The Urban Book Series Editorial Board Fatemeh Farnaz Arefian, University of Newcastle, Singapore, Singapore; Silk Cities & Bartlett Development Planning Unit, UCL, London, UK Michael Batty, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL, London, UK Simin Davoudi, Planning & Landscape Department GURU, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK Geoffrey DeVerteuil, School of Planning and Geography, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK Andrew Kirby, New College, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ, USA Karl Kropf, Department of Planning, Headington Campus, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK Karen Lucas, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Marco Maretto, DICATeA, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Parma, Parma, Italy Fabian Neuhaus, Faculty of Environmental Design, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada Steffen Nijhuis, Architecture and the Built Environment, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands Vitor Manuel Aráujo de Oliveira , Porto University, Porto, Portugal Christopher Silver, College of Design, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Giuseppe Strappa, Facoltà di Architettura, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Roma, Italy Igor Vojnovic, Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA Jeremy W. R. Whitehand, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK Claudia Yamu, Department of Spatial Planning and Environment, University of Groningen, Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands The Urban Book Series is a resource for urban studies and geography research worldwide. It provides a unique and innovative resource for the latest developments in the field, nurturing a comprehensive and encompassing publication venue for urban studies, urban geography, planning and regional development. The series publishes peer-reviewed volumes related to urbanization, sustainabil- ity, urban environments, sustainable urbanism, governance, globalization, urban and sustainable development, spatial and area studies, urban management, transport systems, urban infrastructure, urban dynamics, green cities and urban landscapes. It also invites research which documents urbanization processes and urban dynamics on a national, regional and local level, welcoming case studies, as well as comparative and applied research. The series will appeal to urbanists, geographers, planners, engineers, architects, policy makers, and to all of those interested in a wide-ranging overview of contemporary urban studies and innovations in the field. It accepts monographs, edited volumes and textbooks. Now Indexed by Scopus! More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/14773 Zoé A. Hamstead • David M. Iwaniec • Timon McPhearson • Marta Berbés-Blázquez • Elizabeth M. Cook • Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson Editors Resilient Urban Futures 123 Editors Zoé A. Hamstead David M. Iwaniec Urban and Regional Planning Urban Studies Institute State University of New York Georgia State University Buffalo, NY, USA Atlanta, GA, USA Timon McPhearson Marta Berbés-Blázquez Urban Systems Lab School for the Future of Innovation New School in Society New York, NY, USA Arizona State University Tempe, AZ, USA Elizabeth M. Cook Department of Environmental Science Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson Barnard College International Institute of Tropical Forestry New York, NY, USA USDA Forest Service Rio Piedras, PR, USA ISSN 2365-757X ISSN 2365-7588 (electronic) The Urban Book Series ISBN 978-3-030-63130-7 ISBN 978-3-030-63131-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63131-4 © This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply 2021, corrected publication 2021. This book is an open access publication. 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The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publi- cation does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Acknowledgments The editors are grateful for the creativity, insights, and dedication of many people who contributed to this volume and the Urban Resilience to Extremes (UREx) Sustainability Research Network (SRN) project as a whole. We would like to thank all of the contributors to this volume, for sharing their conceptual and method- ological frameworks that guide urban practice toward creating resilient and equitable urban futures. We are indebted to Lanika Sanders and Rakshanda Nagaraj, who carefully administered the process of compiling and copy-editing this work and without whom we would not have kept our deadlines. Twenty peer reviewers, including a student review panel, helped to improve the quality of the chapter manuscripts. The leadership and mentorship of Nancy Grimm and Chuck Redman have been invaluable to this project. In particular, their support of junior faculty, post-doctoral fellows and student trainees activated a substantial cohort of inter- disciplinary researchers in cultivating an international community of practice around building more resilient and equitable futures. Far too many people to name co-created and participated in future scenarios workshops in Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Hermosillo, Mexico; Miami, Florida, USA; New York, New York, USA; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Portland, Oregon, USA; Syracuse, New York, USA; San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA; and Valdivia, Chile. Over 220 practitioners and 180 researchers from 21 institutions in these cities dedicated their creativity, time, and expertise to building the resilience, future, and city-making knowledge base docu- mented in this volume. We are grateful to the National Science Foundation which supported the UREx SRN via grant no. SES 1444755, GCR-1934933 (SETS Convergence) as well as the Long-Term Ecological Research Program Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES) DEB-1637661, the Central Arizona-Phoenix (CEB-1637590) and the Chilean Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation Ministry of Chile (CONICYT-FONDECYT 3150290). Finally, we are grateful to our families for their support, kindness, not to mention patience with our travel schedules. They provide the grounding for this challenging, important work in building more equitable and resilient urban futures in the face of climate change. v Contents 1 A Framework for Resilient Urban Futures ................... 1 David M. Iwaniec, Nancy B. Grimm, Timon McPhearson, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Elizabeth M. Cook, and Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson 2 How We Got Here: Producing Climate Inequity and Vulnerability to Urban Weather Extremes ................ 11 Zoé A. Hamstead 3 Social, Ecological, and Technological Strategies for Climate Adaptation .................................. 29 Yeowon Kim, Lelani M. Mannetti, David M. Iwaniec, Nancy B. Grimm, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, and Samuel Markolf 4 Mapping Vulnerability to Weather Extremes: Heat and Flood Assessment Approaches .................................. 47 Zoé A. Hamstead and Jason Sauer 5 Producing and Communicating Flood Risk: A Knowledge System Analysis of FEMA Flood Maps in New York City ............. 67 Robert Hobbins, Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson, and Clark Miller 6 Positive Futures ........................................ 85 David M. Iwaniec, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Elizabeth M. Cook, Nancy B. Grimm, Lelani M. Mannetti, Timon McPhearson, and Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson 7 Setting the Stage for Co-Production ........................ 99 Elizabeth M. Cook, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Lelani M. Mannetti, Nancy B. Grimm, David M. Iwaniec, and Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson vii viii Contents 8 Assessing Future Resilience, Equity, and Sustainability in Scenario Planning .................................... 113 Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Nancy B. Grimm, Elizabeth M. Cook, David M. Iwaniec, Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson, Vivian Hobbins, and Darin Wahl 9 Modeling Urban Futures: Data-Driven Scenarios of Climate Change and Vulnerability in Cities ......................... 129 L. Ortiz, A. Mustafa, B. Rosenzweig, Rocio Carrero, and Timon McPhearson 10 Visualizing Urban Social–Ecological–Technological