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Yoshinoya HD / 9861 Yoshinoya HD / 9861 COVERAGE INITIATED ON: 2018.11.14 LAST UPDATE: 2018.12.05 Shared Research Inc. has produced this report by request from the company discussed in the report. The aim is to provide an “owner’s manual” to investors. We at Shared Research Inc. make every effort to provide an accurate, objective, and neutral analysis. In order to highlight any biases, we clearly attribute our data and findings. We will always present opinions from company management as such. Our views are ours where stated. We do not try to convince or influence, only inform. We appreciate your suggestions and feedback. Write to us at [email protected] or find us on Bloomberg. Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. Yoshinoya HD / 9861 RCoverage LAST UPDATE: 2018.12.05 Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. | https://sharedresearch.jp INDEX How to read a Shared Research report: This report begins with the trends and outlook section, which discusses the company’s most recent earnings. First-time readers should start at the business section later in the report. Executive summary ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Key financial data ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Recent updates ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Highlights ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7 Trends and outlook ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 Quarterly trends and results ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 Past initial forecasts versus results -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 Business ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 26 Business description -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 Group strategy --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 40 Group structure -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 41 Profitability snapshot ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 Strengths and weaknesses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 45 Market and value chain---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 Restaurant market trends ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 Competition ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 48 Historical performance and financial statements ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 51 Income statement ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 51 Balance sheet ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 52 Cash flow statement -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 54 Historical performance ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 55 Other information ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 59 History -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 59 News and topics ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 60 Corporate governance and top management --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 61 Dividend policy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 61 Major shareholders --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 62 Employees --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 62 By the way --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 63 Profile ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 63 02/64 Yoshinoya HD / 9861 RCoverage LAST UPDATE: 2018.12.05 Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. | https://sharedresearch.jp Executive summary Business overview ◤ Yoshinoya HD operates major restaurant chains in Japan and overseas. Its core business is Yoshinoya, which invented gyudon (beef bowl) and boasts a 120-year history since opening its first restaurant. The company began actively acquiring businesses from around 1995, and now operates a diverse portfolio of restaurants. Main brands include Yoshinoya (gyudon), Hanamaru Udon (udon noodles), Volks (steak), Steak-no-Don (steaks), Kyotaru (take-out sushi), and Kaisen Misakiko (conveyor belt sushi). The number of restaurants totaled 3,179 (2,351 in Japan and 828 overseas) at end February 2018. The majority of its restaurants in Japan are directly managed, whereas overseas most are operated as franchises (Yoshinoya and Hanamaru restaurants). In FY02/18, the company posted sales of JPY198.5bn and operating profit of JPY4.0bn, and ranked fifth out of 95 listed food-service operators in Japan in terms of sales. ◤ The company has five business segments: Yoshinoya, Hanamaru, Arcmeal, Kyotaru, and Overseas. The Yoshinoya segment accounts for 50% of total sales and 60% of operating profit. Yoshinoya operated 1,200 restaurants in Japan as of end February 2018, ranking second (28% share based on store count) among the three companies that dominate the domestic beef bowl market. Yoshinoya’s annual sales per restaurant are JPY80mn. Yoshinoya restaurants in Japan have only increased by nine outlets (net) over the past five years as the company continued to scrap and build its domestic suburban stores. Although Yoshinoya is a strong brand, the overall earnings environment for the company is challenging, because gyudon has a large sales weighting and beef prices remain high. Yoshinoya’s segment profit margin driven by beef prices is generally low (5% in FY02/18). Consequently, OPM and net margin are low at 2% and 0.8% respectively, placing the company near the bottom of the food-service sector, although profit levels have recovered somewhat from the post-BSE slump. ◤ Growth drivers are the Hanamaru segment (16% share of operating profit) and the Overseas segment (15%). Hanamaru is a self-service udon restaurant located mainly in suburban areas. It has 480 restaurants around the country (mostly directly operated), making it the second-largest udon chain in Japan. Annual sales per Hanamaru restaurant are JPY67mn. The company targets a total of 1,000 locations. According to the company, Kaisen Misakiko (Kyotaru segment) is also a growth business that is highly profitable. The strategy for Kaisen Misakiko is to continue opening restaurants in urban commercial buildings. The Overseas segment mostly comprises Yoshinoya (783 locations) and Hanamaru (38) restaurants in the US, China, and the ASEAN region (as of end February 2018). The company is also focusing on opening directly operated restaurants abroad and expects the number of overseas restaurants to exceed that of Yoshinoya restaurants in Japan in five years’ time. Trends and outlook ◤ Consolidated results in FY02/18 were sales of JPY198.5bn (+5.2% YoY), operating profit of JPY4.0bn (+115.5% YoY), recurring profit of JPY4.6bn (+67.4% YoY), and net income of JPY1.5bn (+19.5% YoY). Sales growth was underpinned by brisk performance at Yoshinoya comparable stores (+JPY3.8bn YoY), and increases in the number of Hanamaru and overseas restaurants, which boosted sales at Hanamaru and Overseas segments by JPY3.2bn and JPY3.1bn YoY, respectively. All segments posted higher YoY profit due to factors including improved
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