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Defense Planning in a Time of Conflict a Comparative Analysis of the 2001–2014 Quadrennial Defense Reviews, and Implications for the Army

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Defense Planning in a Time of Conflict a Comparative Analysis of the 2001–2014 Quadrennial Defense Reviews, and Implications for the Army C O R P O R A T I O N Defense Planning in a Time of Conflict A Comparative Analysis of the 2001–2014 Quadrennial Defense Reviews, and Implications for the Army Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton, Michael E. Linick, John E. Peters, Agnes Gereben Schaefer, Keith Walters, Stephanie Young, H. G. Massey, Michelle Darrah Ziegler For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr1309 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN 978-0-8330-9248-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This is the final report of a RAND Arroyo Center study for the U.S. Army. The -pur pose of the project was to perform a comparative historical analysis of the four Qua- drennial Defense Reviews (QDRs) conducted since the first QDR in 1997—including QDR reports in September 2001, February 2006, February 2010, and March 2014— to identify larger trends, as well as implications and recommendations for the Army to shape the conduct of and thereby improve future reviews.1 The purpose of this document is to report the results of our analysis to Army and Department of Defense senior leaders and planners well enough in advance that measures can be taken to improve the organization, processes, and analytics associated with the next Defense Strategy Review.2 Therefore, this report may be of interest to defense planners in the Army, Office of the Secretary of Defense, and Joint Staff, as well as students of defense planning in the scholarly community. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7, and conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD146687. 1 An earlier study assessed the three major defense planning exercises following the end of the Cold War. See Eric V. Larson, David T. Orletsky, and Kristin J. Leuschner, Defense Planning in a Decade of Change: Lessons from the Base Force, Bottom-Up Review, and Quadrennial Defense Review, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MR-1387-AF, 2001. 2 The research in this report was conducted in 2015, and no attempt has been made to update the content as of the time of publication. iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures ................................................................................................. ix Tables .................................................................................................xiii Summary ..............................................................................................xv Acknowledgments ................................................................................xxvii Abbreviations .......................................................................................xxix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Approach ................................................................................................ 5 Organization of This Report .......................................................................... 6 CHAPTER TWO 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review ............................................................... 7 Organization and Process ............................................................................. 8 Strategy Development ................................................................................18 Force Planning ........................................................................................25 Modernization and Transformation ............................................................... 38 Resources ...............................................................................................52 Defense Reform and Infrastructure .................................................................75 Risk Assessment ...................................................................................... 80 Reception...............................................................................................82 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................... 84 CHAPTER THREE 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review ............................................................. 87 Organization and Process ........................................................................... 88 Strategy Development .............................................................................. 101 Force Planning ...................................................................................... 106 Modernization and Transformation .............................................................. 118 Resources ............................................................................................. 125 v vi Defense Planning in a Time of Conflict: A Comparative Analysis of the 2001–2014 QDRs Defense Reform and Infrastructure ............................................................... 141 Risk Assessment ..................................................................................... 142 Reception............................................................................................. 143 Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................ 146 CHAPTER FOUR 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review ............................................................. 149 Organization and Process .......................................................................... 149 Strategy Development .............................................................................. 163 Force Planning ...................................................................................... 168 Modernization and Transformation .............................................................. 178 Resources ............................................................................................. 185 Defense Reform and Infrastructure ............................................................... 201 Risk Assessment ..................................................................................... 202 Reception............................................................................................. 203 Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................ 207 CHAPTER FIVE 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review ............................................................. 209 Organization and Process .......................................................................... 211 Strategy Development .............................................................................. 216 Force Planning ...................................................................................... 220 Modernization and Transformation .............................................................. 227 Resources ............................................................................................. 230 Defense Reform and Infrastructure ............................................................... 236 Risk Assessment ..................................................................................... 236 Reception............................................................................................. 244 Summary and Conclusions ........................................................................ 248 CHAPTER SIX Main Trends ........................................................................................ 251 Organization and Process .......................................................................... 251 Strategy Development .............................................................................. 253 Force Planning ...................................................................................... 254 Modernization and Transformation .............................................................. 265 Resources ............................................................................................. 270 Defense Reform and Infrastructure ............................................................... 278 Risk Assessment ....................................................................................
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