Central Asia- Analyst

BI-WEEKLY BRIEFING VOL. 16 NO. 19 15 OCTOBER 2014

Contents'' ' Analytical'Articles' ! 'TO'BE'ADMITTED'INTO'EURASIAN'UNION' ' ' ' '''''3!' Armen!Grigoryan! ! AFGHAN'PEACE'HOPES'AMID'GREEN>ON>BLUE'ATTACKS' ' ' ''''6' Naveed!Ahmad! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!! ! WARY'OF'PROTESTS,'TAJIK'GOVERNMENT'DISPLAYS'COERCIVE'POWER' '''10' Alexander!Sodiqov! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!' ! THE'SUNDRY'MOTIVATIONS'OF'CAUCASIANS'IN'UKRAINE'' ' ' '''14'' Emil Souleimanov ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Field'Reports' ' KYRGYZSTAN’S'RESPUBLIKA'AND'ATA>JURT'PARTIES'UNITE! ! !! !!18' Arslan!Sabyrbekov! ! !!! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! ! PACE’S'NEW'RESOLUTION'CRITIZICES'THE'GEORGIAN'GOVERNMENT'' ' ''20' Eka!Janashia! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!'

TAJIKISTAN’S'GOVERNMENT'BRACES'FOR'PROTESTS''' ! ! ! !!23' Oleg!Salimov!!!! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! ! !! OSCE'MINSK'GROUP'CO>CHAIRS'ENGAGE'ARMENIA'AND'AZERBAIJAN'' ''25' Erik!Davtyan!!!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! ' ' !!! ! ! ! !! ! !' THE CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASS ANALYST

Editor: Svante E. Cornell

Associate Editor: Niklas Nilsson

Assistant Editor, News Digest: Alima Bissenova

Chairman, Editorial Board: S. Frederick Starr

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is an English-language journal devoted to analysis of the current issues facing Central Asia and the Caucasus. It serves to link the business, governmental, journalistic and scholarly communities and is the global voice of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center. The Editor of the Analyst solicits most articles and field reports, however authors are encouraged to suggest topics for future issues or submit articles and field reports for consideration. Such articles and field reports cannot have been previously published in any form, must be written in English, and must correspond precisely to the format and style of articles and field reports published in The Analyst, described below. The Analyst aims to provide our industrious and engaged audience with a singular and reliable assessment of events and trends in the region written in an analytical tone rather than a polemical one. Analyst articles reflect the fact that we have a diverse international audience. While this should not affect what authors write about or their conclusions, this does affect the tone of articles. Analyst articles focus on a newsworthy topic, engage central issues of the latest breaking news from the region and are backed by solid evidence. Articles should normally be based on local language news sources. Each 1,100-1,500 word analytical article must provide relevant, precise and authoritative background information. It also must offer a sober and analytical judgment of the issue as well as a clinical evaluation of the importance of the event. Authors must cite facts of controversial nature to the Editor who may contact other experts to confirm claims. Since Analyst articles are based on solid evidence, rather than rumors or conjecture, they prove to be reliable sources of information on the region. By offering balanced and objective analysis while keeping clear of inflammatory rhetoric, The Analyst does more to inform our international readership on all sides of the issues. The Editor reserves the right to edit the article to conform to the editorial policy and specifications of The Analyst and to reject the article should it not be acceptable to our editorial committee for publication. On acceptance and publication of the edited version of the article, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of The Johns Hopkins University-The Nitze School of Advanced International Studies will issue an honorarium to the author. It is up to the individual author to provide the correct paperwork to the Institute that makes the issuing of an honorarium possible. The copyright for the article or field report will reside with the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst. However, the author may use all or part of the contracted article in any book or article in any media subsequently written by the author, provided that a copyright notice appears giving reference to the contracted article’s first publication by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University, Nitze School of Advanced International Studies."

Submission Guidelines: Analytical Articles require a three to four sentence Key Issue introduction to the article based on a news hook. Rather than a general, overarching analysis, the article must offer considered and careful judgment supported with concrete examples. The ideal length of analytical articles is between 1,100 and 1,500 words. The articles are structured as follows: KEY ISSUE: A short 75-word statement of your conclusions about the issue or news event on which the article focuses. BACKGROUND: 300-450 words of analysis about what has led up to the event or issue and why this issue is critical to the region. Include background information about the views and experiences of the local population. IMPLICATIONS: 300-450 words of analysis of the ramifications of this event or issue, including where applicable, implications for the local people’s future. CONCLUSIONS: 100-200 words that strongly state your conclusions about the impact of the event or issue.

Field Reports focus on a particular news event and what local people think about the event. Field Reports address the implications the event or activity analyzed for peoples’ lives and their communities. Field Reports do not have the rigid structure of Analytical Articles, and are shorter in length, averaging ca. 700-800 words.

Those interested in joining The Analyst’s pool of authors to contribute articles, field reports, or contacts of potential writers, please send your CV to: and suggest some topics on which you would like to write.

Svante E. Cornell Research Director; Editor, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University 1619 Massachusetts Ave. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, USA. Tel. +1-202-663-5922; 1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 3!

ARMENIA TO BE ADMITTED INTO EURASIAN UNION Armen Grigoryan

Russia’s President had his way as Belarus and Kazakhstan ratified the treaty on establishing the Eurasian Union, as well as agreed to admit Armenia. An agreement on the main controversy concerning Armenia’s admission into the Eurasian Union – the likely establishment of customs controls on the border with Nagorno-Karabakh – has supposedly been reached. Meanwhile, Armenia’s parliamentary opposition announced the beginning of a long-term protest movement but refused to criticize ’s expansionist policies.

