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Investigating the Linkage Between Precipitation and Temperature Changes in Iraq and Greenhouse Gas Variability

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Investigating the Linkage Between Precipitation and Temperature Changes in Iraq and Greenhouse Gas Variability Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, Vol. 46, No. 4, Winter 2021, P. 199-212 (Research) DOI: 10.22059/jesphys.2020.288915.1007160 Investigating the Linkage between Precipitation and Temperature Changes in Iraq and Greenhouse Gas Variability Al-Khalidi, J.1*, Bakr, D.1, Hadi, A.2 and Omar, M.3 1. Associate Professor, Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Diyala, Diyala, Iraq 2. Associate Professor, Department of geography, Faculty of Education for Human Sciences, University of Diyala, Diyala, Iraq 3. Associate Professor, Department of physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Sulaimami, Sulaimami, Iraq (Received: 16 Sep 2019, Accepted: 21 Jan 2020) Abstract In this study, the homogeneity of annual precipitation and temperature in Iraq were examined for the periods 1981-2010 and 1971-2010, respectively in terms of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and their link to climate change. Observational data of precipitation and temperature were provided by Iraqi meteorological stations along with information on GHG concentrations from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR V4.3.2). The homogeneity characterisations of both precipitation and temperature were undertaken, noting that precipitation was homogeneous over the period of study, whereas, temperature, on the other hand, had breakpoints for the meteorological stations investigated. The Mann-Kendall test was performed to determine the trend and magnitude of changes in climate conditions. The time series for precipitation showed a significant decline trend in six stations. However, temperature had a slight trend throughout the period of study. The annual time series of GHG emissions in Iraq and the link with the country’s climate was also investigated in this study indicating that the time series of N2O and CO2 increased over time, but CH4 decreased over the same period. The correlation coefficient values of both temperature and GHG were substantial and were found to increase in the southern stations, given the abundance of intense heat and industrial activities, while the relationship between GHG and precipitation were found to be low. Accordingly, GHG emissions have a direct link with the climatic conditions in Iraq due to the development and contribution of various industries, oil refineries, pollutants and population growth that contributed towards climatic change in Iraq. Keywords: Iraq, Precipitation, Temperature, Homogeneity, Greenhouse, Mann-Kendall, Climate change. 1. Introduction The study of climate change in Iraq is very emissions are important factors in GHGs. important. Decreasing rainfall, increasing Many studies have identified the relationship temperatures and extreme heat waves, between CO2 concentrations and air frequent dust storms, and drought are all temperature. Florides and Christodoulides indexes of climate change contributed by oil (2009) found that concentrations of CO2 gas factories and refineries, coal energy plants, were higher compared to normal pollution and population growth causing the concentration levels, although temperatures rise in GHG emissions. According to the significantly fluctuated. Methane (CH4), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change second most important greenhouse gas has an (IPCC, 2001) of the United Nations (UN), indirect effect on these concentrations in the climate change is the phenomenon associated Ozone layer and water vapour in the with increasing of the average air stratosphere (Harvey and Huang, 1995). temperature, including that of rising Whereas, N2O is one of the trace gases that temperature in oceans. The greenhouse effect play an important role in global warming, it is the phenomenon that is accrued when is responsible for the degradation of the water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2) Ozone layer. Indeed, the concentration of and other atmospheric gases absorb the N2O has been increasing over many decades. outgoing infrared radiation causing global N2O is responsible for Nitrogen (N) found in temperatures to rise (IPCC, 2007). the soil, which is dissolved by rain and The increase in CO2, CH4, and N2O absorbed in the soil. N2O has afforded greater *Corresponding author: [email protected] 200 Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, Vol. 46, No. 4, Winter 2021 global warming effects compared to CO2, between 1950 and 2003, with the results contributing to climate change (Reay et al., spatially coherent with the trend associated 2012). with temperature during this period. Also, Alsarmi and Washington (2011) explored Stephenson et al. (2013) examined mean climate change in the Arabian Peninsula, temperature and precipitation extremes for finding that there were many factors the Caribbean region with the results attributed to climate change in mid-1997 due indicating inhomogeneous temperature and to the El-Nino effect. Similarly, climate precipitation. change in the context of river flow was In contrast, the Mann-Kendall test was explored by Adamo et al. (2018) in the performed by Tan et al. (2019) to identify the Tigris, and Euphrates river basins, given the trends of temperature and precipitation decreasing rainfall in the areas and increasing extremes in Malaysia. The test indicated a temperatures caused drought and frequent non-significant trend in all annual climate sand storms; that are also considered to be extremes. Ali et al. (2019) studied the flow climate change indexes. Whereas, Zakaria et change in the Zab River in northern Iraq, al. (2013) predicted significant problems for finding a declining trend in the annual and society in Iraq given rising sea levels in the individual months, which were consistent Arabian Gulf region, causing a steady with decreasing precipitation in the Iraqi increase in the salinity of Iraqi rivers. Awadh region. and Ahmed (2013) examined the trend of Accordingly, this study points to changes in three climatological parameters (i.e. Iraqi climate variables by applying temperature, evaporation, and precipitation) homogeneity and trend tests and indicating of four meteorological stations in Iraq, the link between the GHG emissions and finding that both temperature and Iraqi annual precipitation and temperature. evaporation had increased over time, whereas precipitation had decreased. Also, CO2 was 2. Iraqi climatological characteristics most dominant in terms of Iraqi Iraq is located in the south-western region of climatological parameters. Two time periods Asia. Having vast mountainous areas which 1998-1999 and 2007-2008 pointed significant cover the north and north-eastern areas of droughts in Iraq, the more intense of which Iraq, the plain region extends from the was on the south-western parts (Hameed et middle to the southern region, while the al., 2018). Both drought and salinization of desert covers the western region (Figure 1). water in Iraq rivers was mainly due to the The central and southern regions of Iraq are construction of dams along the Tigris river in characterised having low precipitation (100- Turkey, which was also considered to be an 200 mm/year), intensifying in northern Iraq important environmental challenge in the reaching to about 1000 mm/year. About 90% middle-southern parts of Iraq (Ali, 2019). of the annual rainfall for Iraq is recorded in The homogeneity tests for a time series the winter months between December and detects a change along a time series to March. The other months, especially the most indicate the change points. Agha et al. (2017) heated months in summer, are extremely dry used four tests to assess the homogeneity of (Al-Falahi 2008). The minimum temperature annual and seasonal precipitation in northern during winter is near freezing in the northern Iraq where they found that the precipitation and north-eastern parts of the country, was homogeneous based on three tests, and while the temperature varies between 4 °C with only two stations having breakpoints in and 5 °C in the alluvial plains of southern the fourth test. Zhang et al. (2005) studied the Iraq. During summer, minimum temperatures homogeneity of the mean daily temperature vary between 22.2 °C and 29 °C (Salar, of 15 countries in the Middle East region 2013). Investigating the Linkage between Precipitation and Temperature Changes in … 201 Figure 1. The Iraqi political and geographic map with weather stations (SRTM, 90 m). 3. Data and methodology parameters and GHG concentrations. The Iraqi meteorological organisation provided observational data of Iraq’s annual 4. Results precipitation and temperature. Precipitation 4-1 Iraqi precipitation hhomogeneity data were used for 18 stations spanningg the In this research study, annual precipitation period between 1981 and 2010, and homogeneity in Iraq was investigated for a temperature data were used for 8 out of the total of 18 stations, covering the period 18 stations covering the period between 1971 between 1981 and 20110. The precipitation and 2010. The Pettitt's Tests (Pettit, 1979) stations were divided into three groups (six includded in the XLSTAT software stations included in each group) according to (https://www.xlstat.com) added to Microsoft their location (i.e. northh, middle, and south). Excel was used to detect the point of change The northern mountainoouus stations (Figure 2) in the time series of both precipitation and had one mean value allong the time series temperature to identify the homogeneity of period (homogenous), the Sulaimania in the time series for the two climatological north-eastern area of Iraqi had the maximum parameters at a 95% confidence level. value for
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