The Urban Book Series

Editorial Board Fatemeh Farnaz Arefian, University of Newcastle, Singapore, Singapore; Silk Cities & Bartlett Development Planning Unit, UCL, London, UK Michael Batty, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL, London, UK Simin Davoudi, Planning & Landscape Department GURU, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK Geoffrey DeVerteuil, School of Planning and Geography, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK Andrew Kirby, New College, , Phoenix, AZ, USA Karl Kropf, Department of Planning, Headington Campus, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK Karen Lucas, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Marco Maretto, DICATeA, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Parma, Parma, Italy Fabian Neuhaus, Faculty of Environmental Design, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada Steffen Nijhuis, Architecture and the Built Environment, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands Vitor Manuel Aráujo de Oliveira , Porto University, Porto, Portugal Christopher Silver, College of Design, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Giuseppe Strappa, Facoltà di Architettura, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Roma, Italy Igor Vojnovic, Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA Jeremy W. R. Whitehand, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK Claudia Yamu, Department of Spatial Planning and Environment, University of Groningen, Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands The Urban Book Series is a resource for urban studies and geography research worldwide. It provides a unique and innovative resource for the latest developments in the field, nurturing a comprehensive and encompassing publication venue for urban studies, urban geography, planning and regional development. The series publishes peer-reviewed volumes related to urbanization, sustainabil- ity, urban environments, sustainable urbanism, governance, globalization, urban and sustainable development, spatial and area studies, urban management, transport systems, urban infrastructure, urban dynamics, green cities and urban landscapes. It also invites research which documents urbanization processes and urban dynamics on a national, regional and local level, welcoming case studies, as well as comparative and applied research. The series will appeal to urbanists, geographers, planners, engineers, architects, policy makers, and to all of those interested in a wide-ranging overview of contemporary urban studies and innovations in the field. It accepts monographs, edited volumes and textbooks. Now Indexed by Scopus!

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/14773 Zoé A. Hamstead • David M. Iwaniec • Timon McPhearson • Marta Berbés-Blázquez • Elizabeth M. Cook • Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson Editors

Resilient Urban Futures

123 Editors Zoé A. Hamstead David M. Iwaniec Urban and Regional Planning Urban Studies Institute State University of New York Georgia State University Buffalo, NY, USA Atlanta, GA, USA

Timon McPhearson Marta Berbés-Blázquez Urban Systems Lab School for the Future of Innovation New School in Society New York, NY, USA Arizona State University Tempe, AZ, USA Elizabeth M. Cook Department of Environmental Science Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson Barnard College International Institute of Tropical Forestry New York, NY, USA USDA Forest Service Rio Piedras, PR, USA

ISSN 2365-757X ISSN 2365-7588 (electronic) The Urban Book Series ISBN 978-3-030-63130-7 ISBN 978-3-030-63131-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63131-4

© This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply 2021, corrected publication 2021. This book is an open access publication. Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adap- tation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publi- cation does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Acknowledgments

The editors are grateful for the creativity, insights, and dedication of many people who contributed to this volume and the Urban Resilience to Extremes (UREx) Sustainability Research Network (SRN) project as a whole. We would like to thank all of the contributors to this volume, for sharing their conceptual and method- ological frameworks that guide urban practice toward creating resilient and equitable urban futures. We are indebted to Lanika Sanders and Rakshanda Nagaraj, who carefully administered the process of compiling and copy-editing this work and without whom we would not have kept our deadlines. Twenty peer reviewers, including a student review panel, helped to improve the quality of the chapter manuscripts. The leadership and mentorship of Nancy Grimm and Chuck Redman have been invaluable to this project. In particular, their support of junior faculty, post-doctoral fellows and student trainees activated a substantial cohort of inter- disciplinary researchers in cultivating an international community of practice around building more resilient and equitable futures. Far too many people to name co-created and participated in future scenarios workshops in Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Hermosillo, Mexico; Miami, Florida, USA; New York, New York, USA; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Portland, Oregon, USA; Syracuse, New York, USA; San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA; and Valdivia, Chile. Over 220 practitioners and 180 researchers from 21 institutions in these cities dedicated their creativity, time, and expertise to building the resilience, future, and city-making knowledge base docu- mented in this volume. We are grateful to the National Science Foundation which supported the UREx SRN via grant no. SES 1444755, GCR-1934933 (SETS Convergence) as well as the Long-Term Ecological Research Program Baltimore Study (BES) DEB-1637661, the Central Arizona-Phoenix (CEB-1637590) and the Chilean Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation Ministry of Chile (CONICYT-FONDECYT 3150290). Finally, we are grateful to our families for their support, kindness, not to mention patience with our travel schedules. They provide the grounding for this challenging, important work in building more equitable and resilient urban futures in the face of .