BACKGROUND: The treaty on Just before the October 10 summit, Armenia’s accession into the Eurasian some vague statements about a Union was signed during the summit of “compromise” on the customs control the Supreme Eurasian Economic issue were made but no substantial Council on October 10. Just before the information concerning the nature of a summit, the treaty on the union’s possible arrangement is yet available. establishment entered its ratification phase; on October 3, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin endorsed the ratification adopted earlier by the , Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenka gave his endorsement on October 9, and on the same day the upper house of Kazakhstan’s parliament ratified the treaty, which now awaits President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s (Source: the Presidential Press and Information Office) endorsement. The treaty should enter Meanwhile, on October 10, Armenia’s into force on January 1, 2015. parliamentary opposition organized a Armenia’s previous attempt to sign the rally in Yerevan; different sources put treaty on establishing the union as a the number of participants at between founding member was unsuccessful. In 12,000 and 20,000. The Heritage Party’s May 2014, the presidents of Belarus, leader, Raffi Hovannisian, noted in his Kazakhstan, and Russia required that short speech that President Sargsyan customs control posts be established on ignored the people’s will by signing the the border between Armenia and treaty (some Russian media later Nagorno-Karabakh (internationally quoted Hovannisian’s statement and recognized as part of Azerbaijan) before misinterpreted the rally as if it had been Armenia joins the union, and the against joining the Eurasian Union). setting where that requirement was However, former President Levon Ter- voiced was rather embarrassing for Petrosian, head of the Armenian Armenia’s president Serzh Sargsyan. National Congress (ANC), repeated in ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 4! his programmatic address the notion he and may eventually attempt to amend voiced a few months earlier that the union’s statutes. Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Taking into account the existing Union was “irreversible,” and also controversies, as well as the uselessness denigrated the opponents of of Armenia’s membership from an membership calling them “twenty or economic point of view, Lukashenka’s thirty individuals having convulsions.” and Nazarbayev’s agreement to admit In general, the prolonged sarcastic Armenia was likely reached by a exchange between Ter-Petrosian’s combination of pressure and incentives current supporters in the ANC and his from Russia. While Belarus will receive former supporters who are opposed to a new financial assistance package, closer ties with Russia has in the recent Kazakhstan may have opted not to months become evidently ill-mannered. displease Putin at this moment, keeping In turn, Gagik Tsarukyan, leader of in mind recent Russian military Prosperous Armenia – the largest party exercises in the border regions. At the joining the protests – avoided same time, Minsk and Astana started addressing the demonstrators. seeking new opportunities in relations However, at a press conference a day with the U.S. and EU, looking for earlier he said he could consider the possible new alliances in order to possibility of running for president. counterbalance ’s ambitions. IMPLICATIONS: Even in the last They clearly understand that the few days before the October 10 summit, Eurasian Union’s perspective is dim in Belarus’s and Kazakhstan’s skepticism the longer run as there is hardly any towards Armenia’s membership prospect of including Ukraine. induced some hopes among the Concerning Armenia’s membership, government’s critics that a veto would hardly any chance remains for be applied. Both Lukashenka and preventing ratification of the Eurasian Nazarbayev take their countries’ Union treaty despite its sovereignty seriously and made several inappropriateness in relation to several strong statements about the constitutional provisions. The unacceptability of introducing a Constitutional Court is decidedly political component in the making of supportive of the current president, so the union, including Nazarbayev’s its approval should be expected. The statement that Kazakhstan would National Assembly, in turn, will ratify depart from it should its independence the treaty, probably with most of the be threatened. However, Putin’s view opposition’s votes in favor. The of the union as a geopolitical project is parliamentary opposition (with the rather obvious. Considering Armenia’s possible exception of about 10 MPs) is unequivocal loyalty to Russia, its not willing to displease Moscow in any admission into the union essentially way, while civil society structures means that Moscow gets a second vote outside parliament lack financial capacities, access to the media, and ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 5! other resources for gathering mass the Russian public in order to alleviate protests. popular discontent over increasing It remains to be seen to what extent economic and social problems. In this Armenia will relinquish its sovereignty perspective, the decline of the Russian to Russia, and how far it can go in economy due to international sanctions fulfilling Moscow’s demands. Examples and decreasing oil prices should induce of possible demands on the Russian decision-makers to concentrate international level include changing the their efforts on restoring relations with framework of conflict resolution in the West and on reviving Russia’s Nagorno-Karabakh with a perspective economy. However, there is reason to of advancing Russia’s policies; adopting believe that Putin takes the task of an overtly pro-Russian position reestablishing the in a concerning Ukraine (in fact, during the new form seriously. Such a disposition summit on October 10 Putin demanded suggests that Armenia will be used as a that union members develop a common tool of Russian domination in the approach); and a change of policies vis- region. à-vis Georgia. The latter’s ongoing At the same time, the potential for cooperation with the EU and NATO protests in Armenia may grow in the seriously irritates Russia’s leaders, and next few months, due to an expected while direct aggression has become less reduction in remittances transferred to likely, a reactivation of subversive Armenia and growing consumer prices. operations can be expected, including Additional information on the nature the incitement of tensions in Javakheti of the “compromise” on the customs and other regions with large minority control issue on the border with populations. Nagorno-Karabakh may also lead to an On the domestic level, Russia could increase in protest activity. However, demand that the be bearing in mind the attitude of the most awarded official status. Another vocal parliamentary opposition and the demand already expressed on several general population’s susceptibility to occasions, even by diplomatic staff, is Russian propaganda, there is little room to limit the freedom of expression for for developing awareness about opponents of Eurasian Union Armenia’s dependence on Russia as the membership and Russian policies in main source of the country’s problems, general, as well as the activities of especially if the opponents of Russian Western foundations, in line with policies are effectively silenced as Russian practices. suggested by Russian emissaries. CONCLUSIONS: A somewhat AUTHOR’S BIO: Armen optimistic estimation suggests that Grigoryan is an Armenian political Putin needed Armenia in the Eurasian scientist. His research interests include Union in order to remain a dominant post-communist transition, EU player within it, and to be able to report relations with Eastern Partnership a success – the union’s enlargement – to countries, and transatlantic relations. ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 6!

AFGHAN PEACE HOPES AMID GREEN-ON-BLUE ATTACKS Naveed Ahmad

On August 5, an Afghan in army uniform opened indiscriminate fire, killing a U.S. army major general besides wounding 15 coalition troops. One German brigadier general and two Afghan generals received non-fatal bullet injuries. Green-on-blue attacks are the most alarming trend in Afghanistan, which has forced ISAF to instruct each soldier to carry a loaded weapon when amongst Afghans. The most recent attack casts a serious shadow over Afghanistan’s stability after NATO hands over internal and external security to Afghan security forces. Even the unprecedented news of two opposing presidential candidates reaching a power-sharing deal offers little hope.

