Thomas Brocher

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Thomas Brocher Bay Area Geophysical Society Seminar Series Thomas Brocher USGS November 19, 2018 4:00 PM McCone Hall 265, UC Berkeley The 150th Anniversary of the Damaging 1868 Hayward Earthquake: Why it Matters Abstract: October 21st marks the 150th anniversary of the damaging 1868 Hayward earthquake. USGS studies of the Hayward Fault reveal that it has produced 12 large earthquakes in the past 2000 years spaced from 100 to 220 years apart. The Hayward Fault is one of the most urbanized faults in the United States. So the expected large Hayward Fault earthquake will impact the entire San Francisco Bay Area. The odds of a damaging M6.7 earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years are nearly 3 out of 4. The effects of earthquakes can be mitigated through building codes, retrofits, planning, and training. Speaker Bio: Tom Brocher is a seismologist at the USGS Earthquake Science Center, in Menlo Park, where he has worked for 33 years after working briefly at the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. He served as Director of the Earthquake Science Center for several years and prior to that served as the USGS Coordinator for Northern California Earthquake Hazard Investigations. His interests include earthquake hazard assessment, earthquake mitigation, and earthquake preparedness. Tom served as chair of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance, a public/private non-profit organization seeking to increase public awareness of that earthquake and the hazards posed by the Hayward Fault. Tom has authored or co-authored 165 peer-reviewed publications and is a Fellow of the Geological Society of America. .
Recommended publications
  • New Empirical Relationships Among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement
    Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 84, No. 4, pp. 974-1002, August 1994 New Empirical Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement by Donald L. Wells and Kevin J. Coppersmith Abstract Source parameters for historical earthquakes worldwide are com­ piled to develop a series of empirical relationships among moment magnitude (M), surface rupture length, subsurface rupture length, downdip rupture width, rupture area, and maximum and average displacement per event. The resulting data base is a significant update of previous compilations and includes the ad­ ditional source parameters of seismic moment, moment magnitude, subsurface rupture length, downdip rupture width, and average surface displacement. Each source parameter is classified as reliable or unreliable, based on our evaluation of the accuracy of individual values. Only the reliable source parameters are used in the final analyses. In comparing source parameters, we note the fol­ lowing trends: (1) Generally, the length of rupture at the surface is equal to 75% of the subsurface rupture length; however, the ratio of surface rupture length to subsurface rupture length increases with magnitude; (2) the average surface dis­ placement per event is about one-half the maximum surface displacement per event; and (3) the average subsurface displacement on the fault plane is less than the maximum surface displacement but more than the average surface dis­ placement. Thus, for most earthquakes in this data base, slip on the fault plane at seismogenic depths is manifested by similar displacements at the surface. Log-linear regressions between earthquake magnitude and surface rupture length, subsurface rupture length, and rupture area are especially well correlated, show­ ing standard deviations of 0.25 to 0.35 magnitude units.
    [Show full text]
  • Geodetic Constraints on San Francisco Bay Area Fault Slip Rates and Potential Seismogenic Asperities on the Partially Creeping Hayward Fault Eileen L
    Masthead Logo Smith ScholarWorks Geosciences: Faculty Publications Geosciences 3-2012 Geodetic Constraints on San Francisco Bay Area Fault Slip Rates and Potential Seismogenic Asperities on the Partially Creeping Hayward Fault Eileen L. Evans Harvard University John P. Loveless Harvard University, [email protected] Brendan J. Meade Harvard University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.smith.edu/geo_facpubs Part of the Geology Commons Recommended Citation Evans, Eileen L.; Loveless, John P.; and Meade, Brendan J., "Geodetic Constraints on San Francisco Bay Area Fault Slip Rates and Potential Seismogenic Asperities on the Partially Creeping Hayward Fault" (2012). Geosciences: Faculty Publications, Smith College, Northampton, MA. https://scholarworks.smith.edu/geo_facpubs/21 This Article has been accepted for inclusion in Geosciences: Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of Smith ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected] JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 117, B03410, doi:10.1029/2011JB008398, 2012 Geodetic constraints on San Francisco Bay Area fault slip rates and potential seismogenic asperities on the partially creeping Hayward fault Eileen L. Evans,1 John P. Loveless,1,2 and Brendan J. Meade1 Received 28 March 2011; revised 17 November 2011; accepted 31 January 2012; published 31 March 2012. [1] The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) is sometimes considered unusual among continental faults for exhibiting significant aseismic creep during the interseismic phase of the seismic cycle while also generating sufficient elastic strain to produce major earthquakes. Imaging the spatial variation in interseismic fault creep on the Hayward fault is complicated because of the interseismic strain accumulation associated with nearby faults in the SFBA, where the relative motion between the Pacific plate and the Sierra block is partitioned across closely spaced subparallel faults.
