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Fatality Trends in United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, 1948-1998

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Fatality Trends in United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, 1948-1998 ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTION Fatality Trends in United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, 1948-1998 Benjamin Seet, FRCS, MPH Context The rising number of deaths among United Nations (UN) peacekeeping Gilbert M. Burnham, MD, PhD forces after the Cold War has made some troop-contributing countries hesitant to participate in peacekeeping operations. While the number and scale of missions have increased, no data have demonstrated a parallel increase in risks to peace- HEN UNITED NATIONS keepers. (UN) Peacekeeping Op- Objective To determine the association of characteristics of UN peacekeeping op- erations was awarded erations with risks and mortality rates among UN peacekeeping forces in both the Cold the 1988 Nobel Peace War and post-Cold War periods. WPrize, Secretary-General Javier Perez de Design, Setting, and Participants Descriptive analysis of 1559 personnel deaths Cuellar, paid tribute to the 733 “blue during 49 UN peacekeeping missions from 1948-1998 based on the casualty data- helmets” who had lost their lives over base maintained by Department of Peacekeeping Operations, UN Headquarters. 1 40 years “in the service of peace.” Just Main Outcome Measures Number and percentage of deaths by circumstance, to- 1 decade later, the total number of tal crude death rate, and crude death rate and relative risk of death by circumstance peacekeepers killed in this “grand ex- (hostile acts, unintentional violence, and illness or other causes) and time period (Cold periment, in which soldiers were used War vs post–Cold War), geographic region, and nature of peacekeeping response; and as a catalyst of peace, rather than as in- regression analysis of mission variables (strength, duration, and humanitarian man- struments of war,”2 had more than date) associated with total number of deaths. doubled, exceeding 1500 by the fifti- Results More deaths have occurred among UN peacekeeping forces in the past eth anniversary of UN Peacekeeping decade alone than in the previous 40 years of UN peacekeeping (807 vs 752), but Operations in 1998.3 This mirrored the crude death rates did not differ significantly by time period (Cold War vs post–Cold rise in casualties and fatalities re- War, 21.8 vs 21.2 deaths per 10 000 person-years; P = .58), level of peacekeeping ported among field workers from dif- response, or for geographic regions other than East Europe and Central America, ferent humanitarian organizations.4-6 where rates were lower (P,.001 for both regions). Unintentional violence accounted for 41.2% of deaths, followed by hostile acts (36.1%), and illness or other causes Two reasons have been given for (22.7%). Deaths from hostile acts increased after the Cold War (relative risk [RR] this large increase in peacekeeping 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-1.88), while rates for deaths caused by fatalities. First, the increase in number unintentional violence decreased (RR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.94) but remain high, and scale of peacekeeping operations particularly in the Middle East and Asia (RR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.15-1.69). Regression conducted since the end of the Cold analysis showed a significant association between number of deaths and the strength War7-10; and second, the changes in (P,.001) and duration (P,.001) of a peacekeeping mission. nature and characteristics of peace- Conclusion The increase in number of deaths among UN peacekeeping personnel keeping missions that have made them since 1990 can be attributed to the increased number and scale of missions after the more dangerous with higher fatality Cold War rather than increased RR of death. Post–Cold War peacekeeping personnel risks.10-12 have a higher risk of dying from hostile acts in missions where more force is required. While there are increased concerns In missions providing or facilitating humanitarian assistance, both the RR of deaths voiced for the safety of UN peace- from all causes and deaths from hostile acts are increased. keepers, little is known about actual JAMA. 2000;284:598-603 www.jama.com risks and any changes in these over time. By early 2000, there were more METHODS Author Affiliations: Center for Refugee and Disas- ter Studies, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Pub- than 30000 uniformed and civilian Study Design lic Health, Baltimore, Md (Drs Seet and Burnham); UN personnel deployed in 17 peace- Fatality data for all reported deaths from Dr Seet was formerly with the Medical Support Unit, 8 Department of Peacekeeping Operations, United keeping missions around the globe. UN peacekeeping missions from 1948 Nations. We undertook this study of peace- to August 1998 were obtained from the Corresponding Author and Reprints: Gilbert M. Burn- ham, MD, PhD, Center for Refugee and Disaster Stud- keeper deaths to assess trends, factors, casualty database maintained by the ies, 615 N Wolfe St, Baltimore, MD 21205 (e-mail: and risks. Situation Center and the Medical Sup- [email protected]). 598 JAMA, August 2, 2000—Vol 284, No. 5 (Reprinted) ©2000 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. Downloaded From: https://jamanetwork.com/ on 09/28/2021 FATALITY TRENDS IN UN PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS port Unit, UN Department of Peace- Geographic Region. For analysis, strength and total mission duration. For keeping Operations, New York, NY. peacekeeping operations were grouped ongoing missions, strength as of Au- Casualty data were based on indi- as Africa, Eastern Europe, Middle East gust 1998 was used. United Nations vidual reports submitted by the field mis- (including Cyprus), Asia, and Central electoral monitors were excluded from sion headquarters within 24 hours of America. the denominator, as they were gener- each incident, a requirement for all mis- Level, Strength, and Duration of ally deployed for short periods, often sion-related fatalities, serious injuries, Peacekeeping Response. Level 1 re- less than a month. Data for locally con- and illnesses involving UN personnel, sponse comprises traditional peacekeep- tracted civilian staff were unreliable and both international and local.13 Deaths ing missions involving only unarmed excluded from analysis. among locally contracted civilian staff military observers or civilian police Relative risks (RRs) of death were cal- may have been underreported. Aggre- monitors.16 Level 2 responses encom- culated and presented at the 95% con- gated data available included fatality pass both traditional and multidisci- fidence interval (CI), and the indepen- counts by individual missions and the plinary missions deploying armed mili- dent effects of selected mission variables number of deaths for each incident cat- tary units, for example, in operations like on the number of deaths were analyzed egory as initially reported. Mission- interposition of peacekeeping forces be- using multiple linear regression models related variables were obtained from of- tween belligerent forces or their preven- on Intercooled Stata, version 6.0 (Stata ficial records and publications of the UN tive deployment against escalation of Corporation, College Station, Tex). Con- Department of Peacekeeping Opera- hostilities.16 Level 3 response (peace en- fidence intervals were determined for RRs tions.8,14 Independent variables that were forcement) comprises operations con- to indicate the level of precision within assessed were circumstances and time pe- ducted with a mandate authorizing use sample comparisons but not for the rates riod (before or after 1990) of death, geo- of all measures necessary, including mili- that were calculated for the total num- graphic region of mission, and level and tary force, to maintain or restore inter- ber of peacekeepers, which represent the duration of peacekeeping response. national peace and security in accor- universe of a unique sample. Circumstances of Death. Hostile acts dance with Article 42, Chapter VII, of were defined as deaths from inten- the UN Charter.16,17 When the mission RESULTS tional violence of political, criminal, or level changed as a result of amend- We analyzed 1559 deaths from 49 UN of undetermined hostile origin; the UN ments to the mandate, the higher level peacekeeping missions. A chronologi- classification for deaths due to acci- was used. A humanitarian mandate is de- cal list of all missions up to August 1998, dents was defined as deaths from un- fined as the specific task given to peace- including estimated mission-specific intentional violence of all causes; and keeping missions to provide or to facili- fatality rates, is presented in TABLE 1. illness and other causes as deaths from tate the delivery of humanitarian A total of 22 deaths (1.4%) was excluded disease, “natural causes,” and un- assistance, which is common in com- from analysis because they involved UN known causes. plex humanitarian emergencies occur- headquarters personnel, who were not Time Period. 1990 was arbitrarily ring in unstable situations with poor se- part of the peacekeeping force, or did taken to divide the Cold War and post– curity. Strength of mission was not occur in peacekeeping operations. Cold War periods. For missions that ex- determined by number of troops. Du- In 16 peacekeeping missions, there were tended across this time line, the as- ration of mission was measured from no reported deaths. The highest num- sumption was made that distribution of first deployment of all UN peacekeep- ber of deaths occurred in Congo deaths was uniform throughout the en- ing personnel or until their replace- (ONUC, 250 deaths), Lebanon (UN tire mission duration. The 1960 United ment by a new UN peacekeeping mis- Interim
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