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Proquest Dissertations NOTE TO USERS Page(s) missing in number only; text follows. The manuscript was microfilmed as received. 27 This reproduction is the best copy available. UMI~ COUNTERFEIT AND CONTRABAND CIGARETTE SMUGGLING: OPPORTUNITIES, ACTORS, AND GUARDIANSHIP By Sharon Anne Melzer Submitted to the F acuity of the School of Public Affairs of American University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy In Justice, Law and Society Chair:~~ Louise I. Shelley, PhD ~~~ Dean of the School of Public Affairs Date 2010 American University Washington, D.C. 20016 AMERICAN U.WVERStrt LIBAARY ct 5Cf I UMI Number: 3417880 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. UMI ___...Dissertation Publishing...___ UMI 3417880 Copyright 201 O by ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This edition of the work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. Pro uesr ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 ©COPYRIGHT by Sharon Anne Melzer 2010 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED COUNTERFEIT AND CONTRABAND CIGARETTE SMUGGLING: OPPORTUNITIES, ACTORS, AND GUARDIANSHIP By Sharon Anne Melzer ABSTRACT Contraband and counterfeit cigarette smuggling provides organized crime and terrorist organizations with a sizable revenue stream that does not come with the risks and punishments that are associated with other illicit commodities, such as drugs and weapons. This global crime often involves participants in several countries and each market has its own set of circumstances. Thus, the illicit cigarette market is very complex, occurs simultaneously at different levels, and requires a multiple method approach for its study. This dissertation uses qualitative and quantitative methods, structured by the routine activities theoretical framework, to analyze the problem of cigarette smuggling. The quantitative portion is a cross-sectional analysis conducted on data from 93 countries. In the bivariate Tobit analyses, relationships between the dependent variable, illicit cigarette consumption as a percentage of legitimate market, and several independent variables were significant and suggests that a state's ability to govern in many sections of society affects cigarette smuggling. In the multivariate Tobit analyses, the final sale price is significant without control variables. When the control variables are included, the models once again suggest that being able to govern effectively and score low on the Failed State Index is related to a reduction in the percentage of the cigarette market that is illegal. 11 111 The qualitative, case study portion of the dissertation focuses on Turkey's documented problem with the smuggling of counterfeit and contraband cigarettes. The case study examines various aspects of Turkish society and data includes interviews with Turkish National Police officers, government documents, and various open sources written in English. It appears that taxation; regulations and laws; the fractioning of guardianship; the existence of a "deep state" and corruption; the roles that culture, history, and geography play; social acceptance of smuggling; governmental policies related to the "Kurdish problem;" and the underdevelopment of southeastern Turkey seem to affect the country's illicit cigarette market. There is evidence that the PK.I<.. is involved in cigarette smuggling; however, many of the smugglers operating in the southeast region participate in the trade because they have few legitimate opportunities to earn a living. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Contraband and counterfeit cigarette smuggling provides organized crime and terrorist organizations with a sizable revenue stream. Moreover, this revenue stream does not come with the risks and punishments that are associated with other illicit commodities, such as drugs, weapons, and human trafficking. Cigarette smuggling can be divided into three main categories: large-scale, bootlegging, and counterfeit. Although this is a global crime and often involves participants in several countries, each local and regional market has its own set of circumstances and the actors may have different motivations for their involvement. Thus, the illicit cigarette market is very complex, occurs simultaneously at different levels, and requires a multiple method approach for its study. Accordingly, this dissertation uses qualitative and quantitative methods to analyze the problem of cigarette smuggling. The routine activities approach, which is an opportunity theory and is very closely related to and directly influenced by rational choice and economic explanations of crime, provides the theoretical framework. This approach says that a crime may occur when a motivated offender, a suitable target, and the absence of a capable guardian are present. Because cigarette smuggling is dependent on these three elements and is a primarily a financial crime, the routine activities approach is a suitable framework. The quantitative portion is a cross-sectional analysis conducted on data from 93 countries. The illegal consumption as a percentage of the total market ranges from 0.1 % to 90% and has a mean of 15.80%. In the bivariate Tobit analyses, the relationship between the dependent variable, Illicit cigarette consumption as a percentage ef legitimate market, and the lV v independent variables, The final sale price ef a pack qflvfarlboro or equivalent international brand ef cigarettes, Tax price in $US, Atjjacent border with a lower tax, Cigarettes per capita, Government effectiveness, Criminalization-Delegitimization qfthe State, Uneven economic development along group lines, GNI, World Bank's anafytical income categories, and the Failed state index, were significant. Interestingly, the variables measuring taxation and price's relationship to the dependent variable were negative, meaning that as the price increases the predicted percentage of the market that is illegal decreases. This suggests that a state's ability to govern in many sections of society affects cigarette smuggling. In the multivariate Tobit analyses, the final sale price is significant without control variables. When the control variables are included, the models once again suggest that being able to govern effectively and score low on the "failed state" is related to a reduction in the percentage of the cigarette market that is illegal. The qualitative, case study portion of the dissertation focuses on Turkey's documented problem with the smuggling of counterfeit and contraband cigarettes. Turkey's geographical location, higher taxation rates compared to their Middle Eastern neighbors, and having an array of actors ("mom and pops," organized crime, and the PKK) involved in the illicit trade makes the country suitable for a case study. The case study examines various aspects of Turkish society and data includes interviews with Turkish National Police officers, government documents, and various open sources written in English. It appears that taxation; regulations and laws; the fractioning of guardianship; the existence of a "deep state" and corruption; the roles that culture, history, and geography play; social acceptance of smuggling; governmental policies related to the "Kurdish problem;" and the underdevelopment of southeastern Turkey seem to affect the country's illicit cigarette market. There is evidence that the PK.I< is involved in cigarette smuggling; however, many of Vl the smugglers operating in the southeast region participate in the trade because they have few legitimate opportunities to earn a living. The current analysis suggests that although the final price paid for a pack of cigarettes, which can include taxation and variation in the final price, is heavily dependent on variations in taxation levels, and is an essential component, the size of a country's illegal market is the result of the interaction between motivated offenders, suitable targets and opportunities, and guardianship. The ability to govern effectively-or have a lower score on the Failed State Index-is the result of a government's ability to address all three of the essential elements. Currently, the international community is creating policies aimed at reducing the illicit market by reducing demand and supply at the country level and worldwide. These efforts bring awareness to the issue, help governments create appropriate policies, and can aid weaker countries' efforts to combat the problem. However, the discussions and policies should move away from taxation, include the growing problem of counterfeit cigarettes, and offer more solutions or supports for local or national law enforcement and those securing borders. In addition, governments and law enforcement agencies at all levels should enact policies, such as increased detection, punishments, and financial consequences that will deter individuals from entering the illegal market. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The following dissertation is the result of years of learning, researching, and living that were possible only because of the generosity of others. Without the support and assistance from many, I could not have written this improbable dissertation. I am truly blessed, and I offer them my heartfelt appreciation and gratitude. I realize that my success is dependent on the numerous individuals
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