ISSN 1359-9321 The Galton Institute NEWSLETTER

Galtonia candicans Issue Number 72 December 2009 from species destined to diverge could not Contents pair with each other at . He The Galton Institute believed this ‘accent’ resided in the percent differences in G-C content of the The Galton Institute Annual Annual Conference of horse and ass. A later speaker Conference 2009 1 st contested this view of hybrid sterility; that October 1 , 2009 it may be more due to gene sequences British Society for Population coding for ligand-receptor interactions, William Bateson: Studies Annual Conference enzymes, transport proteins etc being 2009 3 His exceptions and Origin of sufficiently different between horse and

ass, particularly with regard to gonadal Species Revisited The Origins of Percussive development, that leads to hybrid sterility.

Technology: a Smashing Time

Professor Sir Walter Bodmer started in Cambridge 6 The 45th Annual Conference of the from the problem that Darwin’s ideas on Galton Institute was held on 1st October, the mechanism of inheritance were The Darwinian Renaissance in 2009 at The Royal Society and was inconsistent with his theory of the Humanities and Social entitled William Bateson: His exceptions by . Mendel’s paper of Sciences 7 and origin of species revisited. This is a 1866 had a well developed set of alge- short report of the proceedings of the day. braic expressions accounting for his Why Aren’t the Social hybridization and segregation data Sciences Darwinian? 8 Professor Donald Forsdyke started producing a type of variation that Natural with the report of 1902 to The Royal Selection could work on. Mendel’s work Fertility declines in the past, Society where Bateson promulgated the was taken up by G E Hardy (1908) who Mendelian view of inheritance. Bateson’s proposed that Mendelian variants in a present and future: what we report intensified the fierce debate random mating population without other don’t know and what we need between the biometricians, led by Karl interfering factors would reach equilib- to know 9 Pearson, and the Mendelians. The lecturer rium in one generation. This later led to then considered Bateson’s contribution to test for the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium Richard Soloway 12 speciation theory and suggested from the in population . R A Fisher, a Published by: work of George Romanes, that reproduc- founding father of population genetics The Galton Institute tive isolation would need to precede (together with Haldane and Sewell 19 Northfields Prospect Natural Selection for species to evolve. Wright), demonstrated how blending Darwin considered Natural Selection as inheritance could be explained by the Northfields the prime factor in speciation. Professor inheritance of a few Mendelian factors LONDON SW18 1PE Forsdyke then discussed the Darwin working together. Bateson appeared to Telephone: 020-8874 7257 lecture given by Bateson in 1909 and lack the mathematical abilities to appreci- General Secretary: gave his own original and provocative ate Fisher’s contribution to the contro- Mrs Betty Nixon views on the cause of hybrid sterility. He versy of the Biometricians versus the took the case of the union of horse with Mendelians. Fisher also proposed the use Newsletter Editor: ass to produce the sterile mule. He of linkage studies for the prognosis of Robert Cohen believed that DNA sequences have an hereditary ailments in a paper as early as Web site: ‘accent’, rather like the different accents 1935; this was the dawn of the use of www.galtoninstitute.org.uk in speech, so that eventually the DNA polymorphic gene markers to attempt to

GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER 1 DECEMBER 2009 trace ‘disease’ alleles. The subject Professor Dover considers these networks major contributions that Bateson had started with the use of the ABO blood to be the equivalent of Bateson’s made. Bateson’s large book on Materials groups, then moved to the HLA system, ‘motions’ and ‘harmonics’. During for the Study of Variation was published and latterly to the use of DNA polymor- ontogeny individuals have to construct in 1894, that is six years before the re- phisms. The early success of linking their own networks anew. A theory of discovery of Mendel and the importance HLA B27 to ankylosing spondylitis with evolution also requires theory of molecu- of discrete variation was recognised. an Odds Ratio of 158 was a great lar interactions (epistasis). He then gave Bateson strongly promoted Mendel’s stimulus to the field. Solomon and one practical example that this reviewer views on inheritance in British academic Bodmer made the very interesting did not fully understand, so an interested circles and applied it to human disease suggestion in the Lancet (1979) that the reader should refer directly to Professor through a suggestion he made to A E newly described DNA polymorphisms Dover’s publications. Garrod. Bateson later put forward the have the potential to cover the whole idea of linkage (which he called gametic Professor Sir David Baulcombe genome and so detect any of the genes coupling). He coined the term epistasis opened his Galton Lecture 2009 by involved in the inheritance of disease – a where two or more genes interact. He showing how the study of plants has prediction that has come true. The also coined the terms homeosis and benefited our understanding of the basic lecture ended by noting that very rare meristic variation where he considered structure and genetics of all living variants have been detected by a straight there to be a ‘master’ locus affecting organisms. Beginning with van Leeu- forward Mendelian analysis, and com- bodily structures and repetitive elements wenhoek’s microscopic studies of plants, mon variants by association with DNA in development, giving examples such as showing that they are made up of cells, to polymorphisms, so that it was now time polydactyly. Mendel’s discoveries of particulate to identify variants of frequency between genetics in the garden pea, to Barbara very rare and common that may have a Professor Cox then went on to elabo- McClintock’s discovery of transposons in large impact on disease expression. Sir rate each of these concepts. He gave a maize and to the infection of plants by Walter illustrated this with a histogram of very lucid and helpful account of the viruses such as the tobacco mosaic virus. the Odds Ratios of the genetic compo- inborn errors of metabolism that Garrod Studies of the latter have led to the nents of Type 1 Diabetes showing the first described, and noted that more than discovery of a unique mechanism of HLA system having the greatest impact, 2,000 ‘single-gene defects’ have been resistance to viral infection in plants. then variation of the insulin gene, grading documented. He then gave examples of This involves the plant genome making down to the right hand tail of genes that epistasis, taking as one example amongst an antisense RNA to target the sense are common but with a minor impact. others, a single mutation at the cystic RNA of the infecting virus and so Variants lying between the two clusters fibrosis locus giving rise to five different neutralising it. It is a type of ‘immune’ now need to be identified. phenotypes depending on the interaction mechanism whereby the plant gets with ‘background’ genes at other loci. He specificity from the invading virus to Professor Gabriel Dover enlarged on then went on to a detailed account of make a small double-stranded antisense one of Bateson’s ideas that variation homeotic mutations. The Hox genes RNA. This is cleaved by dicer enzymes comprised not only in the structure of regulate developmental events and were to single strands for combination with the material but also in the arrangement or first described in drosophilia where invading viral RNA. ‘motion’ or ‘harmonics’ of the material. mutations cause gross bodily defects such

