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Trans-Pennine Tunnel Wider Connectivity Study: Stage 1 Report

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Trans-Pennine Tunnel Wider Connectivity Study: Stage 1 Report REPORT NO 001 WIDER TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY ASSESSMENT TRANS-PENNINE TUNNEL STUDY STAGE 1 REPORT MARCH 2017 WIDER TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY ASSESSMENT TRANS-PENNINE TUNNEL STUDY STAGE 1 REPORT Transport for the North (TfN), Department for Transport (DfT), Highways England Project no: 70026162 Date: March 2017 – WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Newcastle (Amber Court) Amber Court William Armstrong Drive Newcastle NE4 7YQ Tel: 01904 615 227 www.wsp-pb.com QUALITY MANAGEMENT ISSUE/REVISION FIRST ISSUE REVISION 1 REVISION 2 REVISION 3 Remarks Final Date 21/03/2017 WSP|PB Prepared by SDG Volterra WSP|PB Checked by Authorised by Nasar Malik Project number 70026162 Report number 001 File reference 70026162 ii PRODUCTION TEAM CLIENT TfN Project Sponsor Peter Molyneux HE Project Manager Kevin Harvey DfT Representative Karen Wilkinson WSP | PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF Project Director Nasar Malik Project Manager and Transport Richard Jones Planning Lead Freight and Ports Lead Ian Brooker Stakeholder Engagement Lead Carole Lehman Environmental Lead Kevin Stubbs Highways Lead Anthony Stalker SUBCONSULTANTS SDG Project Director Neil Chadwick Volterra Wider Economics Lead Paul Buchanan Trans-Pennine Tunnel Wider Connectivity Study: Stage 1 Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Transport for the North, Department for Transport, Highways England Project No 70026162 March 2017 iii C O N T E N T S 1 INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................1 1.1 PURPOSE OF THE REPORT ............................................................................ 1 1.2 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1 1.3 STUDY OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................ 2 1.4 STAGE 1 OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................... 3 1.5 STUDY AREA..................................................................................................... 3 1.6 STAGE 1 REPORT STRUCTURE ..................................................................... 4 2 ECONOMIC CONTEXT ................................................................5 2.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 5 2.2 RELEVANT STRATEGIES AND POLICIES ...................................................... 5 2.3 NORTHERN POWERHOUSE INDEPENDENT ECONOMIC REVIEW (NPIER) ............................................................................................................... 6 2.4 WIDER ECONOMIC BENEFITS ...................................................................... 11 2.5 DISTRIBUTION OF NEW EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ..................................... 14 2.6 KEY FREIGHT INDUSTRIES ........................................................................... 18 2.7 ECONOMIC CONTEXT SUMMARY ................................................................ 20 3 LOCAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT ......................................... 21 3.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 21 3.2 AREA OF INTERVENTION .............................................................................. 21 3.3 AREA OF IMPACT ........................................................................................... 37 3.4 LOCAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT SUMMARY ........................................... 46 4 TRANSPORT CONTEXT ............................................................ 47 4.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 47 4.2 HIGHWAY TRANSPORT CONTEXT ............................................................... 48 4.3 ROAD SAFETY ................................................................................................ 56 Trans-Pennine Tunnel Wider Connectivity Study: Stage 1 Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Transport for the North, Department for Transport, Highways England Project No 70026162 March 2017 iv 4.4 TRANS-PENNINE ROAD IMPROVEMENTS .................................................. 58 4.5 PUBLIC TRANSPORT CONTEXT ................................................................... 62 4.6 AIRPORT CONNECTIVITY .............................................................................. 65 4.7 FREIGHT .......................................................................................................... 66 4.8 FUTURE DEMAND AND AREA OF INFLUENCE ........................................... 67 4.9 FUTURE TRAFFIC FLOWS AND IMPACT OF A NEW TUNNEL .................. 68 4.10 TUNNEL IMPACT ON FREIGHT ..................................................................... 