Building an approach for monitoring climate change impacts on tourism resources in developing countries Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Mohamed Rashed Alhassani BAppSc (Naval Science), University of Karachi, Pakistan MSc (Environmental Management), Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences RMIT University July 2013 0 Declaration I certify that except where due acknowledgement has been made, the work is that of the author alone; the work has not been submitted previously, in whole or in part, to qualify for any other academic award; the content of the thesis is the result of work which has been carried out since the official commencement date of the approved research program; any editorial work, paid or unpaid, carried out by a third party is acknowledged; and, ethics procedures and guidelines have been followed. Mohamed Rashed Alhassani 07/07/2013 1 Abstract The tourism industry is important for many state economies. Tourism relies on resources that attract tourists and thus generate income. Ensuring these resources are sustainable through preservation, maintenance, and optimal utilisation is vital to the continuation and health of the tourism industry. Monitoring of resources is equally important for good management; changes and threats to tourism resources occur for many reasons, including anthropogenic activity or/and climate change, and monitoring enables efficient responses. The research described in this thesis focused on resources in developing countries, which are believed to be relatively vulnerable to climate change. Developed countries have more ability to prepare for, adapt to, and recover from problems induced by climate change due to their greater human, technological and financial resources. Developing countries, including Arab countries, need more research about ways to sustain their tourism resources. This research aimed to build an approach that can be used by developing countries whose tourism resources are likely to be impacted by climate change. Two case studies were involving in this research – one to develop the approach (Fujairah) and one to validate it (Turkey). The Emirate of Fujairah was used to develop methods for tourism managers to use geospatial information to monitor climate change impacts on tourism resources. The case study location, Fujairah, is one of the seven emirates forming the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In contrast to its fellow UAE member emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai, Fujairah has no known reserves of oil or natural gas; instead, the government of Fujairah aims to make tourism to key component of economic development. Fujairah has natural assets, many associated with its strategic placement in the Gulf of Oman, which makes it a highly desirable tourist destination. It is also home to beautiful beaches and colourful coral reefs which offer opportunities for snorkelling and scuba diving as well as passive leisure activities. 2 Hot springs, waterfalls, and abundant animal and bird life also attract visitors. Heritage villages, forts and castles, the Fujairah museum, archaeological sites, spectator sports such as bullfighting and boat racing, and excellent shopping at low prices add to the tourist experience. Tourism resources in Fujairah were initially categorised into three groups: natural, cultural and built-up resources. These resources were input to a geodatabase using a Geographic Information System. The locations of those tourism resources and land use in Fujairah in general were mapped. Next, SimCLIM software was used to project climate change effects in the short term (to 2030) and long term (2070) using 1990 as the baseline. These projections incorporated changes in temperature, sea levels, precipitation and other climate variables. Based on the A1FI (fossil intensive) emission scenario with a high level of climate sensitivity results revealed, for example, that average air temperatures in Fujairah are predicted to increase by more than 5°C by 2070. In addition, the recurrence frequency of an average maximum daily temperature over a 7-day consecutive period of more than 45°C may increase seven-fold by 2030. These and other projected results were then used inside the Rapid Assessment Program to assess the potential impacts of those effects on the emirate’s tourism resources. The results show that climate change effects will threaten tourism resources in Fujairah in multiple ways. The predicted increase in temperature and the acidification of the ocean will impact tourism resources most severely. These impacts can be attributed to the fact that high temperatures are already problematic for tourism in the region, while coral reefs are vulnerable to ocean acidification. Next, an approach for monitoring the temporal changes occurring to the tourism resources in Fujairah was introduced. Because effects are sometimes minimal in the short term, relying on human observation is impractical; a Terrestrial Laser Scanning based technique was employed for micro change detection. 3 All the methods described above were combined in a framework that can be used in a generic way by developing countries. The applicability of the approach was tested and validated using data from Turkey. The results of this research can be used by decision-making authorities in developing countries to monitor their tourism resources and develop adaptive and mitigation measures to maintain and sustain those resources in the face of climate change impacts. Directions for possible future research are also presented. 4 Acknowledgements The author is very grateful to the UAE Government for their generous sponsorship; His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Hamad Al Sharqi, Crown Prince of Fujairah, for his kind encouragement and support; and Fujairah Statistical Centre, Fujairah Municipality and Fujairah Tourism and Antiquities Authority for their support and data providing for this research. Further, the author wishes to express his deepest gratitude to his principal supervisor Dr Colin Arrowsmith and associate supervisor Dr David Silcock for their support, encouragement and invaluable advice they provided throughout my time as their student. Dr Colin was always there when I needed him and he cared so much about my work, and responded to my questions and queries so promptly. Dr David helped me a lot with his valuable suggestions and constructive criticism. Also, the author appreciated the friendly advice and support from his colleagues Seyedhossein Pourali and Fahim Alhibci. Completing this work would have been all the more difficult were it not for the professional thesis editing services provided by Dr Campbell Aitken of Express Editing Writing and Research. He ensured that the language, style and format of the thesis suited its purpose and readership. Finally, the author would like to express his thanks and his debt to his parents, who were always praying for his success, and to his wife who was company for him throughout his research, and for all their patience, support and encouragement. 5 List of Abbreviations ALS Airborne Laser Scanners ALSM Airborne Laser Swath Mapping AM/FM Automated Mapping/ Facilities Management CAD Computer-Aided Design CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project COHESIE (Dutch) COmmunicatiemiddel voor HErsturcturering in Steden in een Interactieve contExt – a communication tool for interactive urban redevelopment CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia) DEM Digital Elevation Model DPSIR (Framework) Driver-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses FAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation FAR IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report FIMF Fujairah International Monodrama Festival FTAA Fujairah Tourism and Antique Authority GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GCM Global Climate Models GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National Income GEV Generalized Extreme Value GHG Greenhouse Gas GIS Geographical Information System GPS Global Positioning System HDI Human Development Index IMF International Monetary Fund IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LiDAR Light Detection and Ranging LIS Land Information System LocCLIM Local Climate LULC Land Use and Land Cover MAGICC Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change MSL Mean Sea Level 6 NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NOAA The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PET Potential Evapotranspiration RAP Rapid Assessment Program RCM Regional Climate Model RP Return Period SimCLIM™ Climate simulation software SLR Sea Level Rise SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SSGI Sites of Special Geological Interest SST Sea Surface Temperature TAR IPCC’s Third Assessment Report TLS Terrestrial Laser Scanning TOPIC Thematic Orientation on Project definition in an Interactive Context UAE United Arab Emirates UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UNDP The United Nations Development Programme UNEP The United Nations Environmental Program UNFCCC The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNWTO United Nations World Tourism Organisation VLM Vertical Land Movement WCRP World Climate Research Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization WRI World Research Institute WTTC World Travel and Tourism Council 7 Table of Contents Declaration ............................................................................................................................................................. 1 Abstract .................................................................................................................................................................