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The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics Vpart1 The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics vpart1 The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics Part 1: Visions from the history of data visualization (An Ideo-Graphic and Idiosyncratic View) The only new thing in the world is the history you don’t know. Harry S. Truman The Milestones Project The Golden Age of Statistical Graphics Sex: Male 1198 1493 Questions of Statistical Historiography Admit?: No Admit?: Yes 557 1278 Sex: Female Michael Friendly York University http://www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/friendly.html VIEWS, London, Nov, 2004 Color version of these slides: http://www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/Papers/views/ VIEWS, London, 2004 2 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics plan The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics milestone1 Outline and Plan for Today Part 1: Visions from the history of data visualization Milestones Project: Roots of Data Visualization The Milestones Project The Golden Age of Statistical Graphics Cartography Problems of Statistical Historiography early map-making → geo-measurement → thematic cartography Part 2: Tables & graphs: Some principles of graphical displays GIS, geo-visualization Graphical failures and successes Statistics, statistical thinking Graphical comparisons probability theory → distributions → estimation Corrgrams: rendering and variable order statistical models → diagnostic plots → interactive graphics Effect ordering for data display Data collection Part 3: Graphical methods for categorical data early recording devices Overview: Categorical Data and Graphics “statistics” (numbers of the state): population, mortality → census, surveys Methods for two-way frequency tables economic, social, moral, medical, ...statistics Mosaic displays and loglinear models for n-way tables Visual thinking Part 4: Wither thou goest? Visions of the future geometry, functions, mechanical diagrams, EDA SAS graphics: The power to grow? Technology Statistical graphics: Models for growth? paper, printing, lithography, computing, displays, ... Wider visions Conclusions VIEWS, London, 2004 1 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 3 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics milestone1 The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics milestone1 Milestones Project: Goals Comprehensive catalog of historical developments in all fields related to data visualization → collect detailed bibliography, images, cross-references, web links, etc. 220 milestone items (6200 BC – present) 240 images, portraits 140 web links (biographies, commentary) 250 references → enable researchers to study themes, antecedants, influences, trends, etc. Web version: http://www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/Gallery/milestone/ Present form: hyperlinked, chronological listing (HTML, PDF) Searchable by subject, content, author, country, etc. (LATEX→ XML) GFKL Paper: Friendly (2004) VIEWS, London, 2004 4 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 6 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics milestone1 The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics milestone1 VIEWS, London, 2004 5 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 7 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics milestone1 The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics milestone1 VIEWS, London, 2004 8 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 10 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics milestone1 The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics milestone1 VIEWS, London, 2004 9 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 11 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics milestone1 The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics milestone1 VIEWS, London, 2004 12 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 14 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics dupin The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics golden Beginning of Modern Data Graphics: 1800–1849 The Golden Age of Statistical Graphics Playfair’s linear arithmetic (1780–1800): line plot, pie chart, etc. Snow: map of cholera cases (Aug 31–Sep 8, 1854) → Broad Street pump. Adolphe Quetelet (1835) ,“average man” as central tendency in a normal curve. Moral, social and medical statistics collected systematically (1820–) Dupin: distributions of years of schooling; prostitutes in Paris. Broad Street Pump VIEWS, London, 2004 13 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 15 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics golden The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics golden cf. Water in Walkerton: Outbreak of E. coli contamination (May 16–22, 2000) → 6 died, > 2000 ill. Source: undetermined until Jan. 2001 No one thought to make a map! VIEWS, London, 2004 16 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 18 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics golden The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics album “The Best Statistical Graphic Ever Produced” Flow maps as visual tools Movement of people and goods was a consistent theme of most of Minard’s work Data represented both visually and numerically Extensive legends, describing how the information should be understood and interpreted Visual engineer for France: the dawn of globalization, emergence of the modern French state. E-J Marey (1878): “defies the pen of the historian by its brutal eloquence”. Funkhouser (1937): Minard, the Playfair of France. Tufte (1983): “multivariate complexity integrated so gently that viewers are hardly aware that they are looking into a world of six dimensions ... the best statistical graphic ever produced.” VIEWS, London, 2004 17 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 19 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics album The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics march The March Re-visited March on Moscow was part of a pair, along with Hannibal’s campaign Carte figurative et approximative du mouvement des voyageurs sur les principal Aug. 1869: Prussian army invades, Minard flees to Bordeau chemin de fer de l’Europe en 1862 (1865) [ENPC: 5862/C351] Personal meaning: horrors of war, the human cost of thirst for military glory. VIEWS, London, 2004 20 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 22 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics album The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics album Minard’s graphic inventions Population represented by squares, area ∼ population Why the Golden Age? ⇒ Visual center of gravity used to choose location for new post office Statistics as a discipline: 1st International Statistics Congress (1853) [Quetelet] 3rd ISC: Expo. & standardization of graphical methods (Vienna, 1857) la Societ´ e´ de statistique de Paris (1860) Royal Statistical Society (1860) Expansion of industrialization, trade, transport → government initiatives in data collection and analysis. Statistics: Numbers of the State Ministry of Public Works (France): Statistical Bureau (Emile´ Chasson) Similar efforts in Germany, Switzerland, etc. U.S. Census Bureau (Edward Walker)— first US census (1860) VIEWS, London, 2004 21 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 23 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics album The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics stigler L’Album de Statistique Graphique The pinnacle of the Golden Age of Graphics Stigler’s Law of Eponomy 18 volumes published 1879–1899 Les Chevaliers des Album All milestone items are attributed to one or more individuals, but it is hard to 1889: Gross receipts in theaters in Paris, 1848-1889 maintain a claim for a “first.” “No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer” (after Merton, 1973) Laplace first published the Fourier transform Poisson firts discovered the Cauchy distribution de Moivre and Laplace have priority for the Gaussian distribution Epononyms are conveyed by the community of scholars, not historians ⇒ All milestone items are attributed to one or more individuals, but it is hard to maintain a claim for a “first.” VIEWS, London, 2004 24 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 26 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics historiog The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics historiog What counts as a “milestone?” Any history, particularly one of “milestones,” must address the question of inclusion. Problems of Statistical Historiography We include innovations and developments in: Graphic forms Who gets credit? Stigler’s Law of Eponomy Statistical graphics: bar chart, line plot, scatterplot, boxplot, mosaic plot Cartography: isoline, choropleth What counts as a milestone? Graphic content: data collection, recording What is milestone “data?” Bills of Mortality, vital statistics, census Understanding through reproduction Measurement, recording devices How to display, visualize, search? Technology and enablement Reproduction: printing press, lithography Imaging: photography, motion picture Rendering: computing, video display VIEWS, London, 2004 25 c Michael Friendly VIEWS, London, 2004 27 c Michael Friendly The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics historiog The Past, Present and Future of Statistical Graphics miledata What counts as a “milestone?” Theory and practice Probability theory Summarization: estimation and modeling Exposure: EDA Awareness and use Theory and data on visual display Principles of graphics (Bertin, Tufte, Wilkinson, ...) Empirical studies— what works? Implementation and disemination Techniques available and accessible Printing, ppublication,
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