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Does Large Family Size Predict Political Centrism? Benjamin Schmidt

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Does Large Family Size Predict Political Centrism? Benjamin Schmidt Sigma: Journal of Political and International Studies Volume 33 Article 8 2016 Does Large Family Size Predict Political Centrism? Benjamin Schmidt Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/sigma Part of the International and Area Studies Commons, and the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Schmidt, Benjamin (2016) "Does Large Family Size Predict Political Centrism?," Sigma: Journal of Political and International Studies: Vol. 33 , Article 8. Available at: https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/sigma/vol33/iss1/8 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at BYU ScholarsArchive. It has been accepted for inclusion in Sigma: Journal of Political and International Studies by an authorized editor of BYU ScholarsArchive. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected]. Does Large Family Size Predict Political Centrism? by Benjamin Schmidt Introduction Suggesting that voting might be correlated with the number of children vot­ ers have has been rare but not unheard of in the last decade. In a 2004 article for American Conservative, Steve Sailer noted a correlation between states with higher birth rates among white voters and the support for incumbent Republican Presi­ dent George W. Bush. Sailer recognized that Bush won the nineteen states with the highest white fertility while Senator John Kerry won the sixteen with the lowest (2004). He also suggested that the lifestyle preferences of white, conservative par­ ents might be to blame for the apparent Republican tilt among states with higher birth rates. A similar trend occurred again in 2012 when majorities in every state with fertility rates higher than 70 per 1,000 women went to Mitt Romney, while all states with fertility rates below 60 per 1,000 women went to Barack Obama (Sandler 2012). While more editorial than academic, the simple correlations jdenti­ fied between high fertility states and support for the Republican presidential can­ didate and lower fertility states and support for the Democratic candidate was an abnormality that has not received additional scrutiny. My research differs from Sailer and Sandler's in several respects. First, while the level of analysis of these two journalists was that of large groups-indeed, entire states-my research analyzes the decisions of individuals. This is an impor­ tant difference, because even if Sailer and Sandler' s correlation between high-birth­ rate states and votes for Republican presidential candidates were substantiated by more robust evidence, it would be an ecological fallacy to assume that the same correlation exists at the individual level. Secondly, my research arrives at a dif­ ferent conclusion than that presented by Sailer and Sandler. Rather than predict 95 SIGMA support for Republican candidates, my tests indicate that larger family size has a moderating influence on voting and political attitudes. Moreover, if the number of children parents choose to have makes a measurable difference to how those parents vote, those differences will inform policymaking. For example, if a causal link were identified between family size and particular voting trends, adjustments to government programs or policies that encourage or discour­ age having children could affect future elections as well as demographics. However, it is more likely that, instead of causing individuals to vote a certain way, the num­ ber of children voters have is merely correlated with certain voting preferences. This would make the number of children a voter has an indicator of certain beliefs or attitudes rather than a direct cause of those beliefs and attitudes. Given the limitations of proving causality, in this paper I investigate possible cor­ relations between birth rates and voting decisions made by individual voters. Specifi­ cally, I use results from the 2012 American National Election Studies (ANES) survey to analyze the impact of family size on voting in the 2012 national elections and on attitudes toward society and certain policy issues. A Theory for Politically Moderate Families There are several plausible theories for why the number of children might cor­ relate with unique voter inclinations. For instance, it is reasonable to assume that parents with more children tend to be more family-focused than their peers with few or no children. It is also reasonable to assume that some of the same differences that motivate some voters to have more children will affect their political attitudes and behaviors. Undoubtedly, family size also has a deep and long-lasting impact on the lifestyle, responsibilities, and financial obligations of parents. The difference in child-related spending between parents raising three children and parents raising only one amounts to nearly half a million dollars spent over decades (Hicken 2013). Because the marginal effect of having one more child is so massive, choices about family size may pinpoint important differences between voters that are not captured by demographic or socioeconomic information. For example, suppose that two hypo­ thetical voters have the same income, ethnicity, marital status, religion, and ideology, but the first has four children while the second has only one. Assume also that the number of children in each family is a direct result of each adult voter's choices. The first voter's choice to have a larger family will dramatically affect his or her life­ style, spending, and use of time for decades-perhaps their entire life-making it nearly impossible to hold constant all the relevant factors between the two hypotheti­ cal voters that might affect their voting choice. In turn, these differences will affect how each voter views party platforms, government policies, and political candidates on the ballot. Recent research confirms that patterns of religiosity and ideology are correlated with family size. The research indicates that adults who have more children tend to be comparatively more religious, and more religious individuals also tend to be more 96 SCHMIDT supportive of conservative social stances represented by right-leaning parties (L. De La O and Rodden 2012; Bergharnmer 2012). It makes sense that parents with more children might be especially concerned about teaching values to their children com­ pared to parents with fewer or no children. Having additional children at home also offers already religious individuals additional opportunities to practice and teach their religious beliefs. Thus, larger family size may strengthen pre-existing religios­ ity and strengthen support for moral or family-related social issues championed by many Republican candidates and political leaders. Having more children may also affect voters by making individuals more sensi­ tive to harmful influences in society. Children are an emotional as well as a finan­ cial investment; having more children means more is at stake for their parents when things go wrong in society or in government. Consequently, parents with several chil­ dren will have greater reason to worry about the influence that negative media ste­ reotypes, poor quality schools, harmful peer pressure, and other societal dangers will have on their children, and will consequently be more likely to support government policies that seek to mitigate them. In addition, by having more children in school, such parents are likely to be more engaged in community and school activities than other adults. This involvement may encourage greater sensitivity to and support for issues like education funding, community safety, gun control, and drugs. In contrast to the Republican tilt of greater religiosity, being more involved in the community may give parents reason to support issues related to gun, education, and drug laws that have traditionally been heralded by officials and legislators in the Democratic Party. Putting these two countervailing trends together muddies the partisanship of ideology and could make it more difficult for voters with larger families to be ideo­ logically pure on either end of the political spectrum. Indeed, this combination would appear to make voters with larger families more moderate. The results of my statistical tests confirm this marriage of traditionally clashing ide­ ologies. The voting behavior of individuals with larger families is significantly different than that of their ideological peers, and my tests show that large-family voters who iden­ tify with the mainstream left and the mainstream right are less likely to vote exclusively for Republicans or Democrats than those of the same ideology who have fewer children. Furthermore, my tests also show a significant correlation between family size and politi­ cal attitudes that cut across traditional Republican or Democratic Party lines. Literature Review Previous literature does not single out the impact of birth rates or family size on voting behavior, and related literature is also sparse. One recent study did analyze the impact of the gender of children on political attitudes, finding that having female off­ spring leads to more conservative political identification (Conley and Rauscher 2010). However, while Conley addressed the marginal impact of one additional daughter on voting, my research is focused on how overall family size affects electoral decisions and stances on political and societal issues. SIGMA The most closely related published study may be the article published by Ron Lesthaeghe and his associate Lisa Neidert in 2009 that highlighted a trend between U.S.
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