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Balance of Programme Exercise – PPAN Table of Contents BoP POST Counv1 Balance of Programme Exercise – PPAN Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 2 2. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 4 3. Balance of Programme Exercise Process .................................................................................................................. 7 4. Subject Areas .......................................................................................................................................................... 9 4.1 Astronomy (including Solar System) ....................................................................................................................... 9 4.2 Nuclear Physics ..................................................................................................................................................... 18 4.3 Part icle Physics ..................................................................................................................................................... 22 4.4 Particle Astrophysics ............................................................................................................................................. 31 4.5 Accelerators .......................................................................................................................................................... 36 4.6 Computing ............................................................................................................................................................ 41 5. Programme Balance and the Funding Scenarios .....................................................................................................47 5.1 Funding Scenarios ................................................................................................................................................ 49 5.2 Risk Analysis .......................................................................................................................................................... 53 6. Education and Training ...........................................................................................................................................56 7. Economic and Societal Impact ................................................................................................................................57 8. Future Reviews ......................................................................................................................................................59 9. Conclusions and General Comments ......................................................................................................................61 Terms of Reference ..............................................................................................................................63 Members Biographies ..........................................................................................................................64 Documentation List ..............................................................................................................................67 Advisory Panel Questions ....................................................................................................................68 Key Science Challenges ........................................................................................................................70 Pie charts of Subject areas ...................................................................................................................72 Glossary of Acronyms ..........................................................................................................................80 Page 1 of 89 BoP POST Counv1 1. Executive Summary 1. This review forms part of the newly established three-yearly process to evaluate STFC’s core programme. Science Board appointed a Sub Group in July 2016, chaired by Professor Richard Harrison, to assess the balance within the particle physics, particle astrophysics, astronomy and nuclear physics (PPAN) science programme as a whole, together with the accelerator and computing aspects that support this. It did not look at the skills element (i.e. studentships and fellowships) or the public engagement and innovations programmes that are funded by Programmes Directorate. The Sub Group considered the strategic direction, balance and breadth within and across the science areas for three financial scenarios (flat cash +/- 5%) but did not review individual projects. This light touch review will be followed in the intervening years before the next Balance of Programme (BoP) exercise by detailed reviews of each of the subject specific programmes. 2. Input was sought from the Advisory Panels, which provided updated roadmaps as well as answering specific questions posed by the Sub Group. Further material, background information and financial data were provided by the programme managers. Each of the disciplines was assigned expert rapporteurs to provide an overview and lead discussion. It was noted that spend across the programme had been kept within a flat budget as had future planning lines. 3. The Sub Group noted that the BoP exercise has taken place following an extended, non-indexed period of funding. The 2013 Programmatic Review1 noted that ‘flat cash would result in a cumulative 37% reduction in volume if extended over the next four years’. A flat cash environment, imposed on the programme over many years, clearly erodes the UK’s ability to deliver broad and high quality science, and to maintain leadership in instrumentation, facilities and exploitation. It has a significant and adverse impact on the UK’s underpinning scientific output. It risks disadvantaging the UK’s position and reputation on the international scene. It erodes the knowledge-base on which we should anticipate future UK economic and academic returns. In terms of the current BoP exercise, it is important to stress that we are considering a programme that is already under extreme pressure and has lost opportunities and encountered restrictions on its ability to maintain and develop the UK’s scientific strengths for some years. Whilst the exercise identifies excellent science in the UK, makes recommendations on a number of key issues, and considers financial scenarios, it must be remembered that this is addressing a programme that cannot be stretched much further. 4. The Sub Group found that all areas support only excellent science and had equally felt the impact of long-term constrained finances. It was noted that STFC is unable to fund 1 http://www.stfc.ac.uk/files/programmatic-review-report-2013/ Page 2 of 89 BoP POST Counv1 additional, internationally-leading science proposals, and this constrains programme breadth. 5. The Sub Group noted that the consolidated grants, which fund exploitation, blue skies research and in some fields core support for construction projects, were identified as the highest priority by the Advisory Panels. This position was endorsed by the Sub Group, which noted the continuing reduction in the effort that could be maintained by these grants. 6. The Sub Group saw no reason to propose major change to the balance but does recommend modest modifications in response to the pressures resulting from the evolutionary changes in the science programme. Several high-level findings requiring action were noted; for Computing support, where demands are growing rapidly, Particle Astrophysics, which is an emerging field that needs to mature into an established element, Nuclear Physics, where support is at a critical level following a poor settlement in the last consolidated grant round, and Accelerator physics, which is also seen to be at a critical level. 7. The Sub Group considered the financial situation of the three funding scenarios. It noted the pressures and the need for continued tensioning within the subject areas, which should be considered in the subject-specific reviews. It recommended modest additional support for Nuclear Physics to provide an appropriate level of PDRA funding, a modest increase to Computing to cover the cost of the PRACE subscription, and additional support in Particle Astrophysics to maintain gravitational waves funding at flat cash. The Accelerator science programme is also identified to be at critical level and it is recommended that a modified funding model for that area be adopted. The Sub Group recommended a temporary suspension of the Project Research and Development (PRD) programme, to create some headroom in the PPAN programme, of no more than two years, as this could potentially cause increased risk to essential technology development over time. In the flat cash minus 5% funding scenario the Sub Group recommended cuts associated with reducing, or stopping, participation in planned construction projects to protect committed project funding and maintain the consolidated grants at the current level. These have been eroded by inflation during years of flat-cash budgets and protection will minimise any further loss of scientific leadership and reduce risks that previous project investment will not be exploited. In a flat cash plus 5% scenario PRD should be restored and all areas should receive some share of the uplift. 8. The Sub Group noted that this review can only be a snapshot
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