BACKGROUND: Green-on-blue loss to the multinational as well as attacks refer to rogue Afghan security Afghan security forces turned rogue at personnel turning their weapons on the a military academy in Qarga in the ISAF troops. Also called insider outskirts of Kabul. In a related event on attacks, the incidents are rarely August 6, an Afghan police officer reported as the multinational troops poisoned his colleagues in southern have adopted a policy of non-disclosure. Uruzgan province, 370 kilometers south According to conservative figures, over of Kabul, killing seven. Leaving aside 50 ISAF troops have died in such casualties among its foreign contractors attacks since 2012. The ISAF figures and fellow Afghans employed in the exclude attacks on contractors, hired for security services, ISAF has lost over various types of missions in 2,100 troops so far. Prior to the death of Afghanistan. Major General Harold Greene, insurgents had managed to hit a C-17 jet carrying General Martin Dempsey with rockets fired from the outskirts of Bagram base on August 21, 2012. Such a daredevil attack could not have been possible without information leaked from within the Afghan military personnel. After over a decade of operations and (Source: US Army) training funded by the ISAF member Three days after Germany renamed its states, the trust deficit has only mission training instead of combat, the increased in Afghanistan. In March soldier that would inflict the heaviest 2012, Army Staff Sgt Robert Bales killed ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 7!

16 Afghans, mostly women and troops invading the homes of suspects children, shooting from a close range at night has been perceived as a lack of with his official automatic weapon. respect for Afghan sensitivities Night raids and “collateral damage” regarding privacy and family pride. inflicted by drone attacks are also only The Christian Science Monitor fanning the hate. In 2012 alone, reported reported in September 2011 that incidents of green-on-blue attacks sometimes the number of daily night claimed the lives of 44 U.S. forces, the raids soared to 40 across the war-torn highest number recorded since October country, affecting some 14,600 families 2001. However, this year has seen some in terms of displacement, harassment of the top ISAF personnel injured or or loss of family members from arrests killed in insider attacks. or deaths. ISAF itself admitted to Though the perpetrators of such attacks having killed more than 1,500 Afghan have rarely been proven to be Taliban civilians from 2010 to 2011. This has led operatives, affiliates or sympathizers, to widespread criticism, including from U.S. allies and former President Hamid the foreign security conglomerate has always given greater credence to the Karzai. ownership claims of the elusive Taliban The consequence of these recruitment chief Mullah Omar. As a result, not policies and security strategies have not only have certain training programs been contained to the battlefield and been dropped or cancelled but intense the Pentagon but U.S. taxpayers have screening regimes have also been paid a bill of over US$ 20 billion, spent imposed on the Afghan security forces. on training 350,000 Afghan nationals However, Afghan security experts employed in the armed forces as well as believe that the hasty recruitment of other security agencies. troops to double the army’s size in 2009 Pakistan’s full-scale operation in is also partially to blame. Lacking volatile Waziristan also has sufficient numbers of interested implications for the ISAF troops as candidates, the campaign focusing on well as the newly installed young and jobless citizens was administration in Kabul. According to conducted in popular city squares in the Pakistani authorities, over 10,000 country, without due screening process. militants took advantage of the sparse Even some NATO officials privately security across the Durand Line, admit that infiltration stood a great offering a major boost for Mullah chance and the Taliban benefited from Omar’s exhausted militia. Though the “low hanging fruit.” Afghanistan has continued to accuse IMPLICATIONS: Security and Pakistan of cross-border artillery political analysts agree that ISAF shelling, the ISAF command has so far troops’ night raids and drone attacks backed Pakistan in its much-delayed have created more trouble than benefits military campaign. Besides the for the much-desired de-radicalization Haqqani group leadership, Mullah and peace-building processes. U.S.-led Fazlullah who heads one of the three ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 8! factions of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan is and means to confirm through ground also taking refuge in eastern intelligence what U.S. satellite imagery Afghanistan. As Pakistan’s army is says about a suspect location. The setting up a cantonment and a political national forces will have to make the package for the integration of semi- Afghans feel that the actual handover autonomous tribal areas, the militants of security affairs has been shifted to will find it safer to camp in eastern and their compatriots. southern Afghanistan while carrying The trend of green-on-blue attacks may out hit-and-run operations against worsen with the thinning out of ISAF Pakistani and Afghan or U.S. troops. troops, leaving behind the Americans as The fundamental question today the most visible targets. The loss of a remains how much of an impact the two-star general recently after dozens reduction of the U.S. military footprint of fallen troops in such attacks put a would have for Afghanistan’s security greater strain on the nerves of Pentagon situation. The September attack near strategists. the U.S. embassy suggests the contrary. CONCLUSIONS: If any The Taliban’s ability to penetrate deep conclusions can be drawn from the inside Kabul’s exclusive district shed emergence of the Islamic State after some light on the bleak scenarios likely years of sectarian violence in Iraq, to emerge after NATO troops leave the Washington must learn to give greater country. The number of U.S. troops space to domestic political elements, remaining post-2014 will only be empower the local military command sufficient to conduct strategic to make optimal use of sophisticated operations, rather than counter-terror equipment available to them and campaigns. restrain itself to a responsible advisory The emerging security landscape role. Throughout the Karzai decade in depends largely but not entirely on the Afghanistan, the U.S. has number and equipment of Afghan micromanaged the vital issues while security forces but also their the politicians have acted apathetically. professionalism and commitment to In view of political realities, the stay neutral in an atmosphere charged National Unity Government must act with ethnic and sectarian hatred. The with greater pragmatism. Alongside the National Unity Government in Kabul steadily rising Taliban outreach, rogue has tough tests ahead with no time elements in the Afghan army can pose spared for a political honeymoon. a threat similar to that emerging in For Washington too, it is time to take a Iraq. To keep matters manageable, more pragmatic view of Afghan Kabul needs to send more positive realities. The ISAF troops may leave signals to Islamabad while the country soon but the U.S. military communicating its concerns through will continue to “advise” the Afghans diplomatic channels instead of public on counter-terror operations. The local statements. While the Obama security forces will have limited time administration adopts a low profile, the ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 9!

Afghan government must fill the void by taking bold decisions and discrediting the Taliban allegation that they are puppet rulers. AUTHOR’S BIO: Naveed Ahmad is an investigative journalist and academic, focusing on security, diplomacy, energy and governance. He reports and writes for various global media houses and think-tanks. He can be reached at [email protected]; and Twitter @naveed360.

! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 10!

WARY OF PROTESTS, TAJIK GOVERNMENT DISPLAYS COERCIVE POWER Alexander Sodiqov

An exiled Tajik opposition leader recently promised a mass demonstration against the regime of President Emomali Rahmon who has ruled the Central Asian nation since 1992. Although local analysts shrugged off this statement as lacking credibility, the country’s security services reacted with a series of disproportionately harsh measures. Does the Tajik opposition in exile really have enough support and resources to mobilize large-scale popular protest? What explains the heavy-handed approach taken by Tajik security services in preventing the rally?

BACKGROUND: On the last day of regime” in Tajikistan. He became an September 2014, Umarali Quvvatov, a ardent critic of Rahmon, travelling fugitive businessman-cum-opposition across Russia and mobilizing support leader called on Tajikistan’s population for his group among Tajik migrant to take part in an anti-government workers. In late 2012, he was detained in demonstration to be held in Dushanbe Dubai on Tajikistan’s request where the on October 10. Drawing on nationalist, authorities wanted him on charges of Islamic, and democratic discourses at business malpractice. After a court in the same time, Quvvatov claimed in a Dubai rejected Dushanbe’s demand to YouTube video that the time was ripe have the businessman extradited, he for the people to rise against Rahmon. returned to Russia and started a Claiming that the strongman had massive campaign to strengthen his ignored an earlier demand to step profile via social media networks. down, Quvvatov announced that the “people’s opposition” was determined to “rid the country of tyranny.” Quvvatov is a former entrepreneur who amassed a fortune by trading oil products, including supplying fuel to ISAF troops in Afghanistan. After one of Rahmon’s relatives allegedly took over his lucrative business, Quvvatov fled the country and founded Group 24, (Source: Kremlin.ru, Wikimedia Commons) an opposition movement seeking to Starting on October 1, Quvvatov’s call bring down what he calls the “criminal for a mass rally was disseminated via ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 11!

YouTube, Facebook, and Russian- Group 24 was managed by “criminals language social networks, rapidly living abroad, who are wanted in becoming the favorite topic for Tajikistan for a number of crimes.” On discussion among many Tajik users of the same day, the Prosecutor-General’s these media. In several follow-up Office announced that Quvvatov’s videos and social media posts, statements qualified as “public calls to Quvvatov claimed that “thousands” of overthrow the government” and his supporters in Tajikistan were ready suggested that Group 24 should be for the demonstration and urged the banned as an extremist organization. country’s military and security services On October 8, police checkpoints along to “join the people” when the event major roads to Dushanbe were starts. reinforced with armored military The authorities responded to vehicles and riot police officers. One Quvvatov’s statements with a series of day before the rally was supposed to harsh measures. On October 4, riot take place, on October 9, the Supreme police blocked off the central square in Court banned Group 24 as an Dushanbe – where the rally was to “extremist organization,” warning that happen – and practiced riot control and members of the group as well as anyone dispersal techniques, using rubber producing or disseminating print, batons and water cannons. It was also video, or audio materials about the announced that police and all of the group were subject to criminal country’ security agencies were put on a prosecution. At the same time, the high alert. Prosecutor-General’s Office promised On October 5, in an attempt to halt the to pardon any Group 24 members who dissemination of information about the quit the organization. On the same day, rally, the authorities blocked local the authorities ordered mobile phone access to more than 200 websites, operators to switch off SMS services notably YouTube, Facebook, throughout the country and dispatched VKontakte, several news portals, and dozens of security officers to warn dozens of anonymizers used to bypass students at major universities and high internet restrictions. Tajikistan’s schools in Dushanbe against attending northern Sughd province, home to the rally. about one-third of its population, was There was no demonstration in the entirely disconnected from the internet. Tajik capital on October 10. Within the In key mosques in Dushanbe, imams next several days, the authorities told thousands of men arriving for Eid unblocked websites and reactivated al-Adha prayers to be wary of SMS services across the country. “criminal” groups calling for anti- IMPLICATIONS: It appears that government protests and threatening Quvvatov’s claims about an impending peace in the country. anti-government rally were little more Then, on October 7, the country’s than an attempt to mislead potential Interior Minister told journalists that supporters about the strength of the ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 12! exiled opposition. It is also possible that In addition, many analysts maintain while calling for “Ukraine-like” unrest that the very idea of anti-government in Tajikistan, Quvvatov was hoping protests is highly unpopular in that the authorities would respond to Tajikistan where the memory of the his calls in a way that would provoke civil war in the 1990s still haunts the other groups and individuals to join the society. Over the last decade, the ranks of opposition. The exiled government has worked hard to businessman’s account of why the persuade the populace that any public promised rally in Dushanbe did not expressions of political dissent threaten happen can hardly be described as peace and risk pushing the country back credible. Late in the day on October 10, into violence. Following recent protests Quvvatov announced that the in Khorog in the country’s east, the demonstration had been cancelled after government introduced harsher a “reliable source” in the Tajik criminal penalties for attending president’s office told him that China “illegal” rallies, while also making it dispatched 800 riot troops to help tackle easier for police to respond to such potential disturbances in Dushanbe. rallies brutally. There is little reason to believe that Hence Quvvatov’s promises of a exiled opposition groups have many “mass” antigovernment rally in the supporters in Tajikistan or the capacity Tajik capital lacked credibility from the to pose a real challenge to the current very beginning. Why, then, did the regime. Political analyst Saimuddin authorities choose to respond so heavy- Dustov does not currently see any handedly? Several plausible political force that would have the explanations have been proposed. Some financial, organizational, and experts maintain that the security intellectual resources necessary to agencies did not really take Quvvatov’s contest Rahmon’s hold on power. statements seriously but that they chose Another local analyst, Sulton Khamad, to “overreact” to re-affirm their loyalty suggests that although there are many to President Rahmon, while also prominent Tajiks living abroad who demonstrating their resolve to ward off hate the incumbent regime, they do not any assaults on Rahmon’s power to have much support within the country, opposition groups. Other analysts hold cannot coordinate their activities with that the “overreaction” had to do with other groups, and lack support from the fact that political elites in the foreign governments. It is notable that country lack credible sources of major domestic opposition groups, information about political moods and including the Islamic Revival Party the extent of popular support for (IRPT) and the Social-Democratic opposition groups in the country. Party (SDPT), condemned Quvvatov’s While these explanations may indeed call for a demonstration and urged their hold some truth, it appears that the supporters not to attend the event. Tajik authorities’ heavy-handed approach to the threat of an anti- ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 13! government demonstration emanates to their criticism on camera, and many a large degree from genuine fear of videos end with people demanding that public protests. First, people at the apex Rahmon step down. Thus, the security of political power in Tajikistan believe services might genuinely believe that that although the Central Asian Quvvatov’s group has a considerable country is different from societies in support base. the Middle East or Ukraine, it is not Third, Quvvatov’s supporters control immune from political processes major discussion groups on political similar to ones that led to the Arab developments in Tajikistan on Spring and the toppling of Viktor Facebook and Odnoklassniki, often Yanukovych’s regime. A recent wave steering discussions on these platforms of anti-government demonstrations in in directions that the authorities are not Russia and Hong Kong has reminded comfortable with. Although the Rahmon and his advisors that even the appearance of broad based support for very coercive and technologically savvy Group 24 as suggested by these states cannot always prevent outbursts platforms is deceptive and online of popular protest. Tajik security criticism does not always translate into services seem to be particularly alarmed political action, the authorities seem to by the similarities between the (mis)interpret Quvvatov’s positive techniques used by Quvvatov and those online image as an indication of used by protesters in Ukraine, Hong popular support for his rhetoric. Kong, and Russia. For instance, Quvvatov communicates with his CONCLUSIONS: The Tajik supporters via Zello, a walkie-talkie- security services’ heavy-handed like application that allows smartphone response to a minor opposition leader’s users to exchange short voice messages calls for anti-government protests quickly and anonymously. The demonstrates that the government in application was actively used by this Central Asian country is genuinely protesters in Ukraine, Russia, and afraid of broad-based public unrest. It Venezuela. Also, like opposition leaders also demonstrates that while the in Russia and Ukraine, Quvvatov is government understands that even the very active on social media networks most coercive states cannot always where he finds a large audience that the control popular protests, coercion government cannot control. remains its favorite tool for dealing with any public expression of dissent. Second, the security services which no doubt monitor Quvvatov’s online AUTHOR’S BIO: Alexander activity must have been alarmed by at Sodiqov is a PhD student at the least a dozen videos showing the University of Toronto. opposition leader’s meetings with hundreds of young Tajik migrant workers who are disillusioned and angry at Rahmon’s government. These individuals are not afraid of voicing ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 14!

