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R Weekly Round up 8 - 12 Feb 2021

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R Weekly Round up 8 - 12 Feb 2021 Institutional Equity Research 13 February 2021 R Weekly Round Up 8 - 12 Feb 2021 What We Did 1. Automobile Sector - Monthly Quick View - Jan’ 21 2. Cement Sector Monthly Update 3. RSec TradEdge - SBILIFE & Petronet LNG 4. R Weekly Technical What We Saw & What We Heard - Company Quarterly Result Highlights & Conference Call Key Takeaways 1. ABB India 13. J. Kumar Infra 2. ACC 14. JK Cement 3. Ashok Leyland 15. KNR Constructions 4. BEML 16. LIC Housing Finance 5. Bharat Forge 17. Magma Fincorp 6. Birlasoft 18. Mangalam Cement 7. BPCL 19. Mahanagar Gas 8. Cholamandalam 20. Muthoot Finance 9. GAIL 21. Petronet LNG 10. GSPL 22. RITES 11. HeidelbergCement India 23. Shriram City Union Finance 12. Indraprastha Gas We have made changes to our Recommendation and Target Price. Please refer to Page no. 44 at the end of the report. 1 Automobile Sector Institutional Equity Research Monthly Quick View - Jan’ 21 | 11 Feb 2021 Decent YoY & MoM Volume Growth Led by Inventory Re-Stocking As per the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), domestic auto sales volume CV Segment: The SIAM has stopped reporting monthly CV volume performance since past (excluding CVs) grew by 5% YoY and 24% MoM to 17,32,817 units in Jan’21. Though retail 10 months due to unavailability of monthly CV volume data of select OEMs. Therefore, it sales volume is expected to have been lower due to post festival effect, inventory restocking reports only volume performance at the end of each quarter. resulted in higher wholesale volume. Overall inventory level remains close to normal level Exports: Overall exports grew by 20% YoY (flat on MoM basis) to 4,63,109 units. PV exports or marginally lower, for most segments in Jan’21. Festival season witnessed decent traction grew by 1% YoY (down 35% MoM), while 3W exports declined by 6% YoY (up 5% MoM). with decent off-take and booking for new models (particularly for PVs). While positive traction Motorcycle exports grew by 31% YoY (up 6% MoM) in Jan’21. continued in Jan’21, sales momentum needs to be seen over the next 2-3 months to judge the underlying industry trend over near-to-medium-term. From long-term perspective, sector Inventory: In PV segment, inventory decreased at the company level, as production was 3% remains structurally strong due to low penetration and improving affordability. lower than the sales volume. In 2W segment, the inventory increased at the company level, as the production was 1% higher than the sales volume. PV Segment: Overall PV volume grew by 11% YoY (up 9% MoM) due to 37% YoY growth in UV sales on back of higher sales of Kia’s SUVs with incremental volume from Kia Sonet, Our View: We believe that monthly industry volume was supported by retail traction as well while MPV volume declined by 6% YoY (up 4% MoM). PC sales fell by 1% YoY (up 4% MoM) as inventory restocking, while positive sentiment, decent rural sales continue to drive decent in Jan’21. retail sales despite the ongoing pandemic. While the rural markets have already witnessed healthy volume up-tick, the urban markets have also started witnessing improvement now. Scooter & Motorcycle Segment: Scooter and motorcycle sales grew by 9% YoY and 5% YoY, Expecting healthy volume traction to continue in FY22E, we continue to remain positive on respectively. Overall domestic 2W volume rose by 7% YoY (up 27% MoM). Motorcycle and automobile sector. We expect strong bounce back for M&HCV going forward. moped sales grew by 5% YoY (down 23% MoM) and 12% YoY (down 2% MoM), respectively. Further, 2W production was 1% higher than the sales during the month. 3W Segment: Domestic 3Ws sales decreased by 57% YoY (up 19% MoM) to 26,335 units. 3W passenger carriers’ volume fell by 66% YoY, while 3W goods carriers’ sales fell by 10% YoY in Jan’21. Research Analyst: Mitul Shah Research Associate: Sheryl Fernandes Contact: 9869253554 Contact: 8879415031 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR DETAILED REPORT 2 Institutional Equity Research Channel Checks for Jan ’21 | Feb 08, 2021 Cement Sector Demand Scenario Continues to Remain Strong; Prices Drop Further Research Associate: Girija Shankar Ray Key Findings: Contact : 91670411117 Sustained pick-up in construction activities with labour availability reaching pre-COVID Email : [email protected] level supported demand across regions. Higher supply continued to weigh on the prices, as all-India average price contracted Research Analyst: Binod Modi for the third consecutive month by 1% MoM (~Rs3-4/bag) in Jan’21. Barring Eastern Contact: 9870009382 and Central regions, all other regions witnessed price contraction to the tune of 1-2.5% Email: [email protected] MoM. From the beginning of Feb’21, the prices are hiked especially in Western region and part of Easter region like Odisha markets and the dealers have been communicated for likely price hikes in other pockets in the coming weeks. In course of our monthly channel check for the cement industry, we spoke with the dealers and distributors across regions, the key takeaways of which are enumerated hereunder: Key Highlights: 1. Demand scenario continued to remain upbeat across regions in Jan’21 on the back of sustained pick-up in construction activities with labour availability reaching pre-COVID level. Further, rural demand continued to remain strong despite getting impacted moderately due to farmers’ agitation. 