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Follow the Yellow Brick Road Roadmaps for Digital Storage Follow the Yellow Brick Road Roadmaps for Digital Storage Thomas Coughlin Coughlin Associates [email protected] www.tomcoughlin.com Presented at the THIC Meeting at the Sony Auditorium, 3300 Zanker Rd, San Jose CA 95134-1940 April 20,2005 Outline • Storage Market Growth and Storage Hierarchy • Disk Drive Technology Roadmap • Magnetic Tape Technology Roadmap • Optical Disk Technology Roadmap • Flash Memory Technology Roadmap • Other Technology • Conclusions • Sources 2005 Coughlin Associates 2 Market Segments • High Performance Enterprise Storage Arrays • Static Content Storage Arrays • Blade Storage • Desktop and Laptop Storage • Consumer Electronics – Static – Mobile – Home Networking 2005 Coughlin Associates 3 Competition in the Storage Hierarchy • Blade Systems – 2.5-inch HDD vs solid state drive for boot and scratch memory – Blade level boot vs. SAN boot • Mobile Consumer Electronics – Trade-offs between using semiconductor flash mass storage vs. SFF HDDs – How will digital storage be integrated into consumer electronics? 2005 Coughlin Associates 4 2005 Coughlin Associates 5 A Mobile Storage Hierarchy Not included here: power and size or optical storage Hard Disk Data Rate Capacity Drives Nobody Flash Memory wants to be here! Environmental Performance 2005 Coughlin Associates 6 The Universe Storage Hierarchy 50 Tbpsi X •Magnetic recording technology may allow up to 50 Tb/in2 (50 X 1018 b/in2) Source: Information in the Holographic Universe, August 2003 Scientific American 2005 Coughlin Associates 7 Natural Information Preservation (70 M Year Old T. Rex Soft Tissue) Dinosaurs Had White Meat! 2005 Coughlin Associates 8 HDD Market Niche Projections 700,000 Mobile CE 600,000 Desktop Enterprise ATA 500,000 Enterprise s sand 400,000 300,000 its in thou Un 200,000 100,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 Coughlin Associates 9 HDD Form Factor Projections 700,000 1 inch or less 1.8 inch 600,000 2.5 inch 3.5 inch 500,000 ands) 400,000 ous th 300,000 (in s t i n U 200,000 100,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 Coughlin Associates 10 CE Drive Applications 300,000 Cell Phones Automotive 250,000 Digital Still Camera Digital Video Camera AV Players 200,000 PVR/DVR/STB/Home Network nds Games 150,000 Other CE Units in thousa 100,000 50,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 Coughlin Associates 11 Disk Drive Technology Roadmap 1,000.00 HDD Quarter by Quarter Public Technology Demonstrations and Product Announcements Compared to Toshiba MLC Flash Numbers . HDD Technology HDD Product 100.00 MLC Fl HDD Tech Trend HDD Prod Trend as h Areal Density in Gbpsi 10.00 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2001 2005 CoughlinQ1 200 Associates2 13 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005 TechnologiesProjected in Areal Production Hard Disk Drives 800 700 2 (Source: CoughlinD Associates) in 600 ensities and Recording 500 , Gb/ k GB s i 400 Ar /d 300 eal Med GB SA D 200 e ia F n /GM s 100 i ty R 0 Me Perpendicular dia 1H 2000 /GM 2H 2000 R 1H 2001 /T M 2H 2001 R 1H 2002 Media/HAMRPatte 2H 2002 rne 1H 2003 d 2005 Coughlin2H 200 Associates3 14 1H 2004 2H 2004 1H 2005 2H 2005 1H 2006 2H 2006 1H 2007 2H 2007 Perpendicular Recording • Perpendicular Recording improves thermal stability of recording, thus increasing areal density • Development of perpendicular recording systems could cause an increase in areal density growth similar to that with the introduction of the MR head in the early 1990s • We could find areal density growth in the next few years again exceeding 60% annually • Not all companies will Illustration from Seagate convert to perpendicular recording at once, still life left in longitudinal recording 2005 Coughlin Associates 15 1 Head Features (100%) IC (MPU Printed Gate) Head Features (60%) IC (DRAM Half Pitch) Head Features (30%) 0.1 FEATURE DIMENSION (nm) FEATURE DIMENSION (nm) 0.01 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2005 CoughlinPRODUCT Associates YEAR 16 Projected Capacity vs. Form Factor 2000 95 mm 1800 65 mm 48 mm 1600 27 mm .. 