THE SUNDRY MOTIVATIONS OF CAUCASIANS IN UKRAINE Emil Souleimanov

One attribute of the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas area has been numerous speculations on the involvement of foreign fighters on both sides to conflict. Amid the diverse body of volunteers and mercenaries involved in the war, Chechens and other North Caucasians have received particular attention due to their fame as fierce warriors, and because their involvement in the conflict on the side of pro-Russian forces has constituted solid evidence of Moscow’s military engagement in the war. Yet the fact that Caucasian volunteers participate also on the Ukrainian side, and the ambivalence toward the conflict locally in the North Caucasus, demonstrate the diversity of motives and incentives inducing Caucasians to fight in Ukraine.

BACKGROUND: News that conflict, Chechnya’s president Ramzan Chechens were involved in the Ukraine Kadyrov has made controversial crisis spread already in March, when a statements. On the one hand, he range of news agencies and locals refused to acknowledge the reported of “Caucasian-looking” units involvement of Chechens in the deployed in some areas of the Crimean clashes, boasting on one occasion that if peninsula. Some sources in Crimea Chechens had been involved, they spotted Chechens in the eastern would have long taken Kyiv. He has Crimean city of Feodosia, identified by also admitted that he is in no position their fatigues, equipment, and behavior to make sure there were no Chechen as members of kadyrovtsy units. Since volunteers whatsoever in the eastern then, local sources have reported of Ukraine clashes. On the other hand, Chechens in the eastern Ukrainian city Kadyrov has on various occasions of Donetsk on various occasions explicitly stated his readiness to order throughout mid-summer. Video footage the intervention of Chechen units in from a Donetsk street was released the Ukraine war against “fascists” displaying individuals speaking Russian should Putin call upon them (see the with a heavy Chechen accent. 06/04/2014 issue of the CACI Analyst. Soon thereafter, it was speculated that IMPLICATIONS: Journalists in dozens belonging to Chechen-manned Chechnya and Dagestan have reported units were killed during a failed siege of on local men being forced to the local airport. Sources in Chechnya “volunteer” in the Donbas war. and Dagestan reported that bodies of According to a local source, Dagestani local men were transported to their soldiers in the Buynaksk garrison of the homeland for burial. Throughout the Russian army have been compelled to ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 15! join pro-Russian units in eastern suspected of providing support to Ukraine; those refusing were routinely insurgents or because they were accused of treason and cowardice and relatives of insurgents, this has raised often discharged. Similar situations the pressure on would-be volunteers to allegedly took place in other areas of obey instructions. Dagestan, usually confined to the A range of sources indicate that dozens military garrisons stationed in the of South and North Ossetians have also republic. In the patriarchal Dagestani volunteered to the war. While many society, implications of such refusal North Ossetians appear to have joined would put immense social pressure on due to their feeling of loyalty toward Dagestani conscripts and officers, many Moscow, South Ossetians may have of whom chose to follow the informal volunteered in order repay Russia’s instructions and deploy to battlefields support during the 2008 Russo- in eastern Ukraine. Yet others have Georgian war. Some North Caucasian withstood the pressure and refused to fighters have revealed in interviews “volunteer” to a distant war. their incentive to become recognized as true Russian patriots in Russian public opinion. Data is scarce regarding the natives of the Northwest Caucasian republics in the Donbas war. We also lack information regarding the extent to which the “forced” volunteers have been promised soldier’s pay for their participation in the hostilities in eastern

Ukraine. (Source: Wikimedia Commons) Nonetheless, North Caucasians have According to Paul Goble, similar not only figured in the service of pro- mechanisms have been at work in Russian forces. Some have joined to the Chechnya, where recruitment offices ranks of Ukrainian forces, and given were set in some areas of the republic. the lack of leverage on the Ukrainian In the Chechen context, a member of side, this has taken place on voluntary the Chechen law enforcement in grounds. Kyiv’s lack of financial general and a kadyrovets in particular resources also suggest that it could not would, if discarded from military afford to pay mercenaries, and the service for whatever reason, become North Caucasians fighting on behalf of excluded from the protection of his the Ukrainian military are indeed comrades-in-arms. In turn, this would volunteers. Perhaps the most well- dramatically increase the risk of known case is the so-called Jokhar becoming a target for his or his family’s Dudayev International Peacekeeping enemies in blood feud. Given that Battalion, a force manned by dozens of many kadyrovtsy have been involved predominantly North Caucasian in extrajudicial killings, humiliation, volunteers that was formed shortly and injuring of their fellow countrymen ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 16! before the active clashes in the Donbas most casualties. In this unit, around a area waned. This unit is commanded by dozen Georgians participated, followed Isa Munayev, a nearly 50-year old by Azerbaijanis, Crimean Tatars, brigadier general of the Chechen Army Belarusians, and even a few Russians. and the military commandant of Yet no Chechens or North Caucasians Grozny, who following the seizure of whatsoever appear to have taken part in the Chechen capital city by Russian this unit. troops in 2000 migrated to Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly every According to some reports, this past military conflict has attracted battalion is manned by a relatively foreign fighters who sought to join large number of Chechens, mostly from belligerents on the ground due to noble émigré communities based in Austria, ideals or financial incentives. The France, Germany and some other EU Donbas war is no different. Still, the countries. In contrast to those with a participation of North Caucasians in strong Islamic background who have the war has a number of important travelled to Syria, the Chechen implications. First, if the war continues youngsters in Munayev’s unit are loyal after the current break, more North to the idea of a Chechen nation-state, as Caucasians would likely be ordered to suggested by the Ichkerian flags waved join the ranks of pro-Russian forces in over the battalion’s camps featuring a eastern Ukraine, and consequent wolf, the Chechens’ totem animal and casualties among them would likely Ichkeria’s national emblem. Munayev spark widespread public discontent and and his comrades-in-arms have often possibly also anti-regime protests referred to the North Caucasian among North Caucasians back home. peoples’ fight for independence from When it became known that dozens, if Moscow, reminding of the UNA- not hundreds of Russian soldiers had UNSO units, manned by Ukrainian secretly died in Ukraine, this caused nationalists, which took part in the public outrage across Russia and most First Chechen War of 1994-1996 as an likely contributed to curbing Moscow’s incentive for them to aid Ukrainian expansionist appetite in eastern patriots by voluntarily involvement in Ukraine. the war effort. Aside from Chechens, Second, even though some North according to some sources, Dagestanis, Caucasians might be fascinated by the Crimean Tatars, Ukrainians, current turn of Russian nationalism and Circassians, Azerbaijanis, Georgians, xenophobia away from them in the and others form the backbone of this direction of Ukrainians, their battalion. involvement in the Ukraine war will Aside from this unit, a number of hardly alleviate the deep anti-Caucasian Caucasians have formed part of the sentiments embedded in the Russian Donbas battalion, one of the Ukrainian society for decades. The refusal of military’s volunteer units that took many North Caucasians to participate intense part in the fighting and suffered in Donbas hostilities has demonstrated ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 17! that their sympathies in the military confrontation are not necessarily on the Russian side. Sporadic interviews with Chechens, Dagestanis and others reveal that – perhaps with the exception of Ossetians – the majority do not consider the Russo-Ukrainian confrontation to be their war. Third, notwithstanding immense pressure exerted upon Chechens within Chechnya, the Donbas war has remained deeply unpopular among the Chechen youth. Importantly, even though the Chechen resistance has weakened somewhat in the recent years and Kadyrov has used the Russo- Ukrainian crisis to manifest his unlimited personal loyalty to Vladimir Putin and Russia’s interests, Kadyrov still needs the fighting-fit Chechen units, particularly kadyrovtsy troops, to be stationed within Chechnya to hedge against the permanent threat of Chechen insurgents who may strike virtually any time. AUTHORS’ BIO: Emil Aslan Souleimanov is Associate Professor with the Department of Russian and East European Studies, in Prague, . He is the author of Understanding Ethnopolitical Conflict: Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia Wars Reconsidered (Palgrave Macmillan, 2013) and An Endless War: The Russian-Chechen Conflict in Perspective (Peter Lang, 2007). He can be reached at [email protected].

! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 18!

KYRGYZSTAN’S RESPUBLIKA AND ATA-JURT PARTIES UNITE Arslan Sabyrbekov

Recent news about the unexpected parliamentary mandates and according union of Respublika and Ata-Jurt to the legislation, can no longer parties, both represented in parliament, compete for an elected office. has generated a wide range of Furthermore, experts refer to the arrest speculations and has given a starting of Akhmatbek Keldibekov, former point for the parliamentary election Speaker of Parliament, as the most campaign of 2015. significant loss for the party. Due to his Last week, the official representative of worsening medical condition, the Ata-Jurt, Nurlan Shakiev, confirmed Bishkek court has temporarily released that talks are ongoing between the two him to get the needed medical parties regarding their unification. In treatment abroad and according to local his words, “leaders of the parties have experts, he is not likely to come back. agreed to unite, prior to the upcoming Unlike the endless criminal cases facing parliamentary elections and all the Tashiev’s Ata-Jurt party, Babanov’s procedures will be completed by the Respublika party has experienced a end of October.” The representative different problem, namely a serious refrained from commenting on the internal crisis with prominent members form of the new union, but taking into leaving and forming their own groups account the ambitions of the two in parliament. All these factors in leaders, Kyrgyzstan’s political scene combination do indicate a need to unite, might witness the emergence of a especially in light of the upcoming completely new political party, capable parliamentary elections in 2015. of mounting a challenge to the current According to the Bishkek-based power holders. Both party leaders, political commentator Mars Sariev, this Kamchybek Tashiev and Omurbek unexpected union of two political Babanov, refrain from commenting the forces is not driven by ideological issue. commonalities but rather by short term Local political analysts cite the negative goals, i.e. parliamentary mandates. developments surrounding both parties Babanov’s financial resources and his over the past four years as a driving image as a young, ambitious, liberal force behind the decision to unite. Ata- reformer among some parts of the Jurt’s position was heavily weakened public, and Tashiev’s support in the by the October 2012 arrest of its three south of the country, provide strong main leaders on charges of attempting chances for the new union to succeed in to violently overthrow the government. the next elections. As a result of the court decision, all three served short sentences, lost their ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 19!

Indeed, the elections of 2010 clearly importance for different and mainly demonstrated that in the Kyrgyz smaller political forces to unite. political context, the parties’ financial Kyrgyzstan’s current political landscape resources play a more essential role suggests that this process is becoming than their ideologies, programs and inevitable. So far, Ata Jurt and history. Respublika party, created only Respublika are the first parties to months prior to the elections, was able declare their plans to unite, but they are to secure 23 seats out of 120, performing surely not the last. better than one of Kyrgyzstan’s oldest The author writes in his personal political parties, Ata Meken, which capacity. The views expressed are his according to official figures allocated own and do not represent the views of few financial resources to the campaign the organization for which he works. and was barely able to pass the threshold. In addition, the current government’s inability to adequately address the socio-economic problems and the ongoing crisis in the energy sector will benefit the new union’s effort to build a platform in their upcoming election campaign. Commenting on the new union between the two parties, the United Opposition Movement’s leader Ravshan Jeenbekov does not rule out the possibility of it becoming another “White House” project aimed at creating a false opposition. In his opinion, the current coalition government has shown a complete inability to carry out any efficient public sector reforms. The situation in the southern regions of the country is escalating, with its residents facing gas and energy shortages on a daily basis. Therefore, to restore the trust of the southern electorate prior to elections, the state is rehabilitating influential politicians from the south and will use them for their own benefit. Nevertheless, the latest parliamentary elections with 29 parties rallying for 120 seats demonstrated the essential ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 20!

PACE’S NEW RESOLUTION CRITIZICES THE GEORGIAN GOVERNMENT Eka Janashia

The Parliamentary Assembly of the instead “try to paint a picture as Council of Europe’s (PACE) October correctly as it is.” 1st resolution on “the functioning of According to the document, despite the democratic institutions in Georgia” peaceful handover of power after the spurred debates in both Strasbourg and 2012 parliamentary and 2013 presidential Tbilisi. elections in Georgia, the arrest and The Georgian Dream ruling coalition prosecution of almost the entire UNM along with Michael Aastrup Jensen of leadership “overshadowed” the Denmark and Boriss Cilevičs of Latvia, democratic achievements the country the two PACE co-rapporteurs on has made since. Georgia, strongly opposed the The document describes the detention document while the United National in absentia of former President Mikheil Movement (UNM) opposition party Saakashvili, former Minister of supported it, backed by the majority of Defense David Kezerashvili and former Assembly members. Minister of Justice Zurab Adeishvili as The draft resolution built on a report well as the arrest of former Prime prepared by the co-rapporteurs as a part Minister and UNM Secretary General of PACE’s regular activity to observe Vano Merabishvili, former Defense the country’s performance regarding Minister Bacho Akhalaia and former obligations undertaken upon its Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava as accession to the Council of Europe regressive moves for Georgia’s (CoE) in 1999. democracy. Allegedly, UNM members of the The resolution expresses concerns over Georgian delegation were, through the the freezing of assets belonging to support of European People’s Party former government officials’ family (EPP), able to introduce amendments members and the length of Akhalaia’s to the initial version in order to make it pre-trail detention, asking the more critical of the Georgian authorities to replace detention on authorities. As a result, the originally remand with non-custodial “balanced” report has been changed precautionary measures. It takes note of into a “partisan” one, Jensen and the multiple charges filed against the Cilevičs claimed. Jensen termed the former president as well as the large product “completely a shame,” because number of possible instances of PACE should not be taking sides in criminal conduct on the part of former Georgia’s internal politics, but should government officials and emphasizes that no one is above law, but ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 21! meanwhile urges the authorities to process. As for the deported ensure that their trials are impartial. Meskhetian population, the document In this respect, the resolution recalls the underscores the setbacks in granting Assembly’s reservations regarding the citizenship to already repatriated independence of the judiciary and persons. administration of justice in Georgia. Before the resolution was adopted, PM While it welcomes positive signals such Irakli Gharibashvili expressed hope as the adoption of a comprehensive that EPP along with other members reform package aiming to establish a would not rely on the “groundless truly adversarial justice system, it also allegations” put forward by UNM. notices that the sensitive legal cases Later, commenting the already against opposition leaders has disclosed approved document, he said the “vulnerabilities and deficiencies” of the amendments to the resolution had been system. Thus, the Assembly suggests passed because of EPP’s “solidarity” further reforms of the judiciary and with UNM. “The wording that was prosecution service and recommends made in reference to Akhalaia and the Georgian parliament to achieve a Saakashvili – I do not deem it alarming. necessary compromise to elect all This is yet another attempt by the members of the High Council of UNM to fight against its own state, its Justice. own people,” he said. Another set of concerns refers to an Although the Assembly is deeply increasingly intolerant and concerned about “a polarized and discriminatory attitude especially antagonistic political climate” in towards sexual and religious minorities Georgia, the resolution has further and a lack of measures from all fanned the confrontation between GD stakeholders – the investigative and and UNM. Rejecting political prosecution agencies, politicians and motivations, GD declares that institutions with high moral credibility prosecution of former officials is a – to examine “hate crimes” and demand of Georgian people and that it condemn discriminatory sentiments. certainly should be met. The head of Regarding minorities, the Assembly the human rights committee in the also calls on the Georgian authorities to Georgian parliament and one of the sign and ratify the European charter of GD leaders, Eka Beselia, termed the regional and minority languages, which Assembly’s request regarding Akhalaia remains an unfulfilled commitment of an attempt to exercise pressure on the the country since its accession to CoE. independent court. The Assembly recommends the The adoption of a critical resolution on government to communicate the Georgia signifies that leading European charter’s provisions to the public political forces are principally against through an awareness campaign and the marginalization and demonization ensure the engagement of civil society, of UNM, as its disappearance from media and other interest groups in the political scene would enormously ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 22! damage democratic processes in the country. On the other hand, GD evidently maintains a tough approach reflected in its indifference to the PACE recommendations regarding the prosecution of opposition party members.

! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 23!

TAJIKISTAN’S GOVERNMENT BRACES FOR PROTESTS Oleg Salimov

Tajikistan’s government initiated yet the anti-protest exercise is a part of the another set of internet blocking scheduled routine. During the exercise, measures in the country on October 4. police in full military outfit armed with Several popular social networking shields and batons circled the main city websites were blocked for a week square Dousti and moved forward following speculations of planned anti- dispersing the supposed protest crowd. government protests in Tajikistan on At the same time, the Political October 10. As reported by local media, Advisory Council of the Islamic the northern part of Tajikistan was Renaissance Party of Tajikistan completely cut out of the internet and appealed to its supporters to refrain access was blocked to Facebook, from attending the planned protest Vkontakte (the Russian version of action. The party reminded of the Facebook), and several opposition and bloody consequences of Tajikistan’s media websites in the rest of the 1992-97 civil war, which started as anti- country until October 11. government protests and left about The government denies any 150,000 Tajiks dead. The Advisory involvement while internet providers Council also threatened to expel refer to unofficial orders from the Tajik members who will attend the action. A State Communication Services similar plea to the Tajik public was requiring blockage of certain websites. announced by the leader of the Tajikistan’s government recurrently Communist Party of Tajikistan Shodi blocks internet and opposition websites Shabdolov, who also warned about the during political events and public possibility of protests spiraling out of discord (see the 03/04/2014 issue of the control and the inadmissibility of CACI Analyst). another civil war in the republic, while dismissing the idea of unauthorized Asomiddin Atoev, the head of Tajikistan’s internet providers protest actions. association, is convinced that the Soon after the blockage of internet, the blockage of internet was a preventative Tajik Prosecutor General’s office sent a measure against opposition “Group 24” request to the Supreme Court to which called for a protest action in designate Group 24 as an extremist Dushanbe on October 10. organization attempting a coup in the Dushanbe city police conducted anti- country. Two days later, on October 10, protest exercises on October 4, which Tajikistan’s Supreme Court approved coincided with the start of the internet the request, designating Group 24 as an blockage. According to Tajik officials, extremist organization and banning all its actions and activities in Tajikistan. ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 24!

Tajikistan’s government also accuses Group 24 from building a platform of the leader of Group 24, Umarali supporters in Tajikistan. Second, due to Quvvatov, of fraud, kidnapping, and the high level of labor migration theft. The case was opened in 2012 with (almost one million according to damages estimated to millions of Tajikistan’s Ministry of Labor) dollars. The investigation of Tajikistan does not have the Quvvatov’s case is conducted by the unemployed masses that played a Anticorruption agency, infamous for its significant role during Arab Spring persecution of persons seen as revolutions. Third, Quvvatov, the only dangerous to Rahmon’s regime, the known face of Group 24, is not yet most prominent of which include Zaid perceived as a leader of Tajikistan’s Saidov and Mukhiddin Kabiri. opposition. The large opposition parties Quvvatov was arrested in December and groups, including the Islamic 2012 in the United Arab Emirates at the Renaissance party, the Communist request of Tajikistan’s government. He party, the Tajik Labor Migrants group, avoided extradition to Tajikistan and and the Tajik Youth for revival of was freed ten months later. Quvvatov Tajikistan group, all rejected the calls lives in exile since 2012 and his exact for public protests. Finally, although whereabouts are unknown. Tajikistan’s government took swift According to Quvvatov, Group 24 is actions to prevent protests, which also a named after 24 Tajik businessmen, included high number of policemen and politicians, and public figures who military vehicles in Dushanbe on founded the opposition organization in October 10, memories of the relatively 2011, united by the idea of replacing recent civil war remain a firm Rahmon and changing the course of argument against engaging in street political development in the country. protests to many Tajiks. However, Quvvatov refuses to release the names of the Group’s founders. A staunch critic of Rahmon, Quvvatov states his vision of economic and democratic development in Tajikistan, including reform of the agricultural and taxation sectors, elimination of corruption, improvement of educational system, and revision of international agreements unfavorable to Tajikistan. Eventually, no unsanctioned event took place on October 10. Group 24 failed to attract Tajiks to the protest action for several reasons. First, there is lack of clarity in whose interests the Group represents. This obscurity hindered ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 25!

OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS ENGAGE ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN Erik Davtyan

During the first session of the constitutional reform has gained wide Commission on Improvement of the support among the population. Constitution of Turkmenistan on Nurberdiyeva pledged that the August 6, President Berdimuhamedov Members of Parliament will hold stated a need to amend and introduce meetings and seminars to solicit public new articles to the country’s opinion on the constitutional reform. constitution. “With the development of market Speaking during the session, the economic relations and private Democratic Party of Turkmenistan’s entrepreneurship, there is a growing chairman Kasymguly Babayev noted necessity to improve issues of that a constitutional reform is a ownership and property relations to “historical necessity” and assured that bring them up to modern methods and the members of his party will run a full standards,” Nurberdiyeva said. scale public awareness campaign on the President Berdimuhamedov noted that issue. the Constitution, adopted in 1992, has The last time Turkmenistan’s successfully passed the test of time and constitution was amended under the that the deep socio-economic current administration was in transformations or changes the September of 2008, when Turkmen nation is undergoing over the Turkmenistan’s 2,500 member course of the latest years need to be legislative body, the Khalk Maslahaty written down and regulated by law. (people’s council), was abolished and its “The new articles in the Constitution powers were transferred to the will not only reflect today’s political, president and the Mejlis (parliament). economic and social issues, but also In addition, amendments were made to address the directions of the near and reflect the country’s commitment to distant future,” said the president. He market economic principles, various called for a need to bring the types of property ownership and Constitution up to contemporary world principles of democratic development. standards and noted that the upcoming constitutional reforms are aimed at In May 2014, President step-by-step development of socio- Berdimuhamedov signed a decree “On political relations and drawing clear establishment of the Constitutional lines among the legislative, judicial and Commission and its composition for executive branches of the government. improvement of the Constitution.” The Mejlis Speaker Akja Nurberdiyeva said The Mejlis will be the main state body the creation of this commission on responsible for organizational issues ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!15!October!2014! 26! and necessary documents in connection Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its with the upcoming constitutional International Relations Institute, and reform. The President suggested that the Turkmen National Institute for the Parliament creates two inter-sector Democracy and Human Rights under committees. The first committee, to be the President of Turkmenistan, were established by the Mejlis’ decree will tasked to study whether the upcoming receive, study and categorize the public constitutional amendments meet the recommendations to the Constitutional UN Human Rights Conventions to Reform Committee on improving the which Turkmenistan is a signatory, and constitution. While the draft reforms also suggested that these agencies raise are being prepared, the second the public awareness of the committee or Mejlis Working Group constitutional reform abroad. will consist of scientists, Deputy Chairmen in the oil and gas representatives of ministries, public sector, trade and economy were told to organizations, and experts and will do a create special working groups that will political, legal evaluation on the draft study the public input related to their project. The president mentioned that respective portfolios. Deputy Chairman the deep meaning and purposes of the Annamuhammet Gochyev covering constitutional reform should be economy and finance will provide explained to the public. financial support for conducting the Though the government has not constitutional reform and also prepare a released any timeline for the suggested proposal for the President’s constitutional reform, some sources consideration on any possible additions claim it will be completed sometime to the constitutional amendments close to the session of Yashulylar deriving from the economy, banking Maslahaty (Council of Elders) and finance sectors. scheduled for October 20, 2014. Once The president also recommended the reforms are prepared, the draft seeking the expert views of the local constitution will be published in all offices of international organizations state newspapers and internet websites on the new constitution draft. Satlyk for public discussion and input. Maysa Satlykov, the Deputy Chairman of the Yazmuhamedova, Deputy Cabinet of Ministers who covers the Chairwoman of the Cabinet of transportation and communications Ministers of Turkmenistan covering sectors in the government, was tasked culture, TV, and the press was tasked to make Internet communication to raise the public awareness through widely accessible in receiving public mass media in ways easily opinion on the draft constitution and understandable to the public. Deputy Chairman Sapardurdy Toylyev President Berdimuhamedov also gave was tasked with seeking the input of specific directives to various ministries the scholarly community. in support of the upcoming constitutional reform. Turkmenistan’s