    [Show full text]
  • I Final Technical Report United States Geological Survey National
    Final Technical Report United States Geological Survey National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program - External Research Grants Award Number 08HQGR0140 Third Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area: Science, Hazard, Engineering and Risk Conference Dates: October 22nd-26th, 2008 Location: California State University, East Bay Principal Investigator: Mitchell S. Craig Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences California State University, East Bay Submitted March 2010 Summary The Third Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area was held October 22nd-26th, 2008 at California State University, East Bay. The conference included three days of technical presentations attended by over 200 participants, a public forum, two days of field trips, and a one-day teacher training workshop. Over 100 technical presentations were given, including oral and poster presentations. A printed volume containing the conference program and abstracts of presentations (attached) was provided to attendees. Participants included research scientists, consultants, emergency response personnel, and lifeline agency engineers. The conference provided a rare opportunity for professionals from a wide variety of disciplines to meet and discuss common strategies to address region-specific seismic hazards. The conference provided participants with a comprehensive overview of the vast amount of new research that has been conducted and new methods that have been employed in the study of East Bay earthquake hazards since the last East Bay Earthquake Conference was held in 1992. Topics of presentations included seismic and geodetic monitoring of faults, trench-based fault studies, probabilistic seismic risk analysis, earthquake hazard mapping, and models of earthquake rupture, seismic wave propagation, and ground shaking.
    [Show full text]
  • Three-Dimensional Deformation and Stress Models: Exploring One-Thousand Years of Earthquake History Along the San Andreas Fault System
    Three-dimensional Deformation and Stress Models: Exploring One-Thousand Years of Earthquake History Along the San Andreas Fault System by Bridget Renee Smith UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO SCRIPPS INSTITUTION OF OCEANOGRAPHY 2005 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Three-dimensional Deformation and Stress Models: Exploring One-Thousand Years of Earthquake History Along the San Andreas Fault System A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Sciences by Bridget Renee Smith Committee in charge: David T. Sandwell, Chair Bruce Bills Steve Cande Yuri Fialko Catherine Johnson Xanthippi Markenscoff 2005 Copyright Bridget Smith, 2005 All rights reserved. The dissertation of Bridget Renee Smith is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm: _____________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________ University of California, San Diego 2005 iii For my parents – although I have never been a student in your classrooms, you will always be my most treasured teachers of life. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page.……………………...……………………………………………………………….iii Dedication.……………………...……………………………………………………………………iv Table of Contents.……………………..……………………………………………………………...v List of Figures and Tables.……………………...………………………………………………….viii Acknowledgements.…………………….………………………………………………………….…x
    [Show full text]
  • Database of Potential Sources for Earthquakes Larger Than Magnitude 6 in Northern California
    U. S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR U. S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY DATABASE OF POTENTIAL SOURCES FOR EARTHQUAKES LARGER THAN MAGNITUDE 6 IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA By The Working Group on Northern California Earthquake Potential Open-File Report 96-705 This report is preliminary and has not been reviewed for conformity with U.S. Geological Survey editorial standards or with the North American stratigraphic code. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. 