This led to Professor Dover’s views on as bithorax and antennapaedia – as first There are about 5000 genes in the plant epistasis of being two types: 1. genetic shown in Bateson’s early work, Materials genome that make small RNAs not only interaction fixed by evolutionary proc- for the Study of Variation (1894). He as a defence mechanism but also to esses i.e. co-adaptation; or 2. liberating gave many examples in humans such as regulate gene expression and integrate interactions or combinatorial flexibility. mutations in the Hox d13 genes cause gene function in epistatic interactions. Professor Dover pointed out that there polydactyly. He then dealt with the Some siRNAs may operate at the level of were many non-Mendelian interactions of intracellular signalling pathways involv- DNA promoters either to switch on or off DNA leading to flexibility such as ing the Hedgehog proteins which act as gene transcription. There is also evi- unequal crossing-over, gene conversion, morphogens and require sterols for their dence for uniparental expression of slippage, copy number variation, imprint- full functional activity. They direct siRNAs, for example the maternal ing etc. He then went on to describe embryonic development into different genome can suppress the paternal various combinatorial regulatory net- body parts and are conserved from genome. Professor Baulcombe then works using the mathematics of topology. to humans. Sonic Hedgehog is the one showed how this work in plants has been In the simplest terms a single gene can most studied in mammals and is active extended to non-Mendelian types of interact with a variety of networks critically during early human develop- inheritance in the mouse. (pleiotropy); or different genes can ment. Disruption of the pathway in interact with a single network (epistasis). Professor Timothy Cox first listed the humans can produce grotesque mal-

DECEMBER 2009 2 GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER formations of the skull and brain, such as tion was the substrate for Natural Selec- acquired new Hox genes, possibly by holoprosencephaly – an extreme exam- tion he assembled a vast array of all the gene duplication, perhaps in its need for ple of which was cyclopia. The final part discrete variants he could find to publish a more complex body plan than amphi- of this lecture emphasised the relation- in his book Materials for the Study of oxus. Comparing Hox genes between ship between Science and Medicine ex- Variation. species like this gives insight into the emplified by Bateson’s dictum: genetic basis of the evolutionary differ- ‘Treasure your Exceptions’. Not only did Bateson invented the word homeosis to ences in body structures. These data fit Garrod and Bateson show how science indicate a new sort of variation, not just in very well with an early quotation from and medicine interacted reciprocally in a single change, but a change in a whole Bateson’s book Materials for the Study the cause of advancement through dis- set of structures. For example a leg of a of Variation: ‘If facts of the old kind will covery but also how both illuminated our butterfly could be transformed into a not help, let us seek for facts of a new understanding of biological phenomena wing; an eye of a lobster may become an kind’; as Bateson undoubtedly did dur- in the context of evolutionary theory. antenna. Some error has occurred in de- ing his life-time. Through this prism, Garrod was able to velopment and although these changes consider chemical individuality as a re- are too drastic to be of much use for the Reported by: David J Galton, Emeritus flection of variation and disease, not as evolution of species, they may help us to Professor at the Wolfson Institute of an analogy of the ‘broken machine’, but understand the process of evolution of Preventive Medicine, St Bartholomew’s as an evolutionary maladaptation of cer- species via the homeotic (Hox) genes. Hospital Medical College as well as a tain humans to their particular environ- The Hox genes in drosophilia have been trustee of The Galton Institute. ment. mapped as clusters on several chromo-

somes. They mainly code for transcrip- The final talk was by Professor Peter tion factors and determine such bodily Programme Holland. The theme of homeosis was characteristics as the position of head Professor Donald Forsdyke taken up again in relation to evolution. and tail of the , its right or left sides, Bateson’s Contributions to He began with some early work by Bate- of its upper or lower surfaces. If there Evolutionary Theory son on the classification in the animal were minor changes in these Hox genes Professor Sir Walter Bodmer kingdom of the worm-like animal it could produce minor changes in bodily Quantitative Genetics and Variation Balanoglossus. The adult has gill slits structures and perhaps lead to variation Professor Gabriel Dover and so could be related to the fishes; that Natural Selection could work on. Epistasis and the Co-evolution of however its larvae more resembled the Genetic Networks larvae of echinoderms. Bateson was the As an example, a comparison has been The Galton Lecture first to show it was a chordate and there- made of the Hox gene clusters between Professor Sir David Baulcombe fore related to the fishes. Bateson was amphioxus and the mouse. Surprisingly How Narture Influences Nature rather dismissive of his own morphologi- some of the Hox genes present in amphi- Professor Timothy Cox cal work; and wanted to branch out into oxus have been lost from the mouse ge- Bateson and Medicine something newer than animal classifica- nome whereas the reverse might have Professor Peter Holland tion. Believing that discontinuous varia- been expected. However, the mouse has Homeosis and Evolution of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine able. The first set of indicators looking British Society for which addressed ‘Reproductive Change at being ‘ready’ for fertility decline con- in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cause for Con- sidered the demand for delaying and Population Studies cern’. The plenary set out how Africa is reducing family size. ‘Willingness’ con- Annual Conference 2009 different from the rest of the world as siders the approval of family planning the demographic transition has abated methods, intentions to use such methods rather than accelerated there. This is of and whether there had been discussion The 2009 BSPS Annual Conference course of grave concern for the pros- of using contraceptives within the house- was held at the University of Sussex pects of development within the region hold. Finally ‘ability’ examines whether from 9-11 September and was again and also because of the growing threat of individuals are knowledgeable about very well attended, with over 190 par- climate change. Climatic stability is de- specific family planning methods and if ticipants over the course of the three pendent upon the absolute population they knew of a source from where to days. In addition to the three plenary size and sustained high fertility clearly obtain them. Macro level results from sessions from invited speakers, Professor will result in a larger future global popu- Demographic Health Survey data was John Cleland, Professor Ron Lest- lation. then presented for 13 west African and haeghe, and Professor Nyovani Madise, 11 eastern and southern countries. These there were two special sessions honour- results clearly highlighted that there is a ing the work of the late John Hajnal. Professor Cleland described three sets growing divide between western Africa of indicators for measurement of the and the rest of the region. Particular bar- The first plenary was given by Profes- potential for fertility decline; whether riers in west Africa are the attitudes to- sor John Cleland of the London School the populace was ready, willing and/or

GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER 3 DECEMBER 2009 w3 ards family size limitation and inade- tors, the field had subsequently been little velopment Goals, Goal 5 to improve ma- qu ate access to contraceptive material. In explored. Professor Lesthaeghe then ternal health is the area where the least light of this the current UN forecasts for turned to geography of Second Demo- progress has been made. Also made clear fertility decline in the western African graphic Transition behaviours in the con- were the regional disparities in progress region may well be highly optimistic. temporary USA population and illus- in maternal health with sub-Saharan Af- trated the wide divergences between the rica being the area where the problems Professor Cleland concluded that for North Eastern seaboard at one end of the remain greatest. The maternal mortality both policy makers and academics there spectrum to Utah at the other. In previous ratio for sub-Saharan Africa as a whole has perhaps been too much focus in re- analyses of state and county variations in was estimated at 940 deaths per 100,000 cent years on reproductive health, at the summary factor scores of these behav- live births in 1990 and this decreased expense of explicitly reducing fertility. iours, Professor Lesthaeghe and col- only slightly in the 15 years to 2005 to He highlighted that for Niger there had leagues had demonstrated that these 920 per 100,000. been more meetings looking at sexuality variations were strongly associated with and old age than at fertility. High fertility voting behaviour in the 1994 US Presi- What are the Issues? needs to be viewed as a problem in its dential elections. In this plenary he pre- Nyovani then discussed some of the own right, and it was argued that opinion sented new results showing continuing, key issues in sub-Saharan Africa contrib- was swinging back towards this view- or indeed even stronger associations in uting to the high maternal mortality rates. point. One reason for the divergence of the most recent US presidential election. She stated that the biggest challenge was western Africa maybe its colonial legacy. Strong loadings on second demographic access to healthcare, especially for rural As these countries are largely Franco- type behaviours at state or county level and urban slum populations. Another phone, cultural diffusion of reproductive were strongly negatively associated with problem is the quality of the care that is norms is possibly somewhat harder than voting for Bush, or later McCain, even available. She noted that it is often the elsewhere. Similarly, French interna- after control for a range of structural and case that services such as clinics and tional donors have not seemed to be as other characteristics. The only one of health personal that exist ‘on paper’, for supportive of family planning pro- these which changed the strength of the example in a DHS, in reality often do not grammes as other international agencies. association in any substantial way was live up to the quality of services they are It was noted that the environmental case religion. In his conclusion Professor assumed to be providing. Unmet need for for fertility limitation was not limited to Lesthaeghe noted that these results, in contraception also has a key role in ma- climate change. At the micro level, popu- conjunction with other research, illus- ternal mortality with women being ex- lation pressure can act as a powerful cas- trated the importance of lifestyle and posed to risk from unwanted pregnancies. ual factor in local environmental degra- attitudes and values in shaping demo- Nyovani also presented data showing a dation. As a final point, it was acknowl- graphic behaviour. Time for questions significant correlation between percent- edged that there is an inter-correlation was restricted but lively debates on the age of births attended by a skilled atten- between the three sets of indicators and it lecture continued less formally over dant and maternal morality ratio. Other is important to consider fertility demand lunch and coffee breaks. less direct factors in maternal mortality as very much a latent concept. are socio-economic indicators such as The final day of the conference began GDP, lack of investment in female edu- An excellent second plenary was deliv- with a very thought provoking plenary cation and gender inequality. ered by Professor Ron Lesthaeghe of the address by Professor Nyovani Madise Belgian Academy of Sciences on ‘The (University of Southampton) titled ‘Lives Strategies with Limited Success American spatial pattern of the Second hanging in the balance: motherhood in The presentation went on to introduce Demographic Transition and the Presi- Africa’. some of the interventions to improve dential Elections’. Professor Lesthaeghe maternal health in sub-Saharan Africa first summarised the theoretical back- Maternal Mortality Matters which have been met with limited levels ground of the concept of the Second Nyovani began her presentation by of success. The two main strategies dis- Demographic Transition, and examined relating some of the phrases and terms cussed were antenatal risk screening and previous work on linking demographic she had heard during her childhood in traditional birth attendants. Nyovani de- and political behaviour. The earliest work Malawi which refer to the state of preg- fined some of the individual risk factors of this type was carried out by Julius nancy. Terms like ‘in between’ referring of maternal mortality as being maternal Wolf in early twentieth century Germany. to being in a state between life and death, age, parity, spacing of births and wanted- Subsequently Massimo Livi Bacci had reveal how pregnancy is seen as a consid- ness of pregnancy. However she went on shown strong associations between geo- erably risky time and a pregnancy is not to explain that antenatal risk screening is graphical variations in the timing of the celebrated until it concludes with a safe not always an effective strategy due to first demographic transition in Italy and live birth. She then went on to outline the unpredictable nature of many deaths. voting on divorce considerably later. Oth- some key statistics to demonstrate why She illustrated this point with data on erwise, apart from the recent work of maternal mortality matters. These high- leading causes of maternal deaths which Professor Lesthaeghe and his collabora- lighted that among the Millennium De- include unpredictable causes such as

DECEMBER 2009 4 GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER bleeding and obstructed labour. The Tony Wrigley, Ron Lesthaeghe, Maire Ni measure of fertility is most appropriate to training of Traditional Birth Attendants Bhrolchain, Mike Murphy and Chris use in population projections is as active has also been ineffective in reducing Langford all recognised the quiet and today as it was when John raised the is- mortality rates primarily due to quality of considered influence of John across a sue in 1947. In addition to John’s work care issues and the lack of a supporting vast range of demographic and statistical on fertility, Maire emphasised how we referral system and the associated infra- fields. might all learn a great deal from the con- structure for when complications arise. sidered way in which John handled lim- In two seminal articles (1965, 1982), ited data. What is working? John had described the distinctive mar- Having discussed the strategies with riage pattern evident in North West Professor Murphy described John Ha- limited success Nyovani then went on to Europe - relatively high ages at first mar- jnal’s role in changing how population talk about what is working to improve riage, relatively high proportions of the projections were carried out. He de- maternal health. This includes: population not marrying. He also hy- scribed how John was pivotal in the pothesised why and when the pattern move from logistic growth models to i) Strategies following the principle of a developed. In this first presentation Rich- cohort component models. The longevity continuum of care, beginning at home ard Smith focused on these articles and of John’s insight was demonstrated yet and following through to a healthcare on John’s insight on the importance of again, as Mike noted how John’s obser- facility understanding marriage patterns. Richard vations on the population projections are ii) The use of skilled professionals as also highlighted John’s habit of continu- as manifestly relevant today as they were birth attendants ally questioning his ideas (and the ideas when he made them in the 1950s. iii) Strong health systems and an estab- of anyone and everyone else!). Indeed, lished referral system, which uses tradi- the development of his work on marriage In the final session Chris Langford tional birth attendants to provide referrals patterns between his original paper in concentrated on John’s work for the rather than to attend deliveries 1965 and the 1982 paper is a clear exam- Royal Commission on Population. Chris iv) Access to safe abortion ple of this trait. described how John’s input into this im- mense piece of analysis was incredible Finally Nyovani highlighted the need Much of what Tony Wrigley discussed not only because of the lack of technol- for good data in order to accurately meas- in the second session came out of John’s ogy, but also because John was just 19 ure maternal mortality and monitor pro- 1982 paper. Focussing on average years old when he joined the commis- gress, and she cautioned against over household size, Tony spoke of the rela- sion. reliance on hospital data. tionship between the economy, house- hold size and marriage patterns from the These sessions were very personal. Early Modern Period until the Industrial The presentation was followed by some They emphasised the positive impact of Revolution and the move from sexual questions from the audience. One ques- John Hajnal on both the demographic maturity as a control of marriage to eco- tion raised the issue of caesarean section world and on the individual lives of those nomics as a control of marriage. and whether or not this could play a role of us who knew him. in reducing maternal mortality in Africa. Consideration of economic control of Nyovani responded that she did believe In addition to the invited sessions, 106 that lack of access to caesarean sections marriage was taken onwards by Professor Lesthaeghe. Using evidence from Flan- contributed papers were also presented in was a significant problem. She noted that ders and Brabant 1450 – 1789, along with strand sessions spread over the course of access to this type of service was highly a lovely selection of artwork, Ron de- the Conference. The abstracts for all pa- uneven and in rural areas women are dy- scribed how moral controls were used to pers can be found on the BSPS website at ing for lack of access to this level of care. bring about economic controls in mar- www.bsps.org.uk together with some of She also pointed out that an aspect of this riage during times of economic down- the presentations themselves, accessible problem is the challenge of employing turn. via the hyperlink in the title of the ab- and retaining skilled and qualified health stract. personnel in rural areas. Maire Ni Bhrolchain progressed from