2. Notably, while the demand witnessed some moderation on MoM comparison (as cited by most of the dealers) due to base affect, it inched up meaningfully on YoY comparison. Further, pick-up in affordable housing and IHB (Independent House Builder) segment were the major contributors for demand revival. 3. However, higher supply continued to weigh on the prices, as all-India average price contracted for the third consecutive month by 1% MoM (~Rs3-4/bag) in Jan’21. Barring Eastern and Central regions, all three regions witnessed price contraction to the tune of 1-2.5% MoM. Further, current all-India average price is down by 2.2% compared to average price of 3QFY21. 4. The prices were hiked especially in Western region and some parts of Eastern region like Odisha markets. Further, the dealers have been communicated for likely price hikes in other pockets in the coming weeks. However, any meaningful price up-tick looks to be unlikely at least till Mar’21. 5. In our view, rebound in demand environment is likely to sustain in FY22E with double- digit volume growth mainly on account of huge government spending on infrastructure and revival in investment activities. However, the prices are unlikely to witness any meaningful up-tick due to: (a) likely increase in non-trade sales, which may weigh on average price; and (b) incremental new supply in the coming months. We continue to remain positive on the companies, which have built capacity to meet the incremental rise in demand. PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR DETAILED REPORT 3 RSec TradEdge Reco Range Stop Loss Target SBILIFE (SBILIFE IN; CMP - Rs.861; Fundamental Rating - Not Covered) 861 801 965 BFSI | 08 February 2021 Background & Business 1 Year Stock Price Performance SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd. (SBI Life) – established in 2001 as a JV between State Bank of India (SBI) and BNP Paribas Cardif SA – is one of the leading life insurance companies in India. It offers individual and group products, which include savings and protection plans to address the 1,000 insurance needs of diverse customer segments. As on 3QFY21, its AUM stood at Rs 2,095 bn. Investment Rationale 800 f Strong Distribution Network: SBI Life has a multi-channel distribution network comprising of an expansive bancassurance channel with SBI, which has an unrivalled strength of >23,000 branches across the country. SBI Life also has a large and productive agent network comprising of 154,158 agents and 947 offices as of 3QFY21. Its other distribution channels include direct sales and sales through corporate 600 agents, brokers, insurance marketing firms and other intermediaries. f Balanced Product-mix: SBI Life is looking to increase its product-mix in protection/annuity business, which improved to 9.4% in 3QFY21 400 from 6.8% in 3QFY20. Its growth in new business premium outperformed the industry peers and has one of the lowest cost structures to 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jan maintain strong control on cost ratios. Feb Oct Jun Apr Feb Sep Dec Nov Aug Mar May f Strong Growth Prospects: Looking ahead, growth prospectus of SBI Life remain strong on the back of: (a) strong product positioning across segments; (b) strong demographic tailwinds as high share of working population and rapid urbanization; (c) rising affluence and focus on Note: *CMP as on 08 February 2021 12.45 pm financial inclusion; (d) demand for pension-based products. Key Figure Outlook & Valuation Market Cap ( Rsbn/US$mn ) Steady growth, lower cost ratios and gradual recovery in ULIP business with a strong distribution network of its parent should aid SBI Life to 862.9/118.4 sustain solid performance in the coming years. Disciplined business focus, strong digital capabilities and use of analytics enabling better Current Price 861 customer engagement augur well for the company. Target Price 965 Risks Promoters / Public & Others 60.7/39.3 f Increase in tax rates. FY22E P/BV (x) 7.3 f Any major slowdown in the broader economy Revenues CAGR (FY20-22 %) 24.1% PAT CAGR (FY20-22 %) 16.0% Y/E March (Rs Mn) FY20 FY21E FY22E Revenues 4,43,263 6,40,070 6,82,566 Key Ratios
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