ZAMBIA mVAM Bulletin #9: March 2017 Food security deteriorated in Western province Key points: Bean and groundnut prices have fallen as households are consuming home grown legumes Dietary diversity is worst in Eastern province Dietary diversity is similar between households receiving food assistance and those who are not Maize prices have risen in Nakonde (Muchinga province), Mansa (Luapula province), Choma (Southern province) and Lundazi (Eastern province) WFP/Rein Skullerud Methodology Map 1: Areas surveyed in March 2017 In January 2017, WFP began collecting household food security data on food consumption, coping strategies and demographics via the mobile Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (mVAM) initiative using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI). Respondents were also asked to comment on the food situation in their communities. Data was collected from 1,000 respondents from 12 districts in five provinces: Copperbelt (Ndola and Chililabombwe), Eastern (Mambwe and Petauke), Lusaka (Chongwe and Rufunsa), Southern (Choma, Gwembe and Livingstone) and Western (Kalabo, Mongu and Sesheke). Participants were randomly selected from a database of mobile subscribers. An airtime credit incentive of US$0.50 (ZMK4.90) was given to respondents who successfully completed the survey. In March 2017, household dietary diversity data was collected instead of food consumption and coping strategies. The data were weighted by the number of mobile phones owned by the household and district population estimates. WFP Zambia’s in-house call centre – operational since May 2016 – also conducts telephone interviews with traders to collect weekly information on the prices of foods including maize, rice, groundnuts, cassava and beans, as well as information on general food availability and market accessibility. Source: mVAM, March 2017 1 mVAM Bulletin #9: March 2017 ZAMBIA Low dietary diversity in Eastern and Western provinces Figure 1: Household dietary diversity by province Across the monitored provinces, the mean Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) for March 2017 was 7, indicating that households had consumed an average of 7 out of the 12 surveyed food groups in the 24 hours preceding the survey. This fairly high HDDS signals a good level of access to food, potentially thanks to increased access to seasonal foods such as pumpkins, sweet potatoes and in some cases, legumes (beans and cowpeas) – especially the early planted crops which are rich in micronutrients. Overall, 64 percent of households had medium dietary diversity and close to 25 percent had high dietary diversity. However, despite the consumption of seasonal foods, limited dietary diversity persists, as indicated by the 11.2 percent of sampled households with low dietary diversity. Households headed by women reported lower access to a variety of foods: over 15 percent of them reported low dietary diversity compared to just over 10 percent of households headed by men. Fewer households headed by women had consumed key food groups such as dairy (30 percent) and pulses (40 percent) compared to those headed by men, 39 percent of whom reported consuming dairy and 52 percent reported consuming pulses. Source: mVAM,March 2017 Figure 2: Percentage of households consuming different food groups by province Copperbelt province had the highest proportion of households with high dietary diversity followed by Southern (Figure 1), largely as a result of the high consumption of livestock products such as meat, eggs and dairy, since these are predominantly livestock-rearing areas. March data show that a significantly higher proportion of households in Copperbelt and Southern consumed dairy, eggs and meat compared to other provinces (Figure 2). By contrast, close to one fifth of respondent households in Eastern and Western had low dietary diversity. Traditionally, these two provinces have low consumption of livestock products, which are only eaten during special occasions. Source: mVAM,March 2017 WFP/Photographer 1 In this analysis, a HDDS of 4.7 or lower is categorized as low dietary diversity; between 4.8 and 9 is categorized as medium dietary diversity; and a HDDS of 9 or higher is categorized as high. 2 mVAM Bulletin #9: March 2017 ZAMBIA Low consumption of iron-rich foods by those worst-off The wall and roof types of a household’s dwelling are used as a proxy for its socio- economic status in this report. There was some correlation between the number of food groups consumed by households and the type of dwelling: 29 percent of households with walls made of sticks and 36 percent with thatched grass roofs – the worst-off categories – had low dietary diversity. Around 34 percent of better-off households – those with concrete walls – had high dietary diversity (Figure 3), implying that households with higher disposable incomes have access to and consume diverse foods rich in micronutrients. A recent change in residence can also create vulnerabilities for households as it implies displacement. March HDDS data show that 12 percent of households who had relocated their residence in the past 6 months had low dietary diversity compared to just 7 percent of those who had not moved. By contrast, no significant differences in dietary diversity were observed among those receiving food assistance and those who were not. The consumption of iron-rich foods such as meat and fish was also seen to be directly correlated with socio-economic status. As in Figure 4, a little over a third of the worst-off households (those with thatched grass roofs) consumed iron-rich foods compared to well over three quarters of the wealthiest households (those with special iron or concrete roofs). Figure 3: Dietary diversity by wall type Figure 4: Percentage of households consuming iron-rich foods by roof type Source: mVAM, March 2017 Source: mVAM, March 2017 WFP 3 mVAM Bulletin #9: March 2017 ZAMBIA Maize prices remain fairly high as lean season reaches its peak In general, maize prices increased in all Figure 5b: Maize prices (ZMK/kg) for monitored districts in Eastern, Luapula, Muchinga and Northern provinces monitored districts in March, following a seasonal trend that precedes household access to homegrown maize. Prices soared in Nakonde (Muchinga) (18.2 percent); Mansa (Luapula) (11.9 percent); Choma (Southern) (11.5 percent), and Lundazi (Eastern) (11.4 percent). Maize prices fell slightly in a few districts such as Serenje (Central) and Chipata (Eastern), where maize became 4.2 percent cheaper, and in Kalomo (Southern) where prices dropped 1.4 percent. Prices are Source: mVAM,March 2017 expected to fall further as households harvest their own production later in April. The average maize price in March (ZMK2.29/kg) was 5.2 percent higher than in February (ZMK2.17/kg) for all 24 monitored districts. The March average price was also above the national Map 3: Maize prices by district (ZMK/kg), March five-year average (March 2011 to March 2016) of ZMK1.47/kg (source: FAO GIEWS). Figure 5a: Maize prices (ZMK/kg) in monitored districts in Central, Copperbelt, Southern and Western provinces Source: mVAM,March 2017 Source: mVAM, March 2017 4 mVAM Bulletin #9: March 2017 ZAMBIA Bean and groundnut prices fall Bean prices are starting to fall as in most monitored districts, more and more households are consuming their own production. Price rises were seen in Choma (Southern) (10.6 percent), Kawambwa (Luapula) (4.6 percent) and Petauke (Eastern) (4.5 percent). Bean prices were stable in three districts between February and March: Chipili (Luapula), Kasama (Northern) and Mafinga (Muchinga). Further price drops are expected in most of the monitored districts as main bean harvest continues into April, with an increased consumption of home grown beans and less market dependency. Groundnuts were generally more expensive in March than in February as the lean season reached its peak. There were marked increases in Luapula province with prices up 50 percent in Chiengi and up 37.5 percent in Mansa. Falling groundnut prices were seen in some districts, particularly in Kaoma, (Western), Lundazi (Eastern) and Monze (Southern) as shown in Table 1. The fall in groundnut prices is mainly attributable to greater supply from 2017 harvests, which is expected to increase in April. Figure 6: Bean prices by district (ZMK/kg) WFP/Photographer Source: mVAM,March 2017 Figure 7: Groundnut prices by district (ZMK/kg) Source: mVAM,March 2017 5 mVAM Bulletin #9: March 2017 ZAMBIA In the words of respondents “The food situation is still worse due to floods, people did not cultivate well” – Female respondent from Eastern province “The food situation is bad because of late distribution of farming inputs” – Female respondent from Lusaka province “Food is very expensive” – Male respondent from Copperbelt province “Food is really a challenge because most of the people are unemployed and depend on their businesses which sometimes is not good” – Female respondent from Southern province “The food situation is bad as most of the fields are flooded” – Male respondent from Western province Figure 8: Word cloud WFP/Photographer WFP Source: mVAM, March 2017 6 mVAM Bulletin #9: March 2017 ZAMBIA Table 1: Bean, maize and groundnut prices in surveyed districts (ZMK/kg) Beans Maize Groundnuts Districts Current Feb % Change Current Feb % Change Current Feb % Change Kaoma 19.08 20.00 -4.60 2.51 2.40 4.58 10.50 13.50 -22.22 Sesheke 18.73 19.60 -4.44 2.30 2.30 0 15.80 16.20 -2.47 Kapiri 11.70 12.70 -7.87 2.40 2.20 9.09 16.00 13.50 18.52 Mposhi Mkushi 18.00 18.60 -3.23 2.30