marriage to fertility. Citing three main Thanks to Paul Mathews, Emily John Hajnal sessions: pieces of John’s work in this field (a Grundy, Claire Bailey and Briony Ep- study of birth statistics in the first edition stein for their reports of the plenary and The list of presenters at the sessions to of Population Studies in 1947, The Royal Hajnal sessions. celebrate the life and work of John Ha- Commission on Population 1944-48, a jnal say much for his impact on the world study of fertility and reproduction for of demography (and beyond), and also Millbank in 1959) Maire explained how BSPS would like to take this opportunity the high respect in which he was held. observations made by John more than 60 to thank The Galton Institute for their years ago are still relevant in the study of generous financial support for the Annual In their presentations, Richard Smith, fertility today. The debate on which Conference.

GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER 5 DECEMBER 2009 model aspects of the percussive technol- percussion and the skilled stone knap- ogy of early hominins. Proposed simi- ping evidenced at some early Oldowan The Origins of Percussive larities between Pan nut-cracking site- localities. Ignacio de la Torre (London) assemblages and the material culture of continued this theme, stressing that there Technology: A Smashing Plio-Pleistocene hominins, together with are fundamental apples-with-oranges Time in Cambridge recent reports of wild Cebus nut- problems with regard to comparisons of 3 cracking pounding tools have initiated a chimpanzee anvil use and intentional debate between archaeologists and pri- hard-hammer lithic reduction as seen in On the 18th October 2008 the Lever- matologists. Re-examination of percus- the initial archaeological record. Dietrich hulme Centre for Human Evolutionary sion tools from Oldowan assemblages Stout (London) provided a fresh per- Studies (LCHES), University of Cam- further suggests that pounding tools spective on the evolutionary neurology bridge, hosted a one-day symposium on played a more important role than was of lithic reduction, pointing out key links ‘The Origins of Percussive Technology’. previously thought in the development between percussive actions and language 4 This was the second in a series of annual of the first hominin lithic industries . production. LCHES Palaeoanthropology Meets Pri- matology meetings, which began in 2007 This research has led not only to Primate lithics: monkeys, apes and as a means of connecting researchers claims that the pounding activities of hominins working on issues in human evolution non-human primates provide a valuable A second theme running through the who otherwise might rarely meet. The proxy for gauging the potential functions symposium was the application of ar- symposium brought together an interna- of early hominin stone tools, but also chaeological practice to the study of tional, multi-disciplinary group of speak- that the stone assemblages produced are non-human primate stone tools. Julio ers specializing in analysis of the earliest similar to reputed hominin pounding Mercader (Calgary), one of the pioneers archaeological stone tools and the use of tools with respect to typology and tech- of the emerging discipline of chimpan- stone by chimpanzees and capuchins. nology. Although such claims are open zee archaeology, stressed the need for The event was sponsored by the Galton to variable interpretation, this develop- comparable methods of data collection Institute, the Roberts Fund (University ing field clearly emphasizes the need for among researchers dealing with early of Cambridge), King’s College, Cam- extensive interspecies comparisons of archaeological and present day prima- bridge and the National Science Founda- percussive technologies and a focus tological stone assemblages. Susana tion (Revealing Hominid Origins Initia- upon the intentionality of behaviours of Carvalho (Cambridge) presented recent tive). tool production. Despite the potential work indicating that chimpanzees re-use benefits of such a comparison, however, the same pair of stones when nut- Non-human primate models cross-communication between paleoan- cracking, amplifying use-wear and in- thropologists and primatologists on this The earliest known hominin technol- creasing the likelihood of detaching issue remains limited. The LCHES sym- ogy is typified by unstandardized stone flakes. Tetsuro Matsuzawa (Kyoto) dem- posium provided an important bridge cores and flakes, which have led to its onstrated a free on-line database of across this gap through a series of in- being interchangeably referred to as a video footage from experiments both in triguing and thought-provoking talks. ‘pebble tool’ or ‘core tool’ culture. the field at Bossou, Guinea, and in the

Known as the Oldowan after its initial laboratory. Chimpanzees are not of First principles: the elements of per- discovery at Olduvai Gorge, this tech- course the only primates that use stone cussion nology has been found at sites dating percussion. Elisabetta Visalberghi from 2.6 million years ago1. No undis- Several presentations focused on the (Rome) presented the latest results on puted artifacts have been recovered from need for clarity in our understanding of field experiments testing the capacity of older deposits, but many archeologists the factors underlying percussive action, capuchin monkeys to select hammer hypothesize the existence of a ‘pre- and for critical consideration of the va- tools on the basis of functional features, Oldowan’ based on hominin morphol- lidity of drawing parallels between ex- such as size and weight. ogy, comparative primatology and the tinct hominin and extant primates. Wil- relative complexity of early flaking liam McGrew (Cambridge) began the A testing time: actualistic studies of strategies2. day with a comprehensive introduction percussive technology to the various forms of percussion, rang- One methodological thread woven But how does one go about searching ing from the use of stone hammers for throughout the day was the use of ex- for a hypothetical product in a material pounding foods to the precise use of a perimental research to provide clues to record? The comparative approach pro- billiards cue. The role of internal the form and function of the earliest per- vides a valuable starting point. Chim- (bodily) and external (environmental) cussive technologies. Andrew Du, April panzees (Pan sp.) and more recently constraints was highlighted by Hélène DeStefano and Jack Harris (Rutgers) capuchin monkeys (Cebus sp.) have Roche (Nanterre, France) in her discus- used data generated from the experimen- been used in an often ad hoc manner to sion of key differences between simple tal manufacture of digging sticks and the