v Contents

1 A Framework for Resilient Urban Futures ...... 1 David M. Iwaniec, Nancy B. Grimm, Timon McPhearson, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Elizabeth M. Cook, and Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson 2 How We Got Here: Producing Climate Inequity and Vulnerability to Urban Weather Extremes ...... 11 Zoé A. Hamstead 3 Social, Ecological, and Technological Strategies for Climate Adaptation ...... 29 Yeowon Kim, Lelani M. Mannetti, David M. Iwaniec, Nancy B. Grimm, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, and Samuel Markolf 4 Mapping Vulnerability to Weather Extremes: Heat and Flood Assessment Approaches ...... 47 Zoé A. Hamstead and Jason Sauer 5 Producing and Communicating Flood Risk: A Knowledge System Analysis of FEMA Flood Maps in New York City ...... 67 Robert Hobbins, Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson, and Clark Miller 6 Positive Futures ...... 85 David M. Iwaniec, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Elizabeth M. Cook, Nancy B. Grimm, Lelani M. Mannetti, Timon McPhearson, and Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson 7 Setting the Stage for Co-Production ...... 99 Elizabeth M. Cook, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Lelani M. Mannetti, Nancy B. Grimm, David M. Iwaniec, and Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson

vii viii Contents

8 Assessing Future Resilience, Equity, and Sustainability in Scenario Planning ...... 113 Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Nancy B. Grimm, Elizabeth M. Cook, David M. Iwaniec, Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson, Vivian Hobbins, and Darin Wahl 9 Modeling Urban Futures: Data-Driven Scenarios of Climate Change and Vulnerability in Cities ...... 129 L. Ortiz, A. Mustafa, B. Rosenzweig, Rocio Carrero, and Timon McPhearson 10 Visualizing Urban Social–Ecological–Technological Systems ...... 145 Daniel Sauter, Jaskirat Randhawa, Claudia Tomateo, and Timon McPhearson 11 Anticipatory Resilience Bringing Back the Future into Urban Planning and Knowledge Systems ...... 159 Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson, Kaethe Selkirk, Robert Hobbins, Clark Miller, Mathieu Feagan, David M. Iwaniec, Thaddeus R. Miller, and Elizabeth M. Cook 12 A Vision for Resilient Urban Futures ...... 173 Timon McPhearson, David M. Iwaniec, Zoé A. Hamstead, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Elizabeth M. Cook, Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson, Lelani Mannetti, and Nancy Grimm Correction to: Modeling Urban Futures: Data-Driven Scenarios of Climate Change and Vulnerability in Cities ...... C1 L. Ortiz, A. Mustafa, B. Rosenzweig, Rocio Carrero, and Timon McPhearson

Index ...... 187 Editors and Contributors

About the Editors

Zoé A. Hamstead is an Assistant Professor of Environmental Planning at the University at Buffalo and Director of the Community Resilience Lab. Her research builds on interdisciplinary approaches in urban planning, geography, and urban ecology to support climate equity and adaptive climate planning approaches. Dr. Hamstead teaches courses in environmental planning, environmental justice, economic concepts, geographic analysis of environmental problems, and engaged community energy studios. She holds a Ph.D. in Urban & Public Policy from The New School, a Master’s in City & Regional Planning from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and a Bachelor of Liberal Arts from St. John’s College.

