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Zambia Maize Market Fundamentals. October 2017

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Zambia Maize Market Fundamentals. October 2017 FEWS NET Zambia Maize Market Fundamentals 2017 ZAMBIA MAIZE MARKET FUNDAMENTALS OCTOBER 2017 This publication was drafted by Erin Collier under the United States Agency for International Development Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), contract number AID-OAA-I-12-00006. The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarilyFEWS NET reflect Zambia the viewsMaize ofMarket the United Fundamentals States Agency for International Development i or the United States government. FEWS NET Zambia Maize Market Fundamentals 2017 About FEWS NET Created in response to the 1984 famines in East and West Africa, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) provides early warning and integrated, forward-looking analysis of the many factors that contribute to food insecurity. FEWS NET aims to inform decision makers and contribute to their emergency response planning; support partners in conducting early warning analysis and forecasting; and provide technical assistance to partner-led initiatives. To learn more about the FEWS NET project, please visit www.fews.net. Disclaimer This publication was drafted by Erin Collier under the United States Agency for International Development Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), contract number AID-OAA-I-12-00006. The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States government. Acknowledgments FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges the network of partners in Zambia who contributed their time, analysis, and data to make this report possible. See the list of participants and their organizations in Annex 1. Cover photos @ FEWS NET and Flickr Creative Commons. FEWS NET Zambia Maize Market Fundamentals ii FEWS NET Zambia Maize Market Fundamentals 2017 Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................................................... v Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Preface ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Key Concepts ............................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Commodity classifications ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 Market types ........................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Formal versus informal trade flows......................................................................................................................................... 6 Trade flow magnitude and frequency ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Price analysis ........................................................................................................................................................................... 6 1. Zambia Staples Food Market Fundamentals ........................................................................................................................... 8 1.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................................... 8 1.2 National Food Supply ........................................................................................................................................................ 8 1.3 National Food Demand .................................................................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Food Trade....................................................................................................................................................................... 10 1.5 Cross-cutting Issues ......................................................................................................................................................... 11 1.5.1 Agroclimatology Context .......................................................................................................................................... 11 1.5.2 Economic Context .................................................................................................................................................... 12 1.5.3 Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................................................... 13 1.5.4 Social Context ........................................................................................................................................................... 14 2. Maize ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................... 16 2.2 Consumption ................................................................................................................................................................... 16 2.3 Production ....................................................................................................................................................................... 16 2.4 Structure of the marketing system .................................................................................................................................. 16 2.5 Domestic flows and price trends ..................................................................................................................................... 18 2.5.1 Key markets .............................................................................................................................................................. 18 2.5.2 Price trends .............................................................................................................................................................. 18 2.6 Regional and international trade ..................................................................................................................................... 20 2.7 Constraints ...................................................................................................................................................................... 21 3. Information Gaps ................................................................................................................................................................... 23 4. Market Monitoring Plan......................................................................................................................................................... 24 References ................................................................................................................................................................................. 26 Annex 1. List of Workshop Participants ..................................................................................................................................... 28 FEWS NET Zambia Maize Market Fundamentals iii FEWS NET Zambia Maize Market Fundamentals 2017 List of Figures Figure 1. Map of Zambia .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 Figure 2. FEWS NET’s approach to market monitoring and analysis ........................................................................................... 3 Figure 3. FEWS NET presence and remote monitoring countries ................................................................................................ 4 Figure 4. Total national production (MT) by commodity, 2010–2014 ......................................................................................... 9 Figure 5. Average production (MT) in Zambia by province, 2010–2014 ..................................................................................... 9 Figure 6. Staple food zones in Zambia ......................................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 7. Total national production (MT) by commodity, 2010–2014 ....................................................................................... 10 Figure 8. Average annual rainfall, Zambia, November to May, 2001–2014 .............................................................................. 11 Figure 9. Rainfall coefficient of variation (CV), Zambia, November to May, 2001–2014 .......................................................... 12 Figure 10. Zambia’s agro-ecological regions .............................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 11. GDP
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