DECEMBER 2009 6 GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER processing of meats and nuts to suggest logical methods of data collection to pri- implications for understanding stone tech- that otherwise unmodified Plio- mate research, as well as the necessity of nology and patterns of human evolution Pleistocene cobbles may retain diagnostic broadening the range of primate behavior between 2·6–1·5 Million Years Ago. Jour- wear patterns. This work was supported considered in the interpretation of early nal of Archaeological Science 27:1197- by Bruce Hardy (Kenyon), who demon- archaeological assemblages. The results 1214. strated the long-term survival of residues of such endeavors should provide signifi- 2 Panger MA, Brooks AS, Richmond BG, on archaeological tools and, importantly, cant guidance for ongoing research into Wood B. 2002. Older than the Oldowan? showed that pounding certain foods was early percussive technology. Rethinking the emergence of hominin tool adaptive in that it reduced toxicity and use. Evolutionary Anthropology 11:235- increased nutritional value. From a differ- The 2008 Palaeoanthropology Meets 245. ent perspective, Michael Petraglia Primatology meeting was successful in its 3 Visalberghi E, Fragaszy D, Ottoni E, (Cambridge) argued that while the use of aim of advancing our understanding of the Izar P, de Oliveira MG, Andrade FRD. chimpanzees and capuchins as models origins of early hominin technology. The 2007. Characteristics of hammer stones may be beneficial in many respects, it symposium also demonstrated the critical and anvils used by wild bearded capuchin may also be constraining our view of the place of focused face-to-face discussion monkeys (Cebus libidinosus) to crack early hominin technological record. He between researchers working in disparate open palm nuts. American Journal of presented evidence that nonpounding per- disciplines, which often produces unex- Physical Anthropology 132:426-444. cussive activities such as throwing may pected outcomes and breakthroughs that provide diagnostic features beyond con- are rarely achievable through literature 4 Mora R, de la Torre I. 2005. Percussion choidal fracture that could aid in the rec- synthesis alone. The emphasis on coop- tools in Olduvai Beds I and II (Tanzania): ognition of pre-Oldowan sites. erative advancement of the field seen at Implications for early human activities. this symposium augurs well for future Journal of Anthropological Archaeology Future directions work in this area. 24:179-192. Proceedings concluded with an insight- ful synthesis of the day’s main themes by Further information regarding the Victoria Ling, Adriana Hernandez- Robert Foley (Cambridge), followed by a Leverhulme Centre of Human Evolution- Aguilar, Michael Haslam and Susana focused workshop amongst the speakers. ary Studies can be found at http:// Carvalho - Leverhulme Centre for Hu- The workshop played a central role in www.human-evol.cam.ac.uk/. man Evolutionary Studies ensuring that the symposium’s advertise-

ment stressing cross-collaboration was more than mere rhetoric. Overall, both the References presenters and the international audience 1 Semaw S. 2000. The world’s oldest The Galton Institute helped support recognized the value of applying archaeo- stone artefacts from Gona, Ethiopia: Their this symposium with a grant of £1,000. decades the humanities and social sci- of 70 delegates. The talks concerned the The Darwinian Renais- ences (or HSS) have adopted certain application of evolutionary theory in a epistemological perspectives which ac- range of fields including anthropology, sance in the Humanities tively eschew scientific and especially demography, politics, culture, archae- and Social Sciences biological understanding. In so doing ology, psychology, and development. they have forsaken a theoretical frame- work (evolution) that provides coher- Held November 2009 at Queen Mary ence, breadth and depth to the under- The conference began with three talks University of London and supported by standing of human behaviour. On the on the application of evolutionary princi- a grant from The Galton Institute other hand, and in spite of this history of ples to our understanding of cultural ideological criticism, what might be transmission with specific examples, such as those from archeology and social The purpose of this one-day confer- termed the Human Evolutionary Behav- psychology (Alex Mesoudi, Alex Bent- ence, held at Queen Mary University of ioural Sciences (HEBS) have flour- ley and Stephen Lycett). The next talk London and supported by the Galton ished. In this meeting we showcased took on a core concern in psychology – Institute (along with the School of Bio- new and exciting work from within mate choice – and demonstrated how we logical and Chemical Sciences, Queen HEBS as applied to the traditional hu- can successfully use sexual selection Mary University of London, and the manities and social sciences, and exam- theory to illuminate this (Ian Penton- European Human Behaviour and Evolu- ined where efforts should be focused in Voak). Subsequent talks focused on the tion Association), was to discuss and the future. Seven speakers and one key- state-of-the-art in evolutionary anthro- debate the rise of Darwinian thinking in note, all of whom are young researchers pology (Mhairi Gibson) and evolution- the humanities and social sciences. This in their fields, gave talks from a range of ary demography (Rebecca Sear). was spurred by the fact that for several disciplinary backgrounds to an audience

GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER 7 DECEMBER 2009 These talks also provided an important A keynote address was given by In sum, these talks provided a thought- historical and social context to how Daniel Nettle on the necessity of provoking range of responses to the title academic disciplines might hope to thinking about human behaviour and of the conference, and will no doubt develop within a Darwinian framework affairs in a “Tinbergian” sense. This talk stimulate further debate. We are and within the UK university system (for also provided healthy and important currently in discussions to organize a example, delegates were shown how this cautionary notes for scholars within special issue of the Journal of Evolution- has begun to bear fruit in the field of HEBS and HSS. This was followed by a ary Psychology, to which speakers at the demography). The main series of talks “question time” session with a panel event will be invited to contribute ended with an analysis of how global comprising all the speakers which manuscripts. security concerns, a central topic in resulted in active debate around the core politics, could demonstrably benefit topics of the meeting. A wine reception Qazi Rahman from models of evolutionary change at the end of the evening resulted in even (Queen Mary, University of London) (Dominic Johnson) further discussion. Tom Dickins, (University of East London)

The conference began with a keynote public policy, William Brown (Brunel Why Aren’t the Social address by Michael Tomasello (Max University) on evolutionary aesthetics, Planck Institute), who gave an excellent Tim Lewens () Sciences Darwinian? overview of how evolutionary principles on history, Robin Dunbar (University of can illuminate aspects of human devel- Oxford) on human behaviour, and opment, behaviour, cognition, language Robert Layton (University of Durham) Held May 2009 at University of Cam- and culture. There then followed two on co-evolution and anthropology. Im- bridge and supported by a grant from days of talks that took a range of per- portant notes of caution were expressed The Galton Institute spectives. Invaluable historical analyses by Tom Dickins (University of East were provided by Jamie Tehrani London) and Daniel Nettle (University (University of Durham) on social anthro- of Newcastle), while Ruth Mace and pology, Geoffrey Hodgson (University George Perry (University College Lon- Why aren’t the social sciences Darwin- of Hertfordshire) on economics and don) presented findings from a survey of ian? While Darwin’s theory of evolution Felix Riede (University of Aarhus) on attitudes towards evolution amongst has permeated through the biological archaeology, while Raymond Corbey social science students. sciences during the last 150 years since (Leiden University) and John van Wyhe

