surface fault- quake.” The area of strongest shaking Courthouse collapsed, and many other ing, collected damage and felt reports, and covered about 1,000 square miles. In San buildings were destroyed. At Mission interviewed survivors of the earthquake. Francisco, the largest city on the west San Jose, in southern Fremont, the USGS and other scientists have used coast with a population of 150,000, five adobe church built in 1809 and other the 1908 report, as well as historical Similarity to the 1995 Kobe Earthquake Studies of past earthquakes allow scientists to fore- Tokushima N cast the effects of future quakes. A quake similar to Vallejo the anticipated next large Hayward Fault earthquake N may be the magnitude 6.9 earthquake that struck Richmond Concord Kobe, Japan, in 1995. The geography of Kobe, a port 1868 Rupture city built along the Nojima Fault on Osaka Bay, is strik- Sumoto Oakland ingly similar to that of the East Bay, and the Nojima San Francisco 1995 Rupture and the Hayward Faults have similar lengths and San Akashi types of movement. The 1995 Kobe quake and subse- Francisco quent fires caused more than 5,000 deaths. Shaking Bay Hayward Wakayama Osaka Bay and ground failures, including liquefaction (in which Kobe Fremont shaken sandy soils behave like a liquid and cannot support the weight of structures), devastated resi- dences and infrastructure. Damage to the port facili- 0 10 20 MILES 0 10 20 MILES San Jose ties in Kobe resulted in a permanent loss of business, 0 10 20 KILOMETERS 0 10 20 KILOMETERS Osaka because some shipping companies relocated to other 154 miles above undamaged ports in Japan. Many lower income areas The urban geographic settings of the Nojima Fault of Kobe, Japan, and the of Kobe were not rebuilt for more than a decade. Hayward Fault, California, are very similar, as were the lengths of rupture in their most recent strong earthquakes.
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