David M. Iwaniec is an Assistant Professor of Urban Sustainability at the Urban Studies Institute, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University. He is a sustainability scientist researching anticipatory and systems approaches to advance urban sustainability, resilience, and justice. His work focuses on the co-development of scenarios and transition pathways for positive futures of urban transformation.

Timon McPhearson is Director of the Urban Systems Lab and Associate Professor of Urban Ecology at The New School. He is a Research Fellow at The Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies and Stockholm Resilience Centre and a member of the IPCC.

Marta Berbés-Blázquez is an Assistant Professor at the School for the Future of Innovation at Arizona State University. Her research considers the human dimen- sions of social-ecological transformations in rural and urban with an emphasis on vulnerable populations. Her work is informed by resilience thinking and political ecology at a conceptual level, and it is practically oriented toward qualitative, participatory, and anticipatory research methods. Specific topics of

ix x Editors and Contributors expertise include power dynamics and access in ecosystem services, scenario planning, resource extraction, eco-health, climate change adaptation, and transfor- mation.

Elizabeth M. Cook is an Assistant Professor at Barnard College in the Department of Environmental Science. She is an urban ecosystem ecologist and her research focuses on future urban sustainability and human–environment feedbacks in urban and nearby native ecosystems. She conducts research on sustainability and resi- lience planning through participatory scenario development with local stakeholders. Her work seeks to understand cities as social–ecological–technological systems with a comparative approach in Latin American and U.S. cities. Cook holds a Ph.D. from Arizona State University and a Bachelor of Arts from Wellesley College.

Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson is a Research Social Scientist in the USDA Forest Service’s International Institute of Tropical Forestry, in Río Piedras, Puerto Rico. She studies urban sustainability governance, including the policy networks, knowledge systems, anticipatory capacities, and strategies to advance sustainability, resilience, and equity. She is also actively involved in transdisciplinary platforms to facilitate the co-production of futures and transition pathways in the US and Latin American cities. Muñoz-Erickson leads the International Urban Field Station and the San Juan ULTRA and is also Co-PI of the National Science Foundation Urban Resilience to Extreme Events Sustainability Research Network (UREx SRN) and the SETS Convergence project.

Contributors

Marta Berbés-Blázquez School for the Future of Innovation in Society, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Rocio Carrero Urban Systems Lab, The New School, New York, NY, USA Elizabeth M. Cook Department of Environmental Science, Barnard College, New York City, NY, USA Mathieu Feagan School for the Future of Innovation in Society, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Nancy Grimm School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Arizona, USA; Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Nancy B. Grimm School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Zoé A. Hamstead Department of Urban and Regional Planning, School of Architecture and Planning, University at Buffalo, State University of New York, Buffalo, New York, NY, USA Editors and Contributors xi

Robert Hobbins School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA David M. Iwaniec Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Urban Studies Institute, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA Yeowon Kim Julia Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Lelani Mannetti Urban Studies Institute, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Georgia, USA Lelani M. Mannetti Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Urban Studies Institute, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA Samuel Markolf Julia Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Timon McPhearson The New School, Urban Systems Lab, New York, NY, USA; Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, USA; Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden Clark Miller School for the Future of Innovation in Society, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Thaddeus R. Miller School of Public Policy, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, USA Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, Río Piedras, PR, USA A. Mustafa Urban Systems Lab, The New School, New York, NY, USA L. Ortiz Urban Systems Lab, The New School, New York, NY, USA Jaskirat Randhawa The New School, Urban Systems Lab, New York, NY, USA B. Rosenzweig Environmental Science, Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Sarah Lawrence College, Bronxville, NY, USA Jason Sauer School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Daniel Sauter The New School, Urban Systems Lab, New York, NY, USA Kaethe Selkirk School for the Future of Innovation in Society, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Claudia Tomateo The New School, Urban Systems Lab, New York, NY, USA Vivian Hobbins Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora, Sonora, Mexico, USA Darin Wahl Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund, Sweden