the publication of The Origin of Species, (University of Cambridge) gave philoso- the various branches of the social sci- phical and historical perspectives on the Collectively, these talks provided an ences - social anthropology, archae- traditional divide between the social and illuminating and thought-provoking ology, sociology, psychology, econom- natural sciences. range of responses to the title question of ics, linguistics - have generally resisted the conference, and will no doubt stimu-

evolutionary explanations of human be- late further debate in the future. The haviour, cognition, culture and society. Other talks presented state-of-the-art conference has also generated a forth- The aim of this conference, held at the overviews of current evolutionary social coming special issue of the Journal of Leverhulme Centre for Human Evolu- science research: Robert Foley Evolutionary Psychology, to which tionary Studies, University of Cam- (University of Cambridge) on genetics speakers at the event will contribute pa- bridge and supported by the Galton In- and paleo-anthropology, Stephen Levin- pers. My co-organisers (Robert Foley, stitute (along with the Centre for Re- son (Max Planck Institute) and Simon Michael Lamb and Djuke Velduis) and I search in the Arts, Social Sciences and Kirby (University of Edinburgh) on evo- would like to thank all of the attendees, Humanities and the Mellon Foundation), lutionary linguistics, Alex Mesoudi speakers and helpers who contributed to was to explore possible answers to this (Queen Mary, University of London) on making this such a successful event. question. Twenty speakers from a range cultural evolution, Lewis Wolpert of disciplinary backgrounds gave talks to (University College London) on the evo- lutionary roots of supernatural beliefs, an audience of almost 100 attendees, with talks ranging from historical and Gillian Bentley (University of Durham) philosophical analyses to presentations on health and medical-related research, of cutting edge contemporary research in David S. Wilson (Binghamton Univer- Alex Mesoudi the evolutionary social sciences. sity) on educational programmes and (Queen Mary University of London)

DECEMBER 2009 8 GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER Szoltysek set out the reasons why he social units. In the discussion which believed a more reasoned theoretical followed it was noted that one reason a structure was necessary for fertility de- teleological general theory has been so Fertility declines in the clines past, present and future, in effect ‘addictive’ to researchers is that the au- past, present and future: the raison d’être of the conference. The dience for their arguments is often com- what we don’t know and key debate, that would run throughout prised of policy makers and a more sim- what we need to know the following presentations and discus- plistic overview resonates well within an sions was established here; whether action-oriented policy world. However, there is greater utility in academic en- arguments were set out that whilst there University of Cambridge deavour working towards a general the- always remains some variance at the th 15-17 July 2009 ory and framework within which all fer- different stages of the fertility transition tility declines can be located, or in re- broadly there is still a transition between jecting this approach to focus more on high and low fertility states so some Report of the British detailed specific declines with their own generalisation remains possible. Society for Population Studies unique sub-narratives. and Max Planck Institute for Bob Woods, as discussant of Szreter’s paper, noted that an important considera- Demographic Research workshop Dirk van de Kaa opened the first session with his paper on ‘Demographic tion was that the debate on holding a transitions’. He made two key argu- general theory does not reflect an episte- ments. First, there does not appear to mological crisis and should be seen as a The aim of this meeting was to gather have been just a single demographic sign of strength of the discipline. He an inter-disciplinary and international ‘revolution.’ Indeed the phrase reiterated scepticism that the SDT is of group of researchers to discuss what is ‘revolution’ is misleading, implying a equivalent magnitude to the FDT and known about fertility decline, what re- transition from one period of stability argued that the term ‘transition’ may mains unknown, and how might the un- and equilibrium to another. Fertility become devalued if it is used in the for- known become known and better under- change is perhaps best seen as a contin- mer context as, while the plausibility of stood. Speakers, discussants and partici- ual process of change, within which the changes wrought during the FDT pants were chosen to span the different there have been two fairly discrete com- being reversed remains extremely im- ‘strands’ of fertility decline research, ponents: the First Demographic Transi- probable, the same cannot be said of the historical, contemporary developed and tion (FDT) and the Second Demographic changes associated with the SDT, such contemporary developing, and the differ- Transition (SDT). Secondly, he argued as below replacement fertility. that it is necessary to maintain an over- ent disciplines working on this problem, Sebastian Klüsener began the second arching demographic perspective so that including demographers, economists, session by presenting a paper co- evolutionary biologists and anthropolo- if research focuses just on the middle- authored with Joshua Goldstein entitled range demographic processes of fertility, gists. The workshop was attended by 60 ‘Culture strikes back: a geographic mortality or migration, this may well active researchers in the field of fertility analysis of fertility decline in Prussia’. produce a misleading picture. research, who listened to 17 papers; 9 This presentation suggested that the ba- discussants added their comments to the Simon Szreter’s paper on ‘Questions, sic conflict concerning a general theory proceedings. questions, questions! The expanding of fertility decline has been between The organisers, Eilidh Garrett, Re- universe of research on fertility declines’ cultural diffusionists and economists. becca Sear and Mikolaj Szoltysek would argued that a broad theoretical frame- From a geographical perspective the like to extend their grateful thanks to the work was not needed. It further argued cultural diffusion explanation of changes sponsors of this meeting, the British that a general theory of fertility has been in fertility behaviour across space seems Society for Population Studies, Joshua a ‘teleological drug’ with substantial to be more effective. The authors had Goldstein and the Max Planck Institute intellectual opportunity costs. Instead of used a panel model in combination with for Demographic Research, the Cam- seaching for a general theory, research Ordinary Least Squares approaches, to bridge Group for the History of Popula- should be conducted acknowledging the look at changes in variables, rather than tion and Social Structure and the Galton three principles of the historical method: at absolute values, taking their data from Institute; to Anne Shepherd, Alison Har- i) difference, both within the past and historic Prussia. The results broadly sup- vey and Brigit Moeller for their invalu- between the past and the present ii) con- ported the cultural diffusion hypothesis, able administrative support; and to Rich- text and iii) process. Whilst data has indicating that hotspots of decline in ard Smith for hosting the conference in been most easily collected at the level of regional centres led the transition to the Department of Geography, Univer- national and sub-national administrative lower fertility, with slower rates of sity of Cambridge. units, Szreter considered ‘communic- change occurring in peripheral rural and By way of introduction Mikolaj ation communities’ to be more important Catholic administrative units.

GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER 9 DECEMBER 2009 In the question and answer session tween cultural and economic theories of guing that the central importance of any which followed an analogy was drawn fertility decline may be seen from the factor ultimately can only rest upon the between the cultural diffusionist view of perspective of individual innovation or exclusion of rival hypotheses. Wider dis- changing fertility and an incoming tide. adaptation. The suddenness of the cussion considered the need for demogra- This highlighted, first, the underlying changes around 1800 might suggest that phy to move beyond its focus on central difficulty of measuring the broader ‘tide’ the cultural response to the economic tendencies in population data and into the from observations of individual waves changes occurring at that time was actu- study of the intra-population diversity in and, second, the difficulty of explaining ally influenced by the intellectual ideas of fertility histories. the underlying causal process from sim- Malthus. Evidence of the dissemination The late morning session focused on ple observations at the surface level. A of his theories suggests, however, that evolutionary approaches to fertility with particular problem for those wishing to this is actually extremely unlikely to have presentations from Lesley Newson and use a cultural diffusion model is the lack been the case. Ruth Mace. Both provided a brief over- of acceptable data. While economic vari- The second day of the conference was view of evolutionary models of human ables, which can be more robustly meas- opened by a joint presentation from behavioural diversity with specific regard ured, can be controlled, a potentially ma- Frans van Poppel and David Reher. to variation in human reproductive strate- jor assumption may be made that the un- They discussed recent analyses of historic gies. It was argued that the rich theoreti- observed residuals can simply be attrib- demographic trends in Spain and the cal nature of this literature has much to uted to cultural processes. For example it th th Netherlands during the 19 and 20 cen- offer population scientists focusing on was noted that in the UK fertility change tury. Using linked reproductive histories fertility trends, whether their focus is spread out in a similar fashion from both from both regions, fertility trends were historical, contemporary developing or London and Lancashire, yet there were analysed at the individual rather than at contemporary developed populations. significant differences in the process and the aggregate population level. The role Newson then outlined the ‘kin-influence context between the two areas. of child survival as a stimulus for repro- hypothesis’ for demographic transition; Neil Cummins and Greg Clarke then ductive change, the use of stopping and arguing that fertility decline is set in mo- jointly presented their work ‘Malthus to spacing strategies to achieve reproductive tion by the dissolution of extended-kin modernity: England’s first fertility transi- goals, and the timing of change were all networks associated with modernisation, tion, 1760-1800’. From a historical per- discussed. Most importantly, these analy- leading to a gradual erosion of pro-natal spective, they argued, there were two ses demonstrated strong evidence for norms in favour of alternative social re- main events: the industrial revolution and replacement fertility, with child deaths wards. Evidence from role-play experi- the demographic transition, but the inter- associated with an elevated likelihood of ments were used to support this model; action between the two has perhaps not later births. In this light, fertility limita- showing that individuals playing the role been sufficiently appreciated to date. Us- tion is seen as strategy to protect families of friends rather than kin were less likely ing data collected from 7,000 historic from the effects of increases in child sur- to offer favourable advice about repro- wills in south eastern England, it was vival. Following the presentation of these duction. Ruth Mace then provided an noted that prior to 1770 those with analyses, Reher provided further discus- empirical test of the influence of kin on greater assets had higher fertility but af- sion of the implications of this research the decision to use contraception in rural terwards the fertility advantage of the for demographic transition theory; argu- Gambia. In this case, fertility histories rich was lost and there was a systematic ing for the central importance of mortal- indicate that contraception is used pri- reduction of the fertility of the richer ity declines as a precursor to fertility re- marily as a tool to schedule births, rather strata of society. The timing of the duction and the persistence of small de- than to reduce the chance of conception. change suggests the influence of factors sired family size throughout European When controlling for individual socio- associated with the industrial revolution. history. demographic factors, there was little evi- However further analysis of this data, to dence that kin directly influence contra- Their discussant, Chris Wilson, establish what drove the decline in the ceptive uptake, either by their absence/ praised the use of longitudinal micro-data fertility of the rich, has proven to be in- presence or by acting as models for social in the comparative analysis of Spanish conclusive with regards to income, child learning. and Dutch fertility trends. He noted a survival and quality / quantity trade-off general agreement with their interpreta- Discussion of these papers was led by hypotheses. tions, and reinforced the call for further Sarah Walters. She further underlined As this session’s discussant, Stephan research linking childhood mortality to the potential for evolutionary models of Warg highlighted that changes in both individual fertility patterns in historical fertility to contribute new theories and cultural and economic domains would be demography. It was also stressed that methodologies to the study of demo- important as innovation of cultural values future studies should strive to test com- graphic transition. In particular, the non- would in part be determined by the socio- peting hypotheses for the precursor of teleological and broad comparative study economic context. The difference be- fertility decline with the same data – ar- of fertility patterns adopted by this ap-

DECEMBER 2009 10 GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER proach was commended. Walters then ferent, and that scholars of this subject is now low, and the policy implications outlined the need to tie together the ‘big would benefit from the overt reintroduc- that such a population movement would narratives’ of demographic transition, tion of the ideas of Jack Goody into their entail. such as the kin-influence hypothesis, with work. Dyson’s comments proved as pro- The final day of the conference was the intricate ‘sub-plots’ of regional fertil- vocative as the papers in some regards, opened by Maire Ni Bhrolchain, whose ity trends, which in extreme cases can sparking an intriguing discussion about presentation was on ‘Time and measure- eclipse the anticipated effects of local the relationship of mortality decline to ment in explaining fertility change.’ The social or economic shifts. Wider debate the fertility transition and the extent to pretext for this paper was, she argued, focused on the utility of evolutionary which England and Wales fitted the pat- that we (demographers) lack any system- models and how they should be inte- tern of a mortality fall preceding a de- atic treatment of time despite its central- grated with traditional demographic per- cline in fertility. ity to demographic processes. As demog- spectives. raphers we are concerned with establish- Session six saw Geoffrey McNicoll Sessions five and six of the conference ing causality and this is something that and Arland Thornton take up the chal- moved further into the worlds of contem- we are not able to do unless we establish lenge of the conference title in somewhat porary changes in fertility and the ideas a start date for a particular phenomenon. differing manners. McNicoll was keen to that underpin our understanding of it. The example cited was that of the baby highlight the links between policy and the Christine Oppong started proceedings boom, but there are other numerous ex- encouragement of the fertility transition with a paper entitled “Parental Percep- amples, such as when did fertility transi- in developing countries. He identified tions of Child Costs”. Based on her ex- tion begin in any particular country? four “legacies” of these efforts. These tensive ethnographic studies in Ghana in There is then the question of how we were: the responsiveness of the family the 1960s and 1970s, Oppong proposed should view demographic change – an unit, the organisation of communities at a that the behaviour in fertility control dis- approach viewing change as continuous local level, agency (in particular the rela- played by educated subgroups might be might very well yield different results to tive power of women within institutional regarded as innovative, particularly when a more episodic approach. A successful arrangements), and the actions of govern- such behaviour is situated within its gen- explanation of any fertility trend requires ments and authorities. He regarded these dered context and given the desire of a proper delineation of fertility in time as common to fertility transitions glob- parents to provide the best for any future and also indicators designed to measure ally, achieved in much of the developing children. From a more methodological fertility as the dependant variable. world through already-prevalent institu- perspective, she argued that multi- tional and cultural entities. Thornton also The second paper of the session on method, small scale studies could be assessed the global nature of aspects of ‘Where have all the children gone?’, pre- partly constitutive of a broader way of the fertility transition, with regard to the sented by Mike Murphy, called into understanding family planning and fertil- spread of developmental idealism. This question the validity of survey data. The ity choices amongst couples, stressing the was defined as a certain worldview, akin thrust of this paper was the discovery that parallels with Simon Szreter’s much- to the Fukayaman notion of western lib- in the General Household Survey (GHS) mentioned “communication communi- eral democracies having reached the end childlessness appeared to be being re- ties”. Ian Timaeus’ contribution contin- of history, via a path which other nations ported incorrectly. The problem Mike ued the theoretical thrust of the session, would inevitably follow. This made it found was that the proportion of women taking particular issue with the popular possible to look elsewhere in the world who reported being childless increased as classification of signs of fertility transi- and see how Europe used to be, a process their cohort increased in age. The conclu- tion into stopping and spacing behaviour. of “reading history sideways”. Such an sion Mike came to was that the explana- His suggestion was that we think rather ideological position comes with certain tion had to be the conscious concealment of “postponement”, as a means of under- ethical problems, but Thornton chose to of adult children perhaps due to estrange- standing the flexibility of couples’ inten- highlight how widespread certain values ment or boredom with the length of the tions as well as the unpredictability with associated with fertility and modernity survey. The implication of this is not which circumstances can change. Far were in a geographically and economi- good for the use of survey data. If there from being a mere matter of semantics, cally disparate selection of nations, draw- is a problem with the reporting of fertility such an amendment to the concept of ing from his surveys the conclusion that then it is hard to be confident in the re- ‘spacing’ provided a real means of under- such changes were viewed as positive by sponses given to more complicated ques- standing fertility decline. respondents. The discussant Laura Ber- tions. Both papers met with a broadly appre- nardi took up a number of these themes ciative response, and the discussant, Tim of complex change, and the way in which The discussant Jan Hoem commented Dyson, was keen to highlight a point both community transmits change, calling also on Maire’s paper by suggesting that as presenters had made: that the African for a consideration of migration from demographers we should attempt to get at experience of fertility was distinctly dif- high fertility areas to those where fertility what we are actually looking at and not

GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER 11 DECEMBER 2009 adjust measures designed for other pur- David Coleman on ‘The future of repro- gender cross-disciplinary discussion poses, and that using individual level data duction: an interdisciplinary challenge’. and cross-fertilisation of ideas were cer- and running hazard regression models is They began by outlining the problems tainly fulfilled. a useful approach; in doing this, he demographers face when trying to predict pointed out, it is also possible to contrast future fertility trends such as the high Report contributors: cohort and calendar time. He then ques- levels of divergence, increasing levels of Melanie Frost, Eilidh Garrett, David tioned whether the implication of Mike’s childlessness and the decline of the larger Lawson, Paul Mathews, Rebecca Sear findings could be that we should stop family. An important question then iden- and Catherine Sumnall using survey data entirely, but asked what tified was ““Why we bother to have chil- would be left if we were to give up on dren at all?”. In the modern developed BSPS would also like to take this op- survey data. The answer given was that world it seems to be a mark of material portunity to again thank The Galton registers alone would be left and thus irrationality to have any children. Several Institute for their generous financial everyone would be forced to analyse possible explanations for continued child- support for the Annual Conference. Scandinavian countries. Mike’s response bearing (despite its apparent irrationality) was that he was trying to draw attention were mooted. There seems to be a bio- to the problems with survey data in order logical need to nurture and motherhood that they might be solved. He said that appears to be instinctive. These possibili- Richard Allen Soloway histories must be validated, but they are ties generated many questions: ‘Will peo- 1934 - 2009 still absolutely indispensable. ple stop having children?’ ‘Are men actu- ally necessary?’ ‘Is the desire for children Galton lecturer, 1997, distinguished Tomas Sobotka followed with a paper fundamental?’ ‘Is one child enough?’ historian of the British eugenics move- on ‘Is the only way down? Many factors ‘Who will be the parents of tomorrow?’ ment, Richard Allen Soloway, Eugen behind contemporary very low fertility Basten and Coleman argued that such Merzbacher Distinguished Professor of are likely to be temporary’ in the final questions need to be addressed and al- History, University of North Carolina, session. He argued that there is still a though they are the type of questions Chapel Hill, died in May 2009 of metas- very strong desire for children and that which cannot be answered via traditional tatic melanoma. He produced two defini- lowest low fertility is far from inevitable. demographic forms of enquiry. tive works on Birth control and the In fact many factors are now likely to population question in England, 1877- increase fertility and the empirical floor To end the conference Paul Demeny, 1930 (1982) and Demography and de- may have been reached in the year 2000. in line with David Coleman’s suggestion generation: eugenics and the declining As evidence for his optimism Tomas that we need to think ‘outside the box’, birthrate in twentieth-century Britain pointed out that the number of people came up with some unusual possibilities. (1990), and several important articles. Of living in a country with a Total Fertility First, he suggested that parenthood could recent years his conscientious discharge Rate lower than 1.3 has been going down be turned into a profession. Then, in rela- of his responsibilities as Dean of the since 2000 after a year on year increase tion to solving the economic problems College of Arts and Sciences at Chapel from zero since 1990. The explanation associated with low fertility he proposed Hill regrettably curtailed his research for this, he argued, is a combination of that it might be possible to link pension activities, to which he had hoped to re- good economic conditions, immigration schemes to fertility or (even more turn on retirement. from high fertility countries and targeted bizarrely) that the value of a person’s

policy interventions. vote could be related to life expectancy Lesley Hall and that this could be calculated to take Paul Demeny, in discussing this paper, Wellcome Library children borne into account as well. A said that everyone is already convinced further suggestion he offered was that, that lowest low fertility is not inevitable. instead of assuming immigrants would However, “not being inevitable” is not The Galton Institute is compiling a take low skilled, poorly paid jobs, na- enough to prevent something from occur- database of members’ email ad- tional service could be reintroduced with ring in reality. He remarked that the dresses in order to inform members dispensation only being offered under European welfare states are already over- more efficiently of news and events extended and in trouble. They will have extraordinary circumstances; such as hav- ing a baby. at the Institute. The information will to make drastic cutbacks soon. Paul ar- not be shared with any other organi- gued that the personal answer to this cri- The organisers would like to end with sis would seem to be the accumulation of a vote of thanks to all speakers, discuss- sation. Please let the General Secre- assets and not having children. ants, chairs and participants for their var- tary have a note of your e-address at: ied and highly stimulating contributions. [email protected] The final paper of the conference was a Their hopes for the meeting of bringing a Thank you. joint presentation by Stuart Basten and diverse group of people together to en-

DECEMBER 2009 12 GALTON INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER