*EDINBVRGH* Item no THE CITY OF EDINBURGH COUNCIL Outcome of the Consultation Process for the Proposal to close Drumbrae Primary School Affecting Clermiston and East Craigs Primary Schools and Craigmount and The Royal High Schools The City of Edinburgh Council 17 December 2009 I Purpose of report 1.I The purpose of this report is to advise on the outcome of the statutory consultation exercise in respect of the proposal to close Drumbrae Primary School and to undertake associated primary and secondary school catchment changes. The report responds to the main issues raised during the consultation and provides recommendations on how to proceed. 2 Summary 2.1 The Council conducted a statutory consultation in autumn 2009 on a proposal to close Drumbrae Primary School. Opposition to the proposed closure was expressed during the consultation process through deputations to Committee, by written representations and verbally at the two public meetings. The issues raised by respondents are addressed in detail in the main report and covered the following areas: e Concern that the closure of Drumbrae could leave the area short of capacity in the future; e A view that Drumbrae Primary School is considered to be in good condition and that there is no justification for closure; e The school is a well used community facility outside of school hours; e Feelings that pupils at Drumbrae could be disadvantaged by transferring to a school where class sizes will be larger and where pupils may not receive the same level of teaching support; e A concern that Clermiston is too far away and that potential routes are unsafe; e Concern that pupils at the two receiving schools could be disadvantaged by an inflow of pupils from Drumbrae leading to larger rolls; and e Concern about pressure on school facilities in the receiving schools. 1 2.2 After taking account of the representations made and the issues arising, the Director of Children and Families still considers that the case for closure substantially outweighs the objections made. The reasons for reaching such a decision are summarised below. 0 Within the Clermiston/Corstorphine area there are over 440 spare places; 0 The roll at Drumbrae Primary School has dropped to 71 pupils resulting in the lowest school occupancy in the city (22%); In 2008 the school only captured 41 % of its catchment pupil population; Costs per pupil at Drumbrae Primary School are now running at f7,196 per annum compared to the city average of €3,709 (using 2009 figures); 0 There is scope to make alternative community re-provision at Fox Covert Primary School and other local venues. 2.3 Implementation of the proposal would generate f260,OOO of net recurring revenue savings and release a site for redevelopment that is valued at f 927,000 (net of demolition costs). 2.4 In order to implement the proposed closure it is necessary to deliver a new and expanded nursery with improved facilities at Clermiston Primary School; undertake works to return existing nursery spaces at Clermiston to classroom use and install a new pedestrian crossing on Drumbrae drive. 3 Main report 3.1 The consultation process for all the four closure proposals is set out in an accompanying report on this agenda. A summary of the proposal for Drumbrae is set out in Appendix 1. Appendices 2 and 3 provide a record of the two public meetings held for the Drumbrae proposal. 3.2 A total of 272 representations were received with the majority objecting to the proposal. Most responses were made by residents/parents living in the area. This includes objections and supporting petition from the “Save Drumbrae” campaign with 1,616 signatories and 134 standard letters (forming part of the 272 responses received) objecting to the proposals. 3.3 Drumbrae Parent Council raised concerns over the financial implications of the proposals. Clermiston Parent Council and East Craigs Parent Council felt that difficulties would arise from accommodating extra pupils at both receiving schools and that their educational development would be adversely affected by the proposals. Various submissions or joint submissions were made by local MPs and MSP’s opposing the closure. 3.4 A variety of concerns were raised relating to the potential loss of community facilities at Drumbrae Primary School. Community groups and other organisations that made submissions included Drumbrae Community Council, Girlguiding, Clermiston and Drumbrae Children’s Gala, Drumbrae Go-operative Guild and St Andrew’s Clermiston Church of Scotland. 3.5 A number of issues were raised during the consultation process; the remainder of this section sets out the main issues together with the Council response. A 2 summary of each response is presented in Appendix 4 with copies of the full submissions being available in the Elected Members lounge for reference. Appendices 5 and 6 respectively show the proposed primary and secondary school catchment boundaries. Issues Raised Demographic Considerations 3.6 Several respondents including the parent councils felt that the closure of Drumbrae could lead to longer term capacity problems due to anticipated demographic changes and housing developments in the area. Respondents made the following particular comments: The General Register Office for Scotland is predicting that by 20211 the population of Edinburgh could rise by 20-22%; In north-west Edinburgh extra housing is proposed and resultant pupil generation could take local schools over capacity; * It was expressed that changes to the particular demographic profile of the area could potentially make the population increase much larger; e Particular reference was made to the area’s ageing population and that residents may move on and free up family sized housing; Additional capital spend (extensions or new school) could possibly be required within a relatively short period to provide extra capacity; and Does the proposal take account of any increased demand for nursery places. Council Response - General Register Office for Scotland Projected Growth 3.7 The Consultation Paper referred to the 2006 based General Register Office for Scotland projections which show the number of 5-1 1 years increasing by 5% in the 5 years from 2008 to 2013, and then growing over the next five years by a further 15%. 3.8 Where this growth will materialise and whether it will be sustained as projected in the longer term is difficult to predict with any certainty. The most up to date information at Council level is the 2008 population estimates which show the number of births continuing to increase. The implications of rising birth rates are increasing demand for school places which could peak with an additional 5,000 pupils across the city by 2020. Council Response - School Capacity and Catchment Pupils 3.9 The combined capacity of the closing and receiving schools is currently 1,027 pupils. Revised capacities shown in Table 3.1 below take account of the loss of capacity at Drumbrae (306 places) and proposed works at Clermiston to increase the capacity from 306 to 379. Catchment data is based on 2008 figures but it should be noted school rolls have fallen at the affected schools by 42 pupils based on 2009 start of session rolls. 3 Table 3.1 Capacity in the Proposed Clermiston and East Craigs Catchments Proposed Clermiston/East Craigs 794" 705 89 790 3.10 In the proposed Clermiston and East Craigs catchment areas 21 % of pupils (169) currently attend other schools outwith the immediate area and an assumption is made that a similar capture rate of 79% would continue if Drumbrae closes. This outflow of pupils is partly compensated by pupils attending from outside the affected catchments (1 I%). 3.1 1 The Cala housing development for 277 units (a mix of houses and flats) is ongoing and at April 2009 it was one third completed, having generated six primary aged pupils so far. A further seventeen pupils are predicted to be generated from the remainder of the development. A further development at Bughtlin Market is expected to generate a further ten pupils. These developments are expected to account for part of the General Register Office for Scotland projected growth at a local level. 3.12 The graph below illustrates the application of precisely the same profile of increase to the local base population as the city wide General Register Office for Scotland forecasts Le. an increase of 21 % by 2021. It is based on the assumption that the trend of capturing 79% of the catchment population continues. The spare capacity between the catchment population and the capacity would be available for non-catchment placing requests into the schools (current non-catchment requests coming into the two schools amount to 84 pupils) and/or an increased catchment capture rate. Figure 3.1 : Projected Catchment Rolls at East Craigs and Clermiston Projected Catchment Roll from revised Clermiston and East Craigs Cluster and Available Capacity 825 800 775 7% Y 725 'Z 700 ' 675 650 625 600 575 550 m Available Capacity for Placing Requests and hither Catchment Growth a Projected Roll fmn Catchment Pupil Population (based on current 79% capture rate) 4 3.13 This shows that based on a 21% growth in the levels of catchment population, on the capture rate used above in all years there is predicted capacity for placing requests, but that this would reduce in the period to 2022. Council Response - Longer Term Nursery Provision 3.1 4 Nursery provision is delivered by the Council and by partner providers. There are no catchment boundaries and subject to places being available parents are free to seek places of their choosing. Extra nursery provision is being made at Clermiston and additional afternoon provision will be provided at Fox Covert. Should demand for places increase locally then the Council will seek to work with partner providers to deliver more places.