21 mm 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 2-Sided Storage Capacity (GB) 200 0 2005 Coughlin Associates 17 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 Coughlin Associates 18 HDD Applications for Consumer Electronics Hitachi New Drives MIKEY • Smallest Microdrive • Available in 2nd half 2005 • Embedded version only – PATA, CE-ATA, MMC-like • 8 – 10GB capacity • Targeting small handheld products, including multimedia phones SLIM • Smallest 1.8” hard drive • Single disk and 2-disk versions • 60 – 80GB capacity • Available in 2nd half 2005 • Embedded version – PATA, CE-ATA (future) • Targeting handheld audio and video products 2005 Coughlin Associates 20 CE-ATA Prototype in Marvell Booth at 2005 CES 2005 Coughlin Associates 21 Four Major Drive Components Affect Shock Performance 2. Magnetic Disks 1. Drive Case 3. Actuator 4. Suspension Assembly Bob Evans, HTI, March 2005 2005 Coughlin Associates 22 Bob Evans, HTI, March 2005 History of Shock Requirements High End Mobile Shock Specifications 3000 2500 2000 t micro-HDD non-op shock i m micro-HDD op-shock mobile non-op shock 1500 ec Li mobile op-shock p S , G 1000 500 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year 2005 Coughlin Associates 23 $/GB Advantage of HDDs Less for Smaller Drives NAND Flash vs. Disc 1000 Market Risks OEM Nand Flash Data Point ~ Nand flash pricing $73/GB reductions to combat HDD entrance 100 3.3 mm high risk due to ~$43/GB $/GB compared to flash B Need cell phone real G ~$24/GB $/ estate to allow 5mm ~$13/GB HDD solutions 10 1 Source: Seagate, 2005 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Storage Visions Conference Flash Chip 0.85" 1.0" 0.85" 3mm Samsung Flash 2005 Coughlin Associates 24 Two Extreme Poles of CE Disk Drive Integration --Driven by Cost-- Total Total Integration Integration into the onto the Host Drive Disk Drive Companies Disk Drive Becomes A Chip Become Contract Manufacturers for Host Companies 2005 Coughlin Associates 25 Magnetic Mass Data Storage Technology Roadmap — HDD Unit 2003 2005 2007 2009 2015 Industry Metrics Form Factor inches 3.5, 2.5, 3.5, 2.5, 1.8, 3.5, 2.5, 1.8, 3.5, 2.5, 1.8, 2.5, 1.8, ≤1.0 (dominant form 1.8,1.0 ≤1.0 ≤1.0 ≤1.0 factor is bold) Capacity GB 2-320 2-1200 4-1400 10-1600 20-4600 Market Size units (M) 226 280 310 350 500 Cost/MB (avg.) $/MB 0.01 <0.003 <.002 <0.002 <0.001 Design/Performance Areal Density Gb/in2 70 >100 >200 >400 >1000 Rotational Latency ms 2-6 2-12 2-12 2-12 2-12 Seek Time* ms 3-5 3-5 3-5 2-5 2-5 RPM 4.3-15k 4.3-20k 3.6-20k 3.6-20k+ 3.6-20k+ Data rate MB/sec 80-100 10-150 10-250 10-400 >400 Power watts 2–12 2–12 2-10 1-10 0.5-8 Reliability Spec. MTTF/AFR MTTF/AFR New Spec New Spec New Spec Key Component Requirements Read Head type GMR GMR GMR/ TMR GMR/ TMR GMR/ TMR Slider type & size 20% 20% 20% 20% 10% (% of 5.52 mm2) Clearance nm 10 <10 <10 <10 <10 Disk type AlMag, Glass AlMag, Glass AlMag, Glass AlMag, Glass AlMag, Glass Disk Static Coercivity Oe 5000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Magnetic Recording Longitudinal Longitudinal/Pe Perpendicular Perpendicular, Perpendicular, Technology rpendicular HAMR HAMR, Patterned Media Electronics/Channel type Noise Noise Noise Iterative GPR Soft ECC Predictive Predictive GPR Predictive (Turbo) GPR GPR Channel Bandwidth MHz 480 500-1200 80-2000 80-3200 >3200 SNR dB 20 <20 <20 <20 <20 Actuator type Conventional Conventional dual/micro dual/micro dual/micro Spindle type Ball Ball Ball Fluid Fluid bearing/Fluid bearing/Fluid bearing/Fluid *Seek time is one third full stroke seek t2005ime and do esCoughlin not include micr oAssociatesactuator local track 26 Magnetic Tape Technology Roadmap SAIT S-DLT LTO Half-Inch Tape Cartridges Tape with Tape Drive •Tape for many, is still digital archive media of choice •Tape data access is on the order of minutes vs. milliseconds or seconds for disk •Tape media costs have been somewhat underwritten by VCR tape production, implications for future of tape costs •½ inch tape capacities of up to 10 TB projected 2005 Coughlin Associates 28 Tape-based Digital Content Storage System Sony Petasite Tape Library 2005 Coughlin Associates 29 Active tape format CAGRs are about 40%. Disk Drive CAGRs are expected to be ~60% 100000 S-AIT AIT 10000 DDS DLT B LTO G ( y 30% CAGR t 1000 i c 60% CAGR pa 120% CAGR Ca 100 pe Ta 10 1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 Coughlin Associates 30 Magnetic Mass Data Storage Technology Roadmap — Tape Unit 2003 2005 2007 2009 2015 orm Factor inch 5.25,3.5 5.25,3.5 5.25,3.5 5.25, 3.5 5.25,3.5 ongitudinal Tape olumetric Density GB/in3 5.5 22 100-200 200-400 500-1000 Cartridge capacity GB/TB 200 GB 300-500 GB 1-2 TB 1,75-4 TB 4-10 TB (native) Areal Density Gb/in2 .12 .70 2-3 3.5-5.25 8-12 Data Rate MB/s/drive 5-30 30-100 100-200 100-400 400-800 Tape Speed (for data) meters/sec 2-8 4-11 4-25 5 -30 8-50 Head tracking +/- µm 1 .5 ~.1 .1 <.1 precision required ey Requirements Heads type MR MR/GMR GMR GMR GMR Number of data Number 4-16 4-24 4-32 4-40 4-64 channels 2 Detection channel type EPRML E 2 PRML E 2 PRML E PRML, E 2 PRML, TURBO- TURBO- CODE CODE Magnetic film type dual layer dual-layer multi-layer multi-layer multi-layer metal particle metal particle metal particle metal particle metal particle metal film metal film metal film metal film Tape/media µm (micron) 9 6 <=6 <6 <4 thickness media substrate type PEN PEN Aramid*/ PEN Aramid*/ PEN Aramid*/ Aramid*/ material adv.
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