69 4.11 TRANSPORT CONTEXT SUMMARY ............................................................. 72 5 ENVIRONMENTAL EVIDENCE .................................................. 74 5.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 74 5.2 AREA UNDER ANALYSIS ............................................................................... 75 5.3 NATIONAL, NATIONAL PARK AND HIGHWAYS ENGLAND POLICY ........ 75 5.4 REVIEW OF EXISTING CONDITIONS AND CONSTRAINTS ........................ 79 5.5 ENVIRONMENTAL EVIDENCE SUMMARY ................................................... 83 6 NEED FOR INTERVENTION ...................................................... 85 6.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 85 6.2 SUMMARY OF EVIDENCE AND INFORMATION OBTAINED ...................... 85 7 PRELIMINARY VIEW OF INTERVENTIONS ............................. 94 7.1 DISTRIBUTION OF TRANS-PENNINE TUNNEL TRAFFIC ........................... 94 7.2 PRELIMINARY VIEW ON INTERVENTIONS .................................................. 95 7.3 INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF DELIVERABILITY ............................................. 101 7.4 NEXT STEPS.................................................................................................. 105 GLOSSARY OF TERMS ......................................................................... 106 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................................................... 109 Trans-Pennine Tunnel Wider Connectivity Study: Stage 1 Report WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Transport for the North, Department for Transport, Highways England Project No 70026162 March 2017 v TABLE S TABLE 1-1 SUMMARY OF PROJECT STAGES AND TARGET DELIVERY DATES ....... 1 TABLE 1-2 STUDY OBJECTIVES ...................................................................................... 2 TABLE 2-1 KEY CHAPTER AREAS AND RELEVANCE TO STUDY ................................ 5 TABLE 2-2 REVIEWED STRATEGY AND POLICY DOCUMENTS ................................... 6 TABLE 2-3 ALIGNMENT AND CAPABILITY SCORE FOR NORTHERN REGIONS ........ 8 TABLE 2-4 PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH PER ANNUM IN PRIME AND ENABLING CAPABILITIES (NPIER, 2016) ...................................... 9 TABLE 2-5 GVA OUTLOOK PERCENTAGE GROWTH 2017-19 .................................... 10 TABLE 2-6 PROJECTED GVA GROWTH PER ANNUM IN NPIER PRIME AND ENABLING CAPABILITIES ............................................................. 11 TABLE 2-7 AIRPORT PASSENGERS AND FREIGHT INFORMATION (CAA, OCTOBER 2016) ............................................................................................... 13 TABLE 2-8 SUMMARY OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH DEALS ....................................... 14 TABLE 2-9 AVERAGE FORECAST GDP PER WORKER BY CITY REGION - % GROWTH 2016-51 (DFT, 2016) ..................................................... 15 TABLE 2-10 AVERAGE FORECAST GDP PER WORKER BY CITY REGION 2051 ...... 15 TABLE 3-1 KEY CHAPTER AREAS AND RELEVANCE TO STUDY .............................. 21 TABLE 3-2 COMMUTING FLOWS BETWEEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES WITHIN THE AREA OF INTERVENTION, % BY ORIGIN, 2011 CENSUS ......... 27 TABLE 3-3 COMMUTING FLOWS BETWEEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES WITHIN THE AREA OF INTERVENTION, % BY DESTINATION, 2011 CENSUS27 TABLE 3-4 SUMMARY OF KEY GROWTH SECTORS ................................................... 31 TABLE 4-1 KEY CHAPTER AREAS AND RELEVANCE TO STUDY .............................. 47 TABLE 4-2 SUMMARY OF ROAD BASED JOURNEY TIMES (PEAK TIMES) ............... 52 TABLE 4-3 SUMMARY OF EURORAP RISK RATINGS (COLOUR KEY IN FIGURE 4-9)56 TABLE 4-4 SUMMARY OF PLANNED IMPROVEMENT SCHEMES .............................. 61 TABLE 4-5 SUMMARY OF TRAIN JOURNEY TIMES ..................................................... 62 TABLE 4-6 SUMMARY OF KEY COACH SERVICES ...................................................... 64 TABLE 5-1 KEY CHAPTER AREAS AND RELEVANCE TO STUDY .............................. 74 TABLE 6-1 SUMMARY OF EVIDENCE ECONOMIC CONTEXT ..................................... 85 TABLE 6-2 SUMMARY OF EVIDENCE – LOCAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT ............. 88 TABLE 6-3 SUMMARY OF EVIDENCE - TRANSPORT CONTEXT ................................ 90 TABLE 6-4 SUMMARY OF EVIDENCE - ENVIRONMENTAL EVIDENCE ...................... 93 TABLE 7-1 INTERVENTION CATEGORIES .................................................................... 95 TABLE 7-2 PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS (EAST OF PDNP) ....................................... 97 TABLE 7-3 PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS (WEST OF PDNP) ...................................... 98 TABLE 7-4 SUMMARY OF HIGHWAYS ISSUES/CONSTRAINTS ............................... 101 Trans-Pennine Tunnel Wider Connectivity Study: Stage 1 Report WSP |
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