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Emerging Energy Security Risks in Changing Energy Landscape

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Emerging Energy Security Risks in Changing Energy Landscape Emerging Energy Security Risks in Changing Energy Landscape APEC Energy Working Group October 2019 APEC Project: EWG 05 2019S Produced by Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Inui Building, Kachidoki 11F, 1-13-1 Kachidoki Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0054 Japan Tel: (813) 5144-8551 Fax: (813) 5144-8555 E-mail: [email protected] (administration) Website: http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/ For Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Secretariat 35 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Singapore 119616 Tel: (65) 68919 600 Fax: (65) 68919 690 Email: [email protected] Website: www.apec.org © 2019 APEC Secretariat APEC#219-RE-01.15 ISBN: 978-981-14-3389-4 Foreword Historically, oil has always been the primary focus of energy security discussions. However, this has been changing in recent years as awareness of the need to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has led to significant growth in the use of renewable energy. However, increasing the penetration of variable renewables in the power generation sector presents challenges to maintaining grid stability at the same time as it contributes to reducing carbon emissions. This study assesses the traditional and emerging risks in this changing energy landscape and examines the possible measures APEC economies could employ to mitigate these risks. This is the 15th report released as part of the Oil and Gas Security Studies (OGSS) series, which provides useful information to APEC economies on the latest developments regarding oil and gas security issues. I am hopeful that the research studies under the OGSS will encourage APEC economies to review and further strengthen their policies on oil and gas security. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the authors and contributors for their time and effort in undertaking this research study. However, I would like to emphasise that the contents and views in this independent research project only reflect those of the authors and not necessarily of APERC and might change in the future depending on unexpected external events or changes in the oil and gas policy agendas of particular economies. Kazutomo IRIE President Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre May 2019 i Acknowledgements We are grateful for the full support and insightful advices of Dr. Kazutomo Irie, President of APERC, Mr. James Michael Kendell, Senior Vice President of APERC, and Mr. Munehisa YAMASHIRO, Vice President/General Manager of APERC. This report was made possible through the cooperation of those who provided useful insights into the global energy market. The Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre would like to express its gratitude especially to those experts of the following institutes for having kindly provided the opportunities to exchange views and information: BP, Chatham House, Cheniere, Citi Group, Columbia University, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Embassy of Japan in UK, Energy Intelligence Group (EIG), International Association for Energy Economics, International Energy Agency (IEA), International Energy Forum (IEF), Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), OIES, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries secretariat, Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell of India, Royal Dutch Shell, Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd., Mitsubishi Corporation. We also would like to thank to experts that share their great insights and contributions to this publication. Authors IEEJ Dr. Ken Koyama (Managing Director and Chief Economist) ● Mr. Ichiro Kutani (Assistant Director and Manager) ● Mr. Takashi Matsumoto (Senior Coordinator) ● Mr. Shim Junyoung (Senior Researcher) ● Mr. Pyen Youngsoo (Senior Researcher) ● Ms. Kei Shimogori (Senior Researcher) APERC Ms. Fang-Chia Yoshika Lee (Researcher) Other Contributors Mr. James Michael Kendell (Senior Vice President of APERC) ● Dr. Ruengsak Thitiratsakul (Research Fellow of APERC) Editor Mr. James Michael Kendell (Senior Vice President of APERC) ii Table of Contents Foreword ................................................................................................................................................i Acknowledgement ............................................................................................................................... ii List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................iv List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................iv Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. v Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................ix Chapter 1 Update of traditional energy security risk for oil and natural gas ........................................ 1 Chapter 2 Emerging energy security risks in power supply market .................................................... 24 Chapter 3 Risk analysis ....................................................................................................................... 53 Chapter 4 Implications ........................................................................................................................ 70 Appendix ............................................................................................................................................. 76 References ........................................................................................................................................... 99 iii List of Figures Figure 1-1 World proved reserves of crude oil, 2017 ........................................................................... 1 Figure 1-2 World proved reserves of natural gas, 2017 ........................................................................ 2 Figure 1-3 Trend of crude oil price, 1972-2018 .................................................................................... 9 Figure 1-4 Global oil and upstream capital spending, 2012-18 .......................................................... 10 Figure 1-5 Share of upstream oil and gas investment by asset type ................................................... 11 Figure 1-6 Change in upstream investment, 2016 vs 2017 ................................................................. 11 Figure 1-7 Crude oil production in the United States, 2010-18 .......................................................... 15 Figure 1-8 Crude oil exports from the United States, 2010-18 ........................................................... 16 Figure 1-9 Major crude oil trade flow, 2017 ....................................................................................... 17 Figure 1-10 Major crude oil trade flow, 2030 ..................................................................................... 17 Figure 1-11 The number of LNG importing economies ..................................................................... 19 Figure 1-12 LNG imports outlook by region, 2017-35 ....................................................................... 20 Figure 1-13 LNG trading volume, 2008-17 ........................................................................................ 21 Figure 1-14 Starts-ups of LNG receiving terminal, 1980-2022 .......................................................... 22 Figure 2-1 Electricity generation by fuel, 1985-2017 ......................................................................... 24 Figure 2-2 The cost of renewable energy technology, 2010-17 .......................................................... 25 Figure 2-3 The Duck Curve shows steep ramping needs and overgeneration risk ............................. 28 Figure 2-4 Trend of electricity generation from renewable energy resources in APEC economies, 2000-16 ............................................................................................. 30 Figure 2-5 Percentage of VRE of total electricity generation in APEC economies ............................ 30 Figure 2-6 Survey outcome on the risk in power utilities ................................................................... 45 Figure 3-1 APEC’s overall energy supply, 2016-2050 ........................................................................ 56 Figure 3-2 APEC’s overall resilience for power supply disruption .................................................... 57 List of Tables Table 1-1 Crude oil and petroleum products transported through world choke points, 2011-16 (mb/d) ............................................................................................. 13 Table 1-2 Oil production in the New Policies Scenarios (mb/d), 2000-40 ......................................... 16 Table 2-1 Categorization of APEC economies and characteristic areas ............................................. 31 Table 2-2 Impacts of cyber-attack in the energy sector ....................................................................... 40 Table 2-3 Construction plans for coal-fired power plants in Indonesia .............................................. 51 Table 3-1 The characteristics of supply disruption risks related to oil, gas/LNG and electricity........ 53 Table 3-2 Responses to risks related to oil, gas/LNG and electricity.................................................. 59 Table 3-3 Primary disruptions to supply
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