1996 Working Group on Northern California Earthquake Potential William Bakun U.S. Geological Survey Edward Bortugno California Office of Emergency Services William Bryant California Division of Mines & Geology Gary Carver Humboldt State University Kevin Coppersmith Geomatrix N. T. Hall Geomatrix James Hengesh Dames & Moore Angela Jayko U.S. Geological Survey Keith Kelson William Lettis Associates Kenneth Lajoie U.S. Geological Survey William R. Lettis William Lettis Associates James Lienkaemper* U.S. Geological Survey Michael Lisowski Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Patricia McCrory U.S. Geological Survey Mark Murray Stanford University David Oppenheimer U.S. Geological Survey William D. Page Pacific Gas & Electric Co. Mark Petersen California Division of Mines & Geology Carol S. Prentice U.S. Geological Survey William Prescott U.S. Geological Survey Thomas Sawyer William Lettis Associates David P. Schwartz* U.S. Geological Survey Jeff Unruh William Lettis Associates Dave Wagner California Division of Mines & Geology
    [Show full text]
  • Fault Scaling Relationships Depend on the Average Fault Slip Rate
    Manuscript Click here to download Manuscript RL+SR_2MW_r16.tex 1 Fault Scaling Relationships Depend on the 2 Average Fault Slip Rate 3 John G. Anderson, Glenn P. Biasi, Steven G. Wes- 4 nousky 5 Abstract 6 This study addresses whether knowing the slip rate on a fault improves es- 7 timates of magnitude (MW ) of shallow, continental surface-rupturing earth- 8 quakes. Based on 43 earthquakes from the database of Wells and Coppersmith 9 (1994), Anderson et al. (1996) previously suggested that estimates of MW from 10 rupture length (LE)areimprovedbyincorporatingthesliprateofthefault 11 (SF ). We re-evaluate this relationship with an expanded database of 80 events, 12 that includes 57 strike-slip, 12 reverse, and 11 normal faulting events. When the 13 data are subdivided by fault mechanism, magnitude predictions from rupture 14 length are improved for strike-slip faults when slip rate is included, but not for 15 reverse or normal faults. Whether or not the slip rate term is present, a linear 16 model with M log L over all rupture lengths implies that the stress drop W ⇠ E 17 depends on rupture length - an observation that is not supported by teleseismic 18 observations. We consider two other models, including one we prefer because it 19 has constant stress drop over the entire range of LE for any constant value of 20 SF and fits the data as well as the linear model. The dependence on slip rate for 21 strike-slip faults is a persistent feature of all considered models. The observed 22 dependence on SF supports the conclusion that for strike-slip faults of a given 23 length, the static stress drop, on average, tends to decrease as the fault slip rate 24 increases.
    [Show full text]
  • Appendix M Geology, Soils, and Seismicity Resources
    GNOSS FIELD AIRPORT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT FINAL APPENDIX M GEOLOGY, SOILS, AND SEISMICITY RESOURCES This appendix contains supporting documentation for the assessment of Geology, Soils, and Seismicity Resources for the Environmental Impact Statement and Environmental Impact Report. Landrum & Brown Appendix M – Geology, Soils, and Seismicity Resources June 2014 Page M-1 GNOSS FIELD AIRPORT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT FINAL THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Landrum & Brown Appendix M – Geology, Soils, and Seismicity Resources June 2014 Page M-2 2240 Northpomt Parkway (K~'ilNF£LD£R Santa Rosa, CA ~-? Bright People. Right Solutions. 95407-5009 pi 707.571 .1883 f 1707.571 .7813 kle infelder.com September 8, 2009 Project: 92158-1906 Ms. Sara Hassert Mr. Rob Adams Landrum and Brown 8755 W. Higgins Road, Suite 850 Chicago, IL 60631 Subject: Geology, Soils and Seismicity Subsection Gnoss Field Airport EIS/EIR Novato, California Dear Ms. Hassert and Mr. Adams: Kleinfelder is pleased to provide the enclosed revised Geology, Soils, and Seismicity section for your review, comment, and use. As requested , Alternative C has been deleted from consideration . Based on the tasking sequence, we understand this text may be used for the appropriate sections of both the EIS and EIR documents, which we understand will be separate stand-alone documents. These subsections were prepared entirely by Kleinfelder. Once finalized, we understand you will fold all of the subsections from the various consultants together. At this time, we didn't include supporting appendix material, other than Plates 1, 2, and 3, with this submittal. We understand that as you review and assemble the EIS and EIR documents, you will decide what supporting material will need to accompany the EIS and/or EIR documents.
    [Show full text]
  • The Hayward Fault: Is It America’S Most Dangerous?
    p14_16 April08 CA Quake:CatRisk 13/3/08 16:19 Page 14 HAZARD : EARTHQUAKE The Hayward Fault: Is It America’s Most Dangerous? A repeat of the 1868 Hayward fault California earthquake today would have enormous consequences. Property worth more than $500 billion and approximately 5 million people in six surrounding counties would suffer badly from such a quake. By Thomas Brocher and other members of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC earthquake in Fremont lie either on or directly adjacent to the the heart of the San Francisco Bay area is fault’s trace. A repeat of the 1868 earthquake increasing likely. Geologic studies along the today would have enormous consequences. It southern Hayward Fault in the East Bay indicate would affect property worth more than $500 that this fault has generated 12 major earth- billion and approximately 5 million people in quakes in the last 1900 years, most recently in six surrounding counties. The population 1868. These earthquakes were powerful today is more than 19 times what it was in 1868. enough to offset the ground surface, indicating According to a 2008 report for the US that they had magnitudes greater than 6.3. The Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor average interval between these earthquakes is Statistics, the exposure of employers, employ- 160 ± 65 years (one standard deviation uncer- ees and wages to an earthquake along the tainties) based on radiocarbon dating of the Hayward Fault ($25 billion in quarterly wages) soils they disturbed. The last five earthquakes greatly exceeds those that were at risk to seem to have occurred more frequently, Hurricane Katrina ($3 billion to $4.7 billion) in however.
    [Show full text]
  • GEOTECHNICAL INVESTIGATION REPORT Project Zeus Mare Island, Vallejo, California
    GEOTECHNICAL INVESTIGATION REPORT Project Zeus Mare Island, Vallejo, California Prepared by: Amec Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, Inc. May 1, 2017 Project No. 6166150082 Copyright © 2015 by Amec Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, Inc. All rights reserved. May 1, 2017 Project Zeus Confidential Client Subject: Geotechnical Investigation Report Project Zeus Mare Island Site Vallejo, California Project No. 6166150082.14 Dear Project Zeus Client Team: Amec Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, Inc. (Amec Foster Wheeler) is pleased to present this Geotechnical Investigation Report for the Project Zeus Mare Island site, located in Vallejo, California. We appreciate the opportunity to work with you on this project. If you have any questions or require additional information, please feel free to contact Chris Coutu at [email protected] or (510) 663-4156, or any of the undersigned team members. Sincerely, Amec Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, Inc. Chris Coutu, PE, GE Donald Wells, PG, CEG Principal Engineer Senior Associate Engineering Geologist Direct Tel.: (510) 663-4156 Direct Tel.: (510) 663-4178 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] cc/dw/aw/ldu X:\6166150082\3000 Rpt\Zeus Rpt\1 txt, cvrs\Zeus_MareIsland_Geotech_Text_050117.docx TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Purpose ..........................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Earthquake Early Warning Systems: an Investment That Pays Off in Seconds – an Invited Comment
    Volume XXXII • Number 5 May 2008 Earthquake Early Warning Systems: An Investment that Pays off in Seconds – an invited comment n October 2007, Japan unveiled a national earthquake earthquake. It must be reliable enough that useful actions Iearly warning system tasked with providing the to protect life and property (evacuation, shutting down general public with a few seconds of warning before the electric and gas lines, etc.) can be initiated based on the onset of strong earthquake ground shaking. This article warning information. To date, earthquake prediction is defines earthquake early warning systems and describes a “holy grail” of seismology; it continues to be a hotly how they can improve the way modern societies mitigate debated topic and active area of research. In general, the the effects of damaging earthquakes. verdict is still out on whether earthquake science can be From the start, it should be made clear that earth- advanced to the stage where useful and reliable predic- quake early warning is not earthquake prediction. A tion statements can be made (e.g., “We expect a mag- useful earthquake prediction requires specific infor- nitude 6 earthquake to initiate within the Los Angeles mation about the timing, location, and size of a future metropolitan area on September 24, 2015”). If it’s not prediction, then what is it? to define today’s earthquake early warning systems: (1) systems with more dense instrumental networks per- While it may not be possible to predict when and form better, (2) no warning will be available for regions where the next damaging earthquake might occur, it is too close to the earthquake source, (3) broadcasting of possible to estimate the effects of strong ground shak- warnings and the actions in response to the warning in- ing on surrounding areas while an earthquake is still formation should be automated.
    [Show full text]
  • The Hayward Fault—Is It Due for a Repeat of the Powerful 1868 Earthquake?
    Understanding Earthquake Hazards in the San Francisco Bay Region The Hayward Fault—Is It Due for a Repeat of the Powerful 1868 Earthquake? n October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 Oearthquake struck the San Fran- cisco Bay area. Although the region was sparsely populated, the quake on the Hay- ward Fault was one of the most destruc- tive in California’s history. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studies show that similar Hayward Fault quakes have repeatedly jolted the region in the past and that the Strong shaking fault may be ready to produce another during the 1868 magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake. Such an Hayward Fault earthquake could unexpectedly change earthquake caused people’s lives and impact the Bay Area’s the second story of the Alameda County infrastructure and economy, but updated Courthouse in San building codes and retrofits, as well as Leandro to collapse (photo courtesy of the Bancroft Library, University of California). The inset planning, community training, and pre- photo shows the courthouse before the quake (photo courtesy of San Leandro Public Library). paredness, will help reduce the effects of The 1868 earthquake devastated several East Bay towns and caused widespread damage in a future Hayward Fault earthquake. the San Francisco Bay region. In the early morning of October 21, serious damage in Napa and Hollister. Numer- Santa RODGERS Rosa CREEK 80 1868, seismic waves from a power- ous witnesses reported seeing the ground AREA N OF MAP ful earthquake raced through the fog- move in waves. Shaking was felt as far away Napa shrouded San Francisco Bay area.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program
    Annual Report of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program March 2008 This annual report on the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) is submitted to Congress by the Interagency Coordinating Committee (ICC) of NEHRP, as required by the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Reauthorization Act of 2004 (42 U.S.C. 7701 et. seq., as amended by Public Law 108-360). The members of the ICC are: Dr. James M. Turner, Chair of the ICC Acting Director National Institute of Standards and Technology U.S. Department of Commerce Mr. R. David Paulison Administrator Federal Emergency Management Agency Dr. Arden L. Bement, Jr. Director National Science Foundation Mr. Jim Nussle Director Office of Management and Budget Executive Office of the President Dr. John H. Marburger, III Director Office of Science and Technology Policy Executive Office of the President Dr. Mark Myers Director U.S. Geological Survey Disclaimer: Certain trade names or company products are mentioned in the text to specify adequately the experimental procedure and equipment used. In no case does such identification imply recommendation or endorsement by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, nor does it imply that the equipment is the best available for the purpose. Revised April 2008 Preface Of all natural hazards threatening the United States, earthquakes pose the greatest risk in terms of casualties and damage. According to a 2006 National Research Council (NRC) report, 42 states have regions with some degree of earthquake potential and 18 states have areas of high or very high seismicity. Over 75 million people live in urban areas with moderate to high earthquake